It took an entire month to happen - but we finally got some quality jump racing this weekend, courtesy of Newbury - and to a lesser extent, Fairyhouse…
Most of the fields at Newburys 2 day meeting were competitive - and for the first time this season, I had some choice on bets I opted for.
Needless to say, I got a number of the choices wrong - but I can work on that
If the opportunities aren’t there, I’m always going to struggle - so it was a relief that a few presented themselves…
Friday
The opening day of the Winter carnival at Newbury, was a cracker - and I had no issue finding a couple of Best bets - supported by a few more for the Matrix…
Pic D’Orhy was the first Best bet to run - and what a performance he put up !
I’d been really impressed by him when he won on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las - and whilst he was competing in a tougher race, I couldn’t understand why he was the outsider of the field.
As hoped, he led from the off, jumping from fence to fence - without an apparent care in the world !
Turning in, it was clear that he was going much better than all of his rivals - and a squeeze from Harry Cobden saw him quicken 5 lengths clear.
There were still 4 fences to jump but it did look a case of how far - and then disaster struck…
I suspect he was simply going too quickly - and rather than jump the fourth last, he tried to hurdle it - with inevitable consequences.
It was such a sickener - and felt completely undeserved, as he was clearly the best horse in the race.
I’m a massive fan of Cobdens (there’s no one I’d rather have on one of the horses) - but I think he got this one wrong.
He should have held onto Pic D’orhy - and let him just pop the fences up the straight.
That said, hindsight is a wonderful thing - and I could understand why he chose to press on (to try and get his rivals in trouble).
Suffice to say, I felt that Harry owed us one - but more on that later…
The second Best bet of the day, was in the closing handicap hurdle.
I sided with Slate House, who was potentially very well handicapped, based on his chase form of a couple of years back.
He travelled through the first part of the race, really sweetly - but after the third last, when push came to shove, he had nothing in the tank.
You have to conclude, that he’s not the horse he once was…
Because I knew he was a risky selection, I covered a couple of others, for the Matrix: AlrightJack and Dolphin Square.
I was sure that the latter would run well - though I felt he might just be vulnerable to a better handicapped horse.
Well, he did run well - and there were no better handicapped horses in the race - so he won !
I had briefly considered putting him up as a Best bet in addition to Slate House - but I decided it against it (a combination of the quick ground and relatively short price).
Another frustrating one…
There should have been a couple of others for the Matrix: L’Homme Presse in the novice handicap chase and Thomas Darby in the stayers hurdle.
However, the former didn’t run on account of the quick ground.
By contrast, quick ground is precisely what Thomas Darby needs - and he produced a lifetime best, to beat On the Blind Side and Paisley Park.
A good day for the Matrix then - if not quite so good for the Best bets…
Saturday
Newburys Saturday card, was probably the best card there has been so far this season - with quality action both over fences and hurdles - and generally good sized, competitive fields.
I had no problem finding 3 Best bets - and arguably should have issued one or two more…
Ofalltheginjoints was the first of them - but he prove disappointing.
Again, I knew he was a risky one (like Slate House on Friday), but I felt there was good reason why he might bounce back and win.
I expected him to at least travel through his race - but he didn’t - and he was beaten before the home straight.
I don’t know what the issue was - though I won’t be surprised, if the next time we see him, he has undergone wind surgery (and if that is the case, I’ll probably struggle to resist suggesting him again !).
I didn’t offer any covering bets for the Matrix - but if I had, they would have included Kapcorse.
I gave him a positive mention on the Live thread, once I had seen him in the paddock - but when a horse hasn’t run for a year, there is always a risk in suggesting him early…
Suffice to say, Paul Nichols had done a great job in getting him ready - and he hacked up in the manner of a very well handicapped horse.
The next Best bet on the day was Annsam.
I’d jumped around on this particular race, driven by a volatile early market.
I could see a case for a few in the race - so I also saved on Boreham Bill, for the Matrix (as he was my original fancy).
My decision to switch to Annsam was a good one - as he ran really well, under an enterprising front running ride.
However, he wasn’t good enough to hold off the challenge of Earlofthecotswolds and Masters Legacy - and could only manage third place.
Still, that was significantly better than Boreham Bill, who is probably still running…
The final Best bet on the day, was my strongest fancy.
Harry Cobden had let us down on Friday - but he got a quick opportunity to atone for that, as he was riding Il Ridoto.
He was a strange one, as a 4 year old in an open handicap - who had only run once before in this country.
My feeling was that he would either hack up - or be sunk without trace - and thankfully, it turned out to be the former !
Cobden was happy to take a lead from a host of front runners - and entering the straight it became quickly apparent that Il Ridoto only needed to jump the fences, in order to win - a bit like Pic D’Orhy on Friday !
However, unlike Pic D’Orhy, Cobden kept hold of him - only jumping into the lead at the second last.
A tidy jump at the last, sealed the deal - and he then sprinted clear, for a very comfortable 6 length win.
It really did look as if he had a stone in hand of his rating - which was precisely what I had hoped !
Needless to say, Harry has been forgiven for Fridays error of judgement and is now back in my good books
There were only a couple more Matrix bets on the day - which I think was probably a mistake…
I’ve changed the way I decide on the Matrix bets, compared to last season - and I don’t think I’m doing it as effectively (despite what results might suggest !)
I should have constructed a Matrix for the Hennessey - but I ran out of time to do that properly.
I’ll be reverting back to my old method, from next Saturday onwards…
Anyway, there were 2 more Matrix bets - and one of them won !
I had a suspicion that Onemorefortheroad might be able to steal the 4 runner Gerry Fielden hurdle, if it became tactical - and that’s exactly what happened.
I’m far from convinced that he was the best horse in the race - but that was irrelevant.
The remaining Matrix bet was in the Rehearsal chase at Newcastle.
I thought Cool Mix would run a good race - and he did.
However, a mistake at the fourth last cost him his chance of winning and he could only plug on for fourth place…
Back at Newbury, Cloudy Glenn was the surprise winner of the Hennessey - which was bad - and good !
It was bad because I didn’t make him an official bet (Best or Matrix) - but good because I was positive about his chances of at least placing - in the preview, in the bet rationale and on the Live thread.
I know that a few of your were on him, which was pleasing - even if I should have encourage a few more to take a risk (via the Matrix)
The other 2 races at Newcastle saw a victory for Winds of Life; and a dead heat for Not so Sleepy.
The latter got a positive mention in the bet rationale email - whilst the former was another winner suggested on the Live thread….
In summary, whilst I didn’t get everything right, it was still a good day for the Best bets, the Matrix and the unofficial bets - so hopefully everyone came out of it in profit.
A few more days like that, will help remind me why I put myself through all the anguish !
Sunday
Fairyhouse provided some high class action on Sunday - even though most of the races weren’t ideal for betting.
The exception was the long distance handicap chase - and I hoped that it provided a very good bet in the shape of Coko Beach.
I felt he was a class above his rivals - and if he stayed the extended trip, then he would win…
And in truth, that’s pretty much how it worked out.
He cruised through the first 3 miles of the race - jumping like a buck and looking like the whole thing was a breeze.
He was still going nicely turning in - but once the pressure was applied, it quickly became apparent that he wasn’t going to last home.
He’ll be dropped back in trip - I’ve no doubt about that - and he could well be up to winning a decent race, assuming he jumps and travels as well as he did today…
He was the only Best bet on the day - but I did offer a few more for the Matrix.
The main one should have been Three Stripe Life in the novice hurdle - but he was withdrawn on account of the ground.
That just left me with Arctic Warrior - one of 3 in the race for Willie Mullins.
Willie was my angle into the contest - but I chose the wrong one.
Arctic Warrior made the running - but was beaten turning in: whilst his stablemate Statuaire, bided her time and came with a late, decisive run.
Fine lines…
It was also a case of fine lines in the novice chase.
I felt that all 6 of the market principals could be given a chance - so it was the betting which encouraged me towards the 2 Gordon Elliott runners.
Grand Pardis jumped poorly and was beaten turning in - but Fury Road looked to have the race won (he traded at 1.15 IR), when Gabynako made a bad mistake at he second last.
However, he didn’t seem keen to go through with his effort - and Beacon Edge ran him down close home…
In the other big race on the card, Honeysuckle confirmed her status as the best hurdler in training, with a scintillating victory.
She looked different class to her rivals - and it would take some imagination, to see her not retaining her crown in March…
TVB.
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