Monday, November 29, 2021

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Fairyhouse

2:05
Coko Beach 0.5pt win 4/1 


Matrix bets

Fairyhouse

1:05
Three Stripe Life 3 units win CEP 5.4 FP 5
Arctic Warrior 1 unit win CEP 29 FP 17

1:35
Grand Paradis 1 unit win CEP 9.2 FP 8
Fury Road 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 10   


I felt like I could have waited all morning, for the markets to be sufficiently strong for me to issue a Best bet…

Even at 10:00, the market for the 2:05 was nowhere near as strong as I would have liked - which is crazy for a race being shown on terrestrial TV, a few hours later.

The price on Coko Beach was still cut by every single bookmaker within 3 mins of me issuing - such is the power of TVB !

Hopefully, most of you got the 4/1 - if you didn’t, I would suggest waiting until close to the off.
It was a similar story with Il Ridoto yesterday - and a few mins before the off, he was trading at a bigger priced than advised in the morning…

Anyway, here’s my thinking behind making him the Best bet - and behind the other Matrix bets that I suggested…


Fairyhouse

I like Three Strip Life best in the Royal Bond (1:05) - but there is too much guesswork required, to make him a Best bet.
His bumper form from last season, is top class - whilst jockey bookings suggest he is Gordon Elliotts main hope.
I think the fav is too short - so that does make this a race I would like to play in.
In addition to Three Stripe Life, I think Arctic Warrior is also worth a play for the Matrix.
He’s more speculative - but worth a small risk at big odds.

The Drinmore (1:35) looks really open.
I’ve no issue with Lifetime Ambition being favourite - though he may be a touch short, in such a strong race.
A case can be made for the top half dozen in the market - and I’ll side with the 2 Gordon Elliott runners, both of which are decent prices…
I have a slight preference for Grand Paradis - but mainly because Davy is on board.
Fury Road has enough ability to go very close - and he looks over-priced to me…

I think Coko Beach is the best bet of the day, in the 2:05.
As I inferred in the preview - I struggle to see him beaten - and the only thing that’s putting me off, is his price !
I would have him close to a 2/1 shot - so 4/1 seems way too big (almost worryingly so !).
The fact is, he’s a class above his rivals.
I’m slightly worried about the trip - but I hope that will be offset by decent ground.
If it goes as planned, he will hack round and win on the bridle - but unfortunately, races don’t always go as planned !
Regardless, I have to make him a Best bet - just with a couple of slight niggles in the back of my mind…

If she’s tuned up, Honeysuckle will win the Hattons Grace (2:40).
She’s the best horse in the race by some margin - and receives weight from her rivals.
The only things that will beat her, is if she’s not fully fit - or if something goes wrong in the race (eg. she falls).
A fully fit Abracadabras might be capable of getting close to her - but I’m not sure that he will be cherry ripe.
Whilst Saldier sets a fair standard - but it’s one that Honeysuckle should be more than capable of surpassing…

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End of season report - 2021-22

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