Having watched horses sloshing around over the Christmas period - and at Haydock and Uttoxeter, the past couple of days, I was assuming that the ground at Cheltenham tomorrow, would be heavy - but it appears that won't be the case…
Unseasonally high temperatures (around 15 degrees) and a drying wind have the potential to offset any showers that might fall - so it’s very hard to know how the ground will actually ride.
It’s currently described as ‘soft’ (after 4mm of over night rain) - and I’m hoping it will stay that way (so I'm not aiming at a moving target !)
The ground at Musselburgh is currently ‘good to soft’ - but with rain forecast there, I suspect it will end up soft.
Those are the 2 main meetings of interest for me - and I’ve previewed all of the races that will be covered by ITV (plus an extra one, for good measure !)
Just to confirm, any bets will be issued from 9:00 in the morning…
Cheltenham
12:50
This race isn’t on terrestrial TV - but it’s a competitive class 2 handicap, so there’s a chance I’ll be able to find a bet in it…
It’s not too surprising to see the novices, Honest Vic and Undersupervision, at the head of the early market.
That now seems to be the case with virtually all of these kind of handicaps - people latch on to the unexposed horses.
And in truth, it’s hard to argue - as they tend to win a large number of these races.
Whether Honest Vic or Undersupervison will be good enough to win this, only time will tell…
Honest Vic is well handicapped based on his hurdles form - but hasn’t looked a complete natural over fences.
More than that, he’s been running in small field novice events - and this big field handicap is likely to really test his jumping.
If it holds up, then he’ll take a bit of beating - but it’s quite a big ‘if’…
Undersupervision is far less exposed - and therefore has more scope.
He ran a fair race last time in a decent novice handicap over the course - and on that form, he’s definitely got a chance.
Destinee Royale represents Venetia - and she has also got a chance.
She improved last season, for a step up in trip - and will relish soft ground (assuming that’s what she gets !)
She will be making her seasonal debut - but that’s rarely an issue for one of Venetias…
Eclaire Surf has a chance based on his last time out third to Iwilldoit.
He was beaten a long way that day - but would have finished closer, if he’d not made a bad mistake at the fifth last.
He’s another whose chance will increase, with softer the ground.
Newtide would be the one to beat - if back to the form he showed a couple of season ago.
However he disappointed badly when last seen in February - and has since undergone wind surgery.
I suspect the market will tell the tale with him…
Whilst Full Back didn’t run badly last time, when 8th in the Ladbrokes trophy.
He’s been dropped 4lb for that run - but he’s one who wouldn’t want the ground too soft…
1:25
It’s hard to looked beyond the top 3 in the market for this…
L’Homme Presse was very impressive when winning at Ascot, just before Christmas - and provided he’s fully recovered from his exertions, he looks the one to beat.
He was sent off a short priced fav that day - despite having a bit to find on ratings, with a few of his rivals.
However, he never looked in any danger and cruised home unchallenged by 13 lengths.
It was a really impressive performance - and resulted in his handicap mark being raised by 12lb.
It’s hard to say whether his current mark of 148 fairly reflects his ability - but I suspect it doesn’t flatter him…
I’m less convinced that Millers Bank warrants his rating of 149.
He’s a decent horse, but he would have been destroyed by Pic D’orhy, if that one had stood up at Newbury.
The other issue with Millers Bank is that he would prefer good ground - and it appears that he’s unlikely to get that.
As a consequence, The Glancing Queen may turn out to be the biggest danger to L’Homme Presse.
She’ll have no issue whatever the ground - and has looked very good in her 2 chase starts so far.
In fairness, they’ve been in much weaker races than tomorrows - but based on official ratings, she’s definitely got a chance.
Outside the main 3, then Come on Teddy won well on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter - and the runner up, Fern Hill, franked that form when running well at Newbury on Wednesday.
Whilst Fantastikas ran a fair last last time, behind Threeunderthrufive at Doncaster.
He drops back half a mile in trip tomorrow - but may get an uncontested lead.
I suspect that Sam TD will ride him aggressively, and look to put his rivals under pressure.
2:00
Coole Cody is the obvious place to start in this race…
He fell at the second last in the Paddy Power gold cup, when still in with every chance; but then made amends for that last time, when comfortably winning the Racing Post gold cup.
A 4lb rating rise for a 2 length win of a big handicap, is generous.
However, he is now 11 - and that was his third big run of the season.
There are no other obvious front runners in the race - so it’s likely that he will again get an uncontested lead.
It’s not hard to see him going very close…
I’d certainly fancy him to confirm last time form with Zanza, on 2lb worse terms for 2 lengths.
It’s easy enough to argue a case for the runner up to reverse the form, on a pure weights and lengths basis.
However Zanzas way of racing (held up) will always make him a hostage to fortune…
Deyrann de Carjac finished fifth in that race - and he’s another for whom a case could certainly be made.
The issue with him however, is likely to be the ground - as he’s a much better horse on good.
If he happens to get that, then he’s likely to be right in the mix…
Alnadam heads the early market - but he needs soft ground.
He was pulled out of the Racing Post gold cup because the going was too fast - having almost been backed into favouritism.
There’s little doubt that Dan Skelton feels the horse has a race like this in him - so if he does get his conditions, he’s could well prove hard to beat.
Funambule Sivola has to carry top weight - but his last 2 runs suggest that he could still be attractively handicapped.
That said, it remains to be seen how he will handle a big field handicap…
Riders onthe Storm ran a massive race last time on his seasonal debut at Aintree, and will be a threat to everything if he can reproduce that form; whilst Kauto Riko really should have won last time at Doncaster, but got going to late.
Cheek pieces are applied tomorrow, to liven him up - and he’s certainly handicapped to go very close.
2:35
I’ve spent a lot of time looking at this race - but without knowing the precise state of the ground, it’s hard to be adamant about how it will pan out…
Tamar Bridge is the obvious one - stepping up in trip after a hard fought win at Aintree.
He looks a progressive sort - and the additional distance is likely to be in his favour.
That said, he was raised 6lb for a very narrow win - and the placed horses have done nothing subsequently, to advertise the form.
Art Approval is another progressive sort, who is stepping up in trip after a good win last time.
He got 8lb for a course win at the November meeting - but I’d be more concerned about him on soft ground (he’s shown improved form on a quicker surface).
Pileon bounced right back to form last time, when wining at Sandown.
He’s been raised 6lb for that win - but that puts him on a mark 1lb lower than when runner up in the Martin Pipe hurdle at the 2020 festival.
In short, he still looks well handicapped…
Botox Has ran well last time, when runner up to Kansas City Chief, in a similar race at the course.
I’d just about expect the him to reverse the form with the winner - but mainly because he’s less than half the age of the horse that beat him ! (who is now 13 !)
Ask Dillon finished just behind the pair of them in third that day - and at the revised weights, he has every chance of taking revenge…
None of the others can be completely ruled out - but Whatsupwithyou may be the most interesting of the outsiders…
He finished 4th at last seasons festival - and runs tomorrow off a 6lb lower mark.
He is therefore potentially well handicapped - tho there is a question mark concerning his effectiveness over 3 miles in soft ground.
3:10
Brewin’upastorm is likely to take a bit of beating in this…
He lost his way over fences - but was returned to hurdles in January, and has not looked back since.
He beat McFabulous in the National Spirit at Fontwell in February - and whilst a little disappointing at Aintree in April, bounced back to form at the same course on his seasonal return when hacking up in a good quality race.
McFabulous is one of his main rivals tomorrow.
He will be 6lb better off with Brewin’upastorm for a near 6 length beating.
In theory, that should make it quite close between the pair.
Mcfabulous will be making his seasonal return - though that’s not necessarily a negative (he won first time out last season).
A lot will depends on how ready Nicholls has him…
Guard Your Dreams is on a steep upward curve - and whilst he doesn’t have much chance based on official ratings, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run really well.
He surpassed himself last time, when taking the International hurdle, over a trip short of his best.
He’ll be better suited by tomorrows 2m4f - and looks sure to run a big race.
Stormy Island looks the final major player in the race.
She has been brought over by Willie Mullins - which is almost a tip in itself !
On official adjusted ratings, she is only a pound shy of Brewin’upastorm.
She’s also likely to get an uncontested lead - and if Danny Mullins gets his fractions right, she could be hard to reel back.
The biggest issue for her is likely to be the course - as the final hill may prove a big challenge for her…
Musselburgh
1:40
This looks a relatively weak contest - with Geromino setting the standard…
He finished a close second to the bang in form, Tommys Oscar, at Doncaster 3 weeks ago.
That was a good effort - and he doesn’t look harshly treated with just a 1lb rating rise.
Brian Hughes takes over from Theo Gillard in the saddle - but I’m not sure whether that’s a good or bad move !
Clearly Hughes is an excellent jockey - but Gillard was able to claim 5lb, which is not insignificant in a tight handicap.
Geromino steps up half a mile in trip tomorrow - but again, I’m not sure whether that’s a good or bad thing…
Strong Glance certainly has a chance - tho he is a little quirky !
He’s performed reasonably in a number of strong handicaps - and ran really well last time, when runner up at Hereford.
However, he has also run out twice in the last year - so he does come with risks !
Kavanaghs Cross won at Kelso on his most recent start, having previously finished third in a a decent handicap at Cheltenham.
He’s got plenty of scope for improvement - and gets in off a feather weight.
He also has Angus Celeda in the saddle - and he’s good value for his 5lb claim.
2:10
Tommys Oscar heads the early market for this, on the back of a couple of recent wins.
He was very impressive on his penultimate start at Haydock, when hacking up by 10 lengths - but was more workman-like last time, when winning narrowly at Doncaster.
He’s been raised 3lb for his latest win - and it’s not too surprising to see a 7lb claimer enlisted to offset that burden.
I’m sure he’ll run well tomorrow - but connections clearly know that he’s handicapped close to his max.
Whether he’ll get away with it, only time will tell…
First Impression is a decent flat horse and he made a good return to hurdles when winning at Wetherby in November.
He was strongly fancied to double up on his most recent start - but unseated at half way.
He’ll be looking to get back in the winning groove tomorrow…
John Mcconnel brings over Anna Bunina for her seasonal debut - and that looks quite significant.
She ran 2 big races last spring: firstly when 8th in the County hurdle - and then when runner up in the Scottish champion hurdle.
She races off a mark just 2lb higher tomorrow - and that will be offset by the 3lb claim of jockey Simon Torrens.
If she’s been targeted at this race, she’s likely to take a bit of beating.
Christopher Wood is the final one of major interest.
He’s unbeaten in 2 runs a the course - and has probably been targeted at this race.
He goes particularly well for Angus Cheleda - and whilst he has a lot of ground to make up with Tommys Oscar on his most recent run - he has far less to make up with him on their meeting at Kelso in March…
2:50
There’s a disappointing turn out of just 5 for this - tho all of the quintet appear to have a chance..
Amour de Nuit is the obvious one on the back of a couple of good runs this season.
He finished third over hurdles, in the tote Silver trophy: and then filled the same position behind Fanion Destruval over fences at Newbury, on this most recent start.
Tomorrows race is definitely a step down in grade for him - and he’s also able to race from a mark 2lb lower.
He should prove hard to beat…
Gold de Bois has been a model of consistency lately, finishing runner up on his 4 most recent starts !
The last 3 have been for his new stable - and they will be hoping that a step up to 2m4f tomorrow, enable him to go one place better.
Gaelik Coast finished well behind Amour de Nuit at Newbury - and is unlikely to revere the form.
That said, he was on the back foot from an early stage that day - so maybe the run can be ignored.
If it is, then he would have a chance on his previous win over tomorrows course and distance.
Joke Dancer isn’t easy to get a handle on, as he’s been moved around trip-wise, for his last few starts.
His best form is over 2 miles - though he may be able to stay further.
If he can, then he’s certainly handicapped to go very close, on a mark 6lb lower than the one he last won from.
The trip may also be an issue for Nietzsche.
He won over it at Ayr in April - but that was on good ground.
Like Joke Dancer, his best form is over the minimum - tho he was quietly fancied at big odds for the Paddy Power gold cup over 2m4f on his penultimate start (suggesting someone felt he would cope fine with it).
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