Best bets
Lingfield
1:20
Pure Bliss 0.5pt win 9/1
1:20
Pure Bliss 0.5pt win 9/1
Matrix bets
Lingfield
3:00
Queenohearts 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 7
3:35
Mack the Man 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 15
3:00
Queenohearts 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 7
3:35
Mack the Man 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 15
Lingfield passed its early morning inspection - even though
temperatures were still below freezing !
Apparently the frost sheets did their job, and with temperatures set to rise to 5 degrees by lunchtime, there should be no issues.
I was also a little surprised at how robust the early markets were (relatively speaking) - certainly they were no worse than on a Saturday, which is not what I expected…
In terms of bets on the day, then I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet - supported by a few for the Matrix.
The races aren’t there to support a lot of bets - but I do like the Best bet, so fingers crossed on the score.
Here’s some detail on my thinking…
Lingfield
I actually missed Pure Bliss when I first previewed the 1:20 - but thankfully I spotted her second time round !
I had initially struggled to see an angle into the race - but once I’d seen her, I felt that Pure Bliss stood out.
Her win at the Punchestown festival in the spring, is very good form - and it looks to me as if she’s be campaigned over too short a trip, in order to get her mark down for today.
Maybe I’m wrong on that score - but regardless, I do think she will benefit from todays step up in trip - and she should have no issue with the ground.
Against a set of rivals who look much of a muchness, she should arguably be a 1pt bet - let’s hope I live to regret the conservative staking !
The weakness of Eclair D’Ainay has messed things up in the 1:50.
He was 7/4 last night - and I would have been quite happy to oppose him at that price.
However, he has drifted to 9/2 now - so that edge has effectively been removed…
To offset his market weakness, the three horses that I might have been interested in, have all been backed.
Frero Banbou is now the race fav at 5/2; whilst Le Legerian is 4/1 and Financier 6/1.
I’m struggling to see any value at those prices - so it has to be a watching race.
The defection of Calva D’Auge from the 2:25, has removed the angle from the race - as I would have been happy to take him on…
However, we are now effectively left with a 3 horse race - with all 3 horses priced up about right.
Top Ville Ben is just about the most interested at 5/1 - but not sufficiently interesting to make him an official bet.
I’m not quite sure what is going on with the 3:00..!
I had Midnight River down as a potential Best bet, when he was 6/1. However, he can now be backed at 14/1 (in a place) and that has put me off !
Don’t get me wrong, I fully appreciate that at twice the original price, he should be screaming ‘value bet’ - but the reality is: his form is hard to asses; he comes from a stable that knows the time of day; and simply the market is unlikely to have got it wrong to such an extent…
That said, I can’t let him pass completely at such a big price, so I’ve covered him on the Matrix.
I’ve also covered Queenohearts, who is also interesting - and is one who I can see drifting, close to the off…
I suspect that the 3:35 will be won by either Metier or Carrarea - but unfortunately the market strongly agrees !
The former has good form in the book; whilst the latter has endless potential.
Of those at a price, then the most interesting, is Mack the Man.
He’s always looked capable of winning a decent handicap - and I would expect him to run well in this.
Up against 2 such strong opponents, he can’t be a Best bet - however he is worth a small play for the Matrix.
Apparently the frost sheets did their job, and with temperatures set to rise to 5 degrees by lunchtime, there should be no issues.
I was also a little surprised at how robust the early markets were (relatively speaking) - certainly they were no worse than on a Saturday, which is not what I expected…
In terms of bets on the day, then I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet - supported by a few for the Matrix.
The races aren’t there to support a lot of bets - but I do like the Best bet, so fingers crossed on the score.
Here’s some detail on my thinking…
Lingfield
I actually missed Pure Bliss when I first previewed the 1:20 - but thankfully I spotted her second time round !
I had initially struggled to see an angle into the race - but once I’d seen her, I felt that Pure Bliss stood out.
Her win at the Punchestown festival in the spring, is very good form - and it looks to me as if she’s be campaigned over too short a trip, in order to get her mark down for today.
Maybe I’m wrong on that score - but regardless, I do think she will benefit from todays step up in trip - and she should have no issue with the ground.
Against a set of rivals who look much of a muchness, she should arguably be a 1pt bet - let’s hope I live to regret the conservative staking !
The weakness of Eclair D’Ainay has messed things up in the 1:50.
He was 7/4 last night - and I would have been quite happy to oppose him at that price.
However, he has drifted to 9/2 now - so that edge has effectively been removed…
To offset his market weakness, the three horses that I might have been interested in, have all been backed.
Frero Banbou is now the race fav at 5/2; whilst Le Legerian is 4/1 and Financier 6/1.
I’m struggling to see any value at those prices - so it has to be a watching race.
The defection of Calva D’Auge from the 2:25, has removed the angle from the race - as I would have been happy to take him on…
However, we are now effectively left with a 3 horse race - with all 3 horses priced up about right.
Top Ville Ben is just about the most interested at 5/1 - but not sufficiently interesting to make him an official bet.
I’m not quite sure what is going on with the 3:00..!
I had Midnight River down as a potential Best bet, when he was 6/1. However, he can now be backed at 14/1 (in a place) and that has put me off !
Don’t get me wrong, I fully appreciate that at twice the original price, he should be screaming ‘value bet’ - but the reality is: his form is hard to asses; he comes from a stable that knows the time of day; and simply the market is unlikely to have got it wrong to such an extent…
That said, I can’t let him pass completely at such a big price, so I’ve covered him on the Matrix.
I’ve also covered Queenohearts, who is also interesting - and is one who I can see drifting, close to the off…
I suspect that the 3:35 will be won by either Metier or Carrarea - but unfortunately the market strongly agrees !
The former has good form in the book; whilst the latter has endless potential.
Of those at a price, then the most interesting, is Mack the Man.
He’s always looked capable of winning a decent handicap - and I would expect him to run well in this.
Up against 2 such strong opponents, he can’t be a Best bet - however he is worth a small play for the Matrix.
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