The continued dry spell, means that tomorrows meetings at Cheltenham and
Doncaster will be run on ground officially described as ‘good’.
I honestly
can’t remember a year when so little rain had fallen by the end of January…
It’s hard to know whether the quick ground has resulted in the
relatively small fields for Cheltenhams graded races - or whether that would
have happened regardless (there really aren’t really sufficient quality horses
to run in all of the graded races).
Whatever the reason, we are again faced
with small fields in virtually all of the non-handicaps.
To combat this,
I’ve previewed a few of the races which won’t be shown on terrestrial TV.
As
they are being run at Cheltenham, I’d expect the early markets to be quite
strong, so if I do manage to find any bets in them, issuing shouldn't be a
problem.
Here are my early thoughts on the days main races…
Cheltenham
12:15The Cheltenham card gets
under-way with a competitive looking 2 mile handicap hurdle.
Lively
Citizen sets the standard, having won a similar race at the December meeting.
He’s only been raised 5lb for that win, so clearly has a decent chance of
following up.
Hydroplane won a fair race at Sandown earlier this month - and
he has only been raised 3lb for that.
He will face very different ground
conditions tomorrow - as it was heavy at Sandown - however, he is proven on good
ground on the flat, so I wouldn’t expect that to cause him a problem.
Byzantine Empire has won his 2 most recent starts, and looks an improver for
Fergal.
He’s hard to get a proper handle on - but his mark of 122, appears
workable.
Cormier is potentially very interesting…
He ran a nice race on
his seasonal return, when fourth in the Welsh Champion hurdle - and whilst he
disappointed next time in the Greatwood, a bad mistake at the fourth last looked
to cost him his chance that day.
He opened up at 14/1 yesterday - but is now
half that price.
The worry with him, is that he won’t be wearing a hood -
and all of his best form has come when sporting the headgear.
If that’s just
red herring, then he’s probably the one to beat.
Kihavah is an interesting
Irish raider - who looks to be improving: whilst Hystery Bere won on his
handicap debut at Fontwell - and also seems to be on an upward curve.
Severence is the final one of interest - stepped back in trip, having failed
over further, on his 2 most recent runs.
All in all, quite a tricky opening
to proceedings !
12:45 This looks by far the most
competitive juvenile hurdle run so far this season - and it could well have
impact on the Triumph hurdle.
Iceo made a big impression when winning at
Kempton over Christmas, on his UK debut for Paul Nicholls.
On the back of
that run, he was made second fav for the Triumph hurdle (behind Fil Dor).
He
will be facing very different test tomorrow (in terms of track and ground) - but
he still looks the one to beat.
It’s therefore interesting that he’s only
been installed second fav in the early betting, behind Pied Piper.
He
represents Gordon Elliott and is presumably running in this race, so as not to
clash with stablemate Fil Dor, in the Spring hurdle, at next weekends Dublin
Racing Festival.
In fairness to Pied Piper, he did very well himself, to win
on his hurdling debut at Punchestown, when he got the better of the highly
regarded, Willie Mullins trained, Vauban.
Interne de Sivole was an
impressive winner of the juvenile hurdle at the December Cheltenham meeting -
and sets a fair standard for the race.
If Iceo and Pied Pier disappoint,
then he is likely to take advantage.
Forever William might not be quite up
to winning tomorrow - but I could still see him running well.
He certainly
ran well, when third to Porticello at Chepstow, over Christmas - and on that
run, could be given an EW chance.
However, he is probably running in this
race, with a view to getting a handicap mark for the Boodles - so he is probably
one to just keep an eye on.
If there is to be a shock, then Silver Shade is
the one most likely to cause it.
He’s trained by Milton Harris, who’s got
some decent juveniles this season.
Based on his debut win at Kempton, Sliver
Streak could be one of them - and if he can build on that, he could certainly
out run his odds.
Moulins Clermont and Moka de Vassy are 2 others who are
worth keeping an eye on with regard to the future, making this a particularly
interesting contest.
1:20Only 8 go to post for this - but
you won’t see many tighter handicaps…
On the opening show, it was 5/1 the
field - and it’s hard to disagree with that !
When you’re Ready is now
just about favourite.
He has run well on his 3 starts this season - and
seems to be an improver.
I can see him relishing the Cheltenham hill and he
just about looks the one to beat.
That said, if you could be sure that Oscar
Elite would run his race, then you would probably look no further…
He was
placed in two grade 1 novice hurdles last season (at Cheltenham and Aintree) -
and on that form, a mark of 137 looks very lenient.
He also ran well on his
chasing debut this season, as he was still in with every chance when falling 3
out in a decent novice chase at the November Cheltenham meeting.
However, he
then disappointed, when third of four at Huntingdon - and whilst he ran better
last time in the Dipper chase on New Years day, he bled from the nose - and that
has to be a worry…
Your Darling ran really well on his most recent start,
when third to Jacamar at Kempton.
He looked the winner jumping the last -
but weakened on the run in.
That’s a concern, with the Cheltenham hill to
face - though quicker ground will put less of an emphasis on stamina.
All of
the other 5 can be given a chance - tho none of them particularly stands out.
1:55 This is another tight handicap, in which most of the
11 runners can be given a chance.
Farinet is the early fav, for Venetia.
He was an impressive winner last time, at Sandown - and even off a 6lb
higher mark, should have every chance tomorrow.
However, quick ground would
be a concern for him, as all of his best form is on soft.
He’s also held on
Haydock form from last February, by Gallahad Quest.
Admittedly Farinet was
making his UK debut that day - but he was beaten 8 lengths by Gallahad Quest and
will be 9lb worse off tomorrow.
That doesn’t mean the form can’t be reversed
- but Farinet will clearly have his work cut out, to reverse the form.
Gallahad Quest has got a fair chance based on a number of his subsequent
runs - and just about sets the race standard.
I prefer his chance to that
of Magic Saint - even tho Magic Saint finished ahead of him last time.
The
problem with Magic Saint is that he barely stays the 2m4f trip - and whilst good
ground will help him, he will always be vulnerable to a finisher…
Coole Cody
is likely to put the pace to the race - and if he gets an uncontested lead
(which is possible), then he could prove hard to reel in.
That said, he’s
already had 4 tough races this season - and has got precious little wriggle room
off his current mark.
Jacamar won a fair novice handicap at Kempton last
time - and off a 3lb higher mark, has a definite chance.
The main issue with
him is his jumping - and it could be exposed now that he’s tackling open
company.
Spiritofthegames in the most interesting of those at bigger prices.
All of his best runs have come over tomorrows course and distance - and
after a few disappointing recent efforts, he now finds himself very well
handicapped.
It’s not hard to see him running well - tho he is reticent to
put his head in front where it matters, so is probably a better bet to place,
than he is to win…
2:30 Just 5 will go to post for the
Cotswold chase - and it’s quite hard to look beyond the top 3 in the betting…
Chantry House is the short priced favourite - despite the fact he was
pulled up on his most recent start.
In fairness, that was in the King George
- when somewhat amazingly, he was sent off the 3/1 fav.
However, he never
travelled in the race and was pulled up after the 12th fence.
That run would
obviously need to be ignored, for him to be given any chance tomorrow - but it
was so bad, that’s relatively easy to do.
Based on his previous form, he is
entitled to be favourite tomorrow - tho the fitting of first time cheek pieces
suggests that Nicky Henderson might have a few concerns, regarding his
temperament.
Simply the Betts looks his biggest danger.
He ran really
well on his most recent start, when runner up to Vienna Court - and based on
adjusted handicap ratings, he has every chance tomorrow.
The main concern,
is that he is being stepped up to 3 miles - and is unproven over the trip.
However, the small field and no confirmed front runner (Santini is most
likely to make it), mean that his stamina may not be fully tested.
Aye Right
is the other one of major interest.
As with Simply the Betts, he’s a
handicapper stepping into graded company - but he’s a high class handicapper.
On his most recent start, he beat Good boy Bobby in the Rehearsal chase at
Newcastle - and that one franked the form by winning his next start.
On
official ratings, Aye Right has only a pound to find with Chantry House, so
clearly has a good chance tomorrow.
If there is to be a surprise, then
Santini will be the one to cause it.
He finished an unlucky runner up in the
2020 Gold cup - and whilst his form has gone downhill since then, he showed a
definite glimmer last time, on his stable debut for Polly Gundry.
He would
need to build on that tomorrow, in order to have a chance - but he does have the
latent ability, if the change of stable has re-ignited his fire.
3:05
It’s quite hard to look beyond Champ in this…
A supremely
talented horse, he won the 2020 RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival - and was
expected to be a strong Gold cup contender last season.
However, issues with
his back meant that didn’t happen - and he was only able to run twice during the
campaign.
Somewhat surprisingly he was returned to hurdles for his debut
this season - but showed that all the old ability remained, as he impressively
won the Long Walk hurdle at Ascot.
In truth, he is not one you’d ever want
to take very short odds about - even though he should be too good for tomorrow
opponents.
Cheif amongst those is McFabulous.
He’s a very good horse -
but the jury is out on whether he stays 3 miles.
He’s proven over half a
mile less - but the one time he tried 3 miles, he weakened close home.
In
fairness, that was on his seasonal debut - and his is now a bit older, so it’s
definitely worth another try (particularly on quick ground).
If he does stay
the trip, then Champ will need to be at his best to beat him.
Based on the
betting, Paisley Park is the other main contender - but his best days do seem to
be behind him.
He was 5 lengths behind Champ at Ascot - and there really is
no reason why he should reverse the form.
It’s a similar story with Lisnagar
Oscar.
He too is a former Stayers hurdle winner - but no longer seems to be
the force he once was: whilst it’s impossible to make any sort of case for Dandy
Mag, who looks to be competing purely to pick up some of the minor place money.
3:40
According to the betting, this should be a match
between Hillcrest and Balco Coastal.
Both are unbeaten over hurdles -
and have looked good in registering 5 wins between them…
Hillcrest has the
better form in the book, and created a big impression last time, when winning
over course and distance on New Years day.
He powered up the hill that day -
seemingly relishing the soft ground.
The main worry with him is whether he
will be as effective on a quicker surface.
By contrast, Balco Coastal has
looked more of a speed horse.
His 2 hurdle wins have been over the minimum
trip, at Ludlow and Huntingdon - 2 of the quickest course in the country.
How effective he will be over an extra half mile at Cheltenham, remains to
be seen…
Both North Lodge and A Different Kind, can also be given chances.
The former did well to win a decent race at Aintree on his hurdling debut in
December.
He beat Bombs Away and Richmond Lake that day - and the latter is
a solid 132 rated hurdler.
Based on that run, North Lodge deserves a rating
of around 134 - and such a mark would give him a definite chance tomorrow.
A
Different Kind is unbeaten in 3 hurdle starts - and on his penultimate outing,
gave 5lb and a length beating to Green Book.
That one is rated 130 -
suggesting A Different Kind ran to a mark of around 136.
As with North
Lodge, if that is the case, then he should have a real chance in tomorrows race…
Doncaster
2:10
Miranda won the corresponding race 12
months ago - and she looks likely to double up tomorrow…
In theory, she
has more of a task on, as she will have to carry an additional 8lb - however,
whereas last year she faced a couple of strong rivals, tomorrows opposition
looks limited…
On official ratings, Western Victory should be the main
danger - but she has recently switched stables to Emma Lavelle, and ran just a
week ago, at Ascot.
That race was over 3 miles - and she drops back to 2
miles tomorrow.
That seems a slightly odd move - but Western Victory showed
some serious pace last Saturday, before failing to get home.
Provided she is
fully recovered from her exertions - then if she runs a similar race tomorrow,
she should provide a decent test for Miranda.
Based on official Ratings,
Anna Bunina is the other one worthy of consideration.
She is rated 11lb
inferior to Miranda - but she will be receiving 6lb, so hasn’t got too much to
find.
She will also be suited by tomorrows 2 mile test on good ground, so
should run her race.
However, whether that will enable her to beat Miranda -
or even Western Victory - remains to be seen…
2:45
This
does look a particularly weak race for a grade 2.
The top rated horse has an
official mark of just 130 - and most of the field could run in an average class
3 handicap.
In fairness, they are all novices - so open to improvement - but
all the same…
The early favourite, Unanswered prayers, is rated just
126.
Whether that mark is accurate, is anyones guess, as he’s been assessed
on 4 runs in novice hurdles.
He won the first and last ones - and was runner
up in the other 2 - so clearly has ability.
He’s probably best judged on
his 7 lengths second to Stage Star at Newbury - but on that run, he shouldn’t
set an insurmountable standard…
My Bobby Dazzler is rated 4lb superior to
Unanswered Prayers - but doesn’t have his scope for improvement.
He’s
already run in 5 handicaps - and whilst he was very impressive when dotting up
by 21 lengths at Aintree in December, his subsequent 4th to Dolphin Square,
earlier this month, suggested that he has limitations.
Coolbane Boy, Not at
Present and Bridge North, are all quite exposed, having each run in handicaps.
They may still be open to some improvement - but probably not a great deal.
CConsequently, Mahler Mission and The Real Whacker, are of more interest -
as both are far less exposed.
John McConnel brings over Mahler Mission from
County Meath (along with Anna Bunina).
He has an excellent record with his
UK raiders - which adds to the horse’s appeal.
The Real Whacker is very hard
to assess, after winning on his debut for Anne Duffield at Carlisle.
However, if that form can be taken literally, then he should have every
chance in what looks a relatively weak contest.
3:20
The
Skybet chase provides the most interesting betting race of the day - and plenty
of the 17 runners can be given a chance.
Fusil Raffles looks the right
favourite, stepping up in trip after a good fourth to Coole Cody at Cheltenham
in December.
He won the Charlie Hall chased on his previous start - and
whilst he might have been a little fortunate that day, a mark of 151 for a grade
2 winner, looks generous.
Debece is very interesting on his seasonal debut
for the Skeltons.
He should have won on his debut for them in March, at
Sandown - but was too free and didn’t get home.
He may be keen again
tomorrow - though the bigger field should help Harry settle him.
It’s hard
to think that he’s not got at least 7lb in hand of his current mark - so over a
course and distance that look sure to suit, he should be a big player.
Demachine is another one of major interest.
He was a very good novice
last season - and ran well, to a point, on his seasonal debut in the Ladbroke
trophy.
He’s been dropped 2lb for that run - and his subsequent first fence
unseat at Ludlow, can be ignored.
The booking of crack 3lb claimer, Kevin
Brogan, signals intent - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go very close.
Canelo finished fourth in this race 12 months ago, when running off an 11lb
higher mark.
He’s not been in great form since - but is clearly handicapped
to go close, if he does bounce back to form.
It’s a similar story with Cap
du Nord, who was third last year - but will be running off a mark 10lb lower
tomorrow…
There are also a number of interesting looking outsiders - headed
by Storm Control.
He bounced back to form just 10 days ago, when winning at
Newbury.
He has to carry a 5lb penalty for that win - but is still
potentially well handicapped.
He is likely to make the running tomorrow -
and that’s always a plus, in this kind of race.
Grand Sancey is another one
of interest, off a tumbling rating.
He made his handicap debut off a mark of
149, under a year ago - but will be running off a mark of 136 tomorrow.
The
3 mile trip is an unknown - though there is a chance he will improve for it…
