Sunday, January 30, 2022

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Cheltenham

12:15
Cormier 0.5pt win 6/1

1:55
Galahad Quest 0.5pt win 13/2


Matrix bets

Cheltenham

12:15
Hydroplane 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 11

1:20
Oscar Elite 3 units win CEP 7 FP 7

2:30
Aye Right 2 units win CEP 6 FP 4.5  (take 5/1 BOG with a bookmaker, if possible)

3:40
North Lodge 3 units win CEP 6 FP 7

Doncaster

2:10
Western Victory 2 units win CEP 5.8 FP 7

3:20
Debece 3 units win CEP 9.6 FP 9
Demachine 2 units win 8.2 FP 9
Canelo 1 unit win CEP 23 FP 17
Rocco 1 unit win CEP 42 FP 26



I’m not sure why, but the early markets this morning seemed particularly volatile…

Maybe it was because I was interested in a couple of horses that had been backed yesterday, but were drifting.
I think what happens is - horses are backed in too short, and then the market has to try and establish a ‘fair’ price.
It does that by pushing them out, until the backers return.

That certainly seemed to be what was happening with Cormier and Galahad Quest - both of whom had been backed in too short yesterday.

Anyway, the important thing is that we secured a fair price about them - and I think that 6/1+ is a fair price about both.

They’ve ended up the only Best bets on the day.
I was half interested in a couple of others - but the prices weren’t quite there, so I’ve covered them on the Matrix instead.

Here’s some detail on my thinking…


Cheltenham

I decided to ignore the absence of head gear on Cormier in the 12:15 - and make him a Best bet.
He didn’t wear it last time, in the Greatwood - and it’s hard to think he wasn’t trying that day.
The other point is that if he’s going to run in the County hurdle at the festival, his rating will need to rise a few pounds, so he will probably need to win this.
I think he has the form to do just that - so hopefully things will fall right for him.
There are a number of possible dangers, but I just about fear Hydroplane most.
He looks over-priced on the exchanges and is worth covering for the Matrix.

I was half tempted by Silver Shade in the 12:45 - but the strength of support behind the market principals, has put me off…
It seems particularly significant that Davy Russell has flown over just to ride Pied Piper - and I suspect he will take a lot of beating.
That said, Iceo is also strong in the market - so there is clearly plenty of confidence behind him.
With third fav Interne De Sivole looking very solid, I feel that has to be a watching race (mainly with a view to pointers for the Boodles race at the festival).

I like Oscar Elite best in the 1:20 - but he comes with risks…
He bled last time - and the trip might be on the short side for him.
Against that, he has the best form in the race (certainly over hurdles - and arguably over fences).
6/1 is a fair price - but it’s a very open race, so I think he’s more one for the Matrix, than a Best bet…

The 1:55 is also an open looking race - but I like Galahad Quest best…
He’s already run well in a couple of stronger races, this season - but has dropped a few pounds in the ratings.
He’s also only 6, so it’s very likely that he’s still improving.
Coole Cody should ensure a strong pace - and that will suit him.
I’m generally against hold up horses in these kind of races - but it’s a relatively small field, so hopefully he’ll get away with it (particularly if Coole Cody stretches them out).
There are question marks against all of the other runners - so at 6/1+ he’s a good bet.

I feel compelled to take a small risk on Aye Right in the 2:30, as his price is too big.
He has nothing to find with Chantry House on official ratings - and so the discrepancy in their respective prices, makes little sense.
Chantry House also has question marks over him, following his poor effort last time  - and with the application of cheek pieces.
I respect Simply the Betts - but he’s unproven over the trip: whilst Santini and Kauto Riko have too much to prove.
At 5/1 Aye Right is definitely the value call…

Champ is by far the most likely winner of the 3:05 - but holds no betting appeal at 1/2.
McFabulous is the theoretical bet against him - but there is a doubt over him staying the 3 mile trip.
That said, there is a chance that there won’t be much pace in the race, so his stamina may not be fully tested.
However, even if that does happen, Champ may still have more speed !
In short, Champ should win - but I won’t be betting on it.!

I was intending to make North Lodge a Best bet in the 3:40 - but I wanted at least 6/1.
I didn’t think that would be an issue up against a couple of well fancied rivals - but I was wrong !
North Lodge has been well backed - and it’s a struggle to even get 5/1.
He may drift close to the off and as a consequence, is worth covering via the Matrix.
6/1 is the target price…


Doncaster

Western Victory has been surprisingly well backed in the 2:10.
I expected her to be around a 7/1 shot - but you’ll struggle to get 5/1.
I think there’s a chance she might steal the race from the front - and she faces limited opposition...
She’s therefore worth covering via the Matrix - and again hopefully her price will drift a little pre-race.

I think a lucky pin is the best way to tackle the 2:45 !
Literally, any of the 7 runners could win - tho it’s hard to construct a solid case for any of them.
Last night, Mahler Mission was just about my favoured option: but I’ve swung to Bridge North, this morning.
I can also see a price based argument for The Real Whacker…
All this said, no result would surprise me, so it has to be a watching race.

As is so often the case in the big betting races, the bookmakers enhanced place terms, have messed up the win odds in the 3:20.
I like Debece best - but whilst he is 9.6 on the exchanges, you’ll struggle to beat 6/1 with the bookmakers.
That’s too short a price in such a competitive race (and there are doubts over him).
As a consequence, it has to be a race for the Matrix.
Debece is the main play - but I’ll also include Demachine (who I think is the next most likely winner).
Canelo and Rocco are a couple of ‘value’ plays, who are also worth backing at big odds, to small stakes.

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