Whilst Cheltenham is undoubtedly an amazing spectacle - in recent years, betting
at the meeting has become progressively more difficult…
I’m not sure
exactly when it happened - maybe at the point when they switched to 4 days - or
maybe when Willie Mullins took things to a new level.
Whenever, the reality
is, that nowadays almost every conditions race (Championship races & novice
races), is won by a strongly fancied horse.
The problem is caused by all
of the best horses being in just a few big stables - and the big stables rarely
make mistakes at the biggest meetings.
It’s all become a bit too
predictable…
There were 16 Championship/novice races run across the 4
days - and all bar one, was won by a horse at odds of 4/1 or less (The Nice Guy
being the sole expectation).
More than that, only 2 of the remaining 15,
were won by horses at odds of greater than 5/2 (Flooring Porter and A Plus
Tard).
Unless you are prepared to bet at very short prices, the
conditions races can only be watched.
In fairness, I knew that this was
likely to be the case, and issued very few bets in conditions races over the
week (they included The Nice Guy and A Plus Tard - and would have included
Flooring Porter, if I could have got a price !).
With the mares races
generally also tricky to call, realistically the only option for significant
betting at the meeting, is in the handicaps.
By their nature, they are tough
to crack - and that was particularly the case, this year.
The UK
handicapper has been very lenient with UK horses this season, in an attempt to
give them a better chance against the Irish trained horses.
Nobody knew for
sure how that was going to work out - so there was an extra layer of guesswork
required.
As I aim to use the Best bets for the less speculative wagers
- there were never going to be many of those.
However, this should have been
the time when the Matrix really came into its own - spreading the risk in the
handicaps, and taking the occasional chance in the conditions races.
That was my strategy for the 4 days - and I was reasonably consistent in
the execution…
TuesdayI made Echoes of Rain, the days
Best bet, in the mares hurdle…
Connections had originally planned to run
her in the county hurdle on Friday, so she was a late addition to the field.
As a consequence, I felt she had been slightly over-looked in the
betting - and at 9/1 in an open race, looked a fair bet.
And she ran OK.
She was slightly hampered, when Indefatigable fell at the second last -
though she had time to recover, if good enough.
Alas however, she wasn’t -
and could only plug on for a slightly disappointing fifth place.
Far
more unlucky, was Tellmesomethinggirl.
I’d saved on her for the Matrix - and
she was still going very strongly, when she was brought down by Indefatigable.
Possibly one that got away…
I used the Matrix for 3 other races on
the day:
In the Arkle, I split stakes between Riviere D’Etel and Couer
Sublime - but both ran disappointingly.
Riviere D’Etel took up the running
at the fourth last - but she had nothing more to give, following a wayward jump
at the second last.
Couer Sublime was never put in the race with a chance -
and trailed home well beaten
I used the full Matrix in the Ultima,
putting up 6 horses, with a variety of stakes.
Fantastikas was my main fancy
in the race - and whilst he ran a fair race, he never looked likely to win.
Ben Dundee and Gericault Roque were the pair I fancied next most - and
whilst the former ran poorly (on the back of a big late price drift), the latter
looked likely to win, when getting the better of his battle with Oscar Elite, up
the run in.
However, Corach Rambler then burst between the pair of them and
spoilt the party.
The consolation was that I had also covered him in the
Matrix - but only to minimum stakes, so whilst it was nice to get the winner, it
could have been better !
The final Matrix bets of the day were in the
Fred Winter.
I suggested 4 in the race - and 3 of them ran really well.
Saint Segal travelled strongly to the home turn, before weakening out of
things.
By contrast, Bell ex One and HMS Seahorse finished well - but they
couldn’t get to Brazil or Gaellic Warrior, and had to settle for third and
fourth places respectively…
In the 2 others races on the days:
Constitution Hill was a massively impressive winner of the Supreme novice
hurdle.
I would really have liked to put him up - but there was minimal
margin in a price of 9/4, in what looked a strong field.
Whilst Honeysuckle
retained her crown in the Champion hurdle.
I expected Epatante to follow her
home - and she duly did.
Though the result had no impact on the official
P&L…
Wednesday A deluge of rain on watered
ground, turned Wednesdays racing into something of a lottery.
A number
of horses were withdrawn; quite a few others should have been withdrawn - whilst
others had no issue whatsoever with conditions !
One who should probably
have been withdrawn, was Gumball.
Alas he wasn’t - which was a shame, as I
had made him the days Best bet..!
In truth, he was always a speculative
one: but he is a well handicapped horse - and if the first time blinkers had
fired him up, I think he could have taken a lot of beating.
However,
we’ll never know, as he clearly couldn’t cope with the ground and was pulled up
before the home turn.
I had covered stakes with 3 others for the Matrix
- but 2 of them were non runners - whilst the final one, Embittered, didn’t get
home in the soft ground.
All in all, a very disappointing race.
On a
day in which it was hard to find bets, I only suggested them in 2 other races.
The first of those was the Brown Advisory novice chase (ex RSA).
I
suggested a couple of relative outsiders in the shape of Capodanno and Dusart,
up against 3 strong UK based market leaders.
The early favourite,
Bravemansgame, was withdrawn on account of the ground - but that didn’t help and
both of the suggested bets ran quite disappointingly, behind impressive winner,
L’Homme Presse…
The only other bets on the day were in the Coral cup,
where I again deployed a full Matrix.
My main fancy in the race, was Drop
the Anchor - but as a hold up horse, conditions were all against him (due to the
kick back) and he never featured.
Camprond was my second choice in the race
- and he ran really well, on ground that wouldn’t have suited him.
He was up
with the pace throughout, but eventually faded into fourth place.
He was one
of four, who had a chance turning in - and Fastorslow was another.
I’d also
covered him in the Matrix - and he seemed to be getting the better of a battle
with Commander in Fleet on the run in.
However the latter has stamina to
burn - and that proved decisive in the final few strides.
Fastorslow traded
at 1.04 IR - but was edged out by a short head.
In the days other races:
Sir Gerhard justified the decision to run in the Ballymore, and outclassed his
rivals.
It will be interesting to see whether he remains over hurdles next
season and is targeted at the Champion hurdle - or is sent over fences (and
probably aimed at the Arkle).
Shishkin didn’t handle conditions in the
Champion chase - and was pulled up just after half way. That was a big
disappointment, as his rematch with Energumene looked to be one of the
high-lights of the week. In his absence - and with Chacun Pour Soi falling -
Energumene came home an easy winner.
Delta Work became a rare Cheltenham
winner to get booed on the way back to the winners enclosure !
That was
because he beat Tiger Roll, who was making his last ever racecourse appearance.
It seemed so appropriate that Michael O’Leary owned both the winner - and
the runner up !
You’ll rarely see a better example of cutting your nose off
to spite your face - he really does make a great pantomime villain !
Finally
Facile Vega lived up to the hype, with an impressive win in the bumper.
Willie Mullins trained 3 out of the first 4 home (and Gordon Elliott the
runner up), suggesting that the balance of power at the festival is not going to
be shifting, for a few years at least !
Thursday The
sun was back out for the third day - and the racing switched to the new course -
and fresh ground.
I struggled to find a bet in the 4 conditions races
(in truth, I did find one - but couldn’t get the price I was after) - so all of
the days bets were in the handicaps.
They included the days Best bet -
Omar Maretti - in the Fulke Walwyn chase.
I really liked his profile -
but he ran a shocker and was never sighted.
I’d covered stakes with 3
others in the race - and whilst School Boys Hours and Come on Teddy, also ran
poorly, Mister Coffey ran a huge race.
In fact all the way up the home
straight, it simply looked a question of how far.
However, when Sam Waley
Cohen finally pressed the button, the horse found little and was outstayed by
Chambard.
Another frustrating result…
The first bets of the day,
were in the Pertemps final - and in all the years I’ve been tipping, I don’t
think I’ve managed what I achieved in this race !
In order to create my
‘short list’ (which I use for the Matrix bets), I first create a ‘long list’.
For this particular race, the long list contained 9 horses - which I then
trimmed down to the 5 which I suggested for the Matrix.
None of the 5
covered themselves in glory - with If the Cap Fits doing best, in finishing
sixth.
However the 4 that I dismissed, managed to fill the first 4 places -
which almost beggars belief !
I spent quite a lot of time trying to figure
out how it happened - but came to the conclusion that it was just one of those
things.
A freak event, that could just as easily have gone the other way -
but didn’t !
It was a similar story - if not quite as bad - in the
Plate.
The race was won by Coole Cody, with Imperial Alcazar runner up.
Both featured on my long list - and but didn’t make the cut for the Matrix.
3 did - with Stole Silver doing best of the trio, in finishing fourth…
Needless to say, not my finest days ‘pruning’ !
In the days
other races, Bob Olinger took advantage of Galopins des Champs final fence fall,
to claim the Turners novice chase.
The race had been highly anticipated -
but in reality was a non-event, with Galopin proving much the better.
That
said, I really can’t believe that Bob ran his race, so it will be interesting to
see if anything comes to light.
Allaho once again dominated the field in the
Ryanair.
He put up a huge performance to take the race 12 months ago - and
did exactly the same this year.
Possibly my biggest mistake of the week, was
not making Flooring Porter a Best bet in the stayers hurdle.
I really
fancied him - but couldn’t beat 4/1 in the morning - and up against 4 or 5
strong rivals, there was minimal margin in that price.
Whilst he was also
returned at that price, he could easily have been backed at a point bigger, at
various times during the day.
Needless to say, he hacked up ! Though in
fairness, a lot of that was down to a brilliant ride from Danny Mullins - which
couldn’t have been guaranteed pre-race.
That said, I was pretty sure he was
the best horse in the race - and he was able to show that to be the case…
FridayBy the final day of the meeting, the ground was
in a similar condition to the opening day - not something that seemed possible,
following the deluge on Wednesday…
I felt that would perfectly suit A
Plus Tard - and as I also considered him the best horse in the Gold Cup field,
he became a particularly strong fancy.
He was backed early - with the
4/1 of the previous day, 3/1 by the time I was able to tip.
I still thought
he was a good bet at that price - as to my mind, he was more like a 6/4 shot !
Assuming Henry de Bromhead had got him in top shape (and that wasn’t
guaranteed, as his stable hasn’t been in top form all season), I felt that he
simply needed to jump round without incident.
In the race itself, Rachel
Blackmore got him into a great rhythm - tho he was a length or two further back
than I would have liked.
For a moment, turning in, I thought that might have
been a mistake - as he was trapped in behind a wall of horse and Minella Indo
kicked a couple of lengths clear.
However Rachel got A Plus Tard out -
and began to chase down the leader.
He collared Minella indo at the last -
and then put in the better jump.
From that point on, it was simply a
question of how far.
And that is where the performance went from great
to unbelievable !
A Plus Tard put in a finishing burst as impressive as any
I’ve ever seen at Cheltenham.
He managed to put 15 lengths between himself
and his rivals - with an incredible surge of power.
To be honest, he
finished so strongly, I wonder if he’ll ever run to that level again.
I’ll
certainly want to see how he’s come out of the race, before I support him again.
For the purposes of the race tho - and the P&L - it was simply a win
- though a very welcome one !
The rest of the days bets were for Matrix
- and they started with a cluster in the County hurdle.
I was keen to
take on State Man, an unexposed novice, who looked much too short at 11/4 in 26
runner handicap.
However, rather than being much too short, he proved to be
much too good !
He gave away the outside to nothing - and still cantered
home, without breaking sweat.
The old adage of a graded horse in a handicap,
certainty seemed to apply.
Colonel Mustard and West Cork were 2 of the 4
that I put in the Matrix - and they ran well to finish third and fourth.
However, they simply weren’t in the same class as the winner…
The
Nice Guy was the next Matrix bet in the Albert Bartlett.
I wasn’t completely
convinced about the 2 market leaders - and whilst he was a speculative one, I
felt I’d seen enough in his hurdling debut to warrant a risk.
And sure
enough, he showed big improvement - and came home a comfortable winner.
For
most of the race, it looked as if Winged Leader was going to be another winner
for the Matrix, in the Foxhunters.
He was 5 lengths clear jumping the final
fence - and whilst he was clearly tiring, it looked as if he was going to hang
on.
However, under a never say die ride from Patrick Mullins (for which he
received a 4 day ban), Billaway got up in the shadows of the post, to deny him.
I’ve lost count of how many times that’s happened this season - but whatever
it was, one more was added to the number !
The days final Matrix bets were
in the last race of the festival - the Martin Pipe hurdle.
I sided with
Freedom to Dream and the favourite, Langer Dan.
However, Langer Dans luck
was out - and he was brought down by a faller at the second hurdle.
Freedom
to Dream ran well - but ultimately could only finish fourth behind Banbridge.
And so ended another Cheltenham festival…
As always, there
were some great races - and some spectacular performances.
In terms of
official bets, then things ended about level.
The Best bets made a small
profit (courtesy of A Plus Tard) - whilst the Matrix made a small loss.
Ofcourse things could have been very different for the Matrix, which had
4 seconds (all of which traded odds on IR) compared to the 2 winners.
It’s a
ratio which has been maintained pretty much throughout the season - and defies
logical explanation (other than simply being down to variance).
It’s
crazy to think that there are now only 3 weeks of the TVB season left.
Just where has the time gone..?!
TVB
