Looking at the fields for the opening day of the Cheltenham festival, it’s hard not to be struck by how much things have changed…
A maximum of 12 runners will go to post for each of the 5 conditions races - an unthinkable situation a decade ago.I’m not sure exactly why the fields are so much smaller.
Maybe it’s the cost of entering in the races; maybe there just aren’t the horses any more; or maybe it’s the fact that the best horses are now with just a handful of trainers and everyone else knows there is little point taking them on !
Whatever the reason, the bottom line is smaller fields - a less thrilling spectacle - and fewer betting opportunities !
And to think, there is pressure for a fifth day (and it’ll happen)
Anyway, it is what it is.
I’ve no doubt we will see some great horses - and there will still be some great races.
I may even find a few great bets (stranger things happen !)
In terms of the ground, then I expect the meeting to open with the going on the soft side.
I believe that some watering took place on Saturday - and there was also some rain !
Whatever, it won’t be quick.
Here are my early thoughts on the opening days races…
Cheltenham
1:30
What this race lacks in numbers, it more than makes up for in quality.
There may only be 9 runners, but 4 or 5 of them have the potential to be top class.
Constitution Hill heads the market - and I’ve no issue with that.
He’s unbeaten in 2 hurdles starts - and whilst it can be argued that’s he’s not beaten much (despite winning a grade 1 !), the manner of his victories has suggested that he is an exceptional talent.
A 14 length defeat of Might I was followed by a similar margin win over Jetiole - and whilst the form of neither victory is outstanding, the times were both very good.
Connections seem suitably bullish - and he looks the most likely race winner.
It should help his cause that his main market rival, Dysart Dynamo, is a head strong front runner, who is likely to give him a nice tow into the race.
He has also won his 2 hurdle races - and been very impressive on each occasion.
However, his style of running will make him vulnerable at the highest level (when it will be much harder from him to simply grind his rivals into the ground).
Jonbon is the third of the big guns - and he too is unbeaten over hurdles (in 3 starts).
He was really impressive on his penultimate start at Ascot - but a little less so, last time at Haydock.
In truth, he is hard to crab - he just doesn’t seem quite as talented at stablemate Constitution Hill.
Kilcruit should arguably have won the bumper at last seasons festival - but he gave Sir Gerhard too much rope and couldn’t reel him in.
He subsequently reversed the form at Punchestown - making him arguably the top bumper horse of last season.
However, things haven’t gone as well over hurdles, this campaign.
He was beaten at odds of 1/14 on his debut at Cork- and then again, at 4/9 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He did finally get off the mark last time at Punchestown, but he is going to have to significantly improve on that, if he is to feature in the finish of this race.
If the race isn’t won by Mullins or Henderson (they are responsible for the 4 already mentioned), then it’s most likely to be taken by the Gordon Elliot trained Mighty Potter.
He won a grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas - and in a normal year, that form would see him vying for favouritism in this race.
However, he’s been slightly over-looked in the market, up against some potentially exceptional talents.
I would expect him to run his race - and I could certainly see him getting placed (even if winning proves to be slightly beyond him).
All 4 of the other runners are interesting - but the bar is set very high and it’ll be a bit of a surprise if any of them manage to play a major part in the finish.
2:10
11 will go to post for the Arkle - and there is no standout candidate…
Edwardstone heads the market, on the back of 4 successive wins in novice chases.
It’s very hard to knock what he’s achieved - tho there is a question mark over the suitability of Cheltenham - and he’s yet to beat an Irish horse !
He’s undoubtedly the best of the English - but nowadays, that doesn’t necessarily mean much !
The next 7 in the betting are all Irish trained - and it’s not easy to pick between them.
4 of them met last time out, in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing festival.
Blue Lord came out on top that day, after taking advantage of a last fence blunder by Riviere D’etel.
Saint Sam was 4 lengths back in third - whilst Haut en Coleurs fell at the third fence.
It’s easy enough to construct an argument for why all 3 beaten horses might reverse the form: Riviere D’etel may well have won, if she had jumped the final fence cleanly; Saint Sam almost certainly went off too fast - and was staying on strongly at the end; whilst Haut en Coleur was notably well backed, up against stablemate Blue Lord.
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice.
For What it’s worth, I like Riviere D’etel best - but more on the strength of her previous second to Ferney Hollow (who would be short priced fav, if he was running in this race).
Coueur Sublime was 14 lengths behind Riviere D’etel that day - and whilst he’s a horse I really like, it’s hard to find a good reason why he should reverse that form…
Of those at bigger prices, then War Lord interests me most…
He is well held by Edwardstone, on their run in the Henry VIII at Sandown.
However, I suspect he will be better suited to Cheltenham, than the favourite.
Whilst he may struggle to reverse the form, I would certainly expect him to at least narrow the gap…
2:50
The declaration of Frodon for the Ultima, means that 6 horses will be forced to carry more weight than the handicapper thinks they deserve…
That’s obviously not great for them - though in theory, it should make the race a little easier to solve !
So far as Frodon is concerned, then admirable horse though he is, I’ll be surprised if he can defy a rating of 164, and give upwards of 9lb to a host of younger, progressive rivals…
That said, the early favourite for the race, is Death Duty - and he’s a year older than Frodon !
He was once considered potentially top class by Gordon Elliot - but had spent a lot of time in the wilderness, prior to his last time out win in the Grand National trial at Punchestown.
Back to form, his current rating of 144 look attractive - though whether he will be as well suited by 3 furlongs less, on quicker ground, is a different matter…
Does he Know is a young, progressive horse - and he did well to win the grade 2 Reynoldstown chase on his most recent start, after a 3 month break.
I would expect him to improve for that run - but the 5lb rating rise he received for winning, was far from ideal.
Floueur provides Gordon Elliot with a second string to his bow.
He ran well when third to Death Duty at Punchestown, and unlike the winner, should be suited to the shorter distance of the Ultima.
That said, as he was beaten 7 lengths that day and is no better off at the weights. He will have his work cut out to reverse the form.
Fantastikas has some good form in novice chases and looks fairly rated on a mark of 144: whilst Corach Rambler is another who looks fairly rated.
He won over the course and distance in December - and was sent off fav to beat Does he Know in the Reynoldstown chase.
He still had a chance when falling 5 out in that race - and is now 9lb better off with the winner…
If he weren’t 5lb out of the weights, I could be quite keen on Gericault Roque.
He is yet to win a race over fences - but has finished runner up on his 3 most recent starts, all in good races.
The trouble is, his mark has gone up from 123 to 138 (effectively). That said, he is a young, improving horse, so he may well be competitive off his current rating.
Grumpy Charlie interests me most of those at big prices.
He was a good winner at Newbury in December - and again ran well at the same course last month, when third to Bravemansgame.
He’s still only 7, so has plenty of scope for improvement - and he will appreciate any cut in the ground.
3:30
Honeysuckle will be looking to defend the crown she won 12 months ago - and it’s hard to think she won’t be successful…
It’s a bizarre situation, whereby she is officially rated the best horse in the race by upwards of 3lb - and yet receives 7lb from all of her rivals, bar one.
If official ratings are anything to go by - she’s already home and hosed !
She is certainly an exceptional mare: unbeaten in 14 runs under rules - and greatly improved over the past 12 months.
In truth, she didn’t look at her brilliant best last time, in the Irish champion hurdle - but the fact she was still over 6 lengths too good for all of her rivals, speaks volumes for her superiority.
The reality is, she could perform a good few pounds below her optimum - and would still be the most likely race winner.
That said, she does face a few interesting rivals - and there is a chance that at least one of them could improve enough to test her.
Appreciate It won last years Supreme novice by 24 lengths - though he hasn’t been seen since.
However, the fact that he is trained by Willie Mullins, tempers concerns - as if anyone can get him back at his best after 12 months off, then Willie can !
Teahupoo is another potential improver.
He’s only 5 - but has won 6 of his 7 starts over hurdles and was particularly impressive last time, when beating Durasso at Gowran Park.
He will need to find another 7lb to challenge a peak form Honeysuckle - but that’s not impossible.
Zanahiyr and Adagio are the two other 5 years olds in the race - and whilst it’s an age group I’m generally against (due to maturity), they both have scope for improvement.
Adagio in particular, has strong course form and could easily run into a place.
Epatante won the 2020 Champion hurdle - but was put in her place by Honeysuckle last year and generally hasn’t looked as good as she used to.
It’s hard to make a case for any of the others winning - tho not impossible that one of them could run into the frame (due mainly to the fact that the main challengers to Honeysuckle, all come with question marks over them).
4:10
Telmesomethinggirl was a really impressive winner of the mares novice hurdle at last years festival - but it’s still a little surprising to see her installed a relatively short priced favourite for this.
On official ratings, she is only the sixth best horse in the race - and she has been beaten on all of her 3 subsequent starts.
Clearly there is an expectation that she saves her best for Cheltenham !
I suspect that is the case - and I haven’t got a major issue with her heading the market - though I do think her price is tight…
There has been a lot of support in recent weeks, for Queen Brook.
She was a very good bumper horse - but hasn’t reached the same level over hurdles.
However, she has only had 6 tries - and her last time out second to Burning Victory was probably a personal best over timber.
On 3lb better terms, she has a good chance of reversing the form with the winner - though whether that will be good enough to get her home in front, is a different matter.
The Willie Mullins trained Stormy Island and Echoes in Rain, are the 2 highest rated mares in the race - though that could be in part down to the way they’ve been campaigned (both have contested graded races).
Both won grade 1 races at last seasons Punchestown festival - and there were great expectations this season, for Echoes in Rain, in particular.
However, she has disappointed in 3 runs - though her last time out third in the Irish Champion hurdle, was definitely a step back in the right direction.
Heaven Help Us was a shock winner of last seasons Coral Cup - and whilst she’s not performed at that level in 5 subsequent runs, she’s not run too badly either.
She certainly has a chance of at least placing.
Mrs Milner won last years Pertemps final - but I can’t see her being suited by a drop in trip.
And whilst the trip should be no issue for Maries Rock, she is probably a few pounds shy of this level…
The same is likely to be true of Indefatigable - tho she finished fourth in the race 12 months ago and could be capable of achieving a similar placing, in what looks a slightly weaker renewal.
4:50
This would be a tough race to play in regardless - but the presence of Gaelic Warrior makes it nearly impossible.
He’s an ex French horse, who will be making his debut for Willie Mullins.
Rumour has it, that he was originally considered a Supreme horse for next year.
However, the UK handicapper has given him a mark of just 129 - which is 10lb below the mark that was expected.
As a result, there has clearly been a change of plan - and the decision has been made to try and exploit the rating.
I guess the thinking is, if he wins - great: if he doesn’t - he can still be a top novice next season !
Bearing in mind connections, it’s unlikely they are far off in their assessment - and if they are right, then he should prove very hard to beat.
If he wasn’t in the race, then there would still be a stand out candidate in the shape of the Gordon Elliot trained The Tide Turns.
He won on his stable debut at Punchestown - before finishing fourth behind Vauban in the grade 1 juvenile at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, it was his most recent effort, when again fourth at Gowran, that really caught the eye.
He was given a very tender ride in the closing stages - and yet finished not far behind some high class older rivals.
If that run can be taken literally, he could easily give Gaelic Warrior something to think about.
Ignoring those 2 (!) - the race looks as open as ever…
On the book, HMS Seahorse has a fair chance of reversing Punchestown form with The Tide Turns, on 9lb better terms for a couple of lengths - even if it’s likely that the winner has subsequently improved.
Whilst Saint Segal arguably looks the best of the home defence, based on his second to Porticello in the grade 1 finale at Chepstow.
That said, Too Friendly wasn’t beaten as far by Porticello, when fourth to Knights Commander at Doncaster (though Porticello probably wasn’t at his best that day).
Bell ex One is the final one of major interest, on his debut for Paul Nicholls.
Previously trained in Ireland, he won 2 of his 3 starts - and if he has improved for the stable switch, then he should run well.
5:30
It’s quite shocking to see just 7 declared for the NH novice chase.
I’m old enough to remember when there were 20+ runners every year - most of them with a row of duck eggs next to their name - and trained by someone you’d never heard of !
How times change…
This year there will be just 2 British trained runners (Welsh trained, if you want to be specific) - which really beggars belief.
You have to wonder what the point of the race is - as it just seems to provide a race for the Willie Mullins & Gordon Elliot, which aren’t quite good enough to run in the old RSA (now the Browns Advisory).
Anyway..!
Run Wild Fred and Stattler are the main contenders for Mullins & Elliott - though both stables have back up, in the shape of Ontheropes and Braeside.
Of the main two, I would have a slight preference for Stattler.
He was sent off favourite for last years Albert Bartlett hurdle - but couldn’t get close to Vanillier.
He’s won 2 of his 3 chases this season - and stayed on well to take a grade 2 at Naas on his most recent start.
Run Wild Fred bolted up in the Troytown in November - and then finished runner up in the grade 1 novice at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He sets the race standard - though I suspect that Stattler may be able to improve past him…
It’s not impossible that Vanillier will improve past them both.
He was a hugely impressive winner at last years festival - but is taking his time to reach the same level over fences.
He was well behind Stattler last time - and behind Run Wild Fred, on his previous outing - but a return to Cheltenham may well see him bounce back to his best.
It’s quite hard to make a case for either Braeside or Ontheropes - both definitely look stable second strings.
As a consequence, if there is to be a ‘shock’ it’s likely to be provided by Pats Fancy.
He twice won well at Chepstow, before finishing a creditable runner up to Bravemansgame.
That’s decent form - and would give him a fair chance in a normal year. However, Run Wild Fred and Stattler have form at a different level - so he will need to show major improvement, if he is to trouble them.
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