Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival - and it’s anyones guess how the ground will be riding.
As I write this preview (on Wednesday morning), the rains have yet to arrive- but they are expected !
Thankfully I’ll be able to monitor things this afternoon, before committing to tomorrows bets.
In terms of field sizes - then with the exception of the opener (which I will excuse !), they have held up well.
Historically, Thursday tends to produce the most betting opportunities - so I’ll be busy trying to root them out this evening !
Here are my early thoughts for you to digest…
Cheltenham
1:30
Just 4 horses will go to post for this - making it the smallest festival field this century.
Furthermore, it is effectively a match, as El Barra and Bussleton are running to pick up third and fourth prize money (tho £18K & £9 isn’t to be sniffed at, for a few mins work !).
However, what the race lacks in numbers, it more than makes up for in quality.
Galopin des Champ and Bobn Olinger are 2 of the most exciting novices to be seen in many a year - and the prospect of them going head to head, is mouthwatering (and unexpected !).
Obviously, it’s not going to be a betting race - but it will hopefully be a thrilling spectacle (think Arkle v Mill House, Kauto Star v Denman - or more recently, Shishkin v Energumene !)
What really adds to it, is that race tactics are already clear.
Galopin des Champs will attempt to make all - and Bob Olinger will track him and look to pounce up the home straight.
Which one will come out on top, is anyones guess.
You can bet even money the pair - and that about sums things up !
Personally, I’d slightly favour Galopin des Champs.
He was unbelievable on his debut at Leopardstown over Christmas - and almost as good, last time at the Dublin Racing festival.
I struggle to believe that many (any !) novices could live with him if he gets into the same rhythm.
That said, Bob Olinger was wildy impressive at the festival last year - and clearly possesses a huge amount of ability.
If he can keep tabs on Galopin - and is in position to strike up the home straight, his undoubtedly quality could see him come out on top.
It’s not a race I’ll be betting in though - some races are better off just watched and appreciated !
2:10
Sire de Berlais has already won 2 Pertemps finals - and there’s a definite chance he’ll complete his hat-trick this year.
He’s also been in the frame on his 2 other runs at the festival - so clearly loves the place !
On the flip side, he’s now 10 - so probably past his best - and is rated 4lb higher than when winning the race in 2020.
However, that is offset, at least in part, by the booking of 7lb claimer Rob James.
He’s a very experienced conditional - and whilst he may not be value for the full 7lbs - he’s worth at least 3 or 4 of them !
Sire de Berlais ran as if coming to his peak, when finishing fourth in the Warwick qualifier for this race - and he looks the one to beat.
That said, Gordon Elliott has another potentially potent string to his bow, in the shape of Dunboyne.
He was given a considerate ride to finish fifth in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas - and his subsequent unplaced run at the Dublin Racing festival, can be ignored (a good run it that race, would have negatively affected his handicap mark).
Winter Fog finished runner up in the Leopardstown race, on his debut for Emmet Mullins.
He cantered into the lead that day and looked the winner running to the last - but didn’t get home.
That could have been down to jockey error (he may have been produced too soon) or lack of stamina…
Alaphilippe looks the best of the home defence.
He could only finish fifth in the Warwick qualifier (behind Sire de Berlais) - but that was his seasonal debut and he travelled powerfully through the race.
He has been dropped 2lb for the run, which seems a little generous - and if he has come on for it, he should run a big race.
It’s not easy to find many outside the market leaders, as most of the other runners look exposed and generally in decline.
Third Wind and Pileon are a couple of the more interesting ones.
The former finished third in the Warwick qualifier (ahead of Sire de Berlais and Alaphilippe) and now runs off a mark 5lb lower.
As a result, he now has the same rating as when fourth to Sire de Berlais in the 2020 running of the race.
Whilst Pileon is now on a mark 3lb lower than when runner up in the 2020 Martin Pipe.
He bounced back to form when winning a series qualifier at Sandown in early December - and whilst he disappointed next time, if he can recapture the Sandown form, he could easily outrun his odds.
2:50
Allaho is going to take the world of beating in this.
He arguably put up the performance of the festival last year, when winning this race - and his 3 subsequent runs, suggest he remains as good as ever.
He lost little in defeat, when outspeeded by Chacun Pour Soi over 2 miles at Punchestown, at the end of last season - and has bounced back to win both of his starts this campaign.
In the first of them he beat a very strong field in the John Durkan; whilst last time, he was much too good for Fakir Doudaries in a grade 2 at Thurles.
The fact that Fakir Doudaries followed that up, by taking the grade 1 Ascot chase, suggests that Allaho has little to fear from the home defence.
Fanion Destruval, Mister Fisher and Saint Calvados all finished well behind Fakir at Ascot, and their chances of beating Allaho seem remote…
The biggest danger to Allaho could be Conflated.
He produced a significant personal best, when winning the Irish Gold cup on his most recent start.
That really was a bolt from the blue - but there seemed no fluke about it.
If he can run to the same level, over half a mile shorter, then he could easily give Allaho something to think about.
Shan Blue is a hard one to assess.
He would have hacked up in the Charlie Hall on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby, if he hadn’t taken a heavy fall - though what that form is worth, is a different matter !
He’s probably best judged on his novice runs from last season - and they suggest he is some way short of the required level.
Janidil is quite interesting.
He finished runner up to Allaho in the John Durkan - and third to Conflated in the Irish Gold cup.
He seems better over the intermediate trip - and whilst it’s hard to argue a case for him reversing the John Durkan form with Allaho, it’s relatively easy to see him placing.
3:30
The stayers hurdle looks a real puzzle !
Flooring Porter was a surprise winner 12 months ago - but it’ll be less of a surprise if he follows up this year.
That said, he’s not won in 3 tries since - and clearly has his quirks !
He was all over the place on his next start at the Punchestown festival - eventually being pulled up: and then fell on his seasonal debut at Navan.
In fairness, he could easily have won his only other race at Leopardstown over Christmas - but Klassical Dream stole a few lengths from him at the start and he could never get them back.
Klassical Dream has a big chance in this.
Whilst he is also a ‘character’ - in addition to the Leopardstown race, he won the grade one stayers race at the Punchestown festival - so he clearly has plenty of ability.
He was well beaten on his most recent start at Gowran - but didn’t seem to run his race that day.
I’d expect Willie to have him back to his best for this - and his best is very good…
Champ is the third ‘enigmatic’ runner in the race !
He made a sensational return to hurdling, when winning the Long Walk at Ascot in December.
However, he was then beaten by a back to form Paisley Park, on trials day at the end of January.
I would expect that form to be reversed - though that’s not guaranteed !
Certainly, it’s hard to completely dismiss Paisley Park - even though prior to that race, he had looked to be in decline.
If Emma Lavelle has coaxed him back to his best, then he definitely has a chance.
That’s also true for Thyme Hill.
He missed this race last year - but made amends when winning the stayers hurdle at Aintree.
His campaign hasn’t gone to plan this season - but he’s a talented horse and far more straightforward than most of his main rivals.
Royal Kahana is the only other one worth considering.
She was quite impressive when beating Klassical Dream last time - though it did feel as if that was mainly down to him under-performing..
4:10
This is another big field handicap, which doesn’t look as competitive as the number of runners would suggest - though again, most of the ‘right’ horses are at the top of the market…
It’s unusual to see a 10 year heading the betting for a Cheltenham handicap - but Celebre D’allen is an unusual 10 year old !
Originally trained by David Pipe, she spent a couple of years in France, but hadn’t run for over 2 years, prior to making a winning debut for Philip Hobbs at Haydock in December.
That was over hurdles - and he followed up later that month at the same course, again over the smaller obstacles.
He then switched to fences and won a decent race at Warwick on his most recent start.
He was impressive that day - held up at the back, before making smooth headway and ultimately winning cosily.
Needless to say, his mark has risen on the back of those 3 successes - from 120 to 141 - but the handicapper is still guessing, with regard to his ability.
The Glancing Queen and Imperial Alcazar are next in the betting - and they have more conventional profiles.
The former is a progressive mare, who ran really well last time, when runner up to L’Homme Presse over course and distance.
She had won two mares events prior to that, suggesting she is going to be a better chaser than she was hurdler (and she was a fair hurdler).
Imperial Alcazar is also a progressive novice.
He finished runner up on his first 2 starts over fences, before coming good on his third chase start, when bolting up in a decent handicap over course and distance.
He really was a revelation that day - and whilst an 8lb rating rise will make things tougher for him, it’s hard to argue with.
Grand Paradis is yet another interesting novice.
He has gradually improved with experience - and his last 2 efforts suggest he is capable of going well in a race of this nature.
Outside the top 4 in the betting, it’s hard to find many with strong credentials.
The likes of Coole Cody, Simply the Betts and Fusil Raffles, should all run well - but equally, shouldn’t really be capable of winning a race of this nature off their current marks.
Stolen Silver is probably the most interesting of those at bigger prices - provided his latest effort at Wincanton is ignored.
Prior to that, he had finished fourth to Edwardstone in the Henry VIII novice chase - and run Editeur de Gite close at Cheltenham.
They are both strong pieces of form and if he can get back to that level, he could well be involved at the finish.
4:50
It’s fair to say that this is one of the less attractive betting races of the week, with 22 unexposed mares competing against each other.
Willie Mullins has a tremendous record in the race, having won 5 of the 6 renewals - and he saddles no less than 7 in this years race - including the 2 at the head of the market…
Dinoblue hacked up on her only outing, at Thurles in January - and has evidently been saved for this race since.
She was well fancied that day - sent off an even money favourite against 12 more experienced rivals - and she couldn’t have been more impressive in wining by 15 lengths, hard held.
It’s impossible to tell how good she is - but the suggestion is that she is very useful…
Brandy Love is disputing favouritism with her - and it’s a bit easier to get a handle on her, after 4 runs under rules.
She followed up a debut win at Fairyhouse, by finishing third in the mares bumper at last years Dublin Racing festival.
She then won on her seasonal debut over hurdles at Naas, before running an astonishing race last time in a grade 3 mares race at Punchestown.
She only managed to finish second that day - but gave away lengths by continually jumping to her left.
That will need to have been sorted out if she is to win this - but that fact she could get so close, having run in such an errant manner, speaks volumes for her ability.
In addition to that pair, Willie also saddles Grangee (who beat Brandy Love in the bumper at the DRF); Statuaire (who won the grade 1 Royal Bond); Heia and Hors Piste (both of whom are totally unexposed and won maidens on their most recent starts) - and Braganza (who does look a little limited).
Suffice to say, if he doesn’t saddle the winner of this race for the sixth time, it will be a bit if a surprise !
If Willies runners do come up short, then Gordon Elliott looks the one most likely to take advantage.
He run Party Central and Say Goodbye - and they finished first and second in a good quality mares handicap at the Dublin Racing festival.
Party Central came out on top that day - but a 5lb pull may enable her strong finishing stablemate to reverse the form this time.
5:30
The Kim Muir tends to be a race for ‘plots’ - and there certainly look to be a few lurking in the field for this years race !
Frontal Assault has been the subject of an ante-post plunge.
He finished second to Floueur in a decent novice chase at Fairyhouse on his most recent start - but clearly connections think he can step up on that.
In truth, he’ll have to. It’s not bad form - but the winner hardly advertised it in the Ultima on the opening day.
Second Favourite, Aint that a Shame is equally unexposed.
He too has only run in 3 novice chases, so has plenty of scope for improvement.
His form reads a little better than that of Frontal Assault.
He finished third to Stattler and runner up to Galopin Des Champs, before again finishing runner up, to Champagne Platinum (when he was a little unlucky not to win).
School Boy Hours is a very different type.
He won the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas - and that is top class handicap chase form.
It looks as if he has been saved for this race - and whilst he will have to defy a 9lb higher mark, the booking of Derek O Connor is very positive move.
Jamie Codd riding Smoking Gun is another positive jockey booking - though I’m not quite as keen on the horse.
Whilst Mister Fogpatches is a very solid contender - and Patrick Mullins will doubtless give him every chance.
Come on Teddy, Mister Coffey and Omar Maretti look the most interesting of the home defence.
Come on Teddy finished third in last years Pertemps final - and must have a chance off a mark just 3lb higher.
He has done well over fences this season: winning on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter, before running fifth to L’Homme Presse over an unsuitably short trip at Cheltenham.
He finished runner up to Omar Maretti on his most recent start at Newcastle - and at the revised weights, should be able to reverse the form.
That said, the winner subsequently followed up at Catterick - and is clearly on an upward curve.
He’s an ex PTPer, who has only run under rules 5 times, showing improved form on each occasion.
Mister Coffey is quite interesting, stepping up in trip.
He has long been considered a very good horse - and is gradually starting to deliver.
There is a chance that 3 miles could be the making of him - and if that’s the case, he’s almost certainly well handicapped on a mark of 137.
Half chances can be given to plenty of the outsiders - and with the variable of amateur jockeys in the equation, a long priced winner is not out of the question (though I’ve not yet figured out which horse might provide it !)
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