They race tomorrow, at Haydock, Ascot, Huntingdon & Gowran Park - and there
will be some good horses on show.
However field sizes are tight -
particularly in the races covered on terrestrial TV.
A lot of that is down
to the lack of recent rain - as connections are unwilling to risk some of their
better horses on the unseasonably quick ground.
As a consequence, I
might have to spread the net a little wider tomorrow, in the attempt to find
some bets.
There are a few decent supporting races on the under-cards at
both Haydock and Ascot - so I’ll preview those, and hope the markets are
sufficiently strong in the morning (I think they should be).
As usual,
I’ll issue any Best bets just after 9:00 - and send the Matrix bets (plus any
other best bets) at around 10:30…
Haydock
12:40
Whilst this race isn’t on terrestrial TV, it looks one of the more
likely betting races on the day, so I’m keen to cover it…
Amateur and
Defuture is Bright, head the early betting - but I think the bookmakers are
guessing !
Amateur can be given a chance, based on his win in the Welsh
Wales national in April - but first time out, off an 11lb higher mark, he’s
going to have his work cut out to follow up.
Defuture is Bright has a
chance, off a feather weight (and with a 3lb claimer in the saddle). However, he
disappointed last time at Cheltenham - so will need to bounce back from that
(which he may well do).
In fact, on Cheltenham form, he could struggle to be
beat Furius de Ciergues.
He finished well ahead of Defutre is Bright - and
even though he is 7lb worse off tomorrow, that may not be sufficient for the
form to be reversed.
Furius de Ciergues is a bit of a strange one - as he is
the youngest horse in the race (at 6) - but quite exposed.
That said, he
does seem to be improving with experience, and looks likely to relish tomorrows
extreme test.
Captain Drake is quite interesting - despite carrying joint
top weight.
He finished fourth in last seasons Welsh Grand National and that
is strong form.
He also runs off a mark 5lb lower tomorrow - and should
handle the quick ground.
The issue with him is he’s very inconsistent (and I
can’t see a pattern !), so it’s hard to know which Captain Drake will turn up.
The final one on my short-list is Eclair Mag.
He beat Mac Tottie on his
UK debut in January - and was placed on his 2 other starts last season.
Despite finishing next to last, he ran a fair race on his return at Carlisle
last month, and off a mark just 6lb higher than the one he won from, has
definitely got a chance…
1:15 This race also isn’t on
terrestrial TV - but again, it has a nice shape for betting…
Our
Surprise ran an amazing race at Wetherby last time, on his handicap debut (it’s
worth a watch !).
He gave away the outside to no-one and pulled like a train
- and yet, still cruised in the lead before the final hurdle.
Ultimately, he
didn’t have sufficient in reserve to hold off Haafapiece - but he still ran on
well - and put distance between himself and the third placed horse.
He’s
been raised 3lb for his effort - but if he runs a more efficient race tomorrow,
he’s going to take a lot of beating…
Mackenburg finished third in the
Wetherby race - and he too ran well, on what was both his seasonal and handicap
debut.
He travelled much more smoothly than Our Surprise - and looked the
one to beat when he took up the running, at the top of the straight.
Maybe
he needed the outing - but he was then comfortably put in his place by the first
two home.
He meets Our Surprise on 3lb better terms tomorrow - but at face
value, that shouldn’t be enough to reverse the form.
Calico must have a
chance for the Skeltons.
He was sent off fav for the Welsh Champion hurdle
on his seasonal debut - but ran disappointingly.
He’s been dropped 3lb for
that run; a tongue tie has been applied - and he is stepped up half a mile in
trip.
Whether any/all of those actions will have the desired effect, remains
to be seen…
Tommys Oscar ran well last time, when third to Bass Rock at
Carlisle.
That said, the betting expected him to do better - and there is a
chance that the handicapper has him where he wants him…
The same is probably
true of Christopher Wood - unless the step up in trip enables him to eke out a
bit of improvement.
1:50 Bravemansgame is the great
English hope in the novice chasing department, this season…
He was a high
class novice hurdler last season - even though he came up a bit short at the 2
big spring festivals.
He made his chasing debut in an intermediate chase at
Newton Abbot last month and barely put a foot wrong, in comprehensively beating
Fussil Raffles.
He was favoured by the weights that day - but it was still a
very good performance for a chasing debutante.
There can be little doubt
that he will take high rank over fences - and he is definitely the one to beat
in this…
His main opponent appears to be Itchy Feet.
He’s a very decent
chaser, who has threatened on a few occasions to be top class - but just doesn’t
seem able to take that next step.
His rating of 155 is about right - putting
him at the top end of the handicap - but just below graded level.
He
therefore should provide a stern test for Bravemansgame - particularly if he
improves further (which he may do, as he’s still only 7).
Pay the Piper is
the other one of interest.
He’s rated a stone below Itchy Feet - but will be
receiving 7lb - and is still improving.
He ran well on his most recent start
at Carlisle, when runner up to Fiddlerontheroof.
Like Itchy Feet, he will be
vulnerable if Bravemansgame lives up to expectations - but in receipt of 3lb,
he’ll should also provide the favourite with a fair test.
2:25As you’d expect with £100K on offer, this race is
very competitive.
It also looks as if the top 2 horses in the market, have
been layed out for it.
Riggs and Rightplacerightime, are disputing
favouritism - and both are under the care of trainers who know how to target a
race (and probably have done just that !).
Riggs is trained by Dan Skelton,
who as recently as Sunday, brought back West Cork, from nearly 2 years off the
track, to win the Greatwood hurdle.
By comparison, Riggs has had a much more
conventional preparation…
He was a fair novice hurdler last season, and
finished runner up in the NH novice final at Sandown in March (which is
invariably a strong race).
He made his seasonal debut at Aintree last month
and was an eye catching fifth to Mackelduff.
The step up in trip tomorrow is
likely to see him produce a career best - though in fairness, he will need to,
if he’s to win…
Rightplacerrightime, is nearly impossible to assess.
Previously trained by Kevin O’Donnel, he transferred in the care of Emmet
Mullins over the summer.
He’s run in 3 chases for Mullins, winning the most
recent one at Fairyhouse.
He’s been given a mark of 125 for his UK debut -
but the handicapper is guessing.
He’s rated 108 over hurdles in Ireland -
but last autumn, split 2 horses who are both now rated 140+.
The booking of
7lb claimer, Harry Kimber looks very significant - and it’s quite possible, that
connections have found the perfect replacement for The Shunter.
Time will
tell !
Orbys Legend is a young progressive horse, who was an impressive
winner of the Tote Silver trophy, on his seasonal debut.
That was a strong
race - and he took the field apart in the style of a much improved horse.
An
8lb rise doesn’t look overly harsh - particularly as he could improve for the
step up in trip.
Flight Deck and Bass Rock both look like improvers - but
equally, the handicapper has reacted to their recent wins and neither looks as
progressive as Orbys Legend.
Dans le Vent has a definite chance - stepped up
in trip to 3 miles for the first time.
He’s shown consistent form in good
class handicaps over shorter trips - and it’s quite possible that the extra
distance will elicit some improvement.
If the Cap Fits is quite interesting,
dropped into handicap company for the first time.
He’s a grade 1 winner, who
has been rated as high as 166 (and probably merited that), so off a mark of 149,
he has to be of some interest.
It’s a little bit odd that Winningseverything
finished a neck in front of Riggs at Aintree, when the pair made their seasonal
debuts - and he will meet him on the same terms tomorrow.
Yet whilst Riggs
is vying for favouritism - Winningseverything is an unconsidered 40/1 shot !
Such a price disparity seems crazy - but logic is often absent in the
betting world !
3:00
The Betfair chase is the first grade
1 NH race run in England this season.
Bristol de Mai has won 3 of the past 4
runnings - and finished second on the other occasion - and he has every chance
of getting up the 4-timer tomorrow.
There is little argument that Haydock is
his course; whilst he is also a horse who performs best, first time out.
The
question mark over him, surrounds the ground - as the commonly held belief is
that he needs it heavy.
However, looking at his form, this isn’t really
backed up.
Whilst his stand out performance was on heavy ground (in the 2017
running of this race), he’s been remarkably consistent in terms of the level he
has run to - regardless of the ground.
Of course, he has no issue with heavy
- whilst plenty of others can’t handle it - and that’s probably why he appears
to perform better when conditions are gruelling.
However, even on decent
ground tomorrow, I think he sets a standard which few will be able to surpass..
A Plus Tard might. He was a revelation last season, when stepped up to 3
miles: Winning the Savills chase and finishing runner up in the Gold cup.
If
he can replicate that level of form, he may just be able to get the better of
Bristol - the question is, first time up, will he be at his best…
Waiting
Patiently is interesting on his debut for Christian Williams.
Formerly
trained by Ruth Jefferson, he’s shown himself a high class animal on a number of
occasions.
However, he is also a fragile one - so he doesn’t get to see the
course very often.
He should have no issue with tomorrows ground or trip -
so if Williams has found the key to him, it will be no surprise to see him run
well.
Next Destination and Royal Pagaille are both good horses - but whether
they will be at their best, first time out, on decent ground, remains to be
seen.
The ground shouldn’t be an issue for Imperial Aura and he can also go
well fresh.
However, a step up in trip will need to produce an improvement
on his previous level of form, if he is to feature.
Chatham Street Lad and
Clondaw Castle are rightly the two outsiders in the field, as both have at
least a stone to find on official ratings.
However, they are decent horses
who will be race fit and should handle conditions.
It wouldn’t be a major
surprise if either one managed to hit the frame (even if winning, should prove
slightly beyond them).
3:35This race has a very obvious
look to it - but I wonder…
Strictlyadancer seems to stand out, on the
back of his good win at Cheltenham, last weekend.
He’s only 7lb higher in
the ratings tomorrow - and that certainly doesn’t look overly harsh.
Furthermore, he remains right at the bottom of the handicap - and as an
improving 7 year old, he retains plenty of scope.
What he hasn’t got at the
moment, is proven class - unlike topweight Ramses de Teille.
He won a class
1 handicap at Cheltenham, just over a year ago - and will be racing off a 2lb
lower mark tomorrow (plus his riders 3lb allowance).
That suggests he is
well handicapped - plus, there is no substitute for class !
On the flip
side, I suspect he would prefer softer ground - whilst he will still have to
lumber almost 12 stone round.
It’s very hard to compare the relative merits
of the 2 market leaders - and whilst it is likely that one of them will win,
neither one strikes me as bomb proof.
As a consequence, there may be an
opportunity for one of the longer priced horses - the tricky bit is figuring
which one…
Empire Steel could be anything.
He hammered Protektorat at
Kelso last season - and if that form could be taken literally, he would be
thrown in off a mark of 140.
However, I doubt that form can be taken
literally…
He still might be well handicapped - but there is a lot of
guesswork required (and it’s also his first run of the season).
I can’t see
Potters Corner being quick enough to win a race over 3 miles on decent ground -
so I’d pass on him.
The ground will suit Fidux - and he should run well.
However, he’s much more likely to place, than he is to win.
Mr Muldoon could
be interesting, as he will love the quick ground - and may get an uncontested
lead (unless Ramses de Teille decides otherwise).
However, he disappointed
last time - and it’s hard to know just how well handicapped he actually is.
Joke Dancer is the final runner - but he’s very hard to asses, stepped up to
3 miles for the first time.
I guess he may respond well to it - though all
of his best form has been over the minimum trip….
Ascot
1:30
Dan Skelton & Bridget Andrews teamed up to
provide the winner of this race 12 months ago - and there is every chance they
will repeat the dose tomorrow.
Martha Brae is their representative this time
round - and she made a big impression on her stable debut at Exeter, at the
start of this month.
Admittedly, it wasn’t the greatest ever race that she
won - but she couldn’t have done it much easier - and a 7lb rating rise may not
stop her from following up.
Empressive Lady is one who I could be interested
in - in slightly different circumstances.
She won well at Sandown last
December - and her subsequent second to Molly Ollys Wishes, is strong form.
She disappointed on her only other run of the season, at Haydock in April -
but that was on quicker ground.
That could again be an issue tomorrow and
along with the fact that she’ll be making her seasonal debut, is likely to be
sufficient for me to take a watching brief…
Get the Appeal, makes some
appeal :)
She was progressive at the back end of last season, prior to a
disappointing final run at Chepstow.
She’d probably gone over the top - and
whilst she was again beaten on her seasonal debut earlier this month at Kempton,
I think that can also be excused.
For a start, she didn’t run badly in
finishing second - and it was her first try over fences.
It’s interesting
that she is switched back to hurdles tomorrow - and that 7lb claimer Ben Bromley
takes the ride.
Coillte Eile is the final one of interest.
She won this
race 2 years ago - and again ran well in it last year, when finishing third.
She will be running off a 7lb lower mark tomorrow - and has almost certainly
been targeted at it.
She may not be quite good enough to win, but I
certainly won’t be surprised if she out runs her dismissive odds.
2:05
The first of two grade 2 races on the card - this
one is a puzzle within a conundrum !
There are good reasons why all of the
runners can’t win - but equally, a case can be made for each of them.
Dashel Drasher is the early favourite - but first time out, on
unsuitably quick ground, he looks vulnerable.
On the flip side, he won 3
races at Ascot last season - including a grade 1 on his final start (when he
beat Master Tommytucker and Bennys King).
He will have to carry a 6lb
penalty for that win - and that will make life even harder for him.
On
balance, he doesn’t look the right favourite to me..
Defi de Seuil is next
in the market.
On official adjusted ratings, he is the best horse in the
race - the question is whether he can run to his rating.
He’s not run
anywhere near his best, for nearly 2 years - and whilst the has only run 3 times
during that period, there have to be concerns over how much ability remains.
He returns tomorrow on the back of a wind op - and if that’s done the trick,
he is likely to win.
However, he is now probably dining at the last chance
saloon…
It’s a similar story with Lostintranslation.
He almost won the
Gold cup 2 seasons ago - but showed next to nothing in 4 runs last season.
In fairness, most of his stable were in a slump - so it may not have been
all about him.
If he is back to his best, then he will probably win (unless
Defi de Seuil is also back to his best !) - but he is a risky betting
proposition.
Master Tommytucker is arguably the most solid option - as he
consistently ran to a good level last season - and also ran better than his
finishing position suggests on his return to action at the end of last month.
In short, he should run his race - and whilst he really ought not to be able
to concede 6lb to most of his rivals - if none of them run to form, he will !
A similar case can be made for Bennys King.
He shouldn’t be able to beat
Dashel Drasher based on their form form last season - but he shouldn’t be far
behind Master Tommytucker.
He too has had a run this season - and is likely
to have come on for it.
Pistol Whipped will be making his seasonal debut -
and shouldn’t really be good enough.
That said, he improved throughout last
season - and goes well fresh.
As a 153 rated chaser, it will be
disappointing if he’s good enough to take a grade 2 race - but it’s not
completely impossible…
Ultimately, if you choose to get involved with
this race, I think it’s a question of rolling the dice and hoping for the best !
2:40
The Coral hurdle is slightly easier to predict -
though everything is relative !
Buzz has been installed a short priced
favourite on the back of a second to Abracadabras at Aintree last year - and an
impressive win in the Cesarewitch on the flat, last month.
I guess it’s hard
to argue with him being favourite - as they are both strong pieces of form. He
also seems to be improving.
That said, he doesn’t have a great deal in hand
of the field on official ratings - and a price of 5/4 seems a little short…
Goshen has to concede 6lb to Buzz - and that may be too much.
However,
he remains a horse of enormous potential - and I’m certainly disinclined to
write him off, just yet.
The way he quickened clear of the Triumph hurdle
field in 2020, marked him out as a potentially special horse.
And he
confirmed that when destroying Song for Someone at Wincanton, last season.
Ofcourse surrounding those 2 runs, are a host of disappointing ones - but
there can be little doubt, that he does have a huge amount of talent.
Whether we will see it tomorrow, is the question.
I suspect, probably
not - but if we do, he’ll take a bit of beating.
Molly Ollys Wishes and Song
for Someone, are both solid, improving sorts…
The former progressed through
the ranks last season - and put up a personal best when winning first time out
this season, at Wetherby.
Tomorrows race represents a steep step up in class
- but she deserves a chance.
Song for Someone won the corresponding race 12
months ago - and then went on to take the International hurdle at Cheltenham.
That suggested he might be borderline Champion hurdle class - but he was
subsequently hammered by Goshen at Wincanton - and pulled up behind Buzz at
Aintree.
The jury is now out - but if a wind op. enables him to recover his
former powers, he should run well.
Guard Your Dreams is the final runner.
He was impressive when winning at Cheltenham on his return - and the form of
that race has been heavily franked since.
However, it was just a class 3
handicap - so he’s taking a massive leap in class tomorrow.
Even on running
in the Betfair hurdle last February - he’s a stone inferior to Buzz - and that
one has improved markedly since.
In short, whilst he’s likely to run well -
it’s hard to see how he will beat the favourite…
3:15
The
Ascot races get no easier to solve, as you go through the card !
There just
the 7 runners for this handicap - but sorting them out is not easy.
Before Midnight is the early favourite, on the back of an impressive
comeback win at Cheltenham.
He beat Sky Pirate by 6 lengths that day - and
whilst an 8lb rating rise should enable the latter to close the gap, he’s not
sure to reverse the form.
Sky Pirate was a revelation last season, having
been switched back to 2 miles.
He hacked up in a couple of decent handicaps
- and then took the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival off a mark of 152.
That suggested he is borderline graded class - and his return run behind
Before Midnight didn’t contradict that.
It’ll be interesting to see how he
gets on tomorrow - because if he does win, he will probably have to move into
graded company for the remainder of the season…
Amoola Gold and Monsieur
Lecoq fought out the finish to a similar race to this, at the last Ascot
meeting.
Monsieur Lecoq looked sure to win that race - but idled on the run
in and Amoola Gold caught him in the shadows of the post.
It’s very tempting
to think that Monsieur Lecoq will reverse the form tomorrow (he really should
have won) - but Amoola Gold has a very good record at Ascot and was also making
his seasonal debut (so should improve).
There probably won’t be much between
the pair, once again….
Sully Doc also ran in that race and he finished well
beaten in fifth.
However, he travelled well to a point and may have need the
run (it was his first of the season).
He will be 6lb better off with the
winner tomorrow - and at very least, I would expect him to close the gap.
He
was a progressive horse last season - and will be suited by the likely quick
ground.
Dego de Charmil and Dolos represent Paul Nicholls
Both should
appreciate tomorrows ground - but they also look a touch high in the handicap.
