It was good to see decent fields declared for the Newbury winter carnival - both on Friday and Saturday.
There is a threat of some rain on Friday morning - which isn’t ideal in the short-term - but it will hopefully help a little with field sizes over the next few weeks…
There is also racing at Doncaster on Friday - but with so much going on over the next few days, I need to stay focused on the big races !
ITV3 are covering 5 races on the opening day of the Newbury meeting - so I’ve previewed all 5.
I’ve also previewed the novice chase, which precedes those races.
As a reminder, any Best bets tomorrow will be sent just after 9:00 - with the Matrix bets around 10:30 (ie. usual timings)
Newbury
12:40
Whilst it’s not on terrestrial TV - and there are only 4 runners, this is still a cracking contest.
All 4 are relatively unexposed - with the potential to make up into seriously good horses.
I was really impressed by Pic D’Orhy when he won at Ffos Las, last month - and I would just about make him favourite for this (which is interesting, as he’s the outsider of the field, in the early betting !).
He’s a second season novice - and whilst he was a little disappointing last year, he looked a different horse at Ffos Las.
In fairness, this is a stronger race - so he will need to up his game again, but I’m pretty sure we’ve not yet seen the best of him.
Millers Bank was also really impressive when making a winning chasing debut at Huntingdon.
He took his form to a new level when finishing third in a grade 1 hurdle at last seasons Aintree Grand National meeting - and the way he won at Huntingdon suggested that was no fluke.
Again, he is likely to need to progress further, if he is to win tomorrow - but that’s quite possible.
The 4 year old, Nassalam, was also impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Ascot.
He only just got home in front - but as he jumped left throughout, the winning margin probably didn’t reflect his superiority.
Tomorrows apposition is stronger than at Ascot - but this time he will be going the right way (left handed !).
He will also again have the 4 year old weight allowance (9lb) which could prove key.
Tea Clipper is the final runner - and he too was impressive when making a winning chasing debut at Chepstow,
The issues with him are that he has to concede weight to all of his rivals - and he may be best caught fresh.
I think he should be the outsider of the field - but I still couldn’t dismiss his chance.
All in all, a fascinating race - and one which could well throw up a very good horse…
1:15
It’s a bit of a shame that they chosen to show this race on ITV, rather than the preceding one.
It’s a novice hurdle - and whilst it’s not bad as novice hurdles go - it’s not a great betting medium.
The betting is dominated by Douvans brother, Jonbon.
He won a bumper at the course in March - having previously won his only PTP at Dromahane.
He really could be anything - and that fact that he’s a full brother to one of the most talented NH horses of the past decade, means that he’s going to be priced up short, every time he runs, until is bubble is popped ! (assuming it ever is)
His bumper form doesn’t match that of Good Risk at All, who won a strong listed bumper over the course in February.
However, he disappointed on his hurdling debut at Chepstow earlier this month - so now has a bit to prove.
My inclination would be to forgive him that run - and at the likely odds, I suspect he will be a fair bet against the favourite…
Although one of the pair will probably win, it’s not categorically a 2 horse race…
Boombawn is quite interesting for the Skeltons, following a fair hurdling debut at the course, 3 weeks ago; whilst Charlies Glance was quite impressive when winning a bumper at he course in March (and was very well backed to do so).
1:50
This looks a particularly hot novice handicap chase…
Boothill heads the early betting - which is hardly surprising.
He was sent off 5/2 fav for a strong 15 runner class 1 handicap hurdle, at Ascot on his seasonal debut last month - despite only having previously run once over hurdles (when winning a novice at Taunton).
Ultimately, he proved no match for Soaring Glory - but he travelled through the race very strongly.
That’s top class handicap hurdle form - and, it’s quite reasonable to think that Boothill will improve for the switch to fences.
It’s hard to be adamant about his mark - but the suspicion is that a rating of 136 significantly under-estimates him.
I suspect he’ll want further than 2 miles in time - but he still looks the one to beat.
Mister Coffey looks a big danger.
He’s very well thought of - and hacked up on his seasonal debut at Sandown, 12 months ago.
He was beaten in his next 3 races - but wasn’t disgraced in any of them - and they were much stronger races.
He too looks the sort to do better over fences - and whilst he may not have quite the scope of Boothill, a mark of 138 probably under-estimates him…
Fifty Ball finished runner up in last seasons Betfair hurdle - and shaped with promise on his chasing debut at Sandown 3 weeks ago.
He should have no problem picking up a novice handicap chase - but it might not be this one !
Solo bounced back to form on his chasing debut at Ascot, having disappointed over hurdles last season.
He jumped really well at Ascot - though there is a slight concern that he may be a horse who’s best caught fresh (that was his seasonal debut).
L’Homme Presse is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s relatively inexperienced - but looked good when winning a novice hurdle at Chepstow in April, on his debut for Venetia.
He disappointed a little on his only other run last season - when unplaced in a handicap at Sandown - but he could easily bounce back tomorrow.
The problem he faces, is that this looks to be a particularly strong contest..
2:25
This is another race, where the head of the market looks strong…
Fanion Destruval could be a graded horse in a handicap - and if he is, then even with top weight, he’s likely to win…
He ran in graded company 4 times last season - and whilst he wasn’t good enough to be seriously involved in any of the races, he still ran with credit.
His best effort was probably a fourth placing in the grade 1 Clarence house chase at Ascot.
That was particularly noteworthy, as it was over 2 miles - and Fanion Destruval looks as if he needs at least half a mile further.
He got that test on his seasonal return at Aintree, and finished like a train to take fourth behind Allmankind in the Old Roan chase.
He’s been dropped a pound for that effort - and if he repeats it, I suspect he will win.
Phoenix Way is a tough one to assess. He’s very talented - but equally, quite fragile.
As a consequence it’s reasonable to expect him to be spot on tomorrow (despite it being his seasonal debut).
His fourth in a grade 1 at Aintree last spring, is very good form - and in receipt of 7lb from Fanion, he could well be dangerous.
Umbrgiado won a similar race over course and distance in March - and must have a good chance of at least placing tomorrow, off a mark just 2lb higher.
He was a good third to Hunters Call over hurdles at Bangor, 3 weeks ago - and that should have put him spot on for tomorrow.
It’s hard to see him not running well.
Nevilles Cross looks the most interesting of the outsiders.
He has won 3 of his last 4 starts - and is clearly on the upgrade.
Tomorrows race represents a significant step up in class - but it’s impossible to be adamant that he won’t be able to handle it.
3:00
The high-light of the card, is the Grade 2 long distance hurdle.
Paisley Park will be trying to get his career back on track, after a few disappointing runs.
He was a beaten fav in the stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - and then pulled up at Aintree, the following month.
He made his seasonal return at Wetherby last month - but was badly outpaced, before staying on to claim third behind Indefatigable.
Cheek pieces are applied tomorrow - and that strikes me as a good move.
He’s also likely to be well suited by Newburys long home straight.
Twelve months ago, he would have been 1/2 for this race - yet he’s been put in a 2/1.
Whether that’s a good price, is likely to depend on the impact of the head gear…
Indefatigable is the second favourite tomorrow - and she put up a personal best last time.
However, everything was in her favour that day: she was fit from a spin on the flat - and received nearly a stone from the less fit, Paisley Park.
That concession is halved tomorrow - and even just looking at weights and lengths, she could be hard pressed to confirm the form.
Add in the fitness and the cheek pieces - and it’s not hard to see the form being reversed.
It’s possible to make half cases for the other 4 - even if there are question marks over each of them.
Mrs Milner is probably the most interesting, as she still appears to be on the upgrade.
However she will need to show improved form if she is to win, as she’s badly in with most of her rivals, based on handicap ratings.
Theoretical chances can be given to Lisnagar Oscar and Thomas Derby - though I suspect they’ll only be winning if the principals under-perform: whilst On the Blind Side has a lot to do, under a penalty, on his seasonal return (even if he does hold Mrs Milner, on their running at Cheltenham, a year ago).
3:35
The biggest field of the day - and a race which lends itself to being sifted through..!
Dolphin Square sets the standard.
He was sent off fav for the race 2 years ago, when a 5 year old - and finished a creditable fourth.
He then finished runner up in a similar race over course and distance, just over a year ago.
That was off a mark of 137 - but he gets to run tomorrow off a mark of 134.
He ran off that mark, when second at Lingfield on his seasonal return - and if he can build on that tomorrow, it’s hard to see how he won’t go very close…
Fergal saddles 2 of his main dangers, in the shape of Eyeofthescorpion and Polish.
Paddy rides the former, which suggests he is the stables main hope.
He finished runner up last time at Ffos Las, on his first run for Fergal.
That was a good effort - and if he can build on that, he must have a decent chance, running off the same mark.
Polish won a similar race over course and distance in February - and whilst he is 5lb higher tomorrow, that looks fair enough.
Again, it’s hard to see why he won’t run well.
In addition to Dolphin Square, Philip Hobbs also runs One for You and Umndeni.
Both have live chances - with One for You also having scope for further improvement.
Of the outsiders, then Alrightjack, The Cob and Slate House, look the most interesting.
The first named won last time, on his a return from a break and could be suited by the step up in trip.
The Cob will be making his seasonal debut - but showed very good form when winning a grade 2 at Doncaster in February.
He was subsequently unsighted in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival - but on opening mark of 136 looks very workable.
Slate House is a grade 1 winning chaser, who was rated 156 at his peak.
He runs tomorrow off a mark of 137 - and should be better for his first run of the season, when well beaten at Wetherby.
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