The opening day of the main season is invariably a busy one - and that’s certainly the case this year !
There are 4 NH meetings taking place: at Wetherby, Ascot, Down Royal & Musselburgh - and plenty of high class action.
I had to chuckle earlier in the week, when I looked at the forecast - and saw rain predicted for Friday/Saturday..!
Changeable weather (and consequently ground) was the scourge of last season - and it looks like little has changed !
My other big concern with regard to tomorrow, is the fitness of the runners.
We may be out of the ‘pre-season’ - but it’s still very early in the campaign for a lot of the horses that will be running tomorrow - and I suspect quite a few won’t be cherry ripe.
Guessing which ones, is never easy - so that coupled with uncertainty over the ground, is likely to see me easing gently into the new season.
Whatever bets I can find, I’ll issue tomorrow morning, after 9:00 - for now you can have my early thoughts on the days main races…
Wetherby
1:20
This is a bit of a puzzle to start things off !
A class 3 handicap chase, where it’s hard to rule many out (or in !)
Gericault Roque heads the early market.
He’s a 5 year old, making his chasing debut after just 3 runs over hurdles.
He won well enough at Sandown on his handicap debut last March; whilst his defeat of Natural History on his hurdling debut at Plumpton in January, reads well.
He could easily be thrown in off a mark of 124 - even if quite a lot of guesswork is required.
Jonjo O’Neil has been in good form recently - and his Tedham looks potentially well handicapped.
He finished third in a strong grade 3 race over hurdles, at Haydock 2 years ago - when rated 130.
He runs off a mark of 125 tomorrow, following a disappointing campaign last season - but if Jonjo has managed to get him back, he’ll be a threat to all.
Road Warrior ran a nice race on his seasonal debut over course and distance, a fortnight ago.
Ultimately he finished well beaten - but he raced with plenty of zest and should have come on for the run.
He’s been dropped 2lb for his efforts - and if he gets an uncontested lead (which is possible), he could prove tricky to pass.
Brelan Das and Caboy are both interesting, at prices…
It’s only 2 years since Brelan Das finished a narrow runner up in the Betvictor Gold cup at Cheltenham.
That was off a mark of 138 - whilst tomorrow he runs off a mark of just 112 !
In fairness, his recent form has been poor - but if he bounces back, he is weighted to take this field apart.
Caboy represents the stable of Lucinda Russell, which has been in sparkling form recently (5 wins from her last 19 runners).
Ex French, he ran reasonably during his first season in the UK, but with a summer on his back, he could well improve this campaign…
1:55
Based on official ratings, Molly Ollys Wishes is the one to beat in this.
She improved significantly through last season, with her rating rising from 125 to 145.
She should be fine with tomorrows trip and ground (particularly if it rains) - and Dan Skelton can certainly get them ready first time, if he wants to.
She sets a fair standard for the race.
Miranda has the same official rating as Molly Ollys Wishes - but has to concede 2lb.
That’s because she won a grade 2 event at Doncaster - when Maries Rock was well behind.
Like Molly Ollys Wishes, she will be making her seasonal debut - but again, trip and ground will be fine - and her trainer, Paul Nichols, is also quite capable of getting them ready first time.
Whilst Maries Rock is held in theory by Miranda on the Doncaster run, there is a chance she will be able to reverse the form tomorrow.
She ran disappointingly in both her starts last season - but a wind op over the summer, suggests there may have been a physical issue.
If that’s been revolved, then in receipt of weight she’ll be a big danger to both Miranda and Molly Ollys Wishes.
Her Indoors has a bit to find with the principals on official ratings - but she won well at Cheltenham at the end of last season and ran nicely on the flat at Nottingham, 3 weeks ago.
That run looked as if it was designed to get her straight for this and I would expect her to run a big race.
2:30
Former stayers hurdle winner Paisley Park, reappears in this race - and whilst he has to give weight to all of his rivals, at his best, he would have been more than capable of doing just that.
He won the stayers hurdle in 2019 - but was then surprisingly beaten, the following year.
His third place last season, showed most of the talent still remains - but at 9, his powers do appear to be on the wane.
The other question is whether he will be fully wound up for his seasonal debut - and up against some dangerous looking rivals, he will need to be…
On adjusted ratings, he only has 1lb in hand of Thomas Derby.
He finished well ahead of Paisley Park when the pair clashed at Aintree, last spring.
Paisley Park probably didn't run his race that day, but it was still a fine effort from Thomas Derby on his first try at 3 miles.
He’s always been a good horse - but there is a chance that staying trips will see him take his form to another level.
Again, fitness is a question mark, but if he’s ready to do himself justice, he should go close.
Indefatigable is the third runner who has a chance on adjusted ratings.
Whilst she is officially rated 15lb inferior to Paisley Park, she will receive 13lb from him tomorrow.
She also has the benefit of a recent run on the flat - which looks as if it was designed to get her spot on for this.
In truth, she lacks a bit of the quality of the market leaders - but that may well be offset by race conditions and fitness.
Master Tommytucker is interesting on his first run over hurdles for over 3 years.
He’s a high class chaser - and could well get an uncontested lead (he likes to front run over fences).
On the flip side, this looks like a pipe opener before a return to chasing - whilst the 3 mile trip could also stretch his stamina.
Run for Oscar and Proschema are both quite interesting, stepping up out of handicaps.
In theory, neither should be good enough - but Dan Skelton doesn’t tend to tilt at windmills; whilst it’s very interesting that Charles Byrnes brings over Run for Oscar (and risks ruining a decent handicap mark, if he runs well !)
3:05
Cyrname is the obvious starting point in this…
He hacked up in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and on the back of that, was sent off at just 5/2 for the King George.
However, he disappointed in that race and was pulled up - and it was a similar story in his only other race last season, when he was pulled up at Ascot, in the grade 1 Ascot chase.
As a consequence, he has a fair bit to prove tomorrow.
However, on official ratings, he is at least 9lb superior to all of his rivals - and it’s hard to think that Paul Nichols won’t have him in ready to go.
Shan Blue is the obvious one to take advantage if Cyrname runs below form.
He was a decent novice last season, winning the Grade 1 Kauto Star at Kempton over the Christmas period.
He arguably should have won at the Cheltenham festival - but Harry Skelton gave him an overly aggressive ride; he then looked over the top, when disappointing at Aintree.
Dan Skelton has targeted him at his race and whilst he has a bit to find on official ratings, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run very well.
Fusil Raffles was also a decent novice last season - and he finished well ahead of Shan Blue at the Cheltenham festival.
He also has the benefit of a run this season - when chasing home Bravesmansgame at Newton Abbot.
The main doubt with him, concerns the trip - tomorrow will be first time he has tried 3 miles.
If he stays, then he certainly has the class to be involved at the business end.
If there’s a lot of rain, then Top Ville Ben could be interesting.
He’s only run once in the past 2 years, which is a concern.
However he has a tremendous record at Wetherby (3 wins from 5 ) and is likely to try and make all.
Even if he’s not successful, such tactics will inconvenience Cryname (who also likes to front run), which is something to bear in mind, if you fancy the favourite…
3:40
The final race of interest on the Wetherby card, is another tough one to call…
Mackenburg has been installed the early favourite, on his handicap debut for Donald McCain.
It really isn’t easy to get a handle on his form - but an opening rating of 127 doesn’t look overly harsh.
Rattle Owl has even less experience - but holds slightly more appeal.
He showed a good attitude to win last time at Sedgefield - and could easily progress from that.
Again, an opening mark of 120, looks very workable - but there is plenty of guesswork required.
There’s a little less guesswork required with Bourbon Beauty, who showed herself both talented and tenacious, when wining a decent race at Newbury last spring.
She led all the way that day - and could again prove tough to pass, if she adopts the same tactics tomorrow.
However, her fitness has to be taken on trust and she will be racing from an 8lb higher mark.
Haafapiece sets the standard, having finished fourth in the corresponding race last year, off a 3lb higher mark.
If he repeats that form , he will again go close - though he’s vulnerable to an improver.
Clemencia is the final one of interest.
I quite fancied him last week, when he ran at Cheltenham. However he fell at the very first flight.
Presumably he’s none the worse for that - and this looks an easier race.
I’m always a little wary about supporting a horse after a fall - but provided he’s fully recovered from the experience, I could see him running well.
Ascot
1:35
This is a fascinating race - and all of the runners can be given a chance of sorts.
It certainly strikes me as a contest which will provide lots of winners in the forthcoming weeks.
Kid Commando has been installed the early favourite,
He was impressive when comfortably winning a decent handicap hurdle first time up last season - and should have every chance tomorrow on his chasing debut, off a 4lb higher mark.
The questions are: how well will he jump ? and how fit will he be ? Questions which apply equally to most of the runners…
Solo is probably the one that interests me most.
He won the grade 2 Adonis hurdle on his debut for Paul Nichols, and on the back of that was sent off at 4/1 for the Triumph hurdle.
However he was never sighted in that race - and it was the same story in 5 races last season !
The trouble was, he was given too high a rating, following his debut win - and ended up paying quite a price.
However, he starts this season on a mark of 135 - and that seems reasonable.
He’s also shown he can go well fresh - so if his jumping is up to scratch, I would expect him to run well.
Nassalam is interesting, as he is just 4 years old and therefore receives a 10lb weight allowance - which could be crucial.
Considering he was beaten just over 2 lengths in a grade 1 race, his mark of 140 doesn’t look harsh.
Again, if he is ready to do himself justice - and his jumping is up to scratch, then he should go very close.
Sam Barton, Sizeable Sam and Whatsupwithyou, are all interesting fencing debutantes: whilst Lord Baddersely can’t be dismissed, despite showing little on his chasing debut.
Suffice to say, whatever comes home in front is likely to be a decidedly useful novice !
2:10
This is another cracking race - but again, a very hard one to call.
Boothill has been installed the early favourite on the back of just one run over hurdles !
It seems ridiculous that he’s even competing in a listed handicap with so little experience - but Harry Fry clearly thinks he is up to it (and the market agrees !)
In truth, Fry has done similar with equally inexperienced horses in the past - and it’s paid off.
It would be hard to support Boothill - but equally, he couldn’t be easily opposed…
Soaring Glory was a comfortable winner of last seasons Betfair hurdle - and could still be competitive from a 10lb higher mark.
He also beat Bravemansgame on his seasonal debut last year, so is likely to be sufficiently fit to do himself justice.
Ajero developed in to a very useful novice last season - and could have been over the top when disappointing at Aintree on his final outing.
An opening mark of 137 certainly looks workable, whilst Kim Bailey can get them ready first time, if required…
I quite fancied Megan in the pre-season, when she ran at Chepstow.
She looked like winning that day - but fell at the third last.
Off the same mark tomorrow, she must have every chance - though this is a much tougher contest.
Of the outsiders, then I could see Elham Valley running well.
His third in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival, was a very good run - and I’d be happy enough to ignore his subsequent efforts.
Refreshed by a break, he still looks well enough handicapped to play a part.
Global Citizen is potentially very well handicapped - but that’s because he ran deplorably last season !
He’ll need to bounce back - but was placed in the 2020 Champion chase and running tomorrow off a mark 4lb lower than he ran off when winning the Geoffrey Freer hurdle 3 years ago, he is certainly handicapped to go close.
2:45
Yet another really strong handicap, in which most of the runners look to have a chance.
Sully D’oc and Editeur de Gite finished first and second in the novice race on this card 12 months ago - and then did the same (in reverse order) at Aintree, in the spring.
They are both improving fast - and whilst they have to run from much higher marks tomorrow compared to a year ago (20lb & 22lb higher respectively), neither can be dismissed over a course and distance that clearly suits them well.
Frero Banbou finished fourth to Editeur de Gite at Aintree - and will be 10lb better off tomorrow.
He travelled really well to the third last that day - and as he’s still only 6, there must be a chance that he’ll improve further this season.
Rain would doubtless suit him - and whilst Venetia hasn’t had many runners so far this season, she is more than capable of getting one ready first time.
One for Rosie looked very good in 2 races for Kim Bailey last season - but he has been punished by the handicapper and his mark of 149 leaves little margin for error.
At big prices, then both Monsieur Lecoq and Mengli Khan are of some interest.
The former finds himself a stone better off with One for Rosie for a 20 length beating at Leicester in February. He also has the benefit of a recent run under his belt.
Whilst Mengli Khan now looks attractively handicapped off a mark of 140.
On the back of two thirds in grade 1 novice events in his novice season, he was rated 154 - and whilst he has never been the most consistent, he certainly has more ability than his current mark implies.
A lot will depend on where Nicky Henderson has him, after his summer break…
3:20
Vindication bolted up in this race 2 years ago - and sets the standard for tomorrows contest.
Admittedly he’ll be 7lb higher, but that probably wouldn’t have stopped him from winning that day and I doubt he has deteriorated much since then (he’s still only 8).
On the flip side, it will be harder for him tomorrow - and he faces some potentially challenging apposition.
Chief amongst his rivals is Johnbb.
He improved throughout last season, culminating in a fine second to Happygolucky at Aintree.
Tom Lacey has had his horses in particularly good form this autumn - and as Johnbb is only 7, there must a distinct chance that he will have improved again from last year.
Jerrysback has run well at Ascot on a number of occasions - and the handicapper has given him a chance, dropping him to a mark of 138.
Philip Hobbs has also had his string in good form, and I would expect Jerrysback to be right in the mix.
Half cases can be made for most of the others: either because they are potentially well handicapped based on old form - or because they are relatively unexposed.
Both One more Fleurie and Checkitout are 7 year olds, who could be capable of significant improvement this season; the former in particular, was on a steep upward curve last season.
By contrast, Real Steel and Glen Forsa could be on very good marks - if they can recapture their old form.
Real Steel looked like winning the 2020 Gold cup - until his stamina gave out on the run to the second last; whilst Glen Forsa was competitive off a mark of 150 a couple of seasons back - but debuts for Charlie Longsdon tomorrow, off a mark of just 137…
1:35
This is a fascinating race - and all of the runners can be given a chance of sorts.
It certainly strikes me as a contest which will provide lots of winners in the forthcoming weeks.
Kid Commando has been installed the early favourite,
He was impressive when comfortably winning a decent handicap hurdle first time up last season - and should have every chance tomorrow on his chasing debut, off a 4lb higher mark.
The questions are: how well will he jump ? and how fit will he be ? Questions which apply equally to most of the runners…
Solo is probably the one that interests me most.
He won the grade 2 Adonis hurdle on his debut for Paul Nichols, and on the back of that was sent off at 4/1 for the Triumph hurdle.
However he was never sighted in that race - and it was the same story in 5 races last season !
The trouble was, he was given too high a rating, following his debut win - and ended up paying quite a price.
However, he starts this season on a mark of 135 - and that seems reasonable.
He’s also shown he can go well fresh - so if his jumping is up to scratch, I would expect him to run well.
Nassalam is interesting, as he is just 4 years old and therefore receives a 10lb weight allowance - which could be crucial.
Considering he was beaten just over 2 lengths in a grade 1 race, his mark of 140 doesn’t look harsh.
Again, if he is ready to do himself justice - and his jumping is up to scratch, then he should go very close.
Sam Barton, Sizeable Sam and Whatsupwithyou, are all interesting fencing debutantes: whilst Lord Baddersely can’t be dismissed, despite showing little on his chasing debut.
Suffice to say, whatever comes home in front is likely to be a decidedly useful novice !
2:10
This is another cracking race - but again, a very hard one to call.
Boothill has been installed the early favourite on the back of just one run over hurdles !
It seems ridiculous that he’s even competing in a listed handicap with so little experience - but Harry Fry clearly thinks he is up to it (and the market agrees !)
In truth, Fry has done similar with equally inexperienced horses in the past - and it’s paid off.
It would be hard to support Boothill - but equally, he couldn’t be easily opposed…
Soaring Glory was a comfortable winner of last seasons Betfair hurdle - and could still be competitive from a 10lb higher mark.
He also beat Bravemansgame on his seasonal debut last year, so is likely to be sufficiently fit to do himself justice.
Ajero developed in to a very useful novice last season - and could have been over the top when disappointing at Aintree on his final outing.
An opening mark of 137 certainly looks workable, whilst Kim Bailey can get them ready first time, if required…
I quite fancied Megan in the pre-season, when she ran at Chepstow.
She looked like winning that day - but fell at the third last.
Off the same mark tomorrow, she must have every chance - though this is a much tougher contest.
Of the outsiders, then I could see Elham Valley running well.
His third in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival, was a very good run - and I’d be happy enough to ignore his subsequent efforts.
Refreshed by a break, he still looks well enough handicapped to play a part.
Global Citizen is potentially very well handicapped - but that’s because he ran deplorably last season !
He’ll need to bounce back - but was placed in the 2020 Champion chase and running tomorrow off a mark 4lb lower than he ran off when winning the Geoffrey Freer hurdle 3 years ago, he is certainly handicapped to go close.
2:45
Yet another really strong handicap, in which most of the runners look to have a chance.
Sully D’oc and Editeur de Gite finished first and second in the novice race on this card 12 months ago - and then did the same (in reverse order) at Aintree, in the spring.
They are both improving fast - and whilst they have to run from much higher marks tomorrow compared to a year ago (20lb & 22lb higher respectively), neither can be dismissed over a course and distance that clearly suits them well.
Frero Banbou finished fourth to Editeur de Gite at Aintree - and will be 10lb better off tomorrow.
He travelled really well to the third last that day - and as he’s still only 6, there must be a chance that he’ll improve further this season.
Rain would doubtless suit him - and whilst Venetia hasn’t had many runners so far this season, she is more than capable of getting one ready first time.
One for Rosie looked very good in 2 races for Kim Bailey last season - but he has been punished by the handicapper and his mark of 149 leaves little margin for error.
At big prices, then both Monsieur Lecoq and Mengli Khan are of some interest.
The former finds himself a stone better off with One for Rosie for a 20 length beating at Leicester in February. He also has the benefit of a recent run under his belt.
Whilst Mengli Khan now looks attractively handicapped off a mark of 140.
On the back of two thirds in grade 1 novice events in his novice season, he was rated 154 - and whilst he has never been the most consistent, he certainly has more ability than his current mark implies.
A lot will depend on where Nicky Henderson has him, after his summer break…
3:20
Vindication bolted up in this race 2 years ago - and sets the standard for tomorrows contest.
Admittedly he’ll be 7lb higher, but that probably wouldn’t have stopped him from winning that day and I doubt he has deteriorated much since then (he’s still only 8).
On the flip side, it will be harder for him tomorrow - and he faces some potentially challenging apposition.
Chief amongst his rivals is Johnbb.
He improved throughout last season, culminating in a fine second to Happygolucky at Aintree.
Tom Lacey has had his horses in particularly good form this autumn - and as Johnbb is only 7, there must a distinct chance that he will have improved again from last year.
Jerrysback has run well at Ascot on a number of occasions - and the handicapper has given him a chance, dropping him to a mark of 138.
Philip Hobbs has also had his string in good form, and I would expect Jerrysback to be right in the mix.
Half cases can be made for most of the others: either because they are potentially well handicapped based on old form - or because they are relatively unexposed.
Both One more Fleurie and Checkitout are 7 year olds, who could be capable of significant improvement this season; the former in particular, was on a steep upward curve last season.
By contrast, Real Steel and Glen Forsa could be on very good marks - if they can recapture their old form.
Real Steel looked like winning the 2020 Gold cup - until his stamina gave out on the run to the second last; whilst Glen Forsa was competitive off a mark of 150 a couple of seasons back - but debuts for Charlie Longsdon tomorrow, off a mark of just 137…
Down Royal
2:50
It’s rare to see the previous seasons Gold cup winner on the track before November - but that’s the case with Minella Indo.
He was a fine winner of a strong Gold Cup last season - and there is no reason to think that he’s not the best 3 mile chaser in training.
However, that doesn’t mean he’ll win tomorrow !
Down Royal in October is a very different test to Cheltenham in March - and there is little doubt that the latter suits Minella Indo much better.
It remains to be seen, just how sharp he is tomorrow - you can certainly bet that Hennry de Bromhead will have left something to work on.
By contrast, his main rivals are likely to be primed to run for their lives !
Paul Nicholls would doubtless get immense pleasure from beating the Gold Cup winner - and in Frodon, he may have the horse to achieve such a thing.
Frodon was better than ever, last season - winning on his debut at Cheltenham, before taking the King George is thrilling fashion.
He’s likely to get an uncontested lead - and it really wouldn’t surprise me to see Bryony make all on him, yet again…
Both Galvin and Delta Work can be given good chances.
The former improved throughout last season - and was an impressive winner of the ‘nearly 4 miler’ at the Cheltenham festival.
He’ll be race sharp following a recent win at Punchestown - and Davy Russell is the perfect jockey to deliver him late.
Delta Work shouldn’t really be good enough - but I suspect that Gordon Elliott will have him spot on.
A bit like Nicholls, he’d love to beat the Gold Cup winner - and whilst Galvin may be his best chance of doing that, I certainly wouldn’t rule out Delta Work.
One thing's for sure, at the end of it, Minella Indo will know he’s been in a a race !
3:25
It will be great to see Envoi Allen back on the track.
Prior to last seasons Cheltenham festival, he looked like the next NH super star in waiting - but then the wheels came off…
Having won his first 11 races under rules - he fell when heavily odds on for the JLT chase.
Worse then followed at Punchestown, where he was pulled up and subsequently found to be lame…
As a consequence he returns tomorrow with a bit to prove.
If he is back to anything close to his best, then he will win - however, a doubt will remain, until he has proven his well being.
He 2 main rivals, Coko Beach and Vado Forte, are both trained by Gordon Elliott.
I would imagine that he would like to beat his former stable inmate - but realistically neither of them would be in the same class as a fully functioning Envoi Allen
Fingers crossed we get to see just that, tomorrow afternoon…
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