Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Haydock

12:40
Furius de Ciergues 0.5pt win 8/1

1:15
Our Surprise 1pt win 7/2

2:25
Rightplacerightime 0.5pt win 6/1

3:00
Bristol de Mai 0.5pt win 10/3 

Matrix bets

Haydock

12:40
Eclair Mag 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 9
Captain Drake 1 unit win CEP 25 FP 16

1:15
Mackenburg 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 7

2:25
Dans le Vent 1 unit win CEP 19 FP 15
If the Cap Fits 1 unit win CEP 22 FP 17

3:35
Mr Muldoon 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 11

Ascot

1:30
Get the Appeal 3 units win CEP 10 FP 8

Today is the first day of the new season, when I’ve felt there was some racing I could actually attack.

It’s not perfect - but there are definitely opportunities - the tricky is bit is deciding on the best ones !

I’m aware that a lack of action can cause frustration - so there is a natural tendency to force things a little.
I’ve tried to resist that and hopefully I’ve settled on the right bets.

I’ve ended up with 4 Best bets on the day.
I could have had a many as 6 - but I passed on a couple.

Just a reminder that I will run another Live thread in the forum, this afternoon http://tvb-forum.133.s1.nabble.com/

Here is the thinking behind todays bets/staking….


Haydock

I spent quite a lot of time studying the 12:40 race - and came to the conclusion that Furius de Ciergues is the best bet.
He holds the favourite (Defuture is bright) on recent Cheltenham form - and whilst he is quite exposed, I think he could still be improving.
He likes to race prominently, which is always a plus in distance chases - and the way he was staying on at the end of his last race, makes me think he will relish todays marathon trip.
The ground won’t be an issue for him - nor will his feather weight !
The other 2 I considered getting involved with are Eclair Mag and Captain Drake.
However, I feel that both have more question marks over them - so I’ll just cover them on the Matrix.

Our Surprise stuck out to me in the 1:15 - and I expected him to be a short priced fav (around 5/2).
It’s quite a competitive race - but you are unlikely to see a bigger eye catcher, than his run last time at Wetherby.
He was only raised 3lb for that, which I found surprising (if the winner hadn’t been in the race, he would have got at least 10lb).
His market weakness does concern me a bit - but he’s Sean Bowens only ride of the day, which allays some of my worries.
I was actually expecting to be putting us on Mackenburg at around 8/1 - but he’s half that price, which I also find bizarre (as he was 10 lengths behind Our Surprise - and is only 3lb better off today). I’ll just cover him on the Matrix - and hope his price drifts a little.
Maybe I’ve read things wrong - only time will tell - but I’ll really kick myself if I’ve read them right and I don’t suggest Our Surprise because the price was too big !

Bravemansgame should win the 1:50 - but the market tells you that.
Based on official adjusted ratings, he shouldn’t beat Itchy Feet - but he has huge scope for improvement.
He’s also likely to get an uncontested lead - and if Harry Cobden gets him into a rhythm up front, I doubt they’ll be passed.

There are plenty that you could argue a case for in the 2:25 - but I’m quite keen on  Rightplacerightime.
His trainer, Emmet Mullins, has a ridiculously good record with his UK raiders - and this horse has clearly been targeted at this race.
He doesn’t appear well handicapped based on his Irish rating - but the fact is, he arguably ran to a rating in the 140s, twice last autumn, when with his previous trainer.
I’ll be amazed if he hasn’t improved for the stable switch; whilst his last time out win over fences, shows that he’s fit and well.
Dans le Vent and If the Cap Fits, are worth small plays for the Matrix - just in case Rightpalcerightime blows out.
But if he runs as I expect, he’ll take a lot of beating.

I think Bristol de Mai has a very good chance of winning his fourth Betfair chase (3:00).
I was hoping for 4/1 about him (hence the delay in issuing) - but the defection of Next Destination, blew that…
I think 7/2 is a fair price - and hopefully most of you will have got that (at least !).
I won’t spend too long on his claims - but suffice to say, he will be the fittest horse in the race - and I don’t think he will have an issue with the ground.
At his best, only A Plus Tard could claim to be a better horse - but it remains to be seen, just how fit he is, on his seasonal return…

I’m not sure what to make of the final race on the card (3:35).
Strictlyadancer is the obvious one - but I suspect he is vulnerable to something…
Empire Steel, Ramses de Teille and Mr Muldoon are the 3 who I feel could beat him - and as the last named is by far the longest price, he is worth a small play for the Matrix


Ascot

I was very tempted to make Get the Appeal a Best bet, in the 1:30.
However, I feel there is just a bit too much guesswork required.
I do think she has a good chance - but Martha Brae and Go Millie Go, both look strong rivals - plus there has been good support for Tequila blaze (for Fergal).
In the circumstances, I feel Get the Appeal is best covered via the Matrix (as a strong ‘Mention’)

I genuinely have no idea what will win the 2:05 - though it promises to be a fascinating contest !
I probably fancy early favourite, Dashel Drasher, least - tho I could be wrong !
Either Defi de Seuil or Lostintranslation are likely to hack up - if back to their best - but they are unlikely to be back to their best !
Whilst the other 3 have all got a chance, depending on how the race pans out.
Simply, it has to be one to watch…
 
Buzz should win the 2:40 - but I won’t be betting on it…
Again, all of his rivals can be given a chance - and a lot will depend on how fit they are and how the race pans out.
Goshen is moderately tempting at around 4/1 - but not sufficiently so to consider backing him.
Another watching race…

I had hoped to get involved with the 3:15 race - as I felt Before Midnight had been put in to short.
However, he has drifted this morning - and as consequence, all of the other runners have shortened.
Sully Doc was a double figure price last night - and at around 8/1, I would have suggested him.
However, there is no margin in a current price of 5/1 (in fact, he is arguably too short).
Amoola Gold could be value at the off - but 8/1 is about right on him; Whilst Diego de Charmil is another to keep an eye on…
Once again, a watching race (though it may be a good one for the Live thread).

Ascot

1:30
Get the Appeal 3 units win CEP 10 FP 8