Best bets
Warwick
3:15
Riders onthe Storm 0.5pt win
14/1
Matrix Bets
Newbury
2:25
Eldorado Allen 1 unit win CEP 7.6 FP 9
3:35
JPR One 2 units win CEP 8.6 FP 7
Jetoile 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11
Warwick
2:05
Third time Lucki 4 units win CEP 2.98 FP 3 (if you can get 15/8 BOG, then take that)
3:15
Lieutenant Rocco 1 unit win CEP 9.6 FP 11
Celebre D’Allen 1 unit win CEP 6.2 FP 6
2:25
Eldorado Allen 1 unit win CEP 7.6 FP 9
3:35
JPR One 2 units win CEP 8.6 FP 7
Jetoile 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11
Warwick
2:05
Third time Lucki 4 units win CEP 2.98 FP 3 (if you can get 15/8 BOG, then take that)
3:15
Lieutenant Rocco 1 unit win CEP 9.6 FP 11
Celebre D’Allen 1 unit win CEP 6.2 FP 6
It was very hard to find bets today, due mainly to the small
fields…
It was a similar story last weekend - but there’s not a lot I can do about it.
If the races aren’t there, then I won’t be able to find bets - it really is as simple as that !
I did hope that I might be able to find a few more today, as there were 3 races that I felt could be targeted.
However prices moved in the wrong direction in a couple of them - and so I was left with just the one to focus on.
That has yielded the days only Best bet - and I’ve added a few for the Matrix - however, I’ve got to be careful not to simply force things for the sake of some action.
Here is my thinking…
Newbury
Bravemansgame really should win the opener (1:15) - but you can’t back a Nicholls horse at even money, given the current stable form.
Equally however, it’s hard to back against the best horse in the race - particularly when all of the opposition have question marks over them.
Gallyhill was the closest I got to a bet - but officially, it’s just a watching race…
I did feel that the early market was wrong for the 1:50 - and so it’s proved…
Those put in short, have all drifted - whilst the longer priced horses have all shortened.
As a consequence, we now have an 8 horse race where it’s 5/1 the field !
With the prices so tight, it’s now impossible to see a ‘value’ angle.
Risk and Roll was too short at 4/1, yesterday - but at 8/1, he’s quite attractive.
By contrast, the 14/1 about Sussex Ranger yesterday, would have lured me in - but you’ll now struggle to get 5/1 - and that holds no appeal.
On balance, I feel it’s best to leave the race alone, and revisit later, on the Live thread…
With question marks over both Clan des Obeaux (stable form) and Royal Pagaille (ground), the 2:25 feels like a race where a risk can be taken.
I’m not keen on Imperial Aura or De Rasher Counter - so by default, Eldorado Allen becomes the bet !
He’s got over 10lb to find with the principals on official ratings, so he can’t be a confident selection - however, he is worth a small play for the Matrix…
It’s hard to choose between the main 3 in the 3:00 - and the prices give little incentive to do so…
Hitman would be the one, if the stable form wasn’t a concern (but it is !); with Sceau Royal the second choice.
The latter is moderately tempting as an official bet at 5/2 - but the margin is very small (and the unknowns relatively high).
As a consequence, it’s a watching race…
I like JPR One in the 3:35 - but not sufficiently to make him a Best bet.
In truth, there are too many unknowns to make anything a Best bet in the race - so it can only be covered by the Matrix.
He’s a fair bet at 8: whilst Jetoile is also a reasonable bet at 13.
Both horses are impossible to quantify - but have limitless scope.
They could hack up - or they could tail off..!
Warwick
Indefatigable is the most likely winner of the 1:35 - but not a betting proposition at 5/4.
The race could easily get tactical - whilst she showed a bit of temperament on her penultimate start.
If everything goes smoothly, then I’d expect her to win - but she’s too short a price to consider, with other variables to consider….
If you can get 2/1 about Third Time Lucki in the 2:05, then he is worth a bet.
I reckon he is the most likely race winner - and For Pleasure should ensure, that even with just 4 runners, it’s a proper race.
This is primarily an Arkle prep for Edwardstone (the same is arguably true for Third Time Lucki - but I suspect he will be closer to his peak) - whilst Brave Seasca is probably a bit short of this class.
I’ll have a few units on Third Time Lucki for the Matrix - but do try to make sure you get the price…
The 3:15 is the best betting race of the day - and I quite like Riders inthe Storm.
I can see him being well suited by the way the race is likely to unfold - sat in behind Wishing and Hoping and Lieutenant Rocco.
The issue with him last time, was that he didn’t settle - but a faster pace and sharper course, should help today.
I think Lieutenant Rocco is a danger - and even though he’s been well backed, he’s worth saving on the Matrix. Whilst Celebre D’Allen remains unexposed - and could still be very dangerous off his new mark.
It was a similar story last weekend - but there’s not a lot I can do about it.
If the races aren’t there, then I won’t be able to find bets - it really is as simple as that !
I did hope that I might be able to find a few more today, as there were 3 races that I felt could be targeted.
However prices moved in the wrong direction in a couple of them - and so I was left with just the one to focus on.
That has yielded the days only Best bet - and I’ve added a few for the Matrix - however, I’ve got to be careful not to simply force things for the sake of some action.
Here is my thinking…
Newbury
Bravemansgame really should win the opener (1:15) - but you can’t back a Nicholls horse at even money, given the current stable form.
Equally however, it’s hard to back against the best horse in the race - particularly when all of the opposition have question marks over them.
Gallyhill was the closest I got to a bet - but officially, it’s just a watching race…
I did feel that the early market was wrong for the 1:50 - and so it’s proved…
Those put in short, have all drifted - whilst the longer priced horses have all shortened.
As a consequence, we now have an 8 horse race where it’s 5/1 the field !
With the prices so tight, it’s now impossible to see a ‘value’ angle.
Risk and Roll was too short at 4/1, yesterday - but at 8/1, he’s quite attractive.
By contrast, the 14/1 about Sussex Ranger yesterday, would have lured me in - but you’ll now struggle to get 5/1 - and that holds no appeal.
On balance, I feel it’s best to leave the race alone, and revisit later, on the Live thread…
With question marks over both Clan des Obeaux (stable form) and Royal Pagaille (ground), the 2:25 feels like a race where a risk can be taken.
I’m not keen on Imperial Aura or De Rasher Counter - so by default, Eldorado Allen becomes the bet !
He’s got over 10lb to find with the principals on official ratings, so he can’t be a confident selection - however, he is worth a small play for the Matrix…
It’s hard to choose between the main 3 in the 3:00 - and the prices give little incentive to do so…
Hitman would be the one, if the stable form wasn’t a concern (but it is !); with Sceau Royal the second choice.
The latter is moderately tempting as an official bet at 5/2 - but the margin is very small (and the unknowns relatively high).
As a consequence, it’s a watching race…
I like JPR One in the 3:35 - but not sufficiently to make him a Best bet.
In truth, there are too many unknowns to make anything a Best bet in the race - so it can only be covered by the Matrix.
He’s a fair bet at 8: whilst Jetoile is also a reasonable bet at 13.
Both horses are impossible to quantify - but have limitless scope.
They could hack up - or they could tail off..!
Warwick
Indefatigable is the most likely winner of the 1:35 - but not a betting proposition at 5/4.
The race could easily get tactical - whilst she showed a bit of temperament on her penultimate start.
If everything goes smoothly, then I’d expect her to win - but she’s too short a price to consider, with other variables to consider….
If you can get 2/1 about Third Time Lucki in the 2:05, then he is worth a bet.
I reckon he is the most likely race winner - and For Pleasure should ensure, that even with just 4 runners, it’s a proper race.
This is primarily an Arkle prep for Edwardstone (the same is arguably true for Third Time Lucki - but I suspect he will be closer to his peak) - whilst Brave Seasca is probably a bit short of this class.
I’ll have a few units on Third Time Lucki for the Matrix - but do try to make sure you get the price…
The 3:15 is the best betting race of the day - and I quite like Riders inthe Storm.
I can see him being well suited by the way the race is likely to unfold - sat in behind Wishing and Hoping and Lieutenant Rocco.
The issue with him last time, was that he didn’t settle - but a faster pace and sharper course, should help today.
I think Lieutenant Rocco is a danger - and even though he’s been well backed, he’s worth saving on the Matrix. Whilst Celebre D’Allen remains unexposed - and could still be very dangerous off his new mark.
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