There will be a crazy amount of top class racing, taking place on Saturday.
The headline event will be the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown - which features 4 grade 1 contests.
There’s a further grade 1 at Sandown; and whilst the quality isn’t quite at that level, both Mussselburgh and Wetherby, host decent cards.
The main reason for the glut, is the proximity to the Cheltenham festival.
It’s now just 6 weeks away - so the ideal time for a final prep run…
As is invariably the case, guessing the state of the ground could provide a challenge - particularly at Leopardstown !
There’s been virtually no rain since Christmas - and as Leopardstown is also a quick draining course, they’ve been forced to water extensively, to try and provide decent ground.
It is currently described as ‘yielding’ (good to soft) - but ironically, there is now some rain expected prior to racing…
Needless to say, we won’t really know how it is riding, until racing commences.
Here’s my early thoughts on all of the televised races…
Leopardstown
1:05
The first grade 1 of the meeting is for novice hurdlers and over the unusual distance of 2m6f…
The key race to this, looks to be the Lawlors of Naas novice hurdle, which was run at the beginning of January (at Naas !).
That race was won by Ginto - and he was followed home by Grand Jury and Hollow Games, with Whatdeawant back in fifth.
With Ginto out of the way, Grand Jury looks the one to beat - however, Hollow Games was short of room in the closing stage that day, and so could easily reverse form with the runner up.
Whilst Whatdeawant seemed not quite to get home, and may be capable of better.
As a consequence, choosing between the trio isn’t quite as straightforward as it might appear !
Not that this is just a 3 horse race…
Willie Mullins also saddles the unbeaten Bronn - and Paul Townend has chosen him, (presumably in preference to stablemate Whatdeawant); whilst Gordon Elliott saddles Minella Crooner, in addition to Hollow Games, with Jack Kennedy taking the ride on him.
Eric Bloodaxe represents Joseph O’Brien - and he is another who can definitely be given a chance; whilst Willies apparent third string, Minella Cocooner, is another one who couldn’t be ruled out.
All in all, quite a tricky opening to proceedings…
1:35
Things look a little more straightforward, for the second grade 1 on the card - the Spring juvenile hurdle…
This looks like being a match, between the unbeaten Fil Dor and the highly promising Vauban.
Fil Dor has won 3 races for Gordon Elliott - and prior to last weekend, headed the betting for the Triumph hurdle.
However, the impressive win at Cheltenham, for owner/stablemate Pied Piper, saw him become the new market leader.
I suspect that Fil Dor is the more talented of the pair - but recency bias meant the bookmakers had no choice other than to adjust their books (as punters will have wanted to back Pied Piper).
Interestingly, on his sole run over hurdles so far, Vaubon finished runner up to Pied Piper.
Vaubon was sent off an odds on fav for that race - and arguably should have won. Whatever, there clearly isn’t much between Vaubon and Pied Piper, so it wil be very interesting to see how Vaubon gets on against Fil Dor.
If there is to be an upset, then Icase Allen looks the one most capable of providing it.
He won a strong maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas on his Irish debut - having been backed to do so.
He was only workman-like in victory - but clearly has plenty of scope for improvement.
2:10
The third grade 1 on the card, is the Irish Arkle - and this looks a fascinating contest.
There are only 6 runners - and realistically, only 4 of them are likely to count - but it still looks a tough puzzle to solve.
The Willie Mullins trained Blue Lord, has been installed a short priced favourite, to remain unbeaten over fences.
He was a very talented novice hurdler last season - and has looked just as good over fences in 2 starts this season.
He hacked up on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse in December - and was equally impressive when following up at Naas, at the beginning of last month.
This represents a much stiffer test for him - but he may well be up to it…
Willie Mullins also trains 2 of 3 main opponents: Haut en Couleurs and Saint Sam.
Both are 5 year olds and each has won its only start over fences.
Haut en Couleurs was impressive when taking a beginners chase at Leopardstown over Christmas; whilst Saint Sam put up an equally taking performance when making all at Fairyhouse, last month.
Both of them could literally be anything - with Haut en Couleurs in particular, having almost limitless potential, after just 4 life time runs.
Strong as the Mullins legions are however, the runner with the best form in the book, is the Gordon Elliott trained Riviere D’etel.
She was relatively modest over hurdles last season, but has been a revelation over fences this season.
She won her first 3 starts of the campaign, in increasingly impressive style - and whilst she did lose her unbeaten record over fences last time, that was at the hands of Ferny Hollow.
If he had run in this race, he would have been an odds on favourite - so the fact he only beat her by 1.5 lengths, means she warrants the utmost respect.
2:45
This is the kind of race which you could literally spend hours trying to unravel - and on a such a busy day, that’s simply not possible to do.
I’ve worked my way through the runners and pickled out 5 which I think have got decent chances…
The first 2 are the pair who finished first and second in the race, last year: Maze Runner and Unexpected Deputy.
Maze Runner came out on top that day - and by over 4 lengths. He will be running off a mark 9lb higher on Saturday - but the booking of a 5lb claimer will effectively reduce that.
He’s had a couple of runs this season - so should be spot on for Saturday.
Unexpected Duty will be running from a mark just 1 pound higher - but his rider has subsequently lost his 3lb claim (so he will effectively be 4lb higher).
He’s just had one prior run this season - behind Panda Boy in a hot contest at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.
The application of first time cheek pieces, is an interesting move with him…
Futurum Regem also ran in the Panda Boy ran - and he finished a highly creditable third.
He looked the most likely race winner, turning in - but was then short of room and couldn’t peg back the first two.
However, he lost little in defeat - and will have a more experienced claimer in the saddle on Saturday.
The final 2 horses on the short list, are the bottom 2 in the weights.
Enjoy D’allen finished third in the Grade B Paddy Power chase over the Christmas period - when running off a mark of 145.
He will be running off a mark of just 116 on Saturday - so could be absolutely thrown in.
That said, he ran off a pound lower mark at Fairyhouse in November and never featured. Though in fairness, that was his seasonal debut, so he may have needed the run…
Rightplacerightime hasn’t run since disappointing at Haydock in November.
That was in the grade 3 Betfair Exchange stayers hurdle and he was sent off the 11/4 fav - but never really featured.
Rachel Blackmore is a particularly interesting jockey booking - and back on his Irish mark (9lb lower than the one was given in the UK), there is a chance that he could bounce back…
3:15
The Irish Gold cup is the high-light of the opening day of the DRF - and I’m a bit surprised to see that Frodon has been installed the early favourite.
He’s an admirable horse - and a strong case can be made for him based on his win in the Champion chase at Down Royal in October, when Minello Indo was amongst his victims.
However, everything was right for him that day - and I don’t think that will be the case on Saturday…
He will doubtless try to make all, as usual - but I suspect that one or two (or even 3 !) will pick him off close home.
Minella Indo may well be capable of gaining his revenge - tho he has now got a bit to prove, having disappointed last time in the King George.
I also can’t view the booking of Robbie Power as a positive.
I’ve nothing against Power - but it suggests that Rachel Blackmore has already decided that she won’t be riding him in the Gold cup (she’ll be on A Plus Tard instead).
I suspect his connections will be happy with a run which they can build on (ie. If he is placed).
As a consequence, Kemboy is probably the one to beat - as he bids to repeat last years win in the race.
He certainly sets the race standard - but it’s a standard which shouldn’t be insurmountable…
Asterion Forlonges and Jadanli may be the 2 to focus on - tho both have question marks over them…
Asterion Forlonges has the ability to win a race of this nature - but he has as much temperament as he has talent !
He would have gone very close in both of his races this season - but fell at the third last in the John Durkan and unseated at the last in the King George.
If he does get everything right, he is probably the one to beat.
The main issue with Janidil is the trip.
He’s not conclusively proved that he doesn’t stay it - but he did weaken after the last, in the Savills chase, when stepped up to 3 miles on his most recent start.
3:50
This looks a relatively weak handicap - and Mt Leinster appears to stand out.
He had pretensions to being graded class over hurdles and whilst that didn’t quite materialise, he still managed to finish third in a grade 1.
In theory he could be better over fences - and whilst he is yet to win over the bigger obstacles, he’s only had 3 tries and he’s been placed on each occasion.
He certainly ran well enough on his latest start, when third to Haut en Couleurs - and that one has a very good chance in the grade 1 novice race earlier on the card.
If Mt Leinster can repeat that effort on Saturday, then he should be able to defy his opening mark of 135.
It’s not easy to choose between his rivals…
A Wave of the Sea won the corresponding race last year - but will be 9lb higher tomorrow and has been running over longer distances.
He will have his work cut out to repeat his win.
Grange Walk got the better of Exit Poll in a similar race over the course at Christmas.
The runner up will be 5lb better off for just under 4 lengths - and that might enable him to reverse the form, particularly as Grange Walk has subsequently fallen when beaten, in a race at Fairyhouse…
Sandown
1:55
This appears one of the more likely betting races of the day…
Gunsight Ridge is the early favourite, on the back of his defeat of Buran Doran over course and distance, 4 weeks ago.
He did well to win that day, delivering on earlier promise…
A 5lb rating rise isn’t overly harsh - though as Bun Doran has be raised just 1lb for a 2 length beating, he should have every chance of reversing the form.
I suspect the better ground will also help Bun Doran, so it’s far from guaranteed that Gunsight Ridge will confirm the placings.
Frero Banbou did well to beat Eclair D’ainay at Lingfield a fortnight ago - and again, a 6lb rating rise, doesn’t look overly harsh.
That said, I suspect he now has little in hand of his mark - and tomorrows quicker ground is unlikely to suit him as well as Lingfields heavy ground.
Riko Boy ran really well on his belated seasonal return at Wincanton, a fortnight ago.
If he can build on that, then he can certainly be given a chance - tho this is a stronger contest.
Paul Nicholls runs 2 and both Tamroc de Mathan and Dolos could be of real interest.
The former won a grade 2 at Kempton last season, and could certainly be better than his mark of 146; whilst the latter finished runner up in this race last year off a mark of 158 - but will be running tomorrow off a mark of just 143 !
However, the big issue for both of them, is the form of the Nicholls stable.
Prior to Friday, the last 26 runners from the stable had all been beaten - and all bar 2 of those, started at single figure prices (most of them, below 5/1).
More than that, plenty of them weakened close home, suggesting that something fundamental isn’t quite right.
The suspicion is that it’s down to the flu vaccine, which Nicholls horses get early in January.
Whatever the reason, it would be hard to side with any of the stables runners until they have shown themselves back in top form…
1:50
There is a slightly disappointing turnout for this, with just the 5 runners…
The key piece of form looks to be the International hurdle, which was run at Cheltenham in December.
The race was won by Guard your Dreams, with Song for Someone half a length back in second - and Hunters Call a further half length back in third.
Guard your Dreams received 6lb from Song for Someone that day - but tomorrow they will meet at level weights.
That should see the form being reversed.
Hunters Call also received 6lb from Song from Someone that day - and will do so again tomorrow.
He’ll also receive 6lb from Guard your Dream tomorrow - which is theory, should mean that he too will reverse the form with the Cheltenham winner.
However, Hunters Call is now 12 years old - and has subsequently run disappointingly at Haydock, so things may not work out quite as that form line suggests…
If the Haydock run is taken at face value, Hunters Call shouldn’t beat Global Citizen.
That one finished nearly 10 lengths ahead of him that day - tho he may have been flattered by the way the race panned out…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Goshen.
He’s very talented - but more than a little wayward !
He destroyed Song for Someone at Wincanton, a year ago - but hasn’t run up to that level of form, in 5 subsequent races.
He does appear to be better going right handed (which will be the case tomorrow) and on soft ground (which won’t be the case) - though in truth, his issues seem to be more in his head !
I can’t think of any particular reason why he would bounce back to form tomorrow - but if he did, he would almost certainly win…
2:20
Another 5 horse race - and this one doesn’t look as competitive as the previous one.
In fact, as Grade 1 contests go, it’s dire !
At best, it looks a match, between L’Homme Presse and Pic D’Orhy - and unless the Nicholls stable quickly bounces back to form, L’Homme Presse could come home alone !
Certainly, this race looks less competitive than the Dipper chase which L'Homme Presse won at Cheltenham on New Years day.
He beat a relatively strong field by upwards of 10 lengths that day - and in doing so, confirmed himself as one of the top British novices.
He had been just as impressive on his previous start, when beating lesser opposition at Ascot - so he should have no issue going right handed; whilst his wins have all come on good/soft ground, so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be a problem.
In short, there is no reason why he won't run his race - and if he does, then he is likely to win.
Pic D’Orhy really is the only one who looks capable of giving him a race.
He’s actually rated a pound superior to L’Homme Presse on official ratings - but I suspect that flatters him.
In fairness, he was a good winner at Ascot on his most recent start - and as we know to our cost, should also have won at Newbury, in November !
However, his form doesn’t have the substance of L’Homme Presses.
The other concern with him, is his jumping…
He’s very low over his fences - and whilst that’s great when he gets them right, if he gets one wrong, then he is likely to pay the price.
Sandown presents particularly tough jumping challenge - so that has to be a worry.
When you add in the concern about the Nicholls stable form, then there can be little doubt that L’Homme Presse is by far the most likely winner of the race.
The 3 other runners really shouldn’t feature in the finish, unless something untoward happens to the principals, as all 3 are rated at least a stone inferior to the big 2.
2:55
18 runners will go to post for this - and it looks a fiercely competitive contest.
Even the creation of a ‘short list’ is no easy task - but suffice to say, I’ve given it a go !
Beauport is the first one on it.
He won the NH novice handicap hurdle final over the course, last March.
That’s always a strong race, and Beauport hacked up by 11 lengths.
He again ran over tomorrows course on his seasonal debut, when runner up to Jesuitique.
The winner re-opposes again tomorrow, but is 10lb worse up for a length and a half - and that should see Beauport reverse the form.
On his most recent start, Beauport again finished second - this time to Dashel Drasher at Newbury.
Again, he lost little in defeat - and stepped up half a mile in trip tomorrow, he looks the one to beat.
Green Book is the next one on the list - for Venetia.
He unseated early on his most recent start in the Lanzarote hurdle - but prior to that had impressed in winning at both Haydcok and Ludlow.
Like Beauport, he will be trying 3 miles for the first time tomorrow - but could easily improve for the step up in trip.
Ree Okka looked good when winning a novice at Kempton on his most recent start - and whilst his opening mark of 130 doesn’t look overly generous, it would be no surprise if he proved to be much better than it, in the fullness of time.
Irish raider, Born Patrol, ran well on his most recent start, when runner up at Cheltenham in November.
He was unlucky to bump into a revitalised Kansas City Chief that day - and the winner has gone on to frank that form, with 3 subsequent good runs.
Call me Lord has a touch of class - and bounced back to form last time, when third in the Lanzarote.
He will probably need to improve on that effort if he is to win tomorrow - but if he can get anywhere near his former best, he is handicapped to run a huge race.
It’s a similar story with If the Cap Fits.
A former grade 1 winner, he was rated 166 at his peak - but will be running off a mark of 142 tomorrow.
The fitting of first time blinkers - and the booking of a 7lb claimer - are both interesting moves, and if he can get even close to his former best, he will be a danger to them all.
3:30
This is a tight little handicap - but with Paul Nicholls responsible for a couple of the runners (Kapcorse and Real Steel), there may be an angle into it…
Farinet has won 2 of his last 3 starts - both over tomorrows course - suggesting he is the one to start with.
That said, both races were over half a mile shorter than he faces tomorrow - and on softer ground.
In fairness, those changes may cancel each other out (from a stamina perspective) - and he has certainly got a good chance.
In fact, the way he finished his race last time, suggested that he may well improve for a step up in trip.
If that is the case, then even off a 8lb higher mark, he could prove hard to beat.
Five Star Getaway bounced back to form last time, when taking a similar race at Kempton over Christmas.
The form of that run has subsequently been boosted by the runner up, Fortescue - and Five Star Getaway looks to have got off quite lightly, with just a 4lb rating rise.
Linelee King won well at Aintree in November - and would have followed up last time at Ayr, but for making a shocking mistake at the fourth last fence.
It says much for his ability, that having lost over half a dozen lengths, he rallied and was ultimately beaten less than 2 lengths.
He mark has remained unchanged - and there can be little doubt that he is well handicapped.
Diese Aba has won this race for the past 2 years - and definitely has a chance of completing his hatrick tomorrow.
He will be racing off a mark 5lb higher than last year - but as his narrow defeat by Highland Hunter at the course in early December showed, he’s a Sandown specialist.
It’s harder to make cases for Undersupervision and Le Milos - so if the 2 Nicholls horses are also dismissed, this becomes a 4 horse race ! (which makes it a lot easier to solve !!)
1:55
This appears one of the more likely betting races of the day…
Gunsight Ridge is the early favourite, on the back of his defeat of Buran Doran over course and distance, 4 weeks ago.
He did well to win that day, delivering on earlier promise…
A 5lb rating rise isn’t overly harsh - though as Bun Doran has be raised just 1lb for a 2 length beating, he should have every chance of reversing the form.
I suspect the better ground will also help Bun Doran, so it’s far from guaranteed that Gunsight Ridge will confirm the placings.
Frero Banbou did well to beat Eclair D’ainay at Lingfield a fortnight ago - and again, a 6lb rating rise, doesn’t look overly harsh.
That said, I suspect he now has little in hand of his mark - and tomorrows quicker ground is unlikely to suit him as well as Lingfields heavy ground.
Riko Boy ran really well on his belated seasonal return at Wincanton, a fortnight ago.
If he can build on that, then he can certainly be given a chance - tho this is a stronger contest.
Paul Nicholls runs 2 and both Tamroc de Mathan and Dolos could be of real interest.
The former won a grade 2 at Kempton last season, and could certainly be better than his mark of 146; whilst the latter finished runner up in this race last year off a mark of 158 - but will be running tomorrow off a mark of just 143 !
However, the big issue for both of them, is the form of the Nicholls stable.
Prior to Friday, the last 26 runners from the stable had all been beaten - and all bar 2 of those, started at single figure prices (most of them, below 5/1).
More than that, plenty of them weakened close home, suggesting that something fundamental isn’t quite right.
The suspicion is that it’s down to the flu vaccine, which Nicholls horses get early in January.
Whatever the reason, it would be hard to side with any of the stables runners until they have shown themselves back in top form…
1:50
There is a slightly disappointing turnout for this, with just the 5 runners…
The key piece of form looks to be the International hurdle, which was run at Cheltenham in December.
The race was won by Guard your Dreams, with Song for Someone half a length back in second - and Hunters Call a further half length back in third.
Guard your Dreams received 6lb from Song for Someone that day - but tomorrow they will meet at level weights.
That should see the form being reversed.
Hunters Call also received 6lb from Song from Someone that day - and will do so again tomorrow.
He’ll also receive 6lb from Guard your Dream tomorrow - which is theory, should mean that he too will reverse the form with the Cheltenham winner.
However, Hunters Call is now 12 years old - and has subsequently run disappointingly at Haydock, so things may not work out quite as that form line suggests…
If the Haydock run is taken at face value, Hunters Call shouldn’t beat Global Citizen.
That one finished nearly 10 lengths ahead of him that day - tho he may have been flattered by the way the race panned out…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Goshen.
He’s very talented - but more than a little wayward !
He destroyed Song for Someone at Wincanton, a year ago - but hasn’t run up to that level of form, in 5 subsequent races.
He does appear to be better going right handed (which will be the case tomorrow) and on soft ground (which won’t be the case) - though in truth, his issues seem to be more in his head !
I can’t think of any particular reason why he would bounce back to form tomorrow - but if he did, he would almost certainly win…
2:20
Another 5 horse race - and this one doesn’t look as competitive as the previous one.
In fact, as Grade 1 contests go, it’s dire !
At best, it looks a match, between L’Homme Presse and Pic D’Orhy - and unless the Nicholls stable quickly bounces back to form, L’Homme Presse could come home alone !
Certainly, this race looks less competitive than the Dipper chase which L'Homme Presse won at Cheltenham on New Years day.
He beat a relatively strong field by upwards of 10 lengths that day - and in doing so, confirmed himself as one of the top British novices.
He had been just as impressive on his previous start, when beating lesser opposition at Ascot - so he should have no issue going right handed; whilst his wins have all come on good/soft ground, so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be a problem.
In short, there is no reason why he won't run his race - and if he does, then he is likely to win.
Pic D’Orhy really is the only one who looks capable of giving him a race.
He’s actually rated a pound superior to L’Homme Presse on official ratings - but I suspect that flatters him.
In fairness, he was a good winner at Ascot on his most recent start - and as we know to our cost, should also have won at Newbury, in November !
However, his form doesn’t have the substance of L’Homme Presses.
The other concern with him, is his jumping…
He’s very low over his fences - and whilst that’s great when he gets them right, if he gets one wrong, then he is likely to pay the price.
Sandown presents particularly tough jumping challenge - so that has to be a worry.
When you add in the concern about the Nicholls stable form, then there can be little doubt that L’Homme Presse is by far the most likely winner of the race.
The 3 other runners really shouldn’t feature in the finish, unless something untoward happens to the principals, as all 3 are rated at least a stone inferior to the big 2.
2:55
18 runners will go to post for this - and it looks a fiercely competitive contest.
Even the creation of a ‘short list’ is no easy task - but suffice to say, I’ve given it a go !
Beauport is the first one on it.
He won the NH novice handicap hurdle final over the course, last March.
That’s always a strong race, and Beauport hacked up by 11 lengths.
He again ran over tomorrows course on his seasonal debut, when runner up to Jesuitique.
The winner re-opposes again tomorrow, but is 10lb worse up for a length and a half - and that should see Beauport reverse the form.
On his most recent start, Beauport again finished second - this time to Dashel Drasher at Newbury.
Again, he lost little in defeat - and stepped up half a mile in trip tomorrow, he looks the one to beat.
Green Book is the next one on the list - for Venetia.
He unseated early on his most recent start in the Lanzarote hurdle - but prior to that had impressed in winning at both Haydcok and Ludlow.
Like Beauport, he will be trying 3 miles for the first time tomorrow - but could easily improve for the step up in trip.
Ree Okka looked good when winning a novice at Kempton on his most recent start - and whilst his opening mark of 130 doesn’t look overly generous, it would be no surprise if he proved to be much better than it, in the fullness of time.
Irish raider, Born Patrol, ran well on his most recent start, when runner up at Cheltenham in November.
He was unlucky to bump into a revitalised Kansas City Chief that day - and the winner has gone on to frank that form, with 3 subsequent good runs.
Call me Lord has a touch of class - and bounced back to form last time, when third in the Lanzarote.
He will probably need to improve on that effort if he is to win tomorrow - but if he can get anywhere near his former best, he is handicapped to run a huge race.
It’s a similar story with If the Cap Fits.
A former grade 1 winner, he was rated 166 at his peak - but will be running off a mark of 142 tomorrow.
The fitting of first time blinkers - and the booking of a 7lb claimer - are both interesting moves, and if he can get even close to his former best, he will be a danger to them all.
3:30
This is a tight little handicap - but with Paul Nicholls responsible for a couple of the runners (Kapcorse and Real Steel), there may be an angle into it…
Farinet has won 2 of his last 3 starts - both over tomorrows course - suggesting he is the one to start with.
That said, both races were over half a mile shorter than he faces tomorrow - and on softer ground.
In fairness, those changes may cancel each other out (from a stamina perspective) - and he has certainly got a good chance.
In fact, the way he finished his race last time, suggested that he may well improve for a step up in trip.
If that is the case, then even off a 8lb higher mark, he could prove hard to beat.
Five Star Getaway bounced back to form last time, when taking a similar race at Kempton over Christmas.
The form of that run has subsequently been boosted by the runner up, Fortescue - and Five Star Getaway looks to have got off quite lightly, with just a 4lb rating rise.
Linelee King won well at Aintree in November - and would have followed up last time at Ayr, but for making a shocking mistake at the fourth last fence.
It says much for his ability, that having lost over half a dozen lengths, he rallied and was ultimately beaten less than 2 lengths.
He mark has remained unchanged - and there can be little doubt that he is well handicapped.
Diese Aba has won this race for the past 2 years - and definitely has a chance of completing his hatrick tomorrow.
He will be racing off a mark 5lb higher than last year - but as his narrow defeat by Highland Hunter at the course in early December showed, he’s a Sandown specialist.
It’s harder to make cases for Undersupervision and Le Milos - so if the 2 Nicholls horses are also dismissed, this becomes a 4 horse race ! (which makes it a lot easier to solve !!)
Musselburgh
2:05
All of the 8 runners in this veterans chase, like to either front run or race prominently - so there’s likely to be quite a pace on.
That said, I’ll be a bit surprised if anything manages to head Valadom - and that’s despite him being the oldest runner, by at least 2 years !
Certainly nothing could live with him on his latest start, when tried to jump and gallop his rivals into submission in the veterans final at Sandown.
And for much of the race it looked as if he was going to be successful - but having been around 20 lengths clear with 3 to jump, he quickly tired - and was a beaten horse running to the second last.
He’ll have 2 furlongs less to travel tomorrow - and on quicker ground - whilst Musselburgh is a much sharper track.
In short, he’s far more likely to get home - the question is whether he’ll again be able to get away from his rivals…
Cool Mix and Glen Forsa, both look dangers.
They have clashed on their 2 most recent starts, with Cool Mix coming out on top on both occasions.
I suspect it will be the same story tomorrow, as there is no significant reason why Glen Forsa should reverse the form.
Tomorrows 2m6f trip should also suit Cool Mix better than the 3 miles over which they have been running, and he’s probably the one to beat.
Calipso Collonges looks a big danger.
He won on his seasonal debut at Kelso, before running an excellent third in the Tommy Whittle chase at Haydock.
Tomorrows race represents a mark drop in class - and he’s likely to go very close.
It’s hard to make a compelling case for any of the other 4 runners - so once again, an 8 horse race which can probably be reduced to 4 !
2:40
8 runners will line up for the Scottish champion hurdle - but it’s not a race which particularly grabs me…
I expected to see Socialist Agenda heading the market, on his handicap debut - but that’s not the case (there are 3 or 4 ahead of him in the betting).
He’s been given an opening mark of 118 - and that would look generous, if the form of his Cheltenham fourth to Datsalrightgine, can be taken literally.
In fairness, there’s a chance that it can’t (!) - but he was only a couple of lengths off 130 rated horses that day, so he could be well handicapped.
He’s also still got plenty of potential, after just 3 runs over hurdles.
Away from him, then Fiveandtwenty makes some appeal, off a falling mark, at a track where she has a very good record.
The suspicion is that she’s been targeted at this race (she won at the meeting last year), and she is an understandable favourite.
Whilst all of the others can be given chances on their best form, each of them has a significant question mark to overcome.
Things may become clearer closer to the off, by which point we will have a better feel for the state of the ground - and will also be aware of any notable betting moves - but with the information currently available, there’s a bit too much guesswork required for any confident predictions !
3:45
It seems wrong to have a ‘National’ with only 6 runners - even if it is just the Edinburgh National - but sadly, that’s the case…
A mere half dozen will go to post for this years race - tho one of them is the winner from 12 months ago, Mighty Thunder.
He hacked up that day - but should have more of a task on tomorrow, off a 19lb higher mark…
That said, he subsequently won the Scottish National off a mark just 4lb lower than he races from tomorrow - and that was a much stronger contest.
The question is whether he is in the same form this season, as he’s not shown much in 2 starts.
However, they were in races where he had very little chance of winning, so it’s probably unfair to judge him on those runs.
Highland Hunter is the early favourite - and that is completely understandable on the back of his excellent second place in the Welsh National.
The handicapper has seen fit to leave his mark unchanged after that run, which is rather surprising.
However, to counter that, he did have a very hard race - and he’s trained by Paul Nicholls (which as I keep on saying, is currently a concern).
The Wolf finished second to Full Back at Cheltenham on New Years day - and whilst that’s fair form, it’s nothing special.
It doesn’t strike me that he’s handicapped to win - so if he does win, it’ll be because none of his rivals were capable of stepping up ! (and I would hope that at least one of them could)
Captain Cattistock is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He was pulled up behind Blaklion on his belated return at Haydock on New Years eve, but ran a fair race that day behind a rival who was in top form.
His win in a Hunter Chase at Cheltenham in April, showed that he stays the trip - and he is quite attractively handicapped, on a mark of 124, based on the form he showed for Paul Nicholls, a couple of season ago…
Wetherby
2:30
There’s just the one race from Wetherby being shown on ITV - and it’s only attracted 4 runners.
However, it’s still quite an interesting contest, with the potentially high class Ahoy Senor, taken on by the rapidly improving Saint Palais.
Based on official adjusted (for age) ratings, there shouldn’t be much between the pair of them, so it’ll be fascinating to see how it pans out.
What is almost guaranteed, is that Ahoy Senor will lead - and on a track which should be well suited to his relentless galloping, he could prove hard to peg back.
Bravemansgame managed to peg him back last time - but he is also potentially top class, and Kempton is probably a bit sharp for Ahoy Senor.
Wetherby should suit him much better and provided his jumping holds up, it’s likely to take a very good one to beat him.
In truth, Saint Palais probably won’t be good enough.
He’s been a big improver this season - and his 3 chase wins have seen his official mark rise by 27lb.
However, he has only been beating up relatively modest handicappers - and Ahoy Senor is a notch or two above that level.
Ashtown Lad is also worthy of a quick mention.
He finished well behind Ahoy Senor at Newbury in November - but ran much better last time, when second to Mint Condition at Haydock.
Again, if Ahoy Senor runs his race, then he’s unlikely to beat him - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him travel strongly - and he may even be able to get the better of Saint Palais for the runner up spot.
2:05
All of the 8 runners in this veterans chase, like to either front run or race prominently - so there’s likely to be quite a pace on.
That said, I’ll be a bit surprised if anything manages to head Valadom - and that’s despite him being the oldest runner, by at least 2 years !
Certainly nothing could live with him on his latest start, when tried to jump and gallop his rivals into submission in the veterans final at Sandown.
And for much of the race it looked as if he was going to be successful - but having been around 20 lengths clear with 3 to jump, he quickly tired - and was a beaten horse running to the second last.
He’ll have 2 furlongs less to travel tomorrow - and on quicker ground - whilst Musselburgh is a much sharper track.
In short, he’s far more likely to get home - the question is whether he’ll again be able to get away from his rivals…
Cool Mix and Glen Forsa, both look dangers.
They have clashed on their 2 most recent starts, with Cool Mix coming out on top on both occasions.
I suspect it will be the same story tomorrow, as there is no significant reason why Glen Forsa should reverse the form.
Tomorrows 2m6f trip should also suit Cool Mix better than the 3 miles over which they have been running, and he’s probably the one to beat.
Calipso Collonges looks a big danger.
He won on his seasonal debut at Kelso, before running an excellent third in the Tommy Whittle chase at Haydock.
Tomorrows race represents a mark drop in class - and he’s likely to go very close.
It’s hard to make a compelling case for any of the other 4 runners - so once again, an 8 horse race which can probably be reduced to 4 !
2:40
8 runners will line up for the Scottish champion hurdle - but it’s not a race which particularly grabs me…
I expected to see Socialist Agenda heading the market, on his handicap debut - but that’s not the case (there are 3 or 4 ahead of him in the betting).
He’s been given an opening mark of 118 - and that would look generous, if the form of his Cheltenham fourth to Datsalrightgine, can be taken literally.
In fairness, there’s a chance that it can’t (!) - but he was only a couple of lengths off 130 rated horses that day, so he could be well handicapped.
He’s also still got plenty of potential, after just 3 runs over hurdles.
Away from him, then Fiveandtwenty makes some appeal, off a falling mark, at a track where she has a very good record.
The suspicion is that she’s been targeted at this race (she won at the meeting last year), and she is an understandable favourite.
Whilst all of the others can be given chances on their best form, each of them has a significant question mark to overcome.
Things may become clearer closer to the off, by which point we will have a better feel for the state of the ground - and will also be aware of any notable betting moves - but with the information currently available, there’s a bit too much guesswork required for any confident predictions !
3:45
It seems wrong to have a ‘National’ with only 6 runners - even if it is just the Edinburgh National - but sadly, that’s the case…
A mere half dozen will go to post for this years race - tho one of them is the winner from 12 months ago, Mighty Thunder.
He hacked up that day - but should have more of a task on tomorrow, off a 19lb higher mark…
That said, he subsequently won the Scottish National off a mark just 4lb lower than he races from tomorrow - and that was a much stronger contest.
The question is whether he is in the same form this season, as he’s not shown much in 2 starts.
However, they were in races where he had very little chance of winning, so it’s probably unfair to judge him on those runs.
Highland Hunter is the early favourite - and that is completely understandable on the back of his excellent second place in the Welsh National.
The handicapper has seen fit to leave his mark unchanged after that run, which is rather surprising.
However, to counter that, he did have a very hard race - and he’s trained by Paul Nicholls (which as I keep on saying, is currently a concern).
The Wolf finished second to Full Back at Cheltenham on New Years day - and whilst that’s fair form, it’s nothing special.
It doesn’t strike me that he’s handicapped to win - so if he does win, it’ll be because none of his rivals were capable of stepping up ! (and I would hope that at least one of them could)
Captain Cattistock is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He was pulled up behind Blaklion on his belated return at Haydock on New Years eve, but ran a fair race that day behind a rival who was in top form.
His win in a Hunter Chase at Cheltenham in April, showed that he stays the trip - and he is quite attractively handicapped, on a mark of 124, based on the form he showed for Paul Nicholls, a couple of season ago…
Wetherby
2:30
There’s just the one race from Wetherby being shown on ITV - and it’s only attracted 4 runners.
However, it’s still quite an interesting contest, with the potentially high class Ahoy Senor, taken on by the rapidly improving Saint Palais.
Based on official adjusted (for age) ratings, there shouldn’t be much between the pair of them, so it’ll be fascinating to see how it pans out.
What is almost guaranteed, is that Ahoy Senor will lead - and on a track which should be well suited to his relentless galloping, he could prove hard to peg back.
Bravemansgame managed to peg him back last time - but he is also potentially top class, and Kempton is probably a bit sharp for Ahoy Senor.
Wetherby should suit him much better and provided his jumping holds up, it’s likely to take a very good one to beat him.
In truth, Saint Palais probably won’t be good enough.
He’s been a big improver this season - and his 3 chase wins have seen his official mark rise by 27lb.
However, he has only been beating up relatively modest handicappers - and Ahoy Senor is a notch or two above that level.
Ashtown Lad is also worthy of a quick mention.
He finished well behind Ahoy Senor at Newbury in November - but ran much better last time, when second to Mint Condition at Haydock.
Again, if Ahoy Senor runs his race, then he’s unlikely to beat him - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him travel strongly - and he may even be able to get the better of Saint Palais for the runner up spot.
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