Thursday, February 24, 2022

Feb 13th - Preview for Exeter & Punchestown

 Whilst there isn’t any racing on terrestrial TV tomorrow, there are a few decent races taking place, at both Exeter and Punchestown…


At Exeter, there is a Pertemps qualifier; a veterans chase - and a couple of listed races; whilst Punchestown, host a Grand National trial.

The field sizes at Exeter are on the cusp of being acceptable - with 7 runners declared in all 4 races.
Certainly, you wouldn’t want any NRs - and with heavy rain forecast, that must be a possibility…

It’s a little surprising to see just 13 declared for the Punchestown feature - though it’s a competitive enough race.

With a very short priced fav heading the betting the first of the listed races at Exeter, I’ve just previewed the other 3 ‘big’ races - plus ofcourse, the Grand National trial from Punchestown….


Exeter

3:30


Empressive Lady looks the one to beat in this Pertemps qualifier.
She stayed on strongly to land a mares handicap at Kempton on her most recent start - and even off a 5lb higher mark, must have a good chance of following up tomorrow.
Soft ground is key to her - so any rain will undoubtedly help her chances.
Top weight Fair Frontiers is an interesting contender.
He was sent of at just 5/2 on his latest start in a grade 2 novice event at Sandown.
He ran no sort of race that day, but a subsequent 2 month absence, suggests all may not have been right with him.
He has plenty of potential - so if he bounces back to form, he could prove tough to beat.
Art Approval is the solid option in the race.
He won on his penultimate start at Cheltenham in November - before running a fair fifth in a decent race at the same course on New Years day.
He’ll need to better that effort if he is to win tomorrow, but it’s possible that he will do that.
Coeur Serein looks quite well handicapped, returned to hurdles after 3 runs over fences.
He won well off a mark of 132 at Huntingdon in May - so must have a definite chance off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow.
Riggs ran very disappointingly on his most recent start at Warwick - so it’s no surprise to see cheekpieces applied tomorrow.
The form of his previous second at Haydock, is strong - and if he can recapture that, then he will have every chance.
Eminent Poet is an interesting one for Venetia.
He’s not been seen for over 2 years - but is potentially well handicapped, based on his old form.
He was second to Gold Fortune off a mark of 140 on his most recent start - but gets to run tomorrow, off a mark of just 134.
The market may give an indication of expectations - though that’s not always the case with Venetias !
Silver Sheen is the final runner - and it’s interesting that Jessie Harrington has sent him over from Ireland.
Presumably she is looking for a top 6 finish, which will guarantee him a place in the series final.
In fairness, he has got a chance based on old form - though his recent efforts have left a little to be desired…

4:00


Snow Leopardess sets the standard for this…
Not only is she the top rated horse in the race, she has also won her 2 races this season, looking better than ever in the process.
In fact, the form of both her wins has worked out really well, suggesting that her official mark of 145 might under-estimate her.
Not that official marks matter in a race of this nature - but they do provide a good way of comparing relative ability.
Based on official ratings, then Chilli Filli is the second best horse in the race.
She battled on strongly to win on her seasonal debut at Market Rasen - and then ran well when runner up to Silver Forever at Newbury.
She should run her race tomorrow and is likely to prove a tough opponent for Snow Leopardess…
Kapga de Lily is officially the third best horse in the race - and the fact that she receives 4lb from both Snow Leopardess and Chilli Filli, means that she should have every chance.
She disappointed on her most recent start at Doncaster, but that was over 2m4f.
She had previously won her 2 starts over 3 miles - so back up to that trip tomorrow, she should have every chance.
She’s one of 3 runners in the race for Venetia - and it’s quite interesting that stable jockey Charlie Deutsch, is riding Destinee Royale.
She is rated 10lb inferior to Kapga de Lily, so it would have been reasonable to expect him to be riding her.
In truth, I wouldn’t read too much into it.
Deutsch rode Kapga de Lily when she was beaten at Doncaster - whereas as Lucy Turner (who rides her tomorrow), was in the saddle when she won at Hereford on her previous start.
At the end of the day, Deutsch can only ride one in the race !
It’s hard to make a compelling case for the other 3 runners, though none of them can be completely dismissed.

4:30

It’s always good to see a veterans chase - even if numerically speaking, this race is a bit light…
That said, what it lacks in numbers, it makes up for in quality, as there are some interesting horses running…

Jerrysback is the early favourite - and it’s hard to argue with that.
He finished third to Annsam and Pheonix Way at Ascot in December, and that’s high class handicap form.
He’s since finished fifth in the Classic chase at Warwick, where he didn’t quite get home.
He will be running tomorrow from a mark 5lb lower than at Ascot - and that should  make him very hard to beat…
Run to Milan is the early second favourite - but I can’t fancy him.
Of more interest, is Encounter a Giant.
He’s only run twice under rules - and hasn’t been seen for over 2 years.
However, he showed a lot of ability, both in those 2 runs - and in a host of PTPs.
If he’s ready to do himself justice (and the market is likely to advise on that), he could be a danger to everything.
Venetia runs both Belami des Pictons and Aso - with Charlie Deutsch riding the former.
He should be more than capable of winning a race such as this off his current mark - but he has become disappointing.
He was a fair way behind Jerrysback in the Ascot race - and is worse off at the weights tomorrow.
As a consequence, it’s hard to make a strong case for him.
With Aso seemingly the stable second string, it’s also hard to make a case for him.
He was a very good horse in his prime, but age does seem to be catching up with him.
Sir Ivan has been in good form this season - but like Aso, he is now 12 and likely to be in decline.
Elegant Escape is of more interest.
Rated 162 at his peak, his rating is now in freefall and he will run tomorrow off a mark of just 143.
He showed a bit last time at Taunton, when third to Yala Enki - and tomorrows test should suit him much better (particularly if the ground turns soft).


Punchestown

2:40


The Big Dog won last years renewal of this - and he must have a chance of doubling up tomorrow, off an 8lb higher mark.
He’s only run 3 times since then and has achieved nothing - but he was impressive in winning last year and it looks significant that Jamie Codd again takes the ride.
Floueur is disputing favouritism with him.
He won a reasonable beginners chase at Fairyhouse last month - and the booking of Davy Russell, suggests that he is Gordon Elliotts main hope for the race.
He doesn’t look badly handicapped, effectively running off the same mark as when third over hurdles to Galopin des Champs at last years Cheltenham festival.
It’s hard to know whether he’s a better chaser than he was hurdler - it’s also hard to know whether he will be suited by tomorrows step up in trip - though the market will probably provide some clues !
Champagne Platinum also won a beginners chase on his most recent start at Navan.
Previously trained by Nicky Henderson, that was his third run for Enda Bolger and the suggestion was that the penny had finally dropped.
As with Floueur, Champagne Platinum ran really well over hurdles at last years Cheltenham festival, and based on that run, he too looks fairly handicapped.
There is also little doubt that he will appreciate tomorrows marathon trip.
I made Alpha Mix a Best bet on his most recent start in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, he ran no sort of race that day - and I’m not convinced that he will be suited by tomorrows step up in trip.
That said, tomorrows race isn’t as strong as the Paddy Power - so if I fancied him for that…!
Stones and Roses is the sole runner for Willie Mullins.
He too was last seen in the Paddy Power chase - but also ran poorly.
However, he should be well suited by the step up in trip - whilst his best ever run, was at Punchestown.
Torygraph is Gordon Elliotts second runner in the race - and he looks of interest, stepped up in trip.
In truth, there’s a lot of guesswork required with him - but my guess is that he’ll perform much better tomorrow than he has in his 3 previous races this season ! 

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