It’s Betfair hurdle day at Newbury tomorrow - supported by the Denman chase and the Game Spirit chase.
At Warwick, the Kingmaker novice chase takes centre stage, supported by a listed mares hurdle and the Warwick castle handicap chase.
In short, there are a number of good quality races - however, the fields for most of them are again disappointingly small.
It’s hard to know exactly where the problem lies.
The dry weather continues, with the ground at both courses is described as ‘good to soft’ (ie. relatively quick). However, it also seems that there is just a shortage of decent horses in training…
Whatever the reason, the bottom line is relatively uncompetitive racing - and that’s never ideal for betting.
That said, there are 2 or 3 interesting looking races, so I’d at least hope to be able to find bets in those…
Here are my early thoughts.
Newbury
1:15
It’s well documented, that Paul Nicholls is currently struggling for form.
Over the past 2 weeks, he’s saddled 37 runners - and just one of them has won.
More than that, the majority have run below form - a number of them, significantly below form.
He’s gone on record saying that he doesn’t know what the problem is - and whilst various tests are being carried out, he’s going to press on and hope it’s just a blip.
He’s certainly pressing on tomorrow - as he runs 3 of his big guns, at Newbury - and if the stable form wasn’t an issue, all 3 could be fancied to win.
The first of them, is Bravemansgame in the opener.
It’s very unusual to see a novice with his rating (159) contesting a handicap.
Bravemansgame is the joint highest rated UK novice, so you would expect him to be competing in a conditions race, where he would meet his rivals at level weights.
Instead, he is running in this handicap - and will have to concede in excess of a stone to some very talented rivals.
At his best, I’d expect him to be up to the task - as he’s probably different class.
However, if he’s not at his best, then it’s likely that he will struggle…
Of his rivals, only Pats Fancy and Grumpy Charlie will be carrying their correct weights.
This is a limited handicap - and Bravemansgame is rated more than 19lb superior to the other 3.
That means that they will all be carrying more weight than the handicapper feels they warrant.
Pats Fancy should be the biggest danger to Bravemansgame.
He’s taken really well to fences this season - and the form of his 2 most recent wins, looks particularly strong.
He beat Gericault Roque at Chepstow early in December: and then beat Imperial Alcazar at the same course, just after Christmas - and both of those horses have subsequently franked the form.
The issue with Pats Fancy, is that he is a stayer, and its questionable whether tomorrows race will provide a sufficient test of stamina.
The potential issue with Grumpy Charlie, is whether the ground will be soft enough.
He was a good winner over the course in December - but that was on soft ground.
He’d previously not run as well at Chepstow on good ground, suggesting that a soft surface could be key for him.
Whilst they are out of the handicap, all 3 of the other runners are quite interesting.
In theory, Fern Hill is held by Grumpy Charlie on their recent run - but he may not be as ground dependant: Gallyhill has failed to complete in a couple of novice chases this season - but it’s still early days and he looked good over hurdles, last season; whilst I K Brunel did well to win over course and distance on his most recent start.
In summary, Bravemansgame is probably different class to his rivals - but if he’s not close to top form, then at least a couple of them, could be good enough to take advantage…
1:50
This is a strange race, in so much as if the early betting was completely turned on its head, it wouldn’t strike me as wrong !
Polish won the corresponding race last year - and from the same mark he races off tomorrow.
As a consequence, it’s little surprise to see him disputing favouritism.
However, he’s been in poor form since then; this looks a stronger race - and I’m not convinced he should have won last years renewal !
He would be one of the first horses that I would dismiss from calculations…
Similarly, whilst the form of The Brimming Waters second to Unexpected Party, looks good - he has subsequently been beaten in a weaker race than this, at Haydock.
He’ll need to surpass that form ,if he is to win tomorrow.
Risk and Roll is the other market leader who can be opposed, at the prices.
In fairness, I can’t knock his recent win at Huntingdon - however, a 10lb rise for an incontinent 8 year old, hardly makes for a compelling case…
As a consequence, this race should be prime for a bet - it’s just hard to figure out which of the ‘outsiders’ to latch on to.
Whatsupwithyou has arguably the best chance - based on his fourth in last seasons Martin Pipe hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He was beaten 12 lengths that day, by Galopin des Champs - in receipt of just 6lb.
He can race off an 11lb lower mark tomorrow - and that makes him look very well handicapped.
He’s unproven over 3 miles - which is a concern - but if he stays, he will be hard to beat.
Coeur de Lion is another well handicapped horse - particularly in comparison with his flat rating.
The worry with him, is whether he will be suited to the relatively quick ground - and whether he may be in slight decline.
Sussex Ranger is also potentially well handicapped.
He won over fences at the course in February - and off a 5lb higher mark than he races off tomorrow.
He’s also on a rating 9lb lower than his last winning hurdle mark.
His current form is a questionable - though he didn’t run too badly last time, when fourth in a handicap chase at Ascot.
The Big Breakaway is the potential fly in the ointment.
He was expected to make up into a top class chaser - but has disappointed in 2 runs this season.
However, he returns to hurdles tomorrow, following a wind op, off a perfectly workable mark of 144.
He has a lot to prove - but there is a possibility that he could be different class to tomorrows rivals.
2:25
Clan des Obeaux is the second of Paul Nicholls big guns, running tomorrow.
At his peak, he is just about the best staying chaser in the UK - and he was at his peak last spring, when winning at both Aintree and Punchestown.
He’s only run once since then, when runner up in this seasons King George VI chase at Kempton.
That was a good effort, on his seasonal debut - and if he’s come on from that, then he should be very hard to beat.
Ignoring the stable form, then realistically, the only one who should be able to give him a race, is Royal Pagaille.
He’s rated 6lb inferior to Clan des Obeaux - but put up a personal best last time, when winning the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock, under top weight.
He showed a tremendous attitude that day, to get the better of Sam Brown - However he did seem to be greatly helped by the soft ground. Clearly he’s not going to get that tomorrow, and it remains to be seen how effective he will be, on the quicker surface.
Based on official ratings, the other 3 runners have got plenty on…
Imperial Aura is officially the third best horse in the race, but it’s a long time since he showed much form.
Eldorado Allen is more interesting, stepped up to 3 miles for the first time.
He’s shown good form the last twice over half a mile less - and could easily improve on that, for tomorrows extra yardage.
He really shouldn’t be good enough to beat Clan des Obeaux or Royal Pagaille - but if both happen to under-perform (which isn’t impossible), he could be up to taking advantage.
3:00
Sceau Royal won this race 12 months ago, and has a good chance of following up tomorrow.
On good ground, he’s a high class 2 mile chaser (and hurdler) - and he will get good ground tomorrow.
That said, he will have to carry 6lb more than last year, for winning last years race.
That will make things harder for him - though he still sets the standard.
On adjusted official ratings, Hitman is the best horse in the race.
He’s rated 3lb inferior to Sceau Royal - but will be receiving 6lb from him.
The main concern with him, is that he is trained by Paul Nicholls. Though by the time this race gets under way, we should have a much better feel for how Nicholls horses are performing.
If they are going well, then Hitman should be tough to beat.
Funambule Sivola represents Venetia - and there is no issue with her stable form (when is there ever ?!)
He bounced back to form when winning at Doncaster a fortnight ago - though tomorrows race does represent a step up in class.
In truth, his form isn’t quite at the level of the main 2 - though he still has scope for improvement.
With Editeur de Gite a NR (which is a shame for the race), Sky Pirate completes the field.
He won the Grand Annual at last years Cheltenham festival - and has run well (without winning) in 4 races this season.
In truth, he’s a high class handicapper - and not a graded horse - so he shouldn’t really be up to winning a race of this nature.
That said, with just 4 runners - and tactics likely to be crucial - it’s impossible to completely rule out any result.
3:35
This years Betfair hurdle looks a very tricky puzzle to solve…
It’s not helped by the fact that over half of the field are novices - so it’s hard to establish just how well handicapped they are.
More than that, 4 of the runners will be making their handicap debuts, which means they are particularly hard to assess.
JPR One is the least exposed runner in the field.
He’s only had 3 life time starts: winning on his debut at Exeter in November; before finishing a close second at Cheltenham in December and then winning again, at Taunton last month.
An opening mark of 130 looks generous - and if he’s not betrayed by his inexperience, he could prove tough to beat.
Jetoile is only slightly more experienced (4 runs under rules) and is also making his handicap debut.
He finished runner up last time in the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle, to the potentially brilliant Constitution Hill and his opening mark of 133 could easily under-estimate his ability.
Knappers Hill and I Like to Move it are the other 2 handicap debutantes - and whilst they are both rated slightly higher, it’s quite possible that they too could have been let in lightly…
Away from those 4, there are a number of lightly raced sort, who could also have plenty of improvement in them.
Broomfield Burg, Boothill, Howdyalikemenow and First Street, have all just run in one handicap apiece - and so could also be open to massive improvement.
In fact, exposed horses are a bit thin on the ground !
Soaring Glory won the race 12 months ago (when he was a novice) - and whilst he will be running off a mark a stone higher tomorrow, he can’t be easily dismissed.
That said, he shouldn’t really beat Fifty Ball. He finished runner up last year - but races off the same mark tomorrow.
As a consequence, he will be a stone better off with Soaring Glory for a 3 length beating, and that really should be sufficient to reverse the form.
It’s hard to make a case for the remaining 4 - though they can’t be completely dismissed.
In short, this looks a very tough race to call with any confidence…
Warwick
1:35
Just 4 will go to post for this, which is slightly disappointing…
Indefatigable won the race in 2020 and there is every chance that she will win it again, tomorrow !
She’s now 9, but has looked as good as ever this season - provided you ignore a slight blip, on her penultimate run at Newbury.
She certainly looked good on her most recent start, when narrowly denied by Martello Sky at Cheltenham - and if she’s in the same form tomorrow, she should be very hard to beat…
Based on official ratings, Maries Rock looks her main danger.
She is rated 7lb inferior to Indefatigable - but will receive 6lb from her tomorrow. That suggests there is likely to be little between the pair.
However, Indefatigable is the more consistent mare - as things have to go right for Maries Rock, if she is to show her best.
If the race does work out for her tomorrow, then she is likely to go very close - but with just the 4 runners, there is a chance that there could be a falsely run race.
That said, Whitehotchillifii is a mare who likes to front run, so it’ll be a little surprising if Jonny Burke passes up the opportunity of an uncontested lead.
She really shouldn’t be good enough to beat the market principals based on form, but if she gets the run of the race, then there is a chance that the form book will go out of the window.
Get a Tonic is the final runner - and she really shouldn’t be good enough.
She is still a novice, with just 4 hurdle runs to her name - and whilst she has plenty of scope for improvement, her official rating suggests she is 22lb inferior of Indefatigable, which gives some idea of the task she has on.
2:05
Again, only 4 will go to post for this - but despite that, it looks a cracker !
As we’ve seen a few times in recent weeks (Shishkin v Energumene being the most notable example), you don’t need a big field for a good race (just if you want to bet in it !)
Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki are the 2 main English contenders for this years Arkle.
They clashed in the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown, early in December, with d Edwardstone coming out on top.
Whether that’s a fair reflection of their respective ability, is a different matter however, as Third Time Lucki was sent off favourite that day, but ran disappointingly.
That was his third run in a relatively short period of time, so it is certainly possible that he wasn’t at his peak.
He was given a break after Sandown and didn’t run again until Doncaster a fortnight ago, when he hacked up in the Lightening novice chase.
That suggested he was right back to his best - and tomorrows rematch should make for compelling viewing.
Edwardstone has only run once himself since Sandown - when winning easily at Kempton over Christmas.
It’s hard to choose between the pair of them - and ultimately it’s likely to come down to which one travels/jumps best and gets the breaks in running.
That said, Brave Seasca can’t be completely dismissed.
He has a few pounds to make up with the big 2 on official ratings - but receives 5lb from them both and is on a sharp upward curve.
He was impressive last time, when easily beating Sky Pirate and in doing so, recording his third consecutive win.
For Pleasure is the final runner in the field - and whilst he’s an unlikely winner, his presence does mean that the other 3 should have a solid pace to chase (he’s a very committed front runner !).
3:15
This is arguably the most attractive race of the day, from a betting perspective…
For a start, it helps that there is a decent sized field (11) - and that a case can be made for quite a few of them.
Celebre D’allen is the early favourite - and he’s a particularly interesting one.
He has won his 2 starts this season, on the back of a 2 year absence.
Both wins were over hurdles, on heavy ground at Haydock - whereas tomorrow he faces good to soft ground over fences at Warwick !
Suffice to say, it will be a very different test - but he may well be up to it…
Our Power and Falco Blitz are challenging him for favouritism - and they both arrive on the back of recent wins.
Our Power won a small field novice handicap at Huntingdon - and doesn’t look to have been harshly treated with just a 2lb rating rise for his efforts.
Similarly, Falco Blitz won a fair handicap at Kempton - and again, a 3lb rating rise doesn’t look overly punitive.
Both must have a chance tomorrow.
Dinny Lacey is a fascinating raider from Ireland.
He’s been well backed on his 2 most recent starts - and whilst he didn’t win either, he ran well enough to suggest that the support was warranted.
He’s only been rated 4lb higher by the British handicapper - and that could prove lenient…
Cheddleton is a horse that I like - and he has run well on his 2 most recent starts.
However, as a consequence, he is getting no respite from the handicapper - and the step up to 2m4f tomorrow will need to bring about improvement, if he’s to win.
Lieutenant Rocco and Riders onthe Storm, are both interesting, at relatively big prices.
The former was a decent novice last season - and showed up well on his belated seasonal return in a good quality race at Lingfield, 3 weeks ago.
If that run has brought him on, then he could go very well tomorrow.
Riders onthe Storm ran a big race on his stable debut for Richard Hobson at Aintree in December, but then ran below form at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
However, he ran too freely that day and didn’t get home.
If he settles better tomorrow, then he could also be involved in the finish.
1:35
Just 4 will go to post for this, which is slightly disappointing…
Indefatigable won the race in 2020 and there is every chance that she will win it again, tomorrow !
She’s now 9, but has looked as good as ever this season - provided you ignore a slight blip, on her penultimate run at Newbury.
She certainly looked good on her most recent start, when narrowly denied by Martello Sky at Cheltenham - and if she’s in the same form tomorrow, she should be very hard to beat…
Based on official ratings, Maries Rock looks her main danger.
She is rated 7lb inferior to Indefatigable - but will receive 6lb from her tomorrow. That suggests there is likely to be little between the pair.
However, Indefatigable is the more consistent mare - as things have to go right for Maries Rock, if she is to show her best.
If the race does work out for her tomorrow, then she is likely to go very close - but with just the 4 runners, there is a chance that there could be a falsely run race.
That said, Whitehotchillifii is a mare who likes to front run, so it’ll be a little surprising if Jonny Burke passes up the opportunity of an uncontested lead.
She really shouldn’t be good enough to beat the market principals based on form, but if she gets the run of the race, then there is a chance that the form book will go out of the window.
Get a Tonic is the final runner - and she really shouldn’t be good enough.
She is still a novice, with just 4 hurdle runs to her name - and whilst she has plenty of scope for improvement, her official rating suggests she is 22lb inferior of Indefatigable, which gives some idea of the task she has on.
2:05
Again, only 4 will go to post for this - but despite that, it looks a cracker !
As we’ve seen a few times in recent weeks (Shishkin v Energumene being the most notable example), you don’t need a big field for a good race (just if you want to bet in it !)
Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki are the 2 main English contenders for this years Arkle.
They clashed in the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown, early in December, with d Edwardstone coming out on top.
Whether that’s a fair reflection of their respective ability, is a different matter however, as Third Time Lucki was sent off favourite that day, but ran disappointingly.
That was his third run in a relatively short period of time, so it is certainly possible that he wasn’t at his peak.
He was given a break after Sandown and didn’t run again until Doncaster a fortnight ago, when he hacked up in the Lightening novice chase.
That suggested he was right back to his best - and tomorrows rematch should make for compelling viewing.
Edwardstone has only run once himself since Sandown - when winning easily at Kempton over Christmas.
It’s hard to choose between the pair of them - and ultimately it’s likely to come down to which one travels/jumps best and gets the breaks in running.
That said, Brave Seasca can’t be completely dismissed.
He has a few pounds to make up with the big 2 on official ratings - but receives 5lb from them both and is on a sharp upward curve.
He was impressive last time, when easily beating Sky Pirate and in doing so, recording his third consecutive win.
For Pleasure is the final runner in the field - and whilst he’s an unlikely winner, his presence does mean that the other 3 should have a solid pace to chase (he’s a very committed front runner !).
3:15
This is arguably the most attractive race of the day, from a betting perspective…
For a start, it helps that there is a decent sized field (11) - and that a case can be made for quite a few of them.
Celebre D’allen is the early favourite - and he’s a particularly interesting one.
He has won his 2 starts this season, on the back of a 2 year absence.
Both wins were over hurdles, on heavy ground at Haydock - whereas tomorrow he faces good to soft ground over fences at Warwick !
Suffice to say, it will be a very different test - but he may well be up to it…
Our Power and Falco Blitz are challenging him for favouritism - and they both arrive on the back of recent wins.
Our Power won a small field novice handicap at Huntingdon - and doesn’t look to have been harshly treated with just a 2lb rating rise for his efforts.
Similarly, Falco Blitz won a fair handicap at Kempton - and again, a 3lb rating rise doesn’t look overly punitive.
Both must have a chance tomorrow.
Dinny Lacey is a fascinating raider from Ireland.
He’s been well backed on his 2 most recent starts - and whilst he didn’t win either, he ran well enough to suggest that the support was warranted.
He’s only been rated 4lb higher by the British handicapper - and that could prove lenient…
Cheddleton is a horse that I like - and he has run well on his 2 most recent starts.
However, as a consequence, he is getting no respite from the handicapper - and the step up to 2m4f tomorrow will need to bring about improvement, if he’s to win.
Lieutenant Rocco and Riders onthe Storm, are both interesting, at relatively big prices.
The former was a decent novice last season - and showed up well on his belated seasonal return in a good quality race at Lingfield, 3 weeks ago.
If that run has brought him on, then he could go very well tomorrow.
Riders onthe Storm ran a big race on his stable debut for Richard Hobson at Aintree in December, but then ran below form at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
However, he ran too freely that day and didn’t get home.
If he settles better tomorrow, then he could also be involved in the finish.
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