Best bets
Ascot1:50
Doyen Breed 0.5pt win 5/1
Haydock
2:05
Top Ville Ben 0.5pt win 7/1
Matrix bets
Ascot
1:50
Fern Hill 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 9
2:25
Larry 2 units win CEP 9.6 FP 9
Regal Encore 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 17
3:00
Straw Fan Jack 1 unit win CEP 29 FP 21
3:38
Saint Calvados 3 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
Haydock
2:40
Time to get Up 1 unit win CEP 23 FP 13
1:50
Fern Hill 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 9
2:25
Larry 2 units win CEP 9.6 FP 9
Regal Encore 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 17
3:00
Straw Fan Jack 1 unit win CEP 29 FP 21
3:38
Saint Calvados 3 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
Haydock
2:40
Time to get Up 1 unit win CEP 23 FP 13
It was good to see that all 3 meetings survived the weather
and will go ahead as planned this afternoon…
There’s an element of guesswork, with regard to the state of the ground - but my guess is that it will be ‘soft’ at Ascot and ‘heavy’ at Haydock.
Hopefully I’m right - particularly at the latter venue, as the Best bet there, is based around that assumption !
With regard to the quality of the racing, then it’s a bit better than I expected.
Certainly, most of the fields are relatively competitive and that’s not been the case on a number of recent weekends.
As a consequence, it wasn’t too hard to find some bets - though tight prices remain an issue.
I finally settled on a couple of Best bets - there might have been one or two others, but the prices wouldn’t go where I wanted.
They therefore became Matrix bets - and you’ll hopefully be able to secure better prices on them, at some point prior to the off.
Here’s a bit more detail on the thinking behind the days bets…
Ascot
The market for the 1:50 has closed up, as I suspected it might.
The 2 original markets leaders were a bit short; whilst the 2 original outsiders were a bit big.
I was most interested in the 2 in the middle - and whilst Corach Rambler has now been backed into favouritism, the price of Doyen Breed has held up sufficiently to make him a Best bet.
It’s a tight race - but I reckon he is just about the most likely winner.
I also like the fact that Sandy Thompson has brought him down from Scotland (he’ll l be his first ever runner at Ascot).
I think it’s also worth covering Fern Hill for the Matrix. He may get an uncontested lead - and if he does, he could prove hard to peg back…
The 2:25 is the first of a three competitive handicaps on the day.
A case can be made for a number of the runners - and the state of the ground and the pace in the race, may be decisive.
Fiddlerontheroof could be different class to his rivals - but there is no margin in his price.
Instead, I’d rather take a small chance on a couple of the outsiders, for the Matrix.
Larry is my main fancy in the race.
He won a similar race off a similar mark, in October. The race fell apart a little that day - but the same thing could happen today.
The other one of interest, is Regal Encore.
He’s now 14 - but is a course specialist - and I suspect he will have been teed up for today.
Again, he may need to race to fall apart if he’s to come home in front - but that’s not impossible…
Whilst there’s a temptation to take on Good Risk at All in the 3:00 - he is the most likely winner. However, he is just as likely to mess up and be unplaced !
I can easily resist him at a price of 2/1. I can also resist Zacony Rebel at 5/1.
Cap du Mathan is the most tempting of the market leaders and 6/1 is a fair price for him.
However, Straw Fan Jack is the value option in the race.
He’ll need to improve if he’s to win - but the fitting of cheek pieces suggest connections are giving it their best shot.
He’s not a Best bet - but he’s an interesting one - and certainly worth covering for the Matrix at a decent price.
I was hoping to make Saint Calvados a Best bet in the 3:38 - but the price won’t go where it should !
It’s fluctuating between 4/1 & 9/2 on the exchanges - but you’ll struggle to get 4/1 with the bookmakers (he’s generally 7/2).
It’s a competitive race and there is little margin in a price of 4/1 (and none at 7/2 !).
As a consequence, I’ll cover him on the Matrix and hope you can beat that (target 5.5 - go no lower than 5).
I would expect Dashel Drasher to run well (but not be quite good enough); Whilst Mister Fisher is capable of winning, but doesn’t want the ground too soft.
Haydock
My hope is that Haydock will be barely raceable - and if that is the case, I think Top Ville Ben will take a lot of beating in the 2:05.
He’s a mudlark, who will just gallop from the front - and hopefully his rivals will fall by the wayside, one by one (that’s the theory, anyway !).
On official hurdles rating, Thomas Darby should win - but I can’t see him being suited by conditions.
Also, he has nothing in hand of Top Ville Ben, based on the latters chase rating.
Whilst the 2 ratings shouldn’t be inter-changed - on desperate ground, I think it’s reasonable to just look at basic ability (hurdling technique is unlikely to be overly important).
The 2:40 really is a cracking race - but it’s very hard to find an angle into it.
I would have been tempted by Bristol de Mai at 8/1+ - but Pricewise put him up last night, and that was that !
I’m surprised to see Secret Repriece as big as 5/1 this morning - and he’s tempting at that price.
However, Time to Get up is the value option in the race.
He’s only run once this season - but if he can re-find his form of last spring, he should go very close.
He’s the only ride on the card for Jonjo O’Neil Jnr - despite his dad saddling 4 runners at Ascot.
He’s been a massive drifter this morning (8/1 out to 18/1) - but I’m prepared to ignore that (late moves are far more important).
He’s certainly ‘value’ at his current price - and well worth a small risk for the Matrix.
Wincanton
As 4 horse races go, the Kingwell hurdle (3:20) is one of the more interesting ones - if not one I was ever going to suggest a bet in !
It is effectively a match - and I’ve not got a strong opinion on which one of the main 2 is likely to come out on top.
Goshen is probably the more talented: but there isn’t a lot in it and Adagio is the more reliable.
You can currently get around 2/1 on Adagio on the exchanges - and that’s probably not a bad bet.
That said, it’s not a good enough bet to draw me in…
There’s an element of guesswork, with regard to the state of the ground - but my guess is that it will be ‘soft’ at Ascot and ‘heavy’ at Haydock.
Hopefully I’m right - particularly at the latter venue, as the Best bet there, is based around that assumption !
With regard to the quality of the racing, then it’s a bit better than I expected.
Certainly, most of the fields are relatively competitive and that’s not been the case on a number of recent weekends.
As a consequence, it wasn’t too hard to find some bets - though tight prices remain an issue.
I finally settled on a couple of Best bets - there might have been one or two others, but the prices wouldn’t go where I wanted.
They therefore became Matrix bets - and you’ll hopefully be able to secure better prices on them, at some point prior to the off.
Here’s a bit more detail on the thinking behind the days bets…
Ascot
The market for the 1:50 has closed up, as I suspected it might.
The 2 original markets leaders were a bit short; whilst the 2 original outsiders were a bit big.
I was most interested in the 2 in the middle - and whilst Corach Rambler has now been backed into favouritism, the price of Doyen Breed has held up sufficiently to make him a Best bet.
It’s a tight race - but I reckon he is just about the most likely winner.
I also like the fact that Sandy Thompson has brought him down from Scotland (he’ll l be his first ever runner at Ascot).
I think it’s also worth covering Fern Hill for the Matrix. He may get an uncontested lead - and if he does, he could prove hard to peg back…
The 2:25 is the first of a three competitive handicaps on the day.
A case can be made for a number of the runners - and the state of the ground and the pace in the race, may be decisive.
Fiddlerontheroof could be different class to his rivals - but there is no margin in his price.
Instead, I’d rather take a small chance on a couple of the outsiders, for the Matrix.
Larry is my main fancy in the race.
He won a similar race off a similar mark, in October. The race fell apart a little that day - but the same thing could happen today.
The other one of interest, is Regal Encore.
He’s now 14 - but is a course specialist - and I suspect he will have been teed up for today.
Again, he may need to race to fall apart if he’s to come home in front - but that’s not impossible…
Whilst there’s a temptation to take on Good Risk at All in the 3:00 - he is the most likely winner. However, he is just as likely to mess up and be unplaced !
I can easily resist him at a price of 2/1. I can also resist Zacony Rebel at 5/1.
Cap du Mathan is the most tempting of the market leaders and 6/1 is a fair price for him.
However, Straw Fan Jack is the value option in the race.
He’ll need to improve if he’s to win - but the fitting of cheek pieces suggest connections are giving it their best shot.
He’s not a Best bet - but he’s an interesting one - and certainly worth covering for the Matrix at a decent price.
I was hoping to make Saint Calvados a Best bet in the 3:38 - but the price won’t go where it should !
It’s fluctuating between 4/1 & 9/2 on the exchanges - but you’ll struggle to get 4/1 with the bookmakers (he’s generally 7/2).
It’s a competitive race and there is little margin in a price of 4/1 (and none at 7/2 !).
As a consequence, I’ll cover him on the Matrix and hope you can beat that (target 5.5 - go no lower than 5).
I would expect Dashel Drasher to run well (but not be quite good enough); Whilst Mister Fisher is capable of winning, but doesn’t want the ground too soft.
Haydock
My hope is that Haydock will be barely raceable - and if that is the case, I think Top Ville Ben will take a lot of beating in the 2:05.
He’s a mudlark, who will just gallop from the front - and hopefully his rivals will fall by the wayside, one by one (that’s the theory, anyway !).
On official hurdles rating, Thomas Darby should win - but I can’t see him being suited by conditions.
Also, he has nothing in hand of Top Ville Ben, based on the latters chase rating.
Whilst the 2 ratings shouldn’t be inter-changed - on desperate ground, I think it’s reasonable to just look at basic ability (hurdling technique is unlikely to be overly important).
The 2:40 really is a cracking race - but it’s very hard to find an angle into it.
I would have been tempted by Bristol de Mai at 8/1+ - but Pricewise put him up last night, and that was that !
I’m surprised to see Secret Repriece as big as 5/1 this morning - and he’s tempting at that price.
However, Time to Get up is the value option in the race.
He’s only run once this season - but if he can re-find his form of last spring, he should go very close.
He’s the only ride on the card for Jonjo O’Neil Jnr - despite his dad saddling 4 runners at Ascot.
He’s been a massive drifter this morning (8/1 out to 18/1) - but I’m prepared to ignore that (late moves are far more important).
He’s certainly ‘value’ at his current price - and well worth a small risk for the Matrix.
Wincanton
As 4 horse races go, the Kingwell hurdle (3:20) is one of the more interesting ones - if not one I was ever going to suggest a bet in !
It is effectively a match - and I’ve not got a strong opinion on which one of the main 2 is likely to come out on top.
Goshen is probably the more talented: but there isn’t a lot in it and Adagio is the more reliable.
You can currently get around 2/1 on Adagio on the exchanges - and that’s probably not a bad bet.
That said, it’s not a good enough bet to draw me in…
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