With Cheltenham closing in fast, it was a relatively quiet weekend.
Kempton provided the main action - supplemented by by Newcastle on Saturday and Fontwell on Sunday…Saturday
Despite the relative lack of televised races (there were just 6), it wasn’t too hard to find bets on the day.
I ended up with 3 Best bets - and a few more for the Matrix…
Deyrann de Carjac was the first Best bet to run - and I really fancied him.
He looked to have ideal conditions - and came into the race on the back of some fair performances in much better races.
To reflect my confidence, I decided to have 1 point on him - but I was to rue that decision..!
Things didn’t get off to a good start, when he made a mistake at the very first fence - but they got a whole lot worse at the third, when he didn’t take off and took a heavy fall…
In 11 previous chase runs, he’d never fallen, so why he chose this race not to pick up his hooves, only he would know !
Whether he would have won if he’d got round, is a different matter - as Flegmatic won the race well, looking an improved performer…
The next Best bet to run was Moriko de Vassy.
He was a hard one to assess - but I felt he had been under-estimated, having won 3 of his 4 races, and looking a bit unlucky not to win the other.
However, he ran no sort of a race.
In fact, it was quite bizarre, as he was under pressure almost from flag fall and never moved out of last place.
The strong suggestion was that something was not right with him - and that was backed up by the fact, that Russian Ruler, a horse he had beaten by 7 lengths on his previous outing, finished miles in front of him (and just 7 lengths behind the race winner !).
It really was a baffling performance - and another one that left me feeling as if greater powers have an issue with the Best bets !
In addition to Moriko, I covered Russian Ruler and Iceo for the Matrix - and whilst both ran much better than Moriko, neither one seriously threatened to win.
Galahad Quest was the final best bet of the day - in the Coral Trophy.
I tend to handle the big handicaps via the Matrix, because the odds available with the bookmakers are compromised by the enhanced place terms that they tend to offer in such races.
I thought that was going to be the case with, but his price drifted between 9:00 and 10:30, so I made him a Best bet.
And in fairness, he ran well (certainly much better than the days other 2 Best bets !).
He travelled nicely in rear - and moved up quite threateningly rounding the home turn.
However, that was as good as it got, as he couldn’t find any extra over the final couple of fences and could only stay on for fifth place.
The finish of the race was fought out by Cap du Nord and Kittys Light - and I covered both of them for the Matrix (along with Five Star Getaway and Zanza).
It would have better if Kittys Light had come home in front (from a P&L perspective) - but it was the well handicapped Cap du Nord who got the better of their argument.
The days other Matrix bets, were in the Edier chase at Newcastle.
I covered 4 in the race - and managed to find the winner, Win my Wings.
If the price had been there in the morning, she would probably have been a Best bet - but 6/1 in a 17 runner handicapped felt too tight.
I hoped she might drift prior to the off - but that didn’t really happen.
It’s funny how often that’s the case with the ones that win…
Sunday
There was just the one race of interest on Sunday - the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell.
I figured the race was between a couple of horses: Brewin upastorm and Darver Star.
They had met at Lingfield last month, when the former came out on top, by just over a length.
I felt that the better ground - and a likely truer run race, could help Darver Star reverse the form - and at 9/2 he looked like a good bet.
However, he was weak in the market - and his returned SP of 11/2, suggested that maybe all was not quite as it seemed.
And unfortunately, that’s how it worked out…
Like Moriko de Vassy on Saturday, he spent the entire race in last place - never threatening to mount a challenge.
Meanwhile, the horse who he should have finished along side (or at least close to), Brewin upastorm, was pipped in the final strides.
To be honest, I can’t offer an explanation for a run like that.
I’ve no doubt that I read the form book right - but for whatever reason, the horse simply didn’t run its race.
Ofcourse, it happens - they aren’t machines - but it is really demoralising…
And so ended another disappointing weekend - for the Best bets.
Of the 4 I put up, 3 barely ran a race.
I’m not sure which is worse, never featuring - or narrowly losing.
I know we’d prefer neither - but that seems to be the choice atm !
By contrast, the Matrix marches on to new highs.
The 2 winners on Saturday made a total of 25 for the season - and the P&L hit a new high, judged at CEP, FP & BSP.
There’s no good reason why things are panning out as they are - and I’m sure it is extremely frustrating for all of you who have chosen to just follow the Best bets…
Hopefully they will grab a slice of luck in the next few weeks - and at least restore some respectability to their performance this season…
TVB
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