Monday, February 28, 2022

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Fontwell

2:50
Darver Star 0.5pt win 9/2


Realistically, there was only one race that I was going to be able to suggest any bets in today - the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell.
And more than that, there were only a couple of the runners, that I was every going to be interested in…

I think the 6 runner field can be broken down into 3 groups of 2:
Allmankind and Monmiral are both good horses, capable of winning - but are likely to be using the race to ready themselves for their main spring targets.
Guard your Dreams and Botox Has aren’t quite good enough to win - though both should run their race.
Therefore, Brewin upastorm and Darver Star are the 2 to focus on…

They met at Lingfield last month and the former came out on top by just over a length.
As they meet on the same terms today, the result should in theory be the same - but I don’t think that will definitely be the case…
Darver Star travelled through that race like the best horse - he was just outstayed by Brewin upastorm.
I think he has a chance of reversing the form today, on better ground - and with Allmankind likely to ensure a strong pace.
Certainly, I think it significant that connections of Darver Star are prepared to have another go at Brewin upastorm - that suggests they believe they have a chance of reversing the form…

I don’t view it as a 2 runner race (Allmankind and Monmiral could both be dangers) - but I do think that either Brewin upastorm and Darver Star is the most likely winner (they maybe warrant a forecast).
Beyond that, it comes down to prices - and at 2/1 and 9/2, Darver Star is the value call.

Over at Naas:

Darasso was the one of possible interest in the 2:00 - but he is now a NR.
I’d slightly favour Blackbow over Captain Guiness.

In the 2:30, you can just about get 3/1 on Ballyshannon Rose - but that makes limited appeal.
I think she sets a fair standard - but she’s up against 3 or 4 interesting rivals.

In the 3:00, I was disappointed to see that Titan Jack has been withdrawn.
Maybe it takes more than 365 Euro for him to leave his stable after all :)

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