Best bets
Sandown1:15
Chef D’Equipe 0.5pt win 10/1
1:50
Moonlighter 0.5pt win 15/2
3:00
Final Nudge 0.5pt win BSP (4/1 should be achievable)
Wincanton
2:05
Grey Diamond 0.5pt win 3/1
Matrix Bets
Sandown
1:50
Bun Doran 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11
Up the Straight 1 unit win CEP 7.4 FP 7
3:00
Aso 2 units win CEP 6 FP 5.5
Prime Venture 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17
Wincanton
1:30
Inferno Sacree 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11
1:50
Bun Doran 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11
Up the Straight 1 unit win CEP 7.4 FP 7
3:00
Aso 2 units win CEP 6 FP 5.5
Prime Venture 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17
Wincanton
1:30
Inferno Sacree 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11
It’s impossible to be sure as to how the ground will ride
this afternoon…
There has been some rain at both Sandown and Wincanton - but the majority is expected from this point onwards.
I’ve assumed that it will end up 'heavy' at both courses…
I do fancy a few horses today - but it’s the same old problem.
They’ve pretty much all been backed in to half their opening prices - and whilst I don’t feel they are now massively under-priced, there prices are more likely to drift back a little, than shorten (there is no room for them to shorten).
As a consequence of todays Best bets, 1 has been advised at BSP - and the other 3 at current available prices (which are tight - but fair).
Here’s the thinking behind them - and the Matrix bets that I’ve also suggested…
Sandown
Whilst Farinet is by far the most likely winner of the 1:15, he’s been backed in much too short (at 6/4). He’s got a lot of weight to carry in very soft ground - and pulled up on his most recent appearance (so we can only guess on his well being).
Chef D’Equipe is a very realistic alternative.
I thought there was definite promise in his comeback run at Newbury - and he is undeniably well treated, if anywhere near his best.
The race lacks depth, so the opening quote of 25/1 about him last night, was quite bizarre.
10/1 is perfectly fair - as I could justify him being single figures.
However, his price is unlikely to get too short, because of the man in the saddle !
That said, I feel that his impact has been more than factored into the price - and I’m happy to make him a Best bet.
The 1:50 looks an open race - more open than the betting suggests.
I’ve no real issue with either Gunsight Ridge or Numitor - I just feel they have been put in too short.
I could construct a case for 3 or 4 of the others - but the strongest one would be for Moonlighter.
He won a near identical race, less than 12 months ago - and can race off a 3lb lower mark today.
He’s the Best bet in the race - but Bun Doran and Up the Straight are also worth covering for the Matrix.
Constitution Hill will probably win the 2:25 - but I couldn’t backed him at 2/5.
In fact, I layed him at 1.36 - and whilst I might back, if he goes above 1.5, I might not !
Ground conditions could turn this race into a lottery - and when that happens, you don’t really want to be with a short priced favourite…
I like Final Nudge best in the 3:00 - it’s just disappointing to see him backed into favouritism…
He was a 6/1 shot on the opening show - but around half that price, first thing this morning.
I would feel that 4/1 was about the ‘right’ price in a relatively competitive race - and it should be possible for you all to achieve at least that, prior to the off.
Aso is the class horse in the race - but he has drifted, due to the conditions.
At his current price (around 6), he is definitely worth a saver.
Very heavy ground will play into the hands of Prime Venture, and he is worth a minimum play for the Matrix, at likely big odds.
I have a feeling that Hermes Boy will be withdrawn from the 3:35 - and that will mess up any bets in the race.
Certainly, if the ground gets desperate, I wouldn’t expect him to run - but the ensuing R4 would be significant.
Ignoring him, I like Mack the Man best - and I would be happy to take on Hermes Boy with him, on heavy ground.
However, it just feels like there are too many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ to get involved early.
As a consequence, this is a race best tackled via the Live thread…
Wincanton
I don’t have a strong view on the 1:30 - but I’m happy to take a small risk on Inferno Sacree, for the Matrix…
There is a lot of guesswork involved (both with him - and his opponents !) - but I do like his profile, for a race such as this.
I’ve no idea which way his price will go - but at the current odds (around 12/1), he is worth a small risk.
Grey Diamond looks very much the one to beat in the 2:05.
He has good form in stronger races - and should have no issue with the trip or ground.
The hard part is getting a fair price on him…
3/1 should be achievable - and hopefully most of you be able to secure at least that, at some point prior to the off…
Belle de Manech and Another Crick are the 2 biggest dangers - but they are sat just behind him in the betting, and a definitely prefer his chance.
I don’t have a strong view on the 2:40 race.
Crossing the Bar strikes me as the most likely winner - but he’s now a pretty short priced favourite (helped no doubt, by Pricewise putting him up !)
Golden Emblem looks the ‘value’ play in the race - but I don’t feel strongly enough to suggest her as a bet.
The 3:15 is another race in which I don’t have an overly strong view.
Slate House is definitely interesting - but also risky. A lot would depend on the price (he’s 9 on the exchange as I type this - and worth a small risk at those odds).
The trouble is, cases can be made for virtually all of the runners - making it a very hard race to play in.
It strikes me as another one, best covered via the Live thread…
There has been some rain at both Sandown and Wincanton - but the majority is expected from this point onwards.
I’ve assumed that it will end up 'heavy' at both courses…
I do fancy a few horses today - but it’s the same old problem.
They’ve pretty much all been backed in to half their opening prices - and whilst I don’t feel they are now massively under-priced, there prices are more likely to drift back a little, than shorten (there is no room for them to shorten).
As a consequence of todays Best bets, 1 has been advised at BSP - and the other 3 at current available prices (which are tight - but fair).
Here’s the thinking behind them - and the Matrix bets that I’ve also suggested…
Sandown
Whilst Farinet is by far the most likely winner of the 1:15, he’s been backed in much too short (at 6/4). He’s got a lot of weight to carry in very soft ground - and pulled up on his most recent appearance (so we can only guess on his well being).
Chef D’Equipe is a very realistic alternative.
I thought there was definite promise in his comeback run at Newbury - and he is undeniably well treated, if anywhere near his best.
The race lacks depth, so the opening quote of 25/1 about him last night, was quite bizarre.
10/1 is perfectly fair - as I could justify him being single figures.
However, his price is unlikely to get too short, because of the man in the saddle !
That said, I feel that his impact has been more than factored into the price - and I’m happy to make him a Best bet.
The 1:50 looks an open race - more open than the betting suggests.
I’ve no real issue with either Gunsight Ridge or Numitor - I just feel they have been put in too short.
I could construct a case for 3 or 4 of the others - but the strongest one would be for Moonlighter.
He won a near identical race, less than 12 months ago - and can race off a 3lb lower mark today.
He’s the Best bet in the race - but Bun Doran and Up the Straight are also worth covering for the Matrix.
Constitution Hill will probably win the 2:25 - but I couldn’t backed him at 2/5.
In fact, I layed him at 1.36 - and whilst I might back, if he goes above 1.5, I might not !
Ground conditions could turn this race into a lottery - and when that happens, you don’t really want to be with a short priced favourite…
I like Final Nudge best in the 3:00 - it’s just disappointing to see him backed into favouritism…
He was a 6/1 shot on the opening show - but around half that price, first thing this morning.
I would feel that 4/1 was about the ‘right’ price in a relatively competitive race - and it should be possible for you all to achieve at least that, prior to the off.
Aso is the class horse in the race - but he has drifted, due to the conditions.
At his current price (around 6), he is definitely worth a saver.
Very heavy ground will play into the hands of Prime Venture, and he is worth a minimum play for the Matrix, at likely big odds.
I have a feeling that Hermes Boy will be withdrawn from the 3:35 - and that will mess up any bets in the race.
Certainly, if the ground gets desperate, I wouldn’t expect him to run - but the ensuing R4 would be significant.
Ignoring him, I like Mack the Man best - and I would be happy to take on Hermes Boy with him, on heavy ground.
However, it just feels like there are too many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ to get involved early.
As a consequence, this is a race best tackled via the Live thread…
Wincanton
I don’t have a strong view on the 1:30 - but I’m happy to take a small risk on Inferno Sacree, for the Matrix…
There is a lot of guesswork involved (both with him - and his opponents !) - but I do like his profile, for a race such as this.
I’ve no idea which way his price will go - but at the current odds (around 12/1), he is worth a small risk.
Grey Diamond looks very much the one to beat in the 2:05.
He has good form in stronger races - and should have no issue with the trip or ground.
The hard part is getting a fair price on him…
3/1 should be achievable - and hopefully most of you be able to secure at least that, at some point prior to the off…
Belle de Manech and Another Crick are the 2 biggest dangers - but they are sat just behind him in the betting, and a definitely prefer his chance.
I don’t have a strong view on the 2:40 race.
Crossing the Bar strikes me as the most likely winner - but he’s now a pretty short priced favourite (helped no doubt, by Pricewise putting him up !)
Golden Emblem looks the ‘value’ play in the race - but I don’t feel strongly enough to suggest her as a bet.
The 3:15 is another race in which I don’t have an overly strong view.
Slate House is definitely interesting - but also risky. A lot would depend on the price (he’s 9 on the exchange as I type this - and worth a small risk at those odds).
The trouble is, cases can be made for virtually all of the runners - making it a very hard race to play in.
It strikes me as another one, best covered via the Live thread…
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