Best bets
Ascot
2:55
Knight in Dubai 0.5pt win 5/1
2:55
Knight in Dubai 0.5pt win 5/1
Matrix bets
Ascot
1:45
Kateson 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 13
Sonigino 1 unit win CEP 17.5 FP 15
2:20
Molly Ollys Wishes 3 units win CEP 3.7 FP 3.5
2:55
Golden Whiskey 1 unit win CEP 17 FP 13
Haydock
2:35
Empire Steel 3 units win CEP 5.7 FP 5.5
Taunton
3:15
Ramses de Teille 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 9
1:45
Kateson 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 13
Sonigino 1 unit win CEP 17.5 FP 15
2:20
Molly Ollys Wishes 3 units win CEP 3.7 FP 3.5
2:55
Golden Whiskey 1 unit win CEP 17 FP 13
Haydock
2:35
Empire Steel 3 units win CEP 5.7 FP 5.5
Taunton
3:15
Ramses de Teille 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 9
There’s some good racing taking place today - but it’s mainly
racing to watch, rather than racing to bet on.
Obviously that’s true for the Shishkin v Energumene clash - but it’s also the case for a number of the other televised races…
As a result, I was left with relatively few races in which I could try to find bets - and I struggled to unearth much of significant interest.
Ultimately, I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…
Ascot
The 1:45 looks a very open contest.
Of the 11 runners, there are only 2 which I feel can be safely discounted - and they are the 2 outsiders !
I just about like Stellar Magic best - but he can’t be a bet at 4/1, in such a competitive race.
Kateson and Sonigino interest me most of those at bigger prices.
The former could get an uncontested lead: whilst the latter could improve for a step up in trip.
Both are just about big enough prices to warrant minimum plays on the Matrix.
I like Molly Ollys Wishes best in the 2:20 - the question was whether I liked her sufficiently, to make her a Best bet…
11/4 strikes me as a fair price - accepting that she faces a couple of strong opponents - and a couple of ‘dark’ ones, who could improve (one of which is now a NR).
On balance I felt there wasn’t quite enough in the price to warrant making her a best bet - but she does warrant a few units for the Matrix.
The double declaration of Fanion D’estruval (he’s also in at Lingfield tomorrow), has made it hard to assess the 2:55.
I like Knight in Dubai - but I’m concerned that we’ll get hit with a big R4 if Fanion D’estruval is withdrawn.
Ultimately, I had to make a decision - and I decide to go with Knight in Dubai as a Best bet.
I don’t think there is too much in his price (5/1) - but equally, I do think that he’s very well handicapped.
It’s likely to depend on Harry Skelton giving him the ‘right’ ride - but if he does, then I think he’ll be hard to beat.
Of his rivals, the Golden Whiskey looks over-priced - and he’s worth covering for the Matrix.
If ever there was a watching race, then it’s the 3:35.
My expectation is that Shishkin will prove to quick for Energumene - though I could be wrong !
I suspect that at least one of them will be taken to a place that it’s never been before - maybe both of them will…
Hopefully there will be no lasting damage if that does happen - though I guess only time will tell.
For today tho, we should get a race to savour…
Haydock
We should learn plenty about Jonbon in the 1:25 - but it’s not a race to bet in.
He’s looked very good in his 2 races so far this season - and even just based purely on that form, he should be too strong for his rivals.
That said, they are all young, unexposed horses - so nothing is guaranteed.
Another watching race…
Tommys Oscar really should win the 2:00 - but again, I won’t be betting on it.
Whilst he doesn’t face many serious rivals today, he has already had a number of tough races this season, so may not be at the peak of his powers.
If that’s the case, then Hunters Call is quite capable of taking advantage.
It’s hard to look beyond the ‘big 2’ - but even at 5/2, Hunters Call isn’t sufficiently appealing to consider getting involved.
I’m struggling to see past the top 3 in the betting for the 2:35 - but I’m also struggling to see any value in the early prices…
Of the 3, I like Empire Steel best - but a price of 4/1 is very tight.
The same is true of Royal Pagaille at 3/1 - whilst Remastered now looks too short at 7/2.
Outside of them, I could make half cases for literally every runner - but only half cases.
Lord Du Mesnil EW (ideally with 4 places !) is a fair bet - but for official purposes, I’ll just have a few units on Empire Steel for the Matrix and hope his price drifts a little.
Taunton
Yala Enki is the most likely winner of the 3:15 - but is of no interest at 4/6.
He’s not got a lot in hand of Ramses de Teille, based on their form from last season - and that one makes more appeal.
He’s 10/1 with the bookmakers - but bigger on the exchanges and warrants a small play for the Matrix.
I’ve also backed him in the ‘w/o the fav’ market, at 9/2 - and that strikes me as a very good bet.
Obviously that’s true for the Shishkin v Energumene clash - but it’s also the case for a number of the other televised races…
As a result, I was left with relatively few races in which I could try to find bets - and I struggled to unearth much of significant interest.
Ultimately, I’ve ended up with just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…
Ascot
The 1:45 looks a very open contest.
Of the 11 runners, there are only 2 which I feel can be safely discounted - and they are the 2 outsiders !
I just about like Stellar Magic best - but he can’t be a bet at 4/1, in such a competitive race.
Kateson and Sonigino interest me most of those at bigger prices.
The former could get an uncontested lead: whilst the latter could improve for a step up in trip.
Both are just about big enough prices to warrant minimum plays on the Matrix.
I like Molly Ollys Wishes best in the 2:20 - the question was whether I liked her sufficiently, to make her a Best bet…
11/4 strikes me as a fair price - accepting that she faces a couple of strong opponents - and a couple of ‘dark’ ones, who could improve (one of which is now a NR).
On balance I felt there wasn’t quite enough in the price to warrant making her a best bet - but she does warrant a few units for the Matrix.
The double declaration of Fanion D’estruval (he’s also in at Lingfield tomorrow), has made it hard to assess the 2:55.
I like Knight in Dubai - but I’m concerned that we’ll get hit with a big R4 if Fanion D’estruval is withdrawn.
Ultimately, I had to make a decision - and I decide to go with Knight in Dubai as a Best bet.
I don’t think there is too much in his price (5/1) - but equally, I do think that he’s very well handicapped.
It’s likely to depend on Harry Skelton giving him the ‘right’ ride - but if he does, then I think he’ll be hard to beat.
Of his rivals, the Golden Whiskey looks over-priced - and he’s worth covering for the Matrix.
If ever there was a watching race, then it’s the 3:35.
My expectation is that Shishkin will prove to quick for Energumene - though I could be wrong !
I suspect that at least one of them will be taken to a place that it’s never been before - maybe both of them will…
Hopefully there will be no lasting damage if that does happen - though I guess only time will tell.
For today tho, we should get a race to savour…
Haydock
We should learn plenty about Jonbon in the 1:25 - but it’s not a race to bet in.
He’s looked very good in his 2 races so far this season - and even just based purely on that form, he should be too strong for his rivals.
That said, they are all young, unexposed horses - so nothing is guaranteed.
Another watching race…
Tommys Oscar really should win the 2:00 - but again, I won’t be betting on it.
Whilst he doesn’t face many serious rivals today, he has already had a number of tough races this season, so may not be at the peak of his powers.
If that’s the case, then Hunters Call is quite capable of taking advantage.
It’s hard to look beyond the ‘big 2’ - but even at 5/2, Hunters Call isn’t sufficiently appealing to consider getting involved.
I’m struggling to see past the top 3 in the betting for the 2:35 - but I’m also struggling to see any value in the early prices…
Of the 3, I like Empire Steel best - but a price of 4/1 is very tight.
The same is true of Royal Pagaille at 3/1 - whilst Remastered now looks too short at 7/2.
Outside of them, I could make half cases for literally every runner - but only half cases.
Lord Du Mesnil EW (ideally with 4 places !) is a fair bet - but for official purposes, I’ll just have a few units on Empire Steel for the Matrix and hope his price drifts a little.
Taunton
Yala Enki is the most likely winner of the 3:15 - but is of no interest at 4/6.
He’s not got a lot in hand of Ramses de Teille, based on their form from last season - and that one makes more appeal.
He’s 10/1 with the bookmakers - but bigger on the exchanges and warrants a small play for the Matrix.
I’ve also backed him in the ‘w/o the fav’ market, at 9/2 - and that strikes me as a very good bet.
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