Whilst the creation of a valuable new meeting, has to be applauded - scheduling it for Lingfield in January, is a slightly bizarre move…
Of all the NH courses, Lingfield seems most hit by abandonments (anecdotally !).
Admittedly, they tend to be because of water-logging - but in January, frost is obviously also an issue.
Lingfield seem to have hit lucky on the rain front - as there has been very little for the past fortnight.
Despite that, the going description is heavy (and I suspect that is accurate).
Whether they will be as lucky with the frost, only time will tell.
Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing overnight - so the meeting will need to survive a 9:00 inspection.
I suspect it will - but it’s hardly ideal…
It’s also a little odd, that considering the amount of prize money on offer, the fields for the 5 main races are all relatively small.
The fact that just 8, 7, 5 & 7, have been declared for a quartet of £50K races, suggests something isn’t quite right.
Even the £100K feature, has attracted only 12 runners - which must be disappointing to all concerned.
Anyway, it is what it is...
As promised, I’ve previewed all 5 of the main races - and I’ll try to find some bets tomorrow morning.
I’ll almost certainly wait until the inspection has been passed (or at least, put back !) before I issue anything…
Lingfield
1:20
This mares handicap chase isn’t being shown on TV - but it’s a decent race and has attracted a competitive field.
Belle de Maneche heads the early betting - and I think that’s just about right.
She was really impressive when beating Precious Eleanor at Wincanton, over the Christmas period - before disappointing a fortnight ago, at the same venue.
However, that was over 2 miles - whereas her win was over half a mile further.
She steps back up to the intermediate trip tomorrow and I would expect that to see return to top form.
She’ll be running from a mark 10lb higher than when successful - but she may well be up to the task.
Fontaine Collognes finished behind Precious Eleanor on her latest start, at Cheltenham, a month ago,
She was sent off favourite that day - but ran disappointingly.
It’s impossible to know why that was, as on her previous start, she had beaten Precious Eleanor at Warwick.
Based on that run, there should have been little between the pair at Cheltenham.
If Fontaine Collognes can recapture her Warwick form, then she should be in the mix tomorrow.
Legends Ryde chased home L’Homme Presse on her most recent start at Ascot, last month.
The winner went of to take the grade 2 Dipper chase on his next start, thereby franking the form.
However, Legends Ryde was beaten a long way - and was in receipt of a fair chunk of weight.
As the Ascot race also seemed to fall apart, it’s hard to know exactly what Legends Ryde achieved in finishing second.
Pure Bliss won over hurdles at Punchestown in the spring - and whilst she has disappointed a little on her 2 chase starts this season, she has been dropped 6lb as a result.
She also steps up to 2m4f tomorrow - and should handle the heavy ground.
All 4 of the other runners can be given a chance - so this certainly looks an open race.
1:50
It looks just as hard, trying to find an angle into this contest…
Eclair D’Ainay is the early favourite - and whilst I can understand that, I’d be prepared to take him on at just 7/4.
He was a good winner of the Castleford chase on his most recent start - but a 7lb rise for that win, means that things will be tougher for him tomorrow.
He may get an uncontested - which would help - but regardless, he is going to have his work cut out to double up, from his new mark.
In theory, Frero Banbou has nothing in hand of his rating, as he’s been comfortably beaten on his 2 starts this season - and will be no lower tomorrow.
However, both of those defeats came in strong races - and I suspect he is a little better than his current mark.
I also suspect that he will handle tomorrows ground better than many of his rivals - and he looks the most likely race winner to me…
Le Ligerian bounced back to form when winning last time at Chepstow - and even from a 5lb higher mark, he is potentially well handicapped.
The issue with him is that he is quite exposed - whilst the race he won, was relatively weak.
Cedar Hill beat Eclair D’Ainay at Kelso in March - and meets him tomorrow, on very similar terms.
I wouldn’t expect there to be much between the pair - so at the early prices (Cedar Hill is 7/1), it’s not hard to see where the value is.
Financier is the final one of interest.
He didn’t show much on his seasonal debut at Ascot last month - but he has been dropped 4lb for that run (which seems generous).
He also drops back in trip by half a mile tomorrow - and I suspect will be well suited by a return to the minimum.
He should handle tomorrows conditions and whilst I doubt he has much in hand of his mark, he may not need to have…
2:25
Just 5 runners for a £50K race, doesn’t feel right - particularly when none are outstanding performers…
On the Blind Side looks the one to beat - both on official ratings and form this season.
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Newbury, when splitting Thomas Darby and Paisley Park in the grade 2 Long distance hurdle.
He didn’t run quite as well next time, when only finishing sixth at Ascot - though admittedly, that was in the grade 1 Long Walk hurdle.
His most recent effort was quite poor - but that was in the Relkeel hurdle over 2m4f and he simply lacked the pace to be competitive that day.
He’ll be far more at home, racing back at 3 miles - with heavy ground putting an emphasis on stamina.
He looks the one to beat…
Emitom appears his main danger.
He’s another one who needs 3 miles in testing ground to be seen at his best.
He’s been running over fences recently - but is clearly better over the smaller obstacles.
He finished fourth in the 2020 stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - and if he can get back to anything like that level of form, he’s likely to win.
According to the betting, Calva D’Ague is the other main player in the race - but I’m not so keen on him.
He has a very different profile to both On the Blind Side and Emitom, as he’s stepping up to graded level having won a series of handicaps.
I’ve no issue with that, however he was ridden by conditional jockey, Angus Chelda when winning all of his handicaps - and his claim was almost certainly a big factor in him racking up his wins.
Harry Cobden takes over in the saddle tomorrow - so Calva D’Ague will be on a level playing field with his rivals.
I’m also far from convinced 3 miles in heavy ground, will bring out the best in him…
Top Ville Ben will love the conditions - and has a very good chance, based on his chase form.
The question is whether he can replicate his chase form, back over hurdles.
If he can, then he should go very close…
3:00
This is another tight little race, in which all 7 runners can be given a chance.
Broken Halos third to Pats Fancy and Gericault Roque at Chepstow, early in December, is good form.
The winner has won again since - and it now rated 17lb higher than he was that day: whilst the runner up has subsequently run 2 big races in defeat and is now 10lb higher.
Broken Halo himself has since won at Exeter - and finds himself rated 12lb higher than he was that day.
Ofcourse, handicap ratings are irrelevant in a conditions race such as this - but the strength of the Chepstow form, can’t be denied…
Fantastikas can also boast strong recent form, courtesy of a third placing in the grade 2 Dipper chase, on New Years day.
He was no match for L’Homme Presse that day - but he was only beaten 2.5 lengths by The Glancing Queen - and had a number of decent performers in behind.
The Heavy ground is a concern for Fantastikas - but if he handles it, he should go very close.
Hold that Taught is likely to relish the heavy ground - however, his form does not yet match up to that of either Broken Halo or Fantastikas.
As a 7 year old, facing ideal conditions, he could put in an improved performance tomorrow - but he’ll need to.
Midnight River is quite hard to assess.
He was a very decent novice hurdler last season - but jumped poorly before falling on his chasing debut at Carlisle.
He was then given a confidence boosting run over hurdles - and that did the trick as he won well on his most recent start, when returned to fences at Wetherby.
Even more guesswork is required with Queenofhearts, who will be debuting for Kim Bailey after nearly 400 days off the track.
She will also be making her chasing debut - so whilst there is no doubt over her basic ability, whether she’ll b ability to show it tomorrow, is a different matter.
That said, she receives weight from all of her rivals - and nearly a stone from most of them. She will also have no issue with underfoot conditions - so if she is ready to do herself justice and her jumping holds up, she should go very close.
Colonial Dreasm has a chance based on ratings - but doesn’t have much scope for improvement and is unproven on heavy ground; whilst Bushy Park ran poorly on heavy ground last time and also lacks the scope of some of his rivals.
3:35
I’m genuinely amazed to see just 12 horses declared for a 0-145 race worth £100K.
I can understand the small fields for top class races - as sufficient horses just don’t exist - but the lowest rated horse in this race has a mark of just 117.
There are literally hundreds of horses rated above that, who regularly compete for a fraction of the money on offer in this race - so why so few of them want to run in this race, I’ve no idea !
Anyway…
With a straight bat, Metier should be the one to beat.
He won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle last season, on heavy ground - before disappointing in the supreme hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He also disappointed on his return at Sandown - but then ran a good race, when fourth to Tritonic in a hot handicap at Ascot, just before Christmas.
Somewhat surprisingly, he was dropped 3lb for that run - and is now rated just 139.
You won’t see many grade 1 winner competing off that mark, just 4 runs later !
However, I’m not sure that this race is best approached with a straight bat !
There are 3 Irish raiders - and I suspect they are the ones to concentrate on.
Carrarea and Sevanna Star are both trained by Emmet Mullins - and he has previous in these kind of races.
Of the pair, Carrarea is by far the most interesting.
He’s very lightly raced, with just 4 runs over hurdles. He ran really well last time, on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse, when finishing runner up in a strong race.
He’ll have to run from a mark 11lb higher tomorrow - but he could easily be up to the task.
The fact that Paul Townend has been brought over for just the one ride, is another big positive.
I suspect he’s the one to beat.
Lucky Max is the other Irish challenger - and he will be seeking a four timer.
He’s won big field handicaps on his last 3 outings - and is clearly improving at a rate of knots.
However, as a consequence, he will be running tomorrow off a mark 40lb higher than when winning the first of those races - and that’s a serious ask.
Nothing really stands out of the other UK based runners.
Mack the Man is probably the most interesting of those at big prices, if he can recapture his form.
He would have gone very close in the Betfair hurdle, the season before last - but hasn’t really gone on from there.
I fancied him last time, when he seemed to have plenty in his favour at Sandown - but he ran disappointingly. That run would need to be ignored - but if it is, then he looks over-priced.
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