From a betting perspective, this has ended up a disappointing weekend…
The races on offer, could have produced a cracker - but the horses just haven’t turned up.There were 4 odds in favs in 8 televised races today - and it’s going to be a similar situation tomorrow…
There are 7 races on TV - but 3 of them have fields of 3/4 - whilst 2 of the others aren’t really betting contests.
As a consequence, I’ll be focusing on just a couple of races (and there is already a significant NR in one of those).
It does make things difficult…
Still, there’s nothing I can do about it - other than press on, keep my discipline - and try to find the odd decent opportunity, when it does raise its head !
Here’s my thoughts on tomorrow races (cut short, when I really don’t think a betting angle is there)
Lingfield
1:20
Whilst this is an interesting race, it’s not one that can be tackled with any confidence, from a betting perspective…
Ballygrifincottage is the early favourite - and that’s understandable.
Not only did he win 3 PTPs in Ireland, he made a really promising debut over hurdles, when third to Blazing Khal at the Cheltenham December meeting.
That one was fav for the Albert Bartlett, until injury ruled him out of the race, earlier this week.
Ballygrifincottage finished just 6 lengths behind him - and on that run, sets the form standard for this race.
Fameaftertheglory appears to be his most interesting opponent.
He’s trained in Ireland by Gavin Cromwell, so it’s significant that he sends him over for this (presumably accompanying Darver Star).
He’s finished runner up in 2 novice hurdles this season, showing a decent level of form on both occasions.
He should also have no issue with the likely heavy ground - which is not something that can be said for Ballygrifincottage…
All of the other runners look quite interesting - but the one that particularly catches my eye, is Crossing Lines.
He ran a big race at Chepstow, on his debut for David Pipe - having not run for a couple of years prior.
He finished behind Dom of Mary in that race - but was conceding race fitness and I would expect the placings to be reverse tomorrow.
Whether he will be good enough to win, is a different matter - but I could certainly see him out running his odds…
1:50
Just 5 have been declared for this - but with Shakem Up’Arry having run at Haydock today, only 4 are likely to go to post.
More than that, Richidish appears to have virtually no chance.
So then there were 3…
In fairness, they are a reasonably talented trio - but you would still expect a more competitive race, with £50K up for grabs.
Favoir looks the least likely winner - as heavy ground is unlikely to suit him.
Based on form, War Lord should have the beating of Il Ridoto - as he comfortably got the better of him, when the pair clashed at Newton Abbot, in October; and also finished well ahead of him, last time, in the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown.
However, it might not be quite that straightforward, as Il Ridoto was making his UK debut at Newton Abbot; and was backing up just a week after winning at Newbury, when they ran at Sandown.
That said, It would be hard to suggest Il Ridoto - particularly when there isn’t much in their respective prices (2/1 & 3/1).
In truth, this is likely to be a watching race - but once Shakem Up’arry has been withdrawn, a significant drift on either of the main 2 could make them of some interest…
2:25
Another 3 horse race - and this time it’s worth £100K !
The racecourse executive really must despair…
Again, in fairness, they are 3 decent runners - but as a betting contest, the appeal is minimal.
Brewin’upastorm looks the most likely winner - but he is also the 6/4 fav.
He was an impressive winner on his seasonal return at Aintree - and may well have followed up at Cheltenham on new Years day, if he’d not fallen at the last.
Assuming that’s not left a mark, he should be hard to beat tomorrow.
The main question, is whether he can give 6lb to a rejuvenated Darvers Star…
He finished third in the 2020 Champion hurdle - and was sent over fences the following season.
However, he’s not a natural chaser (similar to Brewin’upastorm), and he reverted to hurdles on his most recent start.
That went well, as he bolted up by 20 lengths - tho the value of the form is open to question, with the 2/5 fav running no kind of a race.
He’s likely to get a much sterner test tomorrow - so we should find out whether he really is back to his best (or at least, close to his best).
Goshen is the final runner in the field - and he is quite interesting.
Whilst he is much better going right handed; heavy ground and a 2m4f trip, may well offset that issue.
I could see him getting an uncontested lead - and if that does happen, then the race could get interesting.
In truth, it is likely that he will set things up for the other two - but if Jamie Moore is allowed too much rope, then he might prove difficult to reel in.
3:00
With Fanion Destruval almost certain to be a NR in this, there will be a big R4 on early prices (25p in the £1)
The most striking thing about the race, is the amount of early pace.
No less than 5 of the 6 runners, like to make the running - so a few of them are going to be disappointed !
I’ve no idea how things will work out - but my guess is that Bristol de Mai and Two for Gold will be too slow to lead - as will Lieutenant Rocco.
That could leave Dashel Drasher and Master Tommytucker, taking each other on - and I would expect the former to win that battle…
And in truth, he is probably the one to beat - following a particularly gutsy win over hurdles, on his most recent start.
Trip and ground should both suit him fine - whilst he has every chance on official ratings.
The other one of major interest, is Itchy Feet.
The main attraction with him, is that he’s the one runner in the race who will be happy to sit off the pace, so things should work out well for him.
Of the flip side, he’s a bit of an under-achiever - and you would certainly be a little nervous, if you were on him and he got into a battle !
Bristol de Mai is the class horse in the race - and has been targeted at it.
However, I was disappointed with him last time at Haydock, when he jumped as if still remembering his Aintree experience from last spring.
As tomorrows trip will also be a bare minimum for him, he can be opposed at around 3/1.
3:35
This is by far the most interesting race of the day (possibly the weekend !) from a betting perspective…
15 runners will go to post - and quite a few can be given a chance.
Go Whatever heads the market, following his win in the Sussex National, 3 weeks ago.
The form of that race has been well franked in the last few days, with El Paso Wood and Eragon de Chanay, both winning at Wincanton on Thursday.
That suggests it’s strong form - and even off a 7lb higher mark, Go Whatever must have a good chance.
That said, Pemberley looks at least as interesting…
He was 7 lengths behind Go Whatever in second spot - but his rating has remained unchanged.
He must have a very good chance of reversing the form, at the revised weights.
Not that this is a 2 horse race…
Venetia saddles Laskalin - and he looked like a horse coming into form, when runner up at Exeter on his most recent start.
That was only his third UK start - and it’s not hard to imagine him showing improved form as he settles into his new surroundings.
Just your Type finished fourth in a much hotter race than this at Haydock, on his most recent start.
That said, he never looked likely to win that day - and may struggle to confirm the form with Fado des Brosses.
He finished unplaced in the same race - but it was his seasonal debut and he showed up well, to the home turn.
He should be straighter tomorrow - whilst a 3lb rating drop will also help his cause.
Eclair Mag came in for a crazy amount of support on his most recent start, in the Lincolnshire National.
It came unstuck when he fell at the tenth fence - but clearly someone felt he was well handicapped.
Little Red Lion looks the most interesting of the outsiders.
He has a chequered record in that he’s won 4 of his last 8 races - but not completed the course on the other 4 !
He’s evidently quite hard to predict - but if he’s on a going day, then he clearly knows how to win !
Thurles
2:40
Minella Melody and Jeremys Flame look the 2 to focus on in this - though they head the early market…
The former will be making her chasing debut - but as an ex PTP winner, I would expect her to be fine over the bigger obstacles.
She did very well during her first season over hurdles - and on the back of winning her first 3 starts, was sent off a short priced fav for the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
However, she disappointed in that race - and hasn’t fully recaptured her form since.
That said, she has run consistently in a number of graded races - demonstrating a high level of ability.
Jeremys Flame can’t really match that level of basic ability - but she has got significant chasing experience.
However, it was only on her most recent start, that she managed to finally get her head in front - on her eighth run over fences !
In fairness, she had run well when up against decent opponents on her 3 previous starts this season - so it would appear that it has just taken time for the penny to fully drop.
If there is to be a ‘shock’, then Robinnia looks the one most likely to cause it.
She fell at the first on her most recent start, in a race in which Jeremys Flame finished runner up.
However, Robinnia was sent off at half the price of Jeremys Flame that day, suggesting that she could well have run a big race if she had stood up…
3:15
Just the 4 go to post for this - and again, it’s a case of quality over quantity…
And in fairness, they don't get much better than Allaho - at least when you are looking at the intermediate trip.
He was a wildly impressive winner of the Ryanair chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival - galloping the opposition into submission and eventually coming home 12 lengths clear of Fakir D’oudaries.
He was beaten on his final start of last season - but lost little in defeat over 2 miles up against the top class Chacun Pour Soi.
He then did really well to win a brutal John Durkan chase on his seasonal return at Punchestown, early in December.
That race turned into a war - but he toughed it out and again finished well in front of fourth placed Fakir D’oudaries.
Between those 2 defeats, Fakir D’oudaries has won at both Aintree and Clonmel - however, it’s hard to see why he would reverse the form with Allaho tomorrow.
It’s also hard to see why either Notebook or Battleoverdoyen would be able to beat Allaho.
Both are decent animals - but they are not in Fakir D’oudaries class, never mind Allahos…
In short, all things being equal, Allaho should win this - and win it well…
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