Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Newbury

2:35
Cobolobo 0.5pt win 18/1

Matrix bets

Newbury

1:25
The Russian Doyen 1 unit win CEP 9.8 FP 11

2:35
Gericault Roque 1 unit win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
Crypto 1 unit win CEP 9 FP FP 7

3:05
Go Dante 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 15

Doncaster

2:50
Danny Whizzbang 1 unit win CEP 26  FP 17

Leopardstown

1:45
Bacardys 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11

When I first looked at todays fields, I had high hopes.
At Newbury in particular, there are a number of seemingly competitive handicaps - so I didn’t think that finding bets would be tricky.

However, when I looked a bit deeper, I found that the races weren’t quite as strong as the numbers suggested.
Most of the races could be whittled down to 3 or 4 - and it didn’t take long for the betting to reflect that.

Come this morning, and pretty much all of the horses of interest, were trading at 4/1 or less - and with 2 or 3 others of significant interest in each race - and allowing for the ‘luck’ variable, it doesn’t make sense to get involved at those kind of prices.

Ofcourse some of them may drift close to the off - but that’s no good when you are tipping early.

As a consequence, there is just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few more speculative ones for the Matrix.


Newbury

I like Early du Lemo best in the 1:25 - but he’s taking on a couple of improvers - and there is no margin in an early price of 3/1.
The Russian Doyen is quite interesting at a bigger price - accepting that he’s also quite risky !
He’s worth a small play for the Matrix.

Masters Legacy, Beauport and Dashel Drasher are the 3 of interest in the 2:00 - but at 7/2, 7/2 and 4/1, there’s again no margin in the early prices.
Half chances can be given to a few of the others - and Pounding Poet would become interesting, if he reached double figures on the exchanges.
However, at the prices currently available, I can’t see an angle into the race.

Again, the obvious ones have gone very short in the 2:35 - with Saint Palais and Gericault Roque now trading at prohibitively short prices.
Crypto has been a little less popular - but he is the one I fancy least, of the main 3…
Nestor Park has apparently been laid out for the race, which explains why he’s been well backed.
Any of the 4 could win - but I do think that Cobolobo has been overlooked…
His run behind Enqard at Ascot in January, gives him a really good chance - and he’s off a mark 4lb lower today.
I also thought he showed distinct promise on his return at Aintree.
He’s the only runner on the card for the Jonjos - and at 18/1, he is definitely worth a bet…
Rather than go EW - I’ll cover a couple of the main dangers for the Matrix.
I think Gericault Roque is the most likely winner: whilst Crypto is now a little over-priced…

There’s a lot of guesswork required in the 3:05 - tho I suspect Stage Star has been overbacked, because of his similarities with Bravemansgame.
That’s not to say he can’t win - just that he’s been put in too short.
Gringo D’aubrelle could well end up a ‘value’ price (he’s 9.4 on the exchanges, as I type) - but for the Matrix, Go Dante is worth a small risk.
He’s very highly thought of - and his disappointing run last time, can be explained by relatively quick ground (which he won’t face today !).

I was quite tempted to have a crack at the 3:35 - but there’s too much guesswork required…
Valleres is tempting - on a recovery mission, after a disappointing run at Newcastle; whilst I have a feeling that Grumpy Charlie could be quite well handicapped (and will appreciate conditions).
However, Fern Hill is a solid favourite: whilst Pactrolus has a great deal of potential (and Nicky Henderson tends to unleash his better horses at Newbury).
I’d be against the other 3 runners - but that doesn’t provide enough of an angle to entice me to get involved with the race.

Doncaster

I quite like the look of Cat Tiger in the 2:50 - and would have made him a Best bet at the early 6/1.
However, Paul Kealy put him up last night in the RP - and 6/1 became 4/1…
I suspect he will drift as the off approaches (he’s 9/2 as I type) - but from an early bet perspective, the damage has been done.
Danny Whizzbang is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s becoming well handicapped - and will relish the conditions.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix…

Zambella should win the 3:20 - though heavy ground would play into the hands of Kapga de Lilly.
I can’t see beyond the pair of them - but neither can the betting !

Leopardstown

The 1:45 looks a very open race - and no result would really surprise me…
Run Wild Fred sets the form standard - but equally, he doesn’t strike me as a grade 1 horse (tho he might not need to be one, in order to win !)
Vanillier would have been tempting at 5/1 - but not at 3/1…
Therefore, I think it is just worth having a small play for the Matrix, on Barcardys.
He’s risky - but he has the natural ability to win, if he puts it all together…

It’s hard to see beyond Sharjah in the 2:20.
Echoes of Rain looks the only realistic danger - but she will need to have improved massively on her seasonal debut if she’s to beat him.
I think you could argue that he’s actually a bit of value, at 4/5 - but they aren’t odds that are ever likely to attract me in… 

Dec 29th - Preview for Newbury, Doncaster & Leopardstown

Tomorrow sees the final day of the 2 Irish Christmas festivals; whilst they also race at Newbury, Doncaster & Kelso, in the UK.

Once again, the ITV cameras are busy: covering 5 races at Newbury, plus a couple at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.

I’ve previewed all 9 - and am hopeful I’ll be able to find a few bets.

I’ll look to issue at the usual time in the morning (ie. just after 9:00) - tho if the markets are too weak, I’ll delay until 10:30…


Newbury

1:25

This is a relatively low grade race for the track, and there’s a chance that Early du Lemo will outclass his rivals.
He tends to run in better quality races - and the handicapper has given him a real chance tomorrow.
He dropped him a pound for a perfectly creditable run on his seasonal debut, behind One True KIng.
As a result he will is now rated 1lb lower than his last winning mark.
He sets the race standard.
The question is whether any of his rivals are capable of surpassing that level…
Doukarov and Gallic Geordie look the 2 most likely.
The both come into the race on the back of recent wins - and both appear to be improving…
Doukarov won a small field handicap over course and distance on his latest start.
It looks as if connections have figured out how best to ride him - and if they have found the key, then he could easily build on that win.
Gallic Geordie has won his last 2 starts - both at Lingfield.
It remains to be seen whether he will be as effective away from that track - and in a stronger race - but he still has plenty of scope off his current mark.
The Russian Doyen is the most interesting of the outsiders.
I quite fancied him for last seasons Paddy Power gold cup, when he was running off a mark of 138.
He runs off 119 tomorrow - and showed a little more promise last time at Chepstow.

2:00

Masters Legacy sets the standard for this.
He finished runner up in a similar race over course and distance in November - and must have a good chance tomorrow, off a mark 3lb higher.
The question is simply, whether anything in the race can surpass that level…
Beauport looks the most likely.
He bolted up in the EBF final at Sandown in March - and that is always a very strong race.
The runner up, Riggs, finished second in a good handicap at Haydock in November, thereby franking the form.
Beauport himself, finished runner up on his seasonal debut at Sandown - a run that showed distinct promise.
The biggest issue with him, is likely to be his price - as the opening 6/1 is already a very tight 4/1 !
Pounding Poet probably bumped into one at Aintree, when runner up to Tamar Bridge.
All the same, a 5lb rating rise looks a little harsh.
Whilst Dashel Drasher could be the fly in the ointment, off a mark 10lb lower than his chase mark.
He’s also likely to get an uncontested lead, which would definitely help his cause.
Dickie Diver is the final one worthy of a mention, as I suspect he’s a fair bit better than his current mark of 140.
That said, whether he’ll be at his best over 2m4f on his seasonal debut, is a different matter…

2:35

3 unexposed chasers head the betting in this - and there’s a good chance that one of them will come home in front…
The 4 year old Saint Palais is the early favourite - on the back of a very impressive win at Wetherby.
He bolted up that day - and whilst things won’t be as easy for him tomorrow off a 10lb higher mark, he’s clearly a horse on the up.
Gericault Roque is yet to win a chase - tho he’s only had 2 tries.
He ran a fair third on his chasing debut at Wetherby in October: but stepped up significantly on that last time, when runner up to Pats Fancy at Chepstow.
The winner went in again yesterday off - effectively off a 10lb higher mark - so the form looks strong.
Gericault Roque must have every chance off a mark 4lb higher…
Cypto is the most experienced of the trio - even tho he’s only run 3 times over fences !
He won on his final start last season - and ran really well on his seasonal debut at Bangor.
If he’s come on for that run, they he should be right in the mix tomorrow.
Cobolobo looks the most interesting of the exposed runners.
He ran Enqard close at Ascot, last January - and has had excuses for 3 subsequent poor runs.
He’s now down to a mark 4lb lower than at Ascot, so if he’s back in form, he’s handicapped to go well.
Whilst Run to Milans remote fourth to Iwilldoit, looks a lot better in light of the winner taking the Welsh National.
Run to Milan was just in front of Truckers Lodge in that race - and he finished third to Iwilldoit on Monday…

3:05

It’s interesting that Gordon Elliott has brought over Gringo D’aubrelle to run in this - and based on his second to Blazing Kahl at Galway in October, he has a definite chance.
He’s since hacked up in a bumper and won won a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse - so is clearly a talented performer.
The home defence is headed by Stage Star.
He made a big impression when winning a novice hurdle over course and distance last month.
The form itself is not outstanding - but he won with plenty in hand and could be anything.
Lossiemouth sets the form standard, courtesy of his win in a grade 2 at Sandown, earlier this month.
He’s a relentless galloper - who is well suited by soft ground.
All of the others are quite interesting - so a shock isn’t completely out of the question.
Party Business was really impressive when wining at Ascot - and I would expect him to run well - provided he handles the left hand track and the ground isn’t too soft; By contrast, Go Dante would probably appreciated soft underfoot conditions, having disappointed last time on good.

3:35

This is a really interesting looking novice handicap chase, in which most of the runners can be given a chance…

Fern Hill ran really well on his chasing debut when narrowly beaten by Come on Teddy - and it’s no surprise to see him installed the early favourite on the back of that.
Flash Collonges was destroyed by Ahoy Senor on his chasing debut - but the winner is from the top drawer, so there was little shame in that.
Flash Collonges is better judged on his win over hurdles at Kelso last season - and based on that, he definitely has a chance.
Pactrolus was sent off fav for last season NH novice final at Sandown - but was pulled up.
Connections blamed the ground - and as he’d beaten Riggs on his previous start,
and that one finished runner up in the race - he clearly should have gone close.
Valleres ran really well on his chasing debut over this course in November - before disappointing next time at Newcastle.
His jumping let him down that day, so it’s interesting to see that connections reach for cheek pieces tomorrow (presumably to sharpen him up).
Grumpy Charlie racked up a hatrick of hurdles wins last season, before getting outclassed in the supreme hurdle at Cheltenham.
He was well beaten on his chasing debut at Chepstow, but if he’s come on for that, then he would have a chance.

Doncaster

2:50

There could be some serious pace on in this, with Chirico Vallis, Glen Forsa and Kalooki, all liking to front run.
As Chirico Vallis will probably insist on it, the other 2 are likely to have to sit in behind.
In fairness, neither went from the front on their most recent outings - but both did  disappoint…
Chirico Vallis made all on his most recent start at Chepstow - and then held on grimly.
He’s been raised 5lb for that effort - but if he gets into a rhythm up front, he could again prove hard to pass.
Oscar Robertson could benefit from a strong pace.
He hacked up last time at Wetherby - and whilst it was a weak race, he did win it very easily.
A mere 4lb rating rise certainly gives him the benefit of the doubt - and he clearly has a chance tomorrow.
Cat Tiger is the other one of major interest.
He was sent off fav for the Grand Sefton on his most recent start - but never really featured.
He’s been dropped 2lb for that, which is generous - and appears to be attractively handicapped (tho it’s hard to say for sure !)

3:20

Zambella and Kapga de Lilly dominate the betting for this - and it’s hard to argue with that.
On official ratings, the pair have at least 10lb in hand of their rivals - so it will be a bit of a shock if one of them doesn’t win.
Choosing between them isn’t easy, as they both come into the race in top form.
Zambella arguably put up a personal best last time, when beating Annie Mac at Aintree; whilst Kapga de Lilly has been impressive in winning both of her starts this season.
The 2m4f trip is likely to be a bear minimum for Kapga de Lilly - and that could swing things in favour of Zambella.
The trip on soft ground should be ideal for her - and although she has to concede 4lb to all of her rivals, she may well be up to the task.
Midnightreferendum looks most likely to chase the principals home - assuming she has fully recovered from a heavy fall at Aintree, last time.

Leopardstown

1:45

This looks a really open race, in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
Vanillier just about heads the market - and if he can run to the level he achieved when winning the Albert Bartlett at last seasons Cheltenham festival, he will be hard to beat.
He’s not quite managed that in his 2 starts so far over fences - but stepping up to 3 miles tomorrow will help him.
Run Wild Fred and On the Ropes have both won good handicaps this season - and set a fair standard.
On the Ropes took the Munster national - and then finished fourth in the Ladbrokes trophy; whilst Run Wild Fred hacked up in the Troytown.
In truth, neither was a grade 1 performance - however, both horses have plenty of scope for improvement.
Bacardys has been a borderline grade 1 performer over hurdles in the past - and put up a really good effort when chasing home Bob Olinger at Gowran.
His previous attempts at chasing haven’t been too successful - but there was definite promise in his most recent run.
If he can repeat that, then he could well be in the mix.
Fury Road has also been a borderline grade 1 performer over hurdles - and he’s also run well on his 2 chase starts this season.
However, there is a doubt concerning his stamina over 3 miles…

2:20

It’s hard to look beyond Sharjah in this…
He’s won the last 3 runnings of the race - and looked as good as ever when taking the grade 1 Morgianna at Punchestown last month.
He destroyed Zanahiyr and Echoes of Rain that day - and it’s hard to see why either would reverse the form tomorrow.
The fact that they are second and third favs, does make Sharjah look a bit of a good thing…
It is possible to make a bit of a case for Echoes of Rain, as she was making her seasonal debut that day - and did look as if she would improve for the run.
She was a big improver last season - and had threatened to make up in a Champion hurdle contender, so it’s maybe premature to write her off after one disappointing run.
That said, she has got 15 lengths to make up on Sharjah - who was also making his seasonal debut and will be racing under his ideal conditions tomorrow.
If she does manage to beat him, then Honeysuckle had better watch out !
The other 3 runners make minimal appeal - so it really does look Sharjahs race for the taking…

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Limerick

2:40
Espanito Bello 0.5pt win 9/1

Matrix bets

LImerick

2:40
Full Time Score 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 13

It was very tempting to swerve todays racing completely…

As I said in the preview yesterday evening, the UK racing is particularly poor - and whilst there are some good races taking place at Leopardstown, they don’t have the right shape for betting (short priced favs, who will be hard to beat).

There is really only one race of interest - but it’s at Limerick.
I’ve no issue with Limerick (!) - but the exchange markets for races there, are incredibly weak (even at 10:30).

The issue I had, was that I’d got quite a strong fancy - and all of the conventional bookmakers were offering a fair price (9/1).

As it’s in a competitive handicap, plenty of the other runners will be backed - so if you have to back on the exchanges, it should really just be a case of biding your time and waiting for an acceptable price (which will come - eventually !).
If you don’t want to wait around, then I suggest you just ask for BSP (in this instance).

Anyway, enough of my trials and tribulations - here’s my thoughts on the actual races…

Leopardstown

The likely presence of Ardhill made the 1:10 a near impossible race to play in.
As it happened, he didn’t get a run - but by the time he’d been withdrawn, I’d already decide to swerve the contest.
In truth, I would only ever have considered tackling it with the Matrix - with Duffel Coat, the one who would have interested me most.
It’s a race I’m happy enough just to watch tho…

The 1:45 should be won by either Klassical Dream or Flooring Porter - but the betting tells you that.
Neither are completely reliable - so an argument could be made for taking them on - but it would be more in hope than expectation.
Ronald Pump is the most interesting alternative - provided he’s recovered from a disappointing recent run at Ascot.
However, again, it’s a race I’m happy to just watch.

A Plus Tard really should win the 2:20.
On all known form, he’s well clear of his rivals. He’s also only 7 - and at the peak of his powers.
Again, he could only be opposed in hope, rather than expectation…
Janidil is the most interesting of his opponents - but he’s been picked up by Pricewise, so any chance of getting a bit of value on him, has now gone.

Galopin des Champs is the most likely winner of the 2:55 - but again, he’s a short priced favourite.
Blue Sari could be a threat provided he builds on his chasing debut.
However, it doesn’t help that both horses are trained by Willie Mullins.
I’m sure Willie plays things with a straight bat - but at very least, those associated with the stable will have a good feel for which horse is more likely to win (ability and fitness).
As a consequence, if we play in the race, we’ll be at a disadvantage…

Limerick

The 2:40 is by far the best race of the day, from a betting perspective - and I’m quite keen on Espanito Bello…
He looked a horse of huge potential, last season - and I’m sure he’s capable of winning a race such as this.
His trainer, Barry Connell, will have had loads of possible options for him - so I suspect he has been targeted at this race (which is quite valuable).
He should be better for a pipe opener over hurdles - and if I’ve read him right, he’s going to run a massive race.
In fairness, it is quite a competitive contest - and there are plenty of others who I would expect to be backed.
Dinny Lacey has been supported into favouritism - and is clearly thought capable of better than he’s shown; whilst Longhouse Poet has also remained strong in the market (but is held by Espanito, on last seasons form).
However, I see the biggest danger as Full Time Score.
He’s completely unexposed, so could literally be anything.
I think he’ll need to be very good to beat Espanito, but stranger things happen.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.


I was never going to get involved at either Catterick or Leicester - and the latter was abandoned early this morning due to incessant rain (which I can vouch for !)

Dec 28th - Preview for Leopardstown & Limerick

ITV will be showing day 3 of the Leopardstown Christmas festival tomorrow - which is fair enough.

However, to fill the gaps between the big races, they are also showing a couple of races from both Leicester and Catterick.
Without wishing to be disrespectful, they are scraping the barrel a bit - particularly at Catterick, where they will be showing class 4 and class 5 races !
I think it unlikely that I’ll be suggesting bets in either…

I may find a bet or two from Leopardstown - tho on initial inspection, I wasn’t overly taken by the shape of the main races.

In fact, the feature race at Limerick maybe more likely to yield a bet, so I’ve previewed that as well, just in case…


Leopardstown

1:10

I suspect that this will be a race best watched rather than played in - with a view to the final of the series…

Ardhil jumps out a bit - assuming he actually gets a run !
He bolted up at Ascot, 10 days ago, having been backed off the boards.
He will run off a mark 13lb higher tomorrow - but that may not stop him.
He’s a very hard one to assess - but based on his run at Ascot, the market is likely to provide a good pointer (assuming he does run).
Coltor is interesting for Dermot weld.
He is rated 90 on the flat - suggesting that he should have a few pounds in hand of his hurdles mark of 127.
He should be fit form the flat - tho the step up to 3 miles, is a step into the unknown.
Duffle Coat represents Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell.
He was a very useful juvenile last season - and his 5 length defeat of Adagio at Cheltenham a year ago, reads very well.
He too is unproven over 3 miles - but was staying on nicely over that trip on his seasonal return at Navan.
At bigger prices, Winter Fog looks quite interesting on his debut for Emmet Mullins.
He’s another who I would expect to see backed, if connections fancy him.
Whilst Tout est Permis should run well, off a mark a pound lower than he ran off when third in the series final, a couple of seasons back.

1:45

The first of 2 grade 1s on the card - this looks likely to go to one of the pair, that head the betting…
The trouble is, that whilst Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are both very talented animals on their day - neither one is particularly reliable…
Klassical Dream came out of the wilderness to bolt up in the stayers hurdle at last seasons Punchestown festival - and was backed to do so.
Prior to that run, he’d shown nothing for 2 years - but someone clearly knew that the fire was still burning.
If he can repeat that level of form tomorrow, he will probably win again - but it’s anyones guess as to whether he will…
Flooring Porter was a massive improver last season.
He took this race - and then the stayers championship at Cheltenham - before disappointing behind Klassical Dream at Punchestown.
He shouldn’t be judged solely on that run, which came at the end of a long season - but he also fell on his return at Navan, so now does have a few questions to answer.
The issue with him is that he’s a very headstrong horse, so the suspicion is that he will always be close to boiling over.
Away from the head of the market, there’s nothing that really stands out…
Abracadabras would be of interest, if he stays - but there is a doubt over that.
Whilst Ronald Pump would have been of interest, if he’d not run himself into the ground at Ascot, 10 days ago (but he did !).
If the ground is really soft, then I could see Sams Profile outrunning his odds - but whether he’ll be good enough to win, is a different matter…

2:20

It’s hard to look beyond A Plus Tard in this…
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - before finishing runner up in the Cheltenham Gold cup.
However, he arguably surpassed both of those efforts when taking the Betfair chase on his reappearance at Haydock.
He really did look outrageously good that day - and it’s no surprise to see him installed an odds on fav for this.
If he’s in the same form tomorrow, he will take all the beating - but they are not machines and he did only get home by half a length in this race 12 months ago.
In fact, jumping the last, he looked to have no chance of reeling in Kemboy.
And whilst he did manage to, there was very little between the pair.
The belief is that A Plus Tard has improved since then - but he will need to have done…
Like Kemboy, Delta Work is another who is at his best around Leopardstown.
He won this race 2 years ago, before unseating in last years renewal.
In truth, he showed very little last season - and not a great deal more, on his return at Down Royal.
That is a concern - tho Gordon Elliott will doubtless have him spot on for tomorrow.  
Galvin and Janidil are the 2 potential improvers in the line up.
The former lost little in defeat,when narrowly beaten by Frodon at Down Royal; whilst the latter ran a huge race when runner up to Allaho in the John Durkan and may well improve for a step up in trip tomorrow.

2:55

Galopin des Champs was a big improver over hurdles at the back end of last season - and assuming he takes to fences, will be very hard to beat in this.
Having won the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, he stepped up to take the grade 1 novice hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
If he’s close to that level on his chasing debut, then it will take a smart one to beat him.
Fury Road sets the standard for the race, based on his last time out third in the grade 1 Drinmore chase.
He looked likely to win that day, on the run to the last - but his stamina gave out on him, close home.
He will be wearing first time cheek pieces tomorrow - but I can’t see that really helping (as they are likely to make him keener).
As a consequence, Blue Sari may prove to be Galopin Des Champs biggest rival.
His career seemed to be going nowhere, but he bounced back last time on his chasing debut, when running Farouk D’alene close.
If he can build on that, then he could easily give the favourite something to think about…

Limerick

2:40

This is quite a valuable handicap - and it doesn’t look a hugely competitive field…

Top weight Longhouse Poet, is the obvious start point.
He beat Run Wild Fred and The Big Dog, on his most recent start - tho that was just under a year ago - and the placed horses have subsequently franked the form in no uncertain terms.
Obviously there is a slight question mark over Longhouse Poets fitness - but if he’s ready to do himself justice, then he will be hard to beat.
Ten Ten has a big chance, based on his narrow defeat at Punchestown in the spring.
He threatened to win a big pot for most of last season - and was very unlucky not to do so, when just inched out by Brahma Bull.
However, he got a 4lb rating rise for that run - and will be making his seasonal debut tomorrow (so fitness has to be taken on trust).
Full Time Score has run only twice previously over fences, so is nearly impossible to assess.
He was impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Gowran in March - but then disappointed badly at Limerick a fortnight later.
He really could be anything…
Rebel Gold was still in with a chance when falling last time at Gowran.
Provided that’s left no ill effects, he should run well.
Whilst Espanito Bello is closely tied with Coko Beach on a couple of runs from last season - and that gives him every chance in a race like this.
Provided he has come on for his seasonal debut run over hurdles at Navan, then he’s another who could go close.

Leicester

The Leicester races really don’t warrant extensive previews (and they are better than the Catterick ones !).
I’m unfamiliar with many of the runners, and there isn’t time for me to work through the form and watch videos of all their recent runs.
As a consequence, I’ll limit myself to a few comments on each race…

2:45

It’s interesting that the ground is ‘good’ on the chase course at Leicester - but ‘heavy’ on the hurdle course !

Kilbrook strikes me as just about the most likely race winner, on the back of a successful chasing debut at Carlisle.
He was raised 4lb for that win - but could well be capable of further improvement.
Ahead of the Field is the most obvious alternative: tho the ex. French Red Happy, could be anything (and has been subject to early support)

3:20

Lebowski is the obvious one on his handicap debut, following 2 wins in novice races.
An opening mark of 127 doesn’t look overly harsh - though it remains to be seen how he will cope with very heavy ground.
Jante Law is similarly unexposed - but also unproven on heavy.
Natural History has become a very disappointing animal.
He really should be capable of winning a race such as this, off his current mark - but that’s been the case on his last 2 runs (and he’s shown very little on both).
McGowans Pass is the solid option.
He will have no issue with the heavy ground - and should improve for his seasonal debut at Haydock.
He looks almost certain to run his race - but is vulnerable to an improver (such as Lebowski or Jante Law)


Catterick

1:25

Whilst this isn’t a bad race for a class 5 contest, it’s not one that I’ll be prepared to suggest bets in (I can only imagine how fragile the early market will be !)

Representing Bob looks the right favourite.
He’s unbeaten in 2 chase starts - and also ran well last time, when runner up over hurdles.
His mark is edging up - but he started off in the basement - and as he’s still only 5, he remains open to plenty of improvement.
Of the more exposed runners, then No Cruise Yet looks the best.
He would have gone close on his penultimate outing, if he’d not fallen - but made amends last time, when winning at Sedgefield.
He’s 6lb higher tomorrow, but appears to be on an upward curve, so may be capable of defying his new mark.

2:00

Findthetime is the obvious one, stepping into handicap company off a fair looking mark. However, he has been well found in the early market…
Happy and Fine is of more interest, at a price.
He ran well on his UK debut in November, before disappointing last time, when pitched into handicap company.
However, that was probably a stronger race than tomorrows - whilst he may also benefit from being stepped up in trip.
Clearly, he comes with risks - but they are factored into the early price.

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Chepstow

1:05
Zambezi Fix 0.5pt win 15/2

2:50
Ramses de Teille  0.25pt EW 25/1 (ie. 0.25pt win & 0.25pt place)

Kempton

1:55
Tequila Blaze 0.5pt win 9/2

Leopardstown

1:10
Sizing Pottsie 0.5pt win 5/1

2:55
Alfa Mix 0.5pt win 8/1

Matrix bets

Kempton

3:10
Cap du Nord 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 6

Chepstow

2:10
Flashjack  2 units win CEP 9.6 FP 9

2:50
Iwilldoit 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 10
Discordantly 1 unit win CEP 30 FP 21
The Big Dog 1 unit win CEP 12.5  FP 11

Leopardstown

2:55
The Bosses Nephew 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 8
Noble Yeats 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 9
Augusta Gold  1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15
Birchdale 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 34

There’s some good racing today - arguably better than yesterdays.

Certainly it was easier for me to find potential bets - tho getting ‘fair’ prices was as tricky as ever !

The bookmakers are very defensive in the morning - whilst the liquidity on the exchanges, is limited.
Still, it’s the world we have to operate in…

I’ve ended up with 6 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix - so a very busy day !

Here's my thinking...

Kempton

Edwardstone should win the 1:20 - with either Do Your Job or Solo, following him home.
However, I can’t see a betting angle…

Tequila Blaze strikes me as the most likely winner of the 1:55 - but I could see no margin in a price of 5/2, yesterday evening.
However, she’s a big drifter this morning - and at twice that price (in places), she is definitely worth a risk.
She won comfortably at Ascot last time - and even at the revised weights, I would expect her to confirm the form, with the 5 who finished behind her.
Emmpressive Lady looks the main danger - but she’s been backed into favouritism…

Shishkin should win the 2:30 - but if he’s not close to his peak, Greaneteen is more than capable of taking advantage.
The other 2 aren’t in the same class - tho I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sky Pirate run better than his odds imply.

I think it is worth taking a risk on Real Steel in the 3:10.
There is no doubt that he is handicapped to win - the question is how much of the old ability remains…
The suggestion at Ascot last time, was that sufficient does, to take a race of this nature.
Cap Du Nord is the obvious danger - and he is worth saving stakes on - however, Real Steel is the best bet in the race.


Chepstow

I like Zambezi Fix in the 1:05.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las, when he looked sure to win - but fell at the third last.
He also ran really well last time, when runner up over hurdles at Sandown.
When you’re Ready is the obvious danger - but he’s just too short in the betting.
I had planned to cover Duc de Beauchene for the Matrix - but he was pulled out, moments after I issued.
He looked a definite danger to Zambezi, so you should be pleased to accept the R4 on him not running !

I had planned to take a risk on Saint Segal in the 1:40 - but his price has gone too short…
He was 9/1 last night - but 11/2 now.
In truth, it’s not an easy race to get a handle on - but I felt he had a chance.
However, it would have been a ‘value’ call - and that value no longer exists…

The 2:10 looks just a bit too trappy…
I could make a case for both Kateson and Al Dancer - but I’m aware that there is a big question mark over each of them.
Flashjack could be the one - in conditions he should love.
However, he’s nearly 11, so probably not as good as he was.
He’s worth covering on the Matrix.

I think that Ramses de Teille will run a huge in the Welsh National (2:50)
He was runner up in the race 3 years ago - and whilst he disappointed in it last year, that was on the back of a very hard race at Cheltenham.
He’s had a much better preparation this time - and fitting of first time cheek pieces signals intent.
I’m conscious that there might be one or two progressive ones who could be a bit better than him, but I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go close.
If you are limited to the exchanges, you can back in the place market and should be able to get 5/1 for 4 places.
In addition to him, I’ve covered a few of the dangers in the Matrix.
Iwilldoit (tho his price has gone very short); the Big Dog and Discordantly.
All 3 have a chance of winning (or blowing out completely !)

Leopardstown

Chacun Pour Soi has be taken out of the 1:10 - meaning that Envoi Allen now only faces 2 rivals…
That actually makes it a better betting race - and Sizing Pottsie has becomes very interesting (as the sole 2 miler in the race).
A price of 5/1 is generous - and he’s worth a risk against 2 rivals, who would both be better over a longer trip.

I like Largey Debut best in the 1:45 - but there is some guesswork involved and therefore a price of 9/4, makes minimal appeal.
He could be top class - but if he’s not then Mighty Potter has enough talent to beat him.
Three Stripe Life also makes a bit of appeal, so on balance, it’s a race best watched.

The 3 horses of main interest, head the betting for the 2:20 - but I thought they would be shorter than there are.
Maybe that means I’ve not quite read things right..!
I like Sea Ducor best, as his hurdle form suggests he could have 10lb in hand of his mark.
However, he disappointed at the Curragh in June - so there is a question mark over him.
I was quite tempted to have a small play on him for the Matrix - but I’ve resisted and will just watch instead…

As with the previous race, I think the right 3 horses are at the head of the betting for the 2:55 - even if I thought they would be shorter prices…
I like Alpha Mix best, as he looked to have been trained with this race in mind (and JP McManus tends to target the race).
He’s the best bet.
However, The Bosses Nephew and Noble Yeats both look big dangers and are worth covering for the Matrix.
Of the outsiders, Birchdale and Augusta Gold are also worth covering.

Dec 27th - Preview for Kempton, Chepstow & Leopardstown

 Whilst there might not be as many meetings tomorrow (just the 5 !) - the quality is comparable with today - and the opportunity for bets, looks greater…

Kempton and Chepstow provide the main action in the UK; with Leopardstown the prime meeting in Ireland.

There are big races at all 3 venues - and I’ve preview most of them (to some degree, at least !)

Following todays racing, I’ve at least got a better feel for how the ground will be riding at both Kempton and Leopardstown - whilst it’s always soft (or heavy !) at Chepstow…

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…


Kempton

1:20

Even under a 5lb penalty, its hard to look beyond Edwardstone in this.
He was really impressive last time, when hacking up in the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and if he’s in similar form tomorrow, he will win.
In terms of pure ability, I think that Do your Job is the second best horse in the race - however, I’m not sure that the tight Kempton track will really suit him.
As a consequence, it may be Solo who chases home Edwardstone - but probably at a respectful distance…

1:55

There is likely to be a lot of pace in this race, as Bourbon Beauty and Go Millie Go, are both confirmed front runners.
Most of the other runners also like to race prominently, with the possible exception of Empressive Lady.
As a consequence, the race could be run to favour her - and as she’s also quite well handicapped, she warrants serious consideration…
5 of the 7 runners clashed last time at Ascot - with Tequila Blaze coming out on top.
She was over 4 lengths clear of all her rivals that day - and a 5lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh (particularly as she will be ridden by a 3lb claimer tomorrow).
It’s not obvious why any of those behind her should reverse the form tomorrow - so her biggest danger may well turn out to be Empressive Lady…

2:30

Another 4 horse race - and this one sees the seasonal reappearance of Shishkin.
Unbeaten in his last 8 starts, he won 5 novice chases last season - including the Arkle and the grade 1 Maghull novice chase at Aintree.
The expectation is that he’ll become the top 2 mile chaser in training this season - and tomorrow should give us a good idea of whether that is going to happen.
His main rival is Greaneteen, who was a slightly surprising winner of the Tingle Creek on his most recent outing.
There was certainly no fluke about his win that day - tho with Chacun Pour Soi performing below form, there are questions over the merit of the form.
He will have to concede 3lb to Shishkin tomorrow - and even with race fitness on his side, if Shishkin is top class, he won’t be able to do that…
Sky Pirate and Before Midnight complete the line-up - but they are really making up the numbers.
That said, it’s a bonus that Before Midnight is running, as he is a natural front runner and should therefore ensure there is an honest pace to the race.

3:10

From a betting perspective, this is by far the best race on the Kempton card…

Cap du Nord will take a bit of beating if he’s in the same form he was in 12 months ago, when he finished runner up to Royal Pagaille in this race.
He faced an impossible task that day - but finished 20 lengths clear of the third horse.
He’s back down to the same mark tomorrow - so does appear the one to beat.
Canelo is another who is back down in the ratings - to the mark off which, he won last seasons Rowland Meyrick.
He beat Snow Leopardess in that race - and she has really franked that form this season.
By contrast, Canelo has been a little disappointing - but if the first time visor perks him up, he should go very close.
Real Steal is yet another potentially well handicapped horse.
He ran in last years King George - and ran a fair race until he bled.
His 3 subsequent outings have been a little underwhelming - but he’s dropped 18lb in the handicap as a consequence.
If Paul Nicholls has him right tomorrow, he could be a danger to them all.


Chepstow

1:05

When you’re Ready heads the early market for this, on the back of a comfortable win last time, over course and distance.
He’s been raised 7lb for his efforts - but that doesn’t seem unreasonable.
Not only did he win well, he also retains plenty of scope for improvement.
He looks the one to beat…
Zambezi Fix and Duc de beauchene are closely matched on March form, over course and distance.
Duc de Beauchene got the better of their battle that day - but only by a nose.
He’s 2lb better off tomorrow - but Zambezi Fix has run some good races in the interim and as a 6 year old, should have the greater scope for improvement.

1:40

For a grade 1, this looks to be a weak race.
Obviously, it’s hard to tell with juvenile hurdles - but certainly, it contains no horses with big reputations…

Porticello sets the race standard.
He won on his UK debut at Wetherby - and finished runner up on a grade 2 at Doncaster on his most recent start.
That’s fair form - but it shouldn’t be an insurmountable standard.
Forever Blessed is edging him for favouritism.
He’s unbeaten in 2 starts - most recently, when romping home at Sandown.
It’s nearly impossible to quantify his form and he really could be anything.
Half cases can be made for most of the others, with Saint Segal possibly looking the most interesting.
He won on his racecourse debut at Bangor - and comes from a stable (Jane Williams) whose horses tend to improve for an outing…

2:10

I could be quite keen on Kateson in this - if it weren’t for the fact that he doesn’t appear to stay 3 miles !
He’s tried the trip 3 times and disappointed on each occasion - maybe tomorrow will be different…
He’s certainly got good course form: and he’s attractively handicapped - so if Tom Scudamore can eke out a bit of extra stamina, then he could take a bit of beating.
His case may be helped by the fact that there is no obvious front runner in the field (aside from him !).
It’s easy enough to pick holes in the form of most of the others:
Take your time is the obvious alternative, chasing a hat-trick.
However, he wasn’t massively impressive last time and will need to defy a 5lb higher mark tomorrow.
Al Dancer could potentially be a lot better than his rivals - though he has a welter burden to carry.
The booking of a 7lb claimer will help - though even with that, he’ll still have to carry 12st for 3 miles in the Chepstow mud - which is no small ask !

2:50

This is a particularly strong renewal of the Welsh National - and sifting through the 20 runners, is quite a task.
In theory, it should be helped by the fact that native River is running, as his presence means that almost half the field are out of the handicap.
However, in reality, it doesn’t help a great deal…!

Secret Reprieve has to be the first one on the short list.
He won the race 12 months ago - and must have every chance of following up tomorrow off a mark just 6lb higher.
It’s far from ideal that he’s not run since - but there can be little doubting that he’s a potentially well handicapped horse, who will be perfectly suited by the test.
Irish raider, The Big Dog, is the next one on the list.
He was subject to a massive plunge when winning at Punchestown in February - and whilst he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped, he’s almost certainly better than he’s shown so far.
Iwilldoit was hugely impressive when winning the trial for this race, 3 weeks ago.
He’d shown little over fences prior to that race, but jumped from fence to fence and won with any amount in hand.
Hill Sixteen is another one who put in a massive effort last time, when chasing home Snow Leopardess at Aintree.
He looks to have stamina to burn, so the step up in trip tomorrow, is likely to play right into his hands.
Of those at bigger prices, then Ramses de Teille is perhaps the most interesting.
He was runner up in this race 3 years ago, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He’s a very consistent horse and it’s hard to see him not running his race.
Discordantly is quite interesting for Jessica Harrington.
He’s been targeted at the race and ran well on his comeback in the Troytown.
His stamina is unproven - but if he does stay, then he should be in the mix.
Evas Oscar also needs to prove his stamina - but he’s a young chaser, who could easily improve sufficiently to take a hand at the finish.
Mac Tottie is the final one for the short(ish) list.
He was a good winner of the Grand Sefton on his penultimate start, before falling last time in the Becher chase.
He seems to have been dismissed on the back of that - but that seems a little premature.

There are at least 3 or 4 others, who can be given half chances - but I’ll leave it there and try to whittle things down to a manageable level tomorrow !


Leopardstown

1:10

Another 4 runner race - and it’s hard to see past Chacu Pour Soi…
He was a massive disappointment last time in the Tingle Creek at Sandown - but the hope has to be that his poor run was either down to the travelling or the undulating track.
He’s won 3 times at Leopardstown - including when taking this race 12 months ago - so there really will be no excuses for him tomorrow.
It also helps, that his main rival , Envoi Allen, isn’t proven as a 2 mile chaser.
All of his chase starts have been over further - so this really is an experiment.
In fairness, it’s worth a chance, as the horse is in danger of becoming disappointing.
Having looked a world beater, he has now lost 3 of his last 4 starts.
I suspect he will get an aggressive ride tomorrow - but whether he will be able to withstand Chacun Pour Soi, is a different matter.
Sizing Pottsie appeals most of the 2 outsiders - but he really shouldn’t be good enough to beat a peak form Chacun…

1:45

Largy Debut was impressive when beating Kilcrut on his hurdling debut at Cork, earlier this month.
The runner up was arguably the best bumper horse around last season and was sent off at 1/14 to make a successful hurdling debut.
However, he proved no match for Largy Debut - and there didn’t look to be any fluke about the result.
Ofcourse there could have been ! - and we’ll find out more tomorrow - but as things stand, Largy Debut appears the one to beat in this.
It’s not easy, choosing between his rivals.
The mare, Grangee, could prove the most dangerous, on the back of a successful hurdling debut at Fairyhouse.
That said, Three Stripe Life finished ahead of her in the Champion bumper at Cheltenham - and he also won on his hurling debut at the same track.
Mighty Potter has arguably got the best hurdling form - courtesy of his last time out third in the grade 1 Royal Bond.
He looked a bit unlucky that day - and if that was the case, then he could prove tough to beat…

2:20

This looks a bit of a minefield, so I’ve not spent too long trying to solve it.
That said, there are a few that catch my eye - and may warrant further investigation…

The first is Crowns Major, on his handicap debut.
He runs off a mark of 128 - but a rating of 97 on the flat suggests he could have at least 10lb in hand.
He’s also in the hands of a very shrewd trainer…
Get my Drift looks to be the main one for JP Mcmanus (Mark Walsh is on board).
Again, he’s a handicap débutante, who could have plenty in hand of his opening mark.
Sea Ducor is interesting for Author Moore.
His second to Master McShee, a year ago, reads particularly well, in light of that one winning a grade 1 chase today.
Whilst Patience Patience interests me most of the outsiders, on the back of a pipe opener at Dundalk, 122 days ago.
He likes to race prominently, so at very least could prove a decent IR play.

2:55

Just when I thought it couldn’t get any tougher !
The Paddy Power chase is the most valuable handicap run over the Christmas period - and horses tend to get layed out for the race…

Alfa Mix is the obvious place to start.
He’s owned by JP Mcmanus - and he tends to target one at this contest.
And that one could easily be Alpha Mix - as he has run eye catching races on both starts this season.
First time cheek pieces are applied tomorrow - and if they bring about any improvement, he’ll be hard to beat.
The Bosses Oscar also wear first time cheek pieces - and has a similar profile.
He’s only run 3 times over fences - but shaped quite well on each occasion.
He steps up in trip tomorrow - and for a horse who was runner up in last seasons Pertemps final, that should prove to be a good move.
He’s now also competing off an 8lb lower mark (accepting that UK & Irish marks aren’t the same), so could also be well handicapped.
Noble Yeats is the third one of significant interest.
He too has only run 3 times over fences - and hasn’t appeared the most natural fencer.
It’s therefore very interesting that supreme horseman, Derek O Connor, has been booked for the ride.
Outside those 3, it’s not as easy to find one to latch on to…
I was really impressed by the jumping of Coko Beach last time, when he failed to stay an extended trip.
Back down to 3 miles tomorrow - and with a 7lb claimer in the saddle, I could certainly see him running well.
Augusta Gold is quite interesting, for Willie Mullins.
She’s only run twice for him previously - and disappointed on both occasions. However, it’s likely to be just a matter of time before Willie finds the key…
Whilst Birchdale looks the most interesting of the outsiders.
He was rated 145 when with Nicky Henderson - but has rapidly crashed down to a mark of 129.
Enda Bolger has been running him over the wrong trip - but steps him up tomorrow and adds cheek pieces. Interesting…

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Leopardstown

2:55
Defan 0.5pt win 8/1

Matrix bets

Kempton

1:20
Jacamar 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 13

2:30
Not so Sleepy 2 units win CEP 5.4 FP 5

Wetherby

2:10
Empire Steel 2 units win CEP 6.8 FP 6.6
Takingrisks 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 26

Leopardstown

2:20
Coeur Sublime 1 unit win CEP 17 FP 13

2:55
Take All 2 units win CEP 6.4 FP 7

It honestly felt as if everything that could do, was conspiring against me this morning !

For a start, the days main card at Kempton is poor, from a betting perspective.

Then the weather intervened, and I’m really struggling to get a handle on how the ground will be riding at Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.

I had earmarked 4 possible Best bets - but 2 of them were declared NRs, just after 9:00 - whilst the uncertainty over the ground has ruled out another.

So then there was one...

Here’s a bit more detail behind my thinking, on what’s already been a challenging day (and the racing hasn’t yet started yet !)


Kempton

The 1:20 is one of the few races on the day, where I might have been able to find a bet. However, nothing particularly grabs me…
I think I like Danny Kirwan best - but I’m not prepared to take a risk at 7/2.
Of the outsiders, Jacamar is the one that interests me most - and he warrants a tiny play for the Matrix, at the likely price…

I prefer Bravemansgame to Ahoy Senor in the 1:55 - because I think his superior jumping could prove decisive.
However, I’m not in the habit of tipping even money shots - and I don’t plant to start today !

I do think that Not so Sleepy could be a good bet in the 2:30 - provided the ground is soft (or worse).
He can currently be backed at 7/2 - and that would be quite acceptable, in the right conditions.
I can see him getting the run of the race - and on form, he has a very good chance.
I’ll cover him in the Matrix and have another look for the Live thread - as by then, I should have a much better feel for the state of the ground.

It’s possible to turn the King George (3:05) round and round, and get a different answer each time…
All of the main players can be given a chance - but equally, none of them are bomb proof.
I just about favour Clan des Obeaux - though I would prefer it if he’d had a prep run.
There is a chance that Chantry House might improve past him - but that’s more than factored into his price.
None of the outsiders grab me sufficiently to even warrant a play on the Matrix.
It’s therefore a watching race…

Wetherby

I wanted to side with Debece in the 2:10 - but he was declared a NR this morning (apparently he’s pulled a muscle).
In his absence, I think Empire Steel is just about the most likely race winner - and he won’t mind if the ground is very soft.
He’s worth a couple of units for the Matrix: whilst Takingrisks is also worth a tiny play.
He may be in decline - but is running off a mark that he can win from and the switch to blinkers is an interesting move.

Leopardstown

Whilst the betting suggests that the 2:20 is a match between Ferny Hollow and Riviere D’etel, I think Coeur Sublime is worth a small play for the Matrix.
He could have beaten Ferny Hollow last time, with a more judicious ride - and whilst the general expectation is that Ferny Hollow will show the greater improvement, that might not happen.
Ofcourse, Coeur Sublime will still need to master Riviere D’etel, but there is sufficient in his price to warrant a small risk.

The 2:55 looks a tricky contest - but I’m drawn to Defan…
I liked his attitude when he beat Zarkareva at Listowel - and whilst that one should in theory, reverse the form at todays revised weights, she won’t appreciate soft ground.
With only 3 runs over fences, Defan also has plenty of scope for improvement…
There are lots of potential dangers, but I’m most fearful of Take All, and he warrants covering for the Matrix.  

Limerick

I had planned to make Lifetime Ambition a Best bet in the 2:40 - but he was declared a NR, just after 9:00.
Arguably, he would have had his work cut out to beat Gabynako, based on their runs last time in the Drinmore.
However, I suspect we would have seen a much better effort from Lifetime Ambition today.
Alas, we’ll never know !
In his absence, this looks a 2 horse race.
I’d slightly prefer Gabynako to Farouk D’alene - but not sufficiently to consider getting involved.

Dec 26th - Preview for Kempton, Wetherby, Leopardstown & Limerick

There are a plethora of meetings scheduled for tomorrow - but with my remit of focusing on ‘big’ races, I’ll be concentrating on Kempton, Wetherby, Leopardstown and Limerick.

There are big races (or at least, a big race) being run at each of the venues - though in truth, a lot of the fields are a bit disappointing (numerically speaking).

There is also significant doubts concerning the weather.

Rain is forecast in most places - with some snow forecast at Wetherby.
The state of the ground, is therefore going to require a bit of guesswork…

As a consequence, I doubt there will be many suggested bets tomorrow - but with a long week ahead of us, I’m not unduly worried about that.

Here are my thoughts on the main races of the day…



Kempton

1:20

8 should be going to post for this novice handicap chase - and it looks a tight contest…

Nicky Henderson appears to hold the aces, courtesy of Bothwell Bridge and Mister Coffeey.
Nico de Boinville has chosen to ride the former - suggesting he’s the one to beat (and explaining why he is the early favourite).
He showed promise in novice hurdles last season - but appeared to improve for fences on his seasonal debut at Sandown, where he was a comfortable winner.
A 5lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh - and he appears to set the race standard.
Master Coffeey was very highly regarded last season, when he was running over hurdles - but things didn’t quite drop right for him.
It was a similar story on his chasing debut at Newbury, where despite being sent off 5/4 fav, he could only finish third (of five).
He may well have needed the run that day - and I’d expect better tomorrow.
However, that was the fourth consecutive race, where he had run below market expectations - and you can only make excuses for so long…
Danny Kirwan appears to be the third major player in the race - for Paul Nichols.
He ran well on his chasing debut at Cheltenham in October - and I would expect him to improve for that experience.
As a PTP winner, he’s always looked the sort who will be best suited to fences.
All of the outsiders can be given some kind of chance - with Your Darling, perhaps the most interesting…
He looked a horse going places, when he won at Huntingdon in October - but then disappointed in a hotter race at Aintree, on his only subsequent start.
Whilst Jacamar is another who can’t be dismissed - in first time cheek pieces.
He is talented, but tends to race quite lazily.
If the head gear has the desired effect, then he could easily play a part.

1:55

Numerically, there’s a disappointing turnout for the Kauto Star novice chase, with just 4 runners - and realistically, it looks a 2 horse race.

However, on the flip side, the 2 runners of significance are probably the 2 best staying novice chasers in the UK - and provided they both jump round without mishap, it should be a very informative race…

Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor are the 2 to focus on - and they clashed over hurdles at Aintree, in the spring.
Despite being sent off at 66/1 and 13/8 fav respectively, Ahoy Senor beat the Bravemansgame by 7 lengths - and there appeared to be absolutely no fluke about the result.
Maybe the only caveat, was that it came at the end of a hard season for Bravemansgame (so he may have been slightly past his peak); whilst Ahoy Senor, was having just his third outing of the season - and only his second over hurdles.
This season, both have switched to chasing - and made a really big impact.
Ahoy Senor unseated on his chasing debut at Carlisle - but that was late on, in a listed chase against experienced rivals.
He still ran a huge race - and it was no surprise to see him dot up next time, in a grade 2 novice event at Newbury.
Bravemansgame is unbeaten in his 2 chases - both against more experienced rivals.
He was hugely impressive first time at Newton Abbot - and almost equally so, in his subsequent race at Haydock.
A real feature both times, was his pin point accurate jumping - and that could be a crucial weapon around Kempton.
Ahoy Senor hasn’t looked quite so foot sure - and that might prove to be the difference between the pair.
On the flip side, it they both jump soundly, then I suspect that Ahoy Senor has more stamina - and possibly, more talent…
The other 2 runners (Tea Clipper and Kiltealy Briggs), are fair performers - but the suspicion is that they simply aren’t in the same class as Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame.

2:30

There’s a disappointing turn out for the Christmas hurdle - with just 5 runners.

Epatante and Not So Sleepy look the 2 to focus on - but the betting tells us that.
However, whether the betting has got the respective odds right, is a different matter…
The pair clashed recently, in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle - and at the end of 2 miles, the judge couldn’t separate them.
It can be argued that Epatante should have come on more for that race (her first since the spring) - and she will appreciate the easier Kempton track.
However, if the rain comes, then that will suit Not so Sleepy - whilst he’s also likely to get an uncontested lead…
They are currently priced up at around even money and 3/1 - however, I feel it should be more like 6/4 and 2/1.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that either Tritonic or Soaring Glory, could spring a surprise.
Both have won good quality handicaps - and are stepping into grade 1 company.
Clearly they will need to up their games if they are to have any chance of winning - but that’s far from impossible.
That said, Soaring Glory seemed unsuited by a small field last time: whilst Tritonic is only 4 - and it’s just a week since he collected the big pre-Christmas handicap at Ascot.
In short, the race should be won by one of the big 2, with Not so Sleepy currently representing a bit of value (even more so, if the rain comes).

3:05

This years King George, is an absolute cracker !

The standard is set by last years winner - Frodon.
His victory 12 months ago, was a big surprise - but he got an uncontested lead; jumped from fence to fence - and nothing was able to get past him.
He’s likely to get an uncontested lead again tomorrow - and his jumping is likely to again, be flawless - the question is simply, whether there is anything in the field that will be able to reel him in…
Clan des Obeaux couldn’t 12 months ago - but he’s been aimed at the race this time.
He’s already won it twice - and I’m sure he’ll be primed to regain his crown, tomorrow.
I’d feel slightly happier if Nicholls had managed to get a prep run into him.
That said, there is no one better at getting a horse ready to run for his life - and I suspect that Clan will be spot on.
Minella Indo could definitely be the fly in the ointment for Ditcheat.
He was a very impressive winner of the Gold cup in March - and whilst Frodon beat him at Down Royal in October, I doubt he was primed for that race.
I’d be slightly concerned that he might not be at his absolute peak tomorrow - but the fitting of first time blinkers certainly suggest intent.
I think he’s the best horse in the race - though is remains to be seen, how he copes with the test…
Chantry House and Asterion Forlonge represent last seasons novices - and there’s a real possibility that either one of them could be good enough to step up and take the prize.
Chantry House is the more consistent of the pair - and he had Asterion back in third, when taking last seasons Marsh chase.
However, there remains a feeling that Asterion hasn’t yet shown what he is really capable of - and stepping up to 3 miles might be the making of him (assuming the fences don’t intervene !).
The other 4 are all talented horses - but they really shouldn’t be good enough, up against some top notch rivals.

Wetherby

2:10

Of all the races being run tomorrow, this is potentially the most interesting, from a betting perspective.

Most of the 10 runners can be given a chance - and good cases can be made for at least half a dozen of them.

Silver Hallmark is the early favourite, which is understandable.
He’s only had 3 previous runs over fences - and his head defeat by Fiddlerontheroof, at Exeter last season, suggests he could be very well handicapped.
Even his fourth place, behind the same horse on his return at Carlisle, makes good reading - and there is every chance that he will improve for tomorrows step up in trip.
Empire of Steel, is the other unexposed potential big improver.
He’s had 5 previous runs over fences - and shown very good form on at least a couple of occasions.
He ran a nice race on his seasonal return at Haydock - and if he has improved for that, then he could well be in the mix, tomorrow.
Debece is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race, on his second run for Dan Skelton.
He should really have won on his stable debut at Sandown in March - but was too free and didn’t get home.
He was raised 5lb for that defeat - but still looks to have leeway off a new mark of 135.
Cloudy Glenn was the game winner of last months Ladbrokes trophy - but he was clearly primed for that race, so may struggle tomorrow off a 10lb higher mark.
The form of Windsor Avenues seasonal debut run at Bangor, has subsequently been well franked - most notably, by the winner, Snow Leopardess…  
There is little doubt than he ran very well that day - but a third placing in this race 12 months ago, off a 2lb higher mark, suggests he’s an unlikely winner (as tomorrows race looks a stronger renewal)
Top Ville Ben won this race in 2019 - and off a mark 4lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
He loves Wetherby - and if he gets his favoured soft ground, and an uncontested lead, he could prove tough to pass.
Whilst outsider, Taking Risks, can’t be dismissed, in first time blinkers.
He won the Sky bet chase at Doncaster in January - and whilst he has disappointed a few times since then, he is now on a pound lower mark - with the new head gear suggesting that connections will be going for it.

Leopardstown

There’s an interesting card to open up the 4 day Leopardstown meeting - but as at Kempton, potential betting opportunities look thin on the ground…

2:20

The grade 1 Racing Post novice chase is the high-light of the card - but the betting suggests it’s a 2 horse race…

Ferny Hollow has been installed a slight odds on favourite, on his second run over fences.
He won that race - and he won his only race, last season.
That was an innocuous looking novice hurdle at Gowran Park in November - when he got the better of Bob Olinger.
The latter then went unbeaten for the remainder of the season - and in winning the Ballymore hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, layed strong claims to being the best novice of the season.
Realistically, his only rival for that title, was Appreciate It - and he was beaten by Ferny Hollow in the Champion bumper at the 2019 Cheltenham festival.
To say that Ferny Hollows form is strong, is a bit of an under-statement !
Ofcourse, strong form in bumpers/over hurdles, in the past 2 years, is not the same as strong recent form over fences.
However, he won nicely on his chasing debut at Punchestown earlier this month - so there is reason to believe that all the ability remains.
However, if he is to conceded to 13lb to Riviere D’etel tomorrow, then it will need to !
She has been hugely impressive in racking up a hatrick in early season novice chases.
Her jumping has been pretty much flawless - and whilst she has doubtless benefited from both a juvenile allowance and a mares allowance - she will receive both again tomorrow.
On chasing form she sets the clear standard - and Ferny Hollow will need to be operating at close to the level he operated at, in bumpers/over hurdles, if he is to beat her.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, is Coeur Sublime.
He was runner up to Ferny Hollow in Punchestown race - when making both his chasing debut and debut for Henry De Bromhead.
He actually looked as if he might win that day, approaching the final fence - but Ferny Hollow ultimately proved too strong.
A lot will depend on which way yhe pair of them have gone since that run.
Coeur Sublime is a horse who has tended to run well fresh - so the expectation is that he won’t improve as much as Ferny Hollow.
However, that may not be the case…
It can certainly be argued that he represents a bit of value at the likely odds - at least to reverse the form with the winner…

2:55

This is the best race on the card from a betting perspective - even if it does look a bit of a minefield !

Henry de Bromhead saddles 4 - suggesting he is quite keen to win it !
Defan is probably the most interesting of the quartet.
He won at Listowel in September - and would have gone close to following up last time at Thurles - if he’d not tried to take the final fence with him !
Tiger Voice and Zarkareva are 2 of the other De Bromhead runners - and like the Peter Fahey trained Soviet Pimpernel, they are owned by Robcour.
All 3 have a definite chance - and again, the fact that the owners are so strongly represented in the race, makes you think they are particularly keen to secure the prize.
Willie Mullins relies on Fan de Blue - a second season novice, stepping down in trip.
His case isn’t compelling based on form - but you under-estimate Willie at your peril !
Similarly, Gordon Elliott relies on just the one runner - in Coach Carter.
He’s very inexperienced, with just 2 previous runs over fences.
His opening mark of 130 is a complete guess - and he really could be anything.
Take All is the final one of major interest.
He won at Wexford in October - and has been placed behind Riviere D’Etel in his 2 subsequent races.
Based on his 12 length second in his most recent race, an opening chase mark of 135 looks fair enough.

Limerick

2:40

This is the high-light of the Limerick card - and it’s a cracking little novice chase.

I’m a little surprised to see that Farouk D’Alene has been installed the early favourite…
He was a very decent novice hurdler last season (though his season was cut short) - and he won well on his chasing debut at Navan, earlier this month,
However, he is being priced up on potential - and a few of his rivals tomorrow, have undoubtedly achieved more…
Gabynako finished runner up in the Grade 1 Drinmore chase, on his most recent outing.
More than that, he was arguably unlucky not to win, as poor jumps at the final 2 fences, probably cost him victory.
He’d been immaculate when winning on his previous start at Fairyhouse - and if he gets into a rhythm tomorrow, he could prove hard to pass.
Lifetime Ambition was sent off favourite for the Drinmore on the back of an exemplary round of jumping, when winning at Down Royal.
He wasn’t as good at Fairyhouse - and it may have been that he resented not being able to lead.
With Gabynako again in the line up, it could be a similar story tomorrow - but if connections decide to adopt different tactics, he could be interesting.
Vanillier is the final one of interest.
He was a revelation when winning the Albert Bartlett at last years Cheltenham festival - but has been a little disappointing on his 2 chase starts this season.
He finished behind Lifetime Ambition on the first of them - and whilst he did win his most recent start, his caused was helped by 2 of his main rivals falling.
The other issue with him is the trip.
He will be tackling 2m4f tomorrow - but I think he will need 3 miles to be at his best.
Very soft ground will help - though I suspect he may still lack a bit of tactical speed when it’s needed.

Review of the day (Dec 18th)

 With limited suitable racing on Friday - and none on Sunday - it was a rare one day ‘weekend’.

And quite welcome too, with the Christmas excesses sat on the horizon !


Saturday

There were good cards at both Ascot and Haydock.
I was expecting the ground to be significantly softer at Haydock, than at Ascot - but I’m not convinced it was…

Getting reasonable early prices was a bit of a challenge - but I eventually ended up with 3 Best bets on the day, supported by quite a few for the Matrix.

The first one to run was Chti Balko at Haydock - and I was very keen on him.
In fact, I felt he was virtually an even money shot - so at 9/4, looked a very good bet.
However, that was on the assumption that the ground at Haydock would be borderline heavy - and I don’t think it was.
It looked to me that it was no worse than soft - and whilst he ran well, he was ultimately outspeeded by the ex. Flat horse, Green Book.

It was a disappointing start to the day, even if I still believe he was a good bet !

Knight in Dubai was the second Best bet to run, at Ascot - and whilst I didn’t fancy him quite as much as Chti Balko - there wasn’t a lot in it !
Again, I struggled to see him not running a huge race - it was just a question of whether he would be good enough to win…

In the early stages it was obvious that he was full of himself - and after 5 fences, he took up the running (which I doubt was the plan !).
He travelled beautifully to the home turn - but when pressure was applied, it soon became obvious that he had done a bit too much, too soon…
Diego de Charnil and Palmer Hill went past him - and he could only run at one pace, to claim a distant third.

I also covered Ornua for the Matrix, in case he managed to get an uncontested lead.
However, he was a big late drifter - and whilst he did lead very early, his chance was gone, once Knight in Dubai passed him…

Enqarde was the final Best bet of the day, back at Haydock - but I didn’t fancy him anywhere near as much as the other 2.
He was more of a value play against the favourite, Remastered - who I felt might be vulnerable, following a heavy fall last time.

Turning in, Remastered was matching strides with Calipso Collonges, with Enqarde back in third.
It soon became clear that Remastered was getting the better of his dual - the question was simply whether Enqarde could pick him up…

I felt that we’d been in the same position numerous times already this season - and the result had always been the same.
But not this time !
Enqarde challenged between the final 2 fences - jumped the last a couple of lengths clear - and galloped strongly to the line.

Hurray !

I’d covered Remastered for the Matrix - along with Acey Milan (who also ran quite well - but weakened late on).

So at last, a winning Best bet

There were a few other bets for the Matrix, at Ascot….

Ronald Pump was the first of them - but he ran too freely in the Long Walk and weakened up the home straight.
Champ was an impressive winner of the race - and deserves his place near the head of the betting for the Stayers hurdle.
I took Belami des Pictons and Annsam against the field in the Silver Cup.
I did briefly consider making Belami a Best bet - but had a niggling doubt (and the price wasn’t where I wanted !).
Ultimately, it was a good call to swerve him, as he didn’t get home.
It was also a good call to include Annsam, as he galloped on powerfully to withstand the challenge of Phoenix Way.
The final bets of the day were in the Betfair exchange hurdle - but simply, I had read the race wrong.
I went with No Ordinary Joe, Benson and Drop the Anchor - but the first named ran too freely and dropped away tamely in the home straight; whilst the latter 2 never featured.

Still, at least Enqarde won - along with Annsam - putting us in a much better place, for the start of the Christmas period.

Merry Christmas everyone

TVB. 

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Haydock

2:40
Enqarde 0.5pt win 11/1 (10/1 is acceptable)

11:50
Chti Balko 1pt win 5/2 (9/4 is acceptable)

Ascot
1:50
Knight in Dubai 0.5pt win 4/1 (don't take less than that)

Matrix bets

Ascot

1:50
Ornua 1 unit win CEP 32 FP 26

2:25
Ronald Pump 2 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5

3:00
Belami des Pictons 2 units win CEP 7.6 FP 7
Annsam 1 unit win CEP 10.5 FP 9

3:35
No Ordinary Joe 2 units win CEP 5.1 FP 5
Benson 2 units win CEP 17 FP 13
Drop the Anchor 1 unit win 23 FP 21

Haydock

2:20
Remastered 2 units win CEP 3.85 FP 4
Acey Milan 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15

I’m not sure why, but it was really hard to get ‘fair prices’ on this mornings Best bets...

The bookmaker odds were a significantly less than those available on the exchanges.
It’s something that tends to happen when I issue bets in the big handicaps - because the extra places that the bookies offer, result in reduced ‘win’ prices.
However, that wasn't the case with todays bets.

I waited in the hope that they might right themselves - but they didn’t.

Suffice to say, I would expect the Best bets to be available at greater than advise price, prior to the off (because they were available at greater than advised price, before I issued them !).

Anyway, it is what it is.
I figured the most important thing was to get us on the ‘right’ horses !

I’ve end up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus quite a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…


Ascot

I’m pretty keen on Knight in Dubai in the 1:50 - but unfortunately, so are plenty of others !
He looks primed to run a massive race - and is handicapped to win.
Most of his rivals have significant question marks over them, which I guess is why his price is shorter than I expected.
Ornua has question marks against him - but he is priced up accordingly.
He might get the run of the race - and could be well handicapped - he is therefore worth covering for the Matrix.

I like Ronald Pump best in the 2:25 - but he is beatable.
I’ll be amazed if he isn’t placed - and with Buzz in the race, he would have been a great EW bet (at around 5/1).
I still think he could win - and he’s definitely the most solid option in the race.
However, the price isn’t there to make him a Best bet - so I’ll just cover him in the Matrix…

I was tempted to make Belami des Pictons a Best bet in the 3:00 - but the price wouldn’t go where I wanted !
He was 7/1 on the exchanges - but 5/1 with the Bookmakers.
In fairness, he does come with risks. This will be his second run on the back of a long break - and I’ve got slight reservations about him over the trip.
I could see him drifting, close to the off - but he’s worth a risk at 6/1+
Annsam is also worth a risk.
Again the concern with him, is stamina - but the quick ground should help.
Both are worth covering in the Matrix…

I was tempted to deploy the full Matrix on the 3:35 - but I don’t think I’ve quite got a good enough handle on the race…
I think No Ordinary Joe is the most likely winner - but he’s a relatively short priced fav, so I’m just inclined to cover stakes on him.
I’ll also take a punt on 3 big priced runners: Benson, Drop the Anchor and Mack the Man.
Benson could win the race - if the visor has the desired effect !
The other 2 both have chances - and are over-priced at 20/1+
I’ve covered all 4 in a limited Matrix (accepting that half a dozen others in the race, also have a chance)

Haydock

I’ve gone off-piste in the Haydock opener (11:50) - because I really fancy Chti Balko !
I put him up as a Best bet in this very race 12 months ago - and he hacked up by 26 lengths !
Amazingly, he runs off a mark 6lb lower today - and has clearly been targeted at a repeat.
It’ll take a good one (in fact, a very good one !) to beat him - and the only one that looks capable is Green Book.
He’s been backed into favourtism - but I’m hoping that’s because he’s trained by Venetia and ridden by a 10lb claimer.
He might be too good for Chti Balko - but he’ll need to have a stone in hand of his mark - and handle conditions, if he’s going to beat him.
In my mind, 6/4 was a fair price on Chti Balko - so at 9/4, he’s a good bet.

I can’t see an angle in to the 2:05.
The 3 I like best, head the market - and I’d struggle to choose between them.
It may be a race where it’s worth waiting until close to the off and seeing if one of them drifts to a decent price (5/1).
Little Awkward is the most interesting of the outsiders - but I don’t like him enough to warrant getting involved.

Remastered is the obvious call in the 2:40 - provided he’s recovered from his crunching fall in the Ladbroke trophy.
With that doubt however, he can be no more than a saver…
The best bet in the race, is Enqarde.
He ran really well in a better race over the course in February - and should appreciate dropping back in trip today.
He also ran a nice race on his seasonal debut - which should have put him spot in for this.
3 or 4 others can be given half chances - with the most interesting of those, Acey Milan.
He looks over-priced at 16/1+ and is worth including in the Matrix.

Dec 18th - Preview for Ascot & Haydock

Ascot and Haydock host the main meetings tomorrow - with Newcastle and Navan, providing support.

They raced at Ascot this afternoon - and the ground looked just on the soft side of good (which is as it was described).
With no rain forecast, I’m expecting the same tomorrow…

I expect it to be much tougher going at Haydock, where the ground is described as somewhere between soft and heavy (with the chase course likely to ride the slower).

There are some decent races at both courses - and I don’t know why ITV are only showing 6 of them.
I’m sure they could have squeezed in another one or two from Haydock…

With televised opportunities limited, I may well cast the net a little wider - and look at some of the supporting races for bets.
However, I’ll just preview the main 6 races this evening.
If I do find any bets from the other races, I’ll explain the thinking in the bet/staking rationale email tomorrow…


Ascot

1:50

This race is run over the slightly unusual distance of 2m3f.
So a bit of a stretch fora 2 miler - but maybe not far enough for a 2 and a half miler !

Palmers Hill is the early favourite, on the back of a seasonal debut win at Wetherby.
He won that race well enough - and a 4lb rating rise isn’t overly harsh.
Furthermore, he has always been considered a good horse, so it’s no surprise to see him at the head of the market.
Whether Ascot will suit him as well as Wetherby, remains to be seen - as does his ability to jump cleanly in a more competitive race.
Guy ran well when finishing runner up in a similar race at the course, last month.
He’s been raised 3lb for that effort - but is still only 6 and his best days should still be ahead of him.
I’m not entirely convinced that he will be suited by a drop in trip - even if it is only a couple of furlongs.
That said, he couldn’t be dismissed from calculations…
Knight in Dubai ran a nice race at Aintree last time, on his comeback from 18 months off the course.
That race was over 2 miles - which is on the short side for him.
He steps up in trip tomorrow, to a much more suitable distance, and if he’s come on for that run (and not gone backwards), then he should be in the mix.
Sully Doc won over tomorrows course and distance, last October.
He beat Editeur du Gite that day - so the form looks very strong.
However, he has to run from a mark 19lb higher tomorrow.
He’s obviously improved in the interim - but whether he’s improved by 20lb, remains to be seen !
The other concern with him is that he’s not been declared in a tongue tie - or cheek pieces.
He’s worn the former on his last 10 starts - and the latter on his last 4 - so it’s a little odd…
Ornua is the final one worth a mention, on his second start for Georgie Howell.
Formerly trained by Henry de Bromhead - he’s only run once for his new stable, when unplaced over hurdles at Wetherby last month.
Presumably that was just to blow away the cobwebs - and he’s attractively handicapped, back over fences tomorrow, on a mark of 143.
Add into the mix that he could get an uncontested lead, and he certainly looks interesting…

2:25

It’s a great shame to see Buzz missing from the line up for the Long Walk…
Obviously I wish the horse well (he fractured a pelvis, earlier today) - but I was very keen to take him on.
Such is life.
With him out of the race, it doesn’t appear as easy to spot an angle…

Thyme Hill is justifiably favourite - having finished a narrow runner up in this race 12 months ago; and then winning the stayers hurdle at Aintree in the spring.
However, he didn’t do so well, when making his seasonal debut at Auteuil, last month
That seemed an odd race to run him in, first time out - and he disappointed.
It remains to be seen just how much the whole experience took out of him…
Ronald Pump is next in the betting - and he looks rock solid.
He finished runner up in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham, a couple of seasons ago - and has run consistently well since then.
Those runs have included twice finishing runner up to Honeysuckle - and I doubt many of his rivals tomorrow, would be able to do that !
He ran particularly well last time, when chasing home the super mare in the Hattons grace hurdle at Fairyhouse.
On that form, he looks the one to beat.
Champ is the potential fly in the ointment, on his return to hurdling.
He’s a supremely talented horse - but has only run 4 times in the last 2 years.
However, he did manage to beat Minella Indo and Allaho on one of those occasions - so there can be no denying, he’s from the top drawer.
How he’ll cope with 3 miles over hurdles on his seasonal debut tomorrow, is anyones guess tho…
It’s a bit harder to make a case for the other 5 - assuming that Paisley Park is actually in decline (which does seem to be the case).
He won this race 12 months ago (when narrowly beating Thyme Hill) - but looked a shade fortunate to win that day - and his form has gone downhill since.
Various things have been tried - and he runs in a tongue tie for the first time, tomorrow. However, in all probability, he simply isn’t the horse he once was…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the enigmatic Thomas Darby run well again - and he could easily get placed; whilst On the Blind Side can also be given a chance…
He finished runner up to Thomas Darby at Newbury last time - but was conceding weight and race fitness that day.
Off level weights and with that run under his belt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds.

3:00

Belami des Pictons is the logical place to start in this, following his fine comeback run, when fourth to Snow Leopardess at Bangor.
That race is turning out to be quite hot - and it was Belamis first run in 600 days.
Despite that, he travelled really well to the home turn, before running out of steam.
It will all depend on whether he has come on for that run - or gone backwards.
If he’s come on, then he will take a lot of beating tomorrow - however, if he ‘bounces’ (after such a big effort on the back of a long break), he’s more likely to be pulled up…
Grand Sancy showed improved form last time, when stepped up to 2m6f.
He is stepped up in trip again tomorrow - and if that brings about similar improvement, he will go very close.
Certainly, from a handicapping perspective, he has a good chance - and as he’s still only 7, he may still be improving.
Caribean Boy and Annsam, are 2 others who are being stepped up in trip.
It’s hard to know whether either will improve for it - but if they do, then a case can be made for them both.
One thing’s for sure, with Cloth Cap in the field, it’s likely they will need to stay.
He ran really well last time in the Ladbroke Trophy - attempting to make all, but weakening out of things up the straight.
I’m sure he’ll go from the front again tomorrow - and will aim to exploit any stamina chinks in his rivals.
That will play into the hands of both Checkitout and Regal Encore.
They filled the places behind Larry in a similar race at the end of October.
Checkitout subsequently ran really well behind Snow Leopardess at Aintree - but that was just a fortnight ago, and the quick return is a worry.
Regal Encore has also run since, when well beaten at Warwick.
That’s less of a worry - and his course form, is outstanding.
The negative with him is that he will be 14 in a fortnights time - and few horses of that age, win races as competitive as this one…

3:35

This really is a ridiculously competitive race - and of the 14 runners, there are only 2 or 3, who I’d be inclined to leave out of calculations (and even then, I might be wrong !)

Coming up with a short list wouldn’t be easy - but it would have to include No Ordinary Joe.
He’s a novice - but ran a massive race, last time - on only his fourth run over hurdles - when third in the Greatwood.
I assume he’s been targeted at this race since then - and with that big race experience under his belt, off a mark just 3lb higher, he looks sure to go close.
In fact, I’d probably expect him to reverse the Greatwood form with the winner, West Cork.
He will be 7lb higher tomorrow - but more importantly, looked tuned to the minute that day.
I’ll be surprised if Dan Skelton manages to get much improvement out of him - in fact, he’s more likely to have gone backwards…
Tritonic also represents that form line - but as a 4 year old, I’d instinctively be against
him in a race of this nature.
Samarrive is also a 4 year old - though I might make an exception with him !
He bolted up last time at Sandown - and whilst he was given 11lb for his efforts, that didn’t appear overly harsh.
Of more concern, is the relatively quick turn around.
That race was only 14 days ago - and whilst he appeared to win it without taking much out of himself, looks can be deceptive…
Benson finished well behind Samarrive that day - and even on 13lb better terms, it would be quite hard fancying him to reverse the form.
However, Benson is an enigmatic sort - and the application of a visor is a very interesting move.
He arguably should have won this race 12 months ago - so off a 6lb lower mark tomorrow, should have every chance.
Ultimately I think it will come down to how he responds to the head gear (galvanised v sulks !).
Luttrell Lad would also feature on my short list - on his handicap debut.
It’s clear that Philips Hobbs considers him a good horse - and an opening mark of 135 looks fair.
It’s interesting that Pat Fahy brings over Pay the Ferryman.
He was a running on 7th in the Country hurdle in March, off exactly the same mark - and looks to have been targeted at this.
Whilst Mack the Man is the most interesting of those at really big prices.
He would have gone close in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury, a couple of seasons back - and runs tomorrow off the same mark.

Haydock

2:05

This looks quite a trappy race - but the right 3 horses have made their way to the head of the early market…

Mackelduff is the obvious favourite, following 2 big runs in handicaps this season.
He won the first of them, at Aintree, comfortably beating Pounding Poet.
The runner-up subsequently franked that form with a close second in a better race at the same track.
Mackelduff finished third on his most recent run this season - but that was in a hot handicap at Cheltenham.
I suspect that he will be well suited by tomorrows softer ground - and he sets a fair standard.
Stellar Magic is harder to assess - but could be very well handicapped.
He won his first 2 races last season - beating Alaphilippe in the second of them.
That one is now rated 141 - yet Stellar Magic runs off a mark of 133 tomorrow.
The worry with him is that he injured himself on his final run of last season - and tomorrow will be his first outing since then.
If he’s completely over the issue - and ready to do himself justice, then I suspect he will be hard to beat.
Up for Parol is the final one of major interest.
He ran really well to finished third in the grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle on his seasonal debut.
On the back of that, he was made a short priced favourite for a decent novice chase at Ffos Las - but he disappointed.
It’s interesting that he’s been immediately switched back to hurdles - and it’s hard to think that he’s not a bit better than an opening mark of 127.

Half cases can be made for a few of the others - but I’ll be a bit surprised if the race isn’t won by 1 of the 3 mentioned…

2:40

Remastered is clearly the one to beat in this.
He suffered a heavy fall last time out, in the Ladbroke Trophy when just about to take up the running.
It’s impossible to say whether he would have won that race - but he would have gone very close.
He races off the same mark tomorrow - so provided he’s fully recovered, he has to go very close, in what is a much weaker contest.
Away from him, the race isn’t easy to dissect…
Calipso Collonges probably sets the standard.
He won a lesser race on his most recent start - but has also been competitive off his current mark, in stronger races.
He looks sure to run well tomorrow - and would appear a good bet to place.
Whether he’ll be good enough to win however, remains to be seen.
Buzz de Turcoing is a potential improver.
He won very easily last time at Ayr, having previously run above expectations in a decent novice chase at Wetherby.
My only concern with him, is that he idled dreadfully last time - and he won’t want to be doing that tomorrow, against more resolute and talented opposition.
Enqard has a chance.
He ran a fair fourth over the course in February - and should appreciate tomorrows shorter trip.
He’s not shown much in his 2 starts since then - but there were excuses and he runs off a 4lb lower mark tomorrow.
Vintage Clouds should run well, in what will be ideal conditions.
The problem with him, is that he’s now 11 - and he’s still on a pretty high mark.
Acey Milan is the final one of interest.
He’s not badly handicapped - and has run well at Haydock in the past.
He should be better for a pipe-opener over hurdles - and will have no issue with the likely conditions.