Review of the weekend (Dec 10th-11th)

Cheltenhams 2 day International meeting dominated the weekend.

The ground on for both days was relatively quick (officially, good to soft) - yet despite that, the fields held up pretty well.

As a consequence, it looked to provide a good opportunity to really kick start the TVB season.


Friday

There were 7 decent races on the opening day - and in theory, I should have been able to find a bet in most of them.

However, very tight early markets meant that I was only able to issue 2 Best bets - and one of those was an alternative selection, because my original fancy for the race had been backed in too short…

Barbados Buck’s was the first of the Best bets - and I was pinning my hopes on him having been galvanised by a pair of blinkers.

The horse has plenty of ability - but he looked reluctant on his chasing debut, so the application of head gear seemed a logical move.

However, it was clear from quite early, that the blinkers weren’t having the desired effect.
Harry Cobden started niggling him, before half way - and soon after he was struggling.
He was eventually pulled up - and you do wonder what they can now do with him (probably send him to another stable !)

In the same race, I also covered J’ai Froid for the Matrix.
I wasn’t completely sure about him - but felt I may have judged him harshly, based only on his chasing debut (where he wasn’t fluent).

He ran a little better than Barbados Buck’s - but only a little !
His jumping was again hesitant - and it was clear from some way out that he wasn’t going to be winning.

A disappointing start to the day…

The only other Best bet was in the mares handicap chase.

My original intention was to go with Rose of Arcadia - despite the fact that she was a bit risky.
However, she was backed in way too short overnight - so I switched allegiance.

Fontaine Collonges and Precious Eleanor were the other 2 of interest in the race - and with the latter available at 3 times the price of the former, the bet was obvious.

And what a race Precious Eleanor ran !

She led from the start - and jumped from fence to fence.

Coming down the hill, it was clear that she was going to go very close - but then Vienna Court loomed up - and it became equally clear that Precious Eleanor was going to struggle to withstand her challenge !

And unfortunately that’s what happened: Vienna Court cruised past, like a horse with a stone in hand of her rating.

Precious Eleanor ran on gamely to take second - but was absolutely no match for the winner.

I also covered Dame de Soir for the Matrix - and whilst she ran OK, she never looked likely to win.

Issues with the early prices meant that there were a couple of others that I took a risk on for the Matrix (as opposed to making them Best bets), in the hope that their prices would drift.

The first was Jpr One in the opener.
He was 3/1 at 9:00 - but 9/2 at the off.
He travelled nicely through the race - and looked sure to win, when going a couple of lengths up, on the run in.
He touched 1.05 IR - but was run down late on by the more experienced Datsalrightgine - a tough start to the day.

Commodore was the other one.
He was 4/1 at 9:00 - but 7/1 at the off (and 8/1 a couple of mins prior to that).
Like Precious Eleanor, he jumped from fence to fence - but unlike Precious Eleanor, nothing every looked likely to beat him.

He put up a career best by some margin - and had obviously been trained for the day.
How he was sent off at 7/1, is a complete mystery…

Mengli Khan was a more speculative one for the Matrix.
He set out to try and make all - but a couple of bad mistakes scuppered his chances.
He looks a light of his former self.

In the final 2 races on the card: Diesel D’allier just got the better of Potters Corner in the cross country.
The runner up must be a serious contender for the Welsh National - especially if he gets his favoured soft ground.
Whilst in the long distance handicap hurdle, Kansas City Chief reversed recent form with Sporting John and Onagatheringstrom.
It was a gutsy display from a horse who will be a teenager in a months time.

 
Saturday

For possibly the first time this season, I felt really positive about the Best bets that I issued on Saturday.

There were 4 of them - and whilst I didn’t think any of them were certainties - I did think they were all very good bets.

Ultimately, I need the races - and the horses - if I’m going to find any decent winners - and I felt both were there…

Bun Doran was the first of them to run.

My angle was to take on Editeur du Gite and Amoola Gold.
Both had recently won decent races - but had put in big efforts to do so.

And whilst I was right to oppose the latter - the former produced yet another huge performance.

He again jumped from fence to fence - without blemish - and came home 4 lengths clear of the field.

He beat Bun Doran by 10 lengths when they clashed in November - and the margin was only reduced by 2 lengths - despite a 10lb weight pull (and Bun Doran should also have improved for his first run of the season).

In truth, it was hard not to be impressed by the effort of the winner, who is clearly a horse on a rapid upward curve.

To make matters worse, I covered Cheddleton and Frero Banbou for the Matrix.
But they could only follow home Editeur du Gite, at a respectable distance - with Bun Doran running on into fourth (and looking as if he needed further - or softer ground).

Deyarann de Carjac was the next Best bet to run, in the Racing Post Gold Cup.

This looked a particularly competitive race, in which most of the field could be given a chance.

It was easy enough to make half a case for Deyrann de Carjac on recent form - and a much stronger case for him on historical form - and at 25/1, he looked a very good bet.

And up until halfway, I couldn’t have been happier: he was travelling like a dream and jumping like a buck !
Then he just walked through the open ditch...

It was quite bizarre - almost as if he didn’t see the fence.
It was amazing that he didn’t fall - but even more so, that it barely checked his momentum.
However, I got the feeling that it did unnerve him.

Turning in, he still had a chance - and jumping the second last I thought he might possibly get there.
However, when he needed to up his game, there was nothing left - and he weakened up the hill, ultimately finishing fifth.

Whether the mistake made the difference, is impossible to say - but it certainly didn’t help.

Heaven Help Us was the next Best bet to run - and I was very keen on her.

I thought I’d seen an angle which had been missed by most.
In a race where there was no confirmed front runner, I felt she may be able to grab an uncontested lead - and if she did that, I thought she would be hard to beat.

She was very well backed in the lead up to the race (almost halving in price) - which gave me great cause for optimism: but in the key final couple of mins before the off, her price drifted like a barge.
Chris monitors these things, and said that she was the biggest late drifter in the race - and by some margin.
That should never happen with a front runner (because people will look to play them IR).

And low and behold - she didn’t front run !
Instead she was held up - and whilst she stayed on late, she was never going to have the pace to get seriously involved.

It was a real disappointment - and a bit baffling.
I can only assume that the missing cheek pieces were the key - I’ll certainly be watching out for those the next time she runs…

The final Best bet to run was Kauto Riko - and he was another late drifter.

However, that didn’t stop him from going agonisingly close...

He was held up in the early part of the race - but had every chance when the pace started to quicken up the home straight.
He was just moving into contention, when he ploughed through the third last - and that looked to be that.

What happened next was a little bizarre…

Despite the bad mistake, he closed on his rivals - and was only a length down jumping the second last.
However, the front 2 then started to get away from him - and his cause looked lost.

He was about 6 lengths down jumping the last - and appeared well held.
However, he then started run on with real purpose.
He was gaining on the front 2, hand over fist - but the line came a few strides too soon - and he was beaten half a length

It was another desperately frustrating result.

Post race, his jockey said that he hung left between the final 2 fences - which is why he lost ground.
Take away that - or the mistake at the third last - and he would have been a clear winner.

Surely one of these has to drop our way soon !

Away from the Best bets, there was just one other Matrix bet on the day.

I suggested Natural History, who I feel has sufficient talent to defy his current mark - but who seems loathed to show it !
He ran a nothing kind of race at Doncaster - finishing sixth without ever threatening.
He’ll maybe come good at some point in the season, but I suspect you’ll need a lot of patience to profit from him.

In the other races of note on the day, there were wins for My Drogo and Blazing Kahl at Cheltenham - and Knight Salute at Doncaster.


And so ended another disappointing day.
I had such high hopes - but things just wouldn’t drop right.

It’s been the story of the season so far - but we’re barely a third of the way through yet, so there’s still plenty of time for a happy ending !

Fingers crossed

TVB