Cheltenhams 2 day international meeting gets underway tomorrow with a 7 race card.
And it’s a strong card as well - arguably stronger than Saturdays (just without the feature races).There are 6 handicaps - and a decent novice hurdle - and all of the races have drawn competitive fields.
I was expecting the ground to be soft (or maybe worse) - but the official description is ‘Good to soft - good in places’ - and I’ve no reason to disbelieve it.
Quick-ish ground it is then !
I’m hopeful that I’ll be able to issue any bets tomorrow morning, just after 9:00 (ie. the usual time).
I really don’t want to spend all morning dealing with Friday, when I’ve got a busy Saturday to study for !
Cheltenham
12:05
The opening race is the only non-handicap on the card - but it still looks reasonably competitive to me...
The betting isn’t quite so convinced - as Hartur D’oudaries has been installed a short priced favourite.
He was impressive enough when winning a novice hurdle at Warwick - but it’s anyones guess what the form is worth.
He was very well backed that day - which was probably telling - and if the same thing happens tomorrow, then it’s fair to assume he’s considered a good horse by his shrewd connections.
That said, they don’t always show on the track, what they show at home…
Washington sets the race standard, on his last time out effort behind I Like to Move it.
The winner is a good horse - and Washington ran him to 2 lengths, suggesting he also has a fair level of talent.
Jpr One also demonstrated significant ability, when winning on his racecourse debt at Exeter.
He beat Luttrell Lad - who had previously finished runner up in a grade 2.
If the form can be taken literally - and there’s no reason for disbelieving it - then Jpr One could be hard to beat.
It’s not surprising to see the other 3 runners at bigger prices in the betting - but equally, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise of one of them was to win.
Datsalrightgino won well on his hurdling debut at Fontwell last month, having been placed in 4 bumpers last season.
Great Heart’jac and Socialist agenda both receive 6lb from their rivals, as neither has won a hurdle race.
However, both have finished runner up on their sole try over obstacles - having shown decent form in bumpers last season.
They each have significant scope for improvement - and therefore couldn’t be easily dismissed.
A tricky start to proceedings !
12:40
Coeur Serien has been installed favourite for this, on the back of an unlucky run last time at Lingfield. He should have won that day, but crumpled on landing, after jumping the last.
Even more unfortunately for him, he’s been raised 7lb for his effort - and probably faces stronger opposition tomorrow.
Suffice to say, the early quote of 2/1 makes minimal appeal…
I made Undersupervision a Best bet at the last Cheltenham meeting - but he got no further than the third fence.
That was obviously hugely disappointing - but it was also a little bit odd.
He’d jumped well on his chasing debut a month earlier - but that day, ballooned the first 3 fences - landing on the third one !
I’ve no idea what happened - or indeed whether he will repeat it.
If he does, he’s got no chance - if he doesn’t then he has every chance.
I guess it’s a case of you pay your money, and make your choice…
Corach Rambler won a fair race at Aintree last time - and probably sets the standard.
However, from a 7lb higher mark tomorrow, he will need to improve again.
Barbados Buck’s was a decent novice hurdler last season - but made an underwhelming start to his chasing career at Wetherby.
He didn’t look keen from the start that day, so it’s no surprise to see blinkers applied tomorrow.
A lot will depend on the impact they have, as he’s probably got sufficient ability to win - if they encourage him to put his best foot froward.
The other 3 runners have all got a chance, with J’Ai Froid possibly the most interesting.
He was a very progressive hurdler last year - with his second place to Hometown Boy on his final start, looking particularly strong form.
He was quite well beaten on his chasing debut at Hexham last month - but I would expect that run to have brought him on.
His doesn’t appear to have much wriggle room from a mark of 143 - though it’s hard to say he doesn’t warrant it, based on last years efforts.
1:15
Broomfield Burg is the obvious start place in this…
He’s one of those very unexposed horses, with high profile connections, making it’s handicap debut after just a couple of runs over hurdles.
He hacked up on his hurdling debut at Warwick in May - but was then beaten on his comeback at Newbury last month.
Whilst that appeared a little disappointing, the form is impossible to assess - and he still could be anything…
Quinta do Mar has already won 2 handicap hurdles this season - and appears to be progressing fast.
However, he is also shooting up the handicap - and will be running tomorrow off a mark 16lb higher than for his first win.
He may be up to defying it - but the handicapper will catch him sooner or later…
Lovely Citizen finished second in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and must have every chance tomorrow off a mark just 1lb higher.
His case will also be helped by the booking of a 7lb claimer - and it’s hard to see him out of the frame.
The question is whether there will be one or two, better handicapped than him…
The 4 year olds: Royaume Uni, Castel Gandolfo and Punxsutawney Phil can all be given a chance - with the last named probably the most interesting…
He finished fourth in a strong race over the course last time - and runs off the same mark tomorrow.
He is also being dropped back in trip by half a mile, and that looks like a positive move.
Mengli Khan is the final one of interest.
He won the grade 1 Royal Bond hurdle, 4 years ago - and finished third in that years Supreme novice hurdle.
He’s spent most of this time since then running over fences - but has never really looked a natural.
He has his second run over hurdles for Nicky Henderson tomorrow, having dropped 15lb from his initial UK chase mark.
He’ll also be ridden by a 7lb claimer - so taking that into consideration, will be off a mark of 128 - which is a very low rating for a former grade 1 winner…
1:50
Fontaine Collonges and Precious Eleanor fought out the finish to a similar race to this, at Warwick, 3 weeks ago.
Fontains Collonges just came out on top that day - but on 4lb better terms, Precious Eleanor must have every chance of reversing the form.
Certainly, I doubt there will be much between the pair - which makes early prices of 5/2 and 7/1 seem a little strange.
I would expect them to converge, close to the off (whilst still making Fontaine Collonges the slight favourite).
Rose of Arcadia will be making her chasing debut in this, after a pleasing enough seasonal debut run over hurdles at Wincanton.
She finished third in a decent race that day, having looked the most likely winner, jumping the second last.
Her fencing will have to be taken on trust tomorrow - but as a former PTP winner, there is reason for optimism on that score.
Pretty Little Liar makes the journey over from Ireland - and she is a dark one…
I believe that she will be her trainers first runner at the course - and I doubt she is been sent over for a day out !
She made an impressive chasing debut at Thurles, at the beginning of last month - but then took a very heavy fall at the same course, just a fortnight ago.
If she is fully recovered from that (both physically and mentally), I’d expect her to go very well - but it has to be a concern…
Dame du Soir looks the most interesting of the outsiders.
She ran well enough on her return to fences at Fontwell last month, and is now rated 1lb lower than when winning over hurdles at Chepstow in January.
2:25
Enrilo is the early favourite for the big race of the day - and that is quite understandable.
On his most recent start, he was sent off at just 8/1 for the Ladbroke trophy - and was still travelling comfortably, when he came down at half way.
Assuming he is over the fall, then he must have every chance tomorrow, off the same mark, in a significantly weaker race…
Commodore would have finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and must have a good chance tomorrow from a mark 3lb lower.
He’ll be making his seasonal debut - but put up a career best effort first time out last season - and is clearly at his best when fresh.
The only concern with him, is the ground - as he appears to have a marked preference for soft (and it appears unlikely that he will get that).
Rocco was the surprise winner of the Badger Beer chase at Wincanton, just over a month ago.
There appeared no fluke about his win - and a 5lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh.
That said, his form in general suggests he will be doing well to win this race off a mark of 139.
In fact, I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see Hurricane Harvey reverse the form.
At the revised weights, there shouldn’t be much between the pair - but I could see Hurricane Harvey being better suited to the demands of Cheltenham, whilst first time cheek pieces are an interesting addition for a horse who struggled to lay up, last time…
3:00
This is an odd race, in so much as it’s virtually a rerun of the cross country race from the November meeting…
That race was narrowly won by Back on the Lash - but no fewer than 8 of his rivals that day, re-oppose tomorrow - including the 7 that followed him home most closely ! (plus one that unseated)
There has been a slight tweaking of the respective weights - so in theory, the finish should be even tighter tomorrow !
In truth, it’s impossible to be adamant about which one will come out on top…
Back on the Last won well - and should have a good chance of following up off a mark just 3lb higher.
However, both he - and runner up Singing Banjo - were race fit that day, which might enable third placed Diesel D’allier, to reverse the form…
That said, fourth placed Plan of Attack probably finished best of all - and he too should be better for that run.
Though it is interesting that Rachel Blackmore remains loyal to his stablemate, Balko des flos - despite him only finishing fifth…
Midnight Maestro represents a completely different form line…
Formerly a fair horse for Alan King, he switched into the Care of Banks supremo Enda Bolger, just over a year ago.
He won a handicap chase at Leopardstown over Christmas - and also ran well at the Punchestown festival in the spring.
He made his cross country debut at Punchestown last month and finished a very promising runner up to stablemate Shady Operator.
If he can build on that form, he could very easily spoil the November race reunion !
3:35
Sporting John beat Onagatheringstorm in a similar race at the November meeting - and looks the one to beat in this..
In theory, the runner up has a good chance of reversing the form on 4lb better terms for just over 2 lengths.
However Sporting John has a touch of class about him - and powered up the hill that day.
He won the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase in February - and on that form, a mark of 151 looks quite reasonable (accepting the different disciplines).
In truth, this doesn’t look a particularly strong contest…
Onagatheringstorm once again appears Sporting Johns most solid rival - and you need to get a little speculative if you want something from outside the pair…
Botox Has could be the one - stepping up to 3 miles for the first time.
He’s clearly a talented animal (you can tell that by the way he is backed, every time he runs !) - but I’m not convinced about him at 3 miles - particularly in first time cheek pieces (which could light him up).
The Wreckin is perhaps the most interesting outsider in the field.
He too will be wearing first time cheek pieces - however, he likes to front run, so if they light him up, it may help his chance.
He’s a young horse (5) - and ran a fair race last time, when fifth in a handicap at the November meeting.
That was over 2m5f but if he copes with the step up in trip, he could run well.
Ask Dillon and Agrapart can be given chances based on old form - though I suspect they would prefer softer ground than they will get, and they are both very exposed…
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