Best bets
Huntingdon
1:52
Eldorado Allen 0.5pt win 11/2 (5/1 is acceptable)
1:52
Eldorado Allen 0.5pt win 11/2 (5/1 is acceptable)
Matrix bets
Kelso
1:03
Chidswell 3 units win CEP 12 FP 11
Weststreet 2 units win CEP 5.2 FP 4.5
Amateur 2 units win CEP 8 FP 9
Do not Disturb 2 units win CEP 10 FP 11
Geronimo 1 unit win CEP 22 FP 17
Kelso
1:03
Chidswell 3 units win CEP 12 FP 11
Weststreet 2 units win CEP 5.2 FP 4.5
Amateur 2 units win CEP 8 FP 9
Do not Disturb 2 units win CEP 10 FP 11
Geronimo 1 unit win CEP 22 FP 17
Today has turned out to be a bit quieter than I expected,
from a betting perspective - mainly because I don’t feel I can take on either of
the Big Irish races…
I’m happy to have a go at the 2 Big races being run in the UK: one via a Best bet - and the other via a Matrix.
At Punchestown, I feel the John Durkan simply has to be a watching race.
7 runners from the same stable is always going to make it a hard race to play in - but when they are all also making their seasonal debuts, it feels a step too far !
In terms of pure ability, then Allaho is probably the best horse in the race - but I doubt he’ll be 100%.
Asterion Furlonge may turn out to be the best of the Mullins septet - but I’m guessing.
I hope Envoi Allen wins - as NH racing needs its superstars - and he could be one.
However, Fakir D’oudaries is a serious rival…
If you want a speculative EW shot, then I’d suggest Melon - but not officially !
At Cork, the Hilly Way has similar appeal, from a betting perspective (ie. very little !)
Energumene is likely to be too good for his rivals - but I wouldn’t want to bet on it !
Notebook will keep him honest: whilst Cash Back and Daly Tiger are both capable of out running their odds - provided they are fully wound up…
Again, there’s too much guesswork required on fitness, to make any official suggestions.
At Huntingdon, I think it is worth taking a chance on Eldorado Allen in the Peterborough chase.
He has a bit to find on official ratings with the market principals - but he’s improving - and could improve further, for todays step up in trip.
He could also have the race run to suit, as there should be a lot of pace (all of the other main protagonists, like to race prominently).
I don’t underestimate how hard it will be to beat Allmankind - but neither has the market !
Master Tommytucker had a hard race a fortnight ago - whilst Funambule Sivola has yet to fully prove himself at this level.
First Flow is probably over-priced - tho this is mainly a fact finding mission for him, and I’ll be a touch surprised if he wins.
At Kelso, I did toy with making Chidswell a best bet.
He was 20/1 yesterday evening, and could have been worth a risk at that price. However he has been backed into half that price - which strikes me as about right.
In truth, there are 4 or 5 who have a chance - which makes the race ideal for the Matrix !
I’ll build it around Chidswell - but add in the fav, Weststreet, Amateur, Do not Disturb and Geronimo.
Gordon Elliott could well have revitalised Weststreet, so he has to be included - at least as a saver; Amateur was eye-catching last time - and whilst he looks high enough in the weights, he could still be improving; Do not Disturb has probably been targeted at the race - and is another improving sort; whilst Geronimo is the joker in the pack, back after injury.
I’d estimate that it’s odds on the winner will come from that list.
My suggestion would be to aim to return double total stake on Amateur, Do not Disturb and Geronimo. Get the biggest win from Chidswell and recover stakes from Weststreet.
I’m happy to have a go at the 2 Big races being run in the UK: one via a Best bet - and the other via a Matrix.
At Punchestown, I feel the John Durkan simply has to be a watching race.
7 runners from the same stable is always going to make it a hard race to play in - but when they are all also making their seasonal debuts, it feels a step too far !
In terms of pure ability, then Allaho is probably the best horse in the race - but I doubt he’ll be 100%.
Asterion Furlonge may turn out to be the best of the Mullins septet - but I’m guessing.
I hope Envoi Allen wins - as NH racing needs its superstars - and he could be one.
However, Fakir D’oudaries is a serious rival…
If you want a speculative EW shot, then I’d suggest Melon - but not officially !
At Cork, the Hilly Way has similar appeal, from a betting perspective (ie. very little !)
Energumene is likely to be too good for his rivals - but I wouldn’t want to bet on it !
Notebook will keep him honest: whilst Cash Back and Daly Tiger are both capable of out running their odds - provided they are fully wound up…
Again, there’s too much guesswork required on fitness, to make any official suggestions.
At Huntingdon, I think it is worth taking a chance on Eldorado Allen in the Peterborough chase.
He has a bit to find on official ratings with the market principals - but he’s improving - and could improve further, for todays step up in trip.
He could also have the race run to suit, as there should be a lot of pace (all of the other main protagonists, like to race prominently).
I don’t underestimate how hard it will be to beat Allmankind - but neither has the market !
Master Tommytucker had a hard race a fortnight ago - whilst Funambule Sivola has yet to fully prove himself at this level.
First Flow is probably over-priced - tho this is mainly a fact finding mission for him, and I’ll be a touch surprised if he wins.
At Kelso, I did toy with making Chidswell a best bet.
He was 20/1 yesterday evening, and could have been worth a risk at that price. However he has been backed into half that price - which strikes me as about right.
In truth, there are 4 or 5 who have a chance - which makes the race ideal for the Matrix !
I’ll build it around Chidswell - but add in the fav, Weststreet, Amateur, Do not Disturb and Geronimo.
Gordon Elliott could well have revitalised Weststreet, so he has to be included - at least as a saver; Amateur was eye-catching last time - and whilst he looks high enough in the weights, he could still be improving; Do not Disturb has probably been targeted at the race - and is another improving sort; whilst Geronimo is the joker in the pack, back after injury.
I’d estimate that it’s odds on the winner will come from that list.
My suggestion would be to aim to return double total stake on Amateur, Do not Disturb and Geronimo. Get the biggest win from Chidswell and recover stakes from Weststreet.
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