Best bets
Haydock2:40
Enqarde 0.5pt win 11/1 (10/1 is acceptable)
11:50
Chti Balko 1pt win 5/2 (9/4 is acceptable)
Ascot
1:50
Knight in Dubai 0.5pt win 4/1 (don't take less than that)
Chti Balko 1pt win 5/2 (9/4 is acceptable)
Ascot
1:50
Knight in Dubai 0.5pt win 4/1 (don't take less than that)
Matrix bets
Ascot
1:50
Ornua 1 unit win CEP 32 FP 26
2:25
Ronald Pump 2 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
3:00
Belami des Pictons 2 units win CEP 7.6 FP 7
Annsam 1 unit win CEP 10.5 FP 9
3:35
No Ordinary Joe 2 units win CEP 5.1 FP 5
Benson 2 units win CEP 17 FP 13
Drop the Anchor 1 unit win 23 FP 21
Haydock
2:20
Remastered 2 units win CEP 3.85 FP 4
Acey Milan 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15
1:50
Ornua 1 unit win CEP 32 FP 26
2:25
Ronald Pump 2 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
3:00
Belami des Pictons 2 units win CEP 7.6 FP 7
Annsam 1 unit win CEP 10.5 FP 9
3:35
No Ordinary Joe 2 units win CEP 5.1 FP 5
Benson 2 units win CEP 17 FP 13
Drop the Anchor 1 unit win 23 FP 21
Haydock
2:20
Remastered 2 units win CEP 3.85 FP 4
Acey Milan 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15
I’m not sure why, but it was really hard to get ‘fair prices’
on this mornings Best bets...
The bookmaker odds were a significantly less than those available on the exchanges.
It’s something that tends to happen when I issue bets in the big handicaps - because the extra places that the bookies offer, result in reduced ‘win’ prices.
However, that wasn't the case with todays bets.
I waited in the hope that they might right themselves - but they didn’t.
Suffice to say, I would expect the Best bets to be available at greater than advise price, prior to the off (because they were available at greater than advised price, before I issued them !).
Anyway, it is what it is.
I figured the most important thing was to get us on the ‘right’ horses !
I’ve end up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus quite a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…
Ascot
I’m pretty keen on Knight in Dubai in the 1:50 - but unfortunately, so are plenty of others !
He looks primed to run a massive race - and is handicapped to win.
Most of his rivals have significant question marks over them, which I guess is why his price is shorter than I expected.
Ornua has question marks against him - but he is priced up accordingly.
He might get the run of the race - and could be well handicapped - he is therefore worth covering for the Matrix.
I like Ronald Pump best in the 2:25 - but he is beatable.
I’ll be amazed if he isn’t placed - and with Buzz in the race, he would have been a great EW bet (at around 5/1).
I still think he could win - and he’s definitely the most solid option in the race.
However, the price isn’t there to make him a Best bet - so I’ll just cover him in the Matrix…
I was tempted to make Belami des Pictons a Best bet in the 3:00 - but the price wouldn’t go where I wanted !
He was 7/1 on the exchanges - but 5/1 with the Bookmakers.
In fairness, he does come with risks. This will be his second run on the back of a long break - and I’ve got slight reservations about him over the trip.
I could see him drifting, close to the off - but he’s worth a risk at 6/1+
Annsam is also worth a risk.
Again the concern with him, is stamina - but the quick ground should help.
Both are worth covering in the Matrix…
I was tempted to deploy the full Matrix on the 3:35 - but I don’t think I’ve quite got a good enough handle on the race…
I think No Ordinary Joe is the most likely winner - but he’s a relatively short priced fav, so I’m just inclined to cover stakes on him.
I’ll also take a punt on 3 big priced runners: Benson, Drop the Anchor and Mack the Man.
Benson could win the race - if the visor has the desired effect !
The other 2 both have chances - and are over-priced at 20/1+
I’ve covered all 4 in a limited Matrix (accepting that half a dozen others in the race, also have a chance)
Haydock
I’ve gone off-piste in the Haydock opener (11:50) - because I really fancy Chti Balko !
I put him up as a Best bet in this very race 12 months ago - and he hacked up by 26 lengths !
Amazingly, he runs off a mark 6lb lower today - and has clearly been targeted at a repeat.
It’ll take a good one (in fact, a very good one !) to beat him - and the only one that looks capable is Green Book.
He’s been backed into favourtism - but I’m hoping that’s because he’s trained by Venetia and ridden by a 10lb claimer.
He might be too good for Chti Balko - but he’ll need to have a stone in hand of his mark - and handle conditions, if he’s going to beat him.
In my mind, 6/4 was a fair price on Chti Balko - so at 9/4, he’s a good bet.
I can’t see an angle in to the 2:05.
The 3 I like best, head the market - and I’d struggle to choose between them.
It may be a race where it’s worth waiting until close to the off and seeing if one of them drifts to a decent price (5/1).
Little Awkward is the most interesting of the outsiders - but I don’t like him enough to warrant getting involved.
Remastered is the obvious call in the 2:40 - provided he’s recovered from his crunching fall in the Ladbroke trophy.
With that doubt however, he can be no more than a saver…
The best bet in the race, is Enqarde.
He ran really well in a better race over the course in February - and should appreciate dropping back in trip today.
He also ran a nice race on his seasonal debut - which should have put him spot in for this.
3 or 4 others can be given half chances - with the most interesting of those, Acey Milan.
He looks over-priced at 16/1+ and is worth including in the Matrix.
The bookmaker odds were a significantly less than those available on the exchanges.
It’s something that tends to happen when I issue bets in the big handicaps - because the extra places that the bookies offer, result in reduced ‘win’ prices.
However, that wasn't the case with todays bets.
I waited in the hope that they might right themselves - but they didn’t.
Suffice to say, I would expect the Best bets to be available at greater than advise price, prior to the off (because they were available at greater than advised price, before I issued them !).
Anyway, it is what it is.
I figured the most important thing was to get us on the ‘right’ horses !
I’ve end up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus quite a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…
Ascot
I’m pretty keen on Knight in Dubai in the 1:50 - but unfortunately, so are plenty of others !
He looks primed to run a massive race - and is handicapped to win.
Most of his rivals have significant question marks over them, which I guess is why his price is shorter than I expected.
Ornua has question marks against him - but he is priced up accordingly.
He might get the run of the race - and could be well handicapped - he is therefore worth covering for the Matrix.
I like Ronald Pump best in the 2:25 - but he is beatable.
I’ll be amazed if he isn’t placed - and with Buzz in the race, he would have been a great EW bet (at around 5/1).
I still think he could win - and he’s definitely the most solid option in the race.
However, the price isn’t there to make him a Best bet - so I’ll just cover him in the Matrix…
I was tempted to make Belami des Pictons a Best bet in the 3:00 - but the price wouldn’t go where I wanted !
He was 7/1 on the exchanges - but 5/1 with the Bookmakers.
In fairness, he does come with risks. This will be his second run on the back of a long break - and I’ve got slight reservations about him over the trip.
I could see him drifting, close to the off - but he’s worth a risk at 6/1+
Annsam is also worth a risk.
Again the concern with him, is stamina - but the quick ground should help.
Both are worth covering in the Matrix…
I was tempted to deploy the full Matrix on the 3:35 - but I don’t think I’ve quite got a good enough handle on the race…
I think No Ordinary Joe is the most likely winner - but he’s a relatively short priced fav, so I’m just inclined to cover stakes on him.
I’ll also take a punt on 3 big priced runners: Benson, Drop the Anchor and Mack the Man.
Benson could win the race - if the visor has the desired effect !
The other 2 both have chances - and are over-priced at 20/1+
I’ve covered all 4 in a limited Matrix (accepting that half a dozen others in the race, also have a chance)
Haydock
I’ve gone off-piste in the Haydock opener (11:50) - because I really fancy Chti Balko !
I put him up as a Best bet in this very race 12 months ago - and he hacked up by 26 lengths !
Amazingly, he runs off a mark 6lb lower today - and has clearly been targeted at a repeat.
It’ll take a good one (in fact, a very good one !) to beat him - and the only one that looks capable is Green Book.
He’s been backed into favourtism - but I’m hoping that’s because he’s trained by Venetia and ridden by a 10lb claimer.
He might be too good for Chti Balko - but he’ll need to have a stone in hand of his mark - and handle conditions, if he’s going to beat him.
In my mind, 6/4 was a fair price on Chti Balko - so at 9/4, he’s a good bet.
I can’t see an angle in to the 2:05.
The 3 I like best, head the market - and I’d struggle to choose between them.
It may be a race where it’s worth waiting until close to the off and seeing if one of them drifts to a decent price (5/1).
Little Awkward is the most interesting of the outsiders - but I don’t like him enough to warrant getting involved.
Remastered is the obvious call in the 2:40 - provided he’s recovered from his crunching fall in the Ladbroke trophy.
With that doubt however, he can be no more than a saver…
The best bet in the race, is Enqarde.
He ran really well in a better race over the course in February - and should appreciate dropping back in trip today.
He also ran a nice race on his seasonal debut - which should have put him spot in for this.
3 or 4 others can be given half chances - with the most interesting of those, Acey Milan.
He looks over-priced at 16/1+ and is worth including in the Matrix.
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