Whilst there might not be as many meetings tomorrow (just the 5 !) - the quality is comparable with today - and the opportunity for bets, looks greater…
Kempton and Chepstow provide the main action in the UK; with Leopardstown the prime meeting in Ireland.
There are big races at all 3 venues - and I’ve preview most of them (to some degree, at least !)
Following todays racing, I’ve at least got a better feel for how the ground will be riding at both Kempton and Leopardstown - whilst it’s always soft (or heavy !) at Chepstow…
Here are my thoughts on the days main races…
Kempton
1:20
Even under a 5lb penalty, its hard to look beyond Edwardstone in this.
He was really impressive last time, when hacking up in the Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and if he’s in similar form tomorrow, he will win.
In terms of pure ability, I think that Do your Job is the second best horse in the race - however, I’m not sure that the tight Kempton track will really suit him.
As a consequence, it may be Solo who chases home Edwardstone - but probably at a respectful distance…
1:55
There is likely to be a lot of pace in this race, as Bourbon Beauty and Go Millie Go, are both confirmed front runners.
Most of the other runners also like to race prominently, with the possible exception of Empressive Lady.
As a consequence, the race could be run to favour her - and as she’s also quite well handicapped, she warrants serious consideration…
5 of the 7 runners clashed last time at Ascot - with Tequila Blaze coming out on top.
She was over 4 lengths clear of all her rivals that day - and a 5lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh (particularly as she will be ridden by a 3lb claimer tomorrow).
It’s not obvious why any of those behind her should reverse the form tomorrow - so her biggest danger may well turn out to be Empressive Lady…
2:30
Another 4 horse race - and this one sees the seasonal reappearance of Shishkin.
Unbeaten in his last 8 starts, he won 5 novice chases last season - including the Arkle and the grade 1 Maghull novice chase at Aintree.
The expectation is that he’ll become the top 2 mile chaser in training this season - and tomorrow should give us a good idea of whether that is going to happen.
His main rival is Greaneteen, who was a slightly surprising winner of the Tingle Creek on his most recent outing.
There was certainly no fluke about his win that day - tho with Chacun Pour Soi performing below form, there are questions over the merit of the form.
He will have to concede 3lb to Shishkin tomorrow - and even with race fitness on his side, if Shishkin is top class, he won’t be able to do that…
Sky Pirate and Before Midnight complete the line-up - but they are really making up the numbers.
That said, it’s a bonus that Before Midnight is running, as he is a natural front runner and should therefore ensure there is an honest pace to the race.
3:10
From a betting perspective, this is by far the best race on the Kempton card…
Cap du Nord will take a bit of beating if he’s in the same form he was in 12 months ago, when he finished runner up to Royal Pagaille in this race.
He faced an impossible task that day - but finished 20 lengths clear of the third horse.
He’s back down to the same mark tomorrow - so does appear the one to beat.
Canelo is another who is back down in the ratings - to the mark off which, he won last seasons Rowland Meyrick.
He beat Snow Leopardess in that race - and she has really franked that form this season.
By contrast, Canelo has been a little disappointing - but if the first time visor perks him up, he should go very close.
Real Steal is yet another potentially well handicapped horse.
He ran in last years King George - and ran a fair race until he bled.
His 3 subsequent outings have been a little underwhelming - but he’s dropped 18lb in the handicap as a consequence.
If Paul Nicholls has him right tomorrow, he could be a danger to them all.
Chepstow
1:05
When you’re Ready heads the early market for this, on the back of a comfortable win last time, over course and distance.
He’s been raised 7lb for his efforts - but that doesn’t seem unreasonable.
Not only did he win well, he also retains plenty of scope for improvement.
He looks the one to beat…
Zambezi Fix and Duc de beauchene are closely matched on March form, over course and distance.
Duc de Beauchene got the better of their battle that day - but only by a nose.
He’s 2lb better off tomorrow - but Zambezi Fix has run some good races in the interim and as a 6 year old, should have the greater scope for improvement.
1:40
For a grade 1, this looks to be a weak race.
Obviously, it’s hard to tell with juvenile hurdles - but certainly, it contains no horses with big reputations…
Porticello sets the race standard.
He won on his UK debut at Wetherby - and finished runner up on a grade 2 at Doncaster on his most recent start.
That’s fair form - but it shouldn’t be an insurmountable standard.
Forever Blessed is edging him for favouritism.
He’s unbeaten in 2 starts - most recently, when romping home at Sandown.
It’s nearly impossible to quantify his form and he really could be anything.
Half cases can be made for most of the others, with Saint Segal possibly looking the most interesting.
He won on his racecourse debut at Bangor - and comes from a stable (Jane Williams) whose horses tend to improve for an outing…
2:10
I could be quite keen on Kateson in this - if it weren’t for the fact that he doesn’t appear to stay 3 miles !
He’s tried the trip 3 times and disappointed on each occasion - maybe tomorrow will be different…
He’s certainly got good course form: and he’s attractively handicapped - so if Tom Scudamore can eke out a bit of extra stamina, then he could take a bit of beating.
His case may be helped by the fact that there is no obvious front runner in the field (aside from him !).
It’s easy enough to pick holes in the form of most of the others:
Take your time is the obvious alternative, chasing a hat-trick.
However, he wasn’t massively impressive last time and will need to defy a 5lb higher mark tomorrow.
Al Dancer could potentially be a lot better than his rivals - though he has a welter burden to carry.
The booking of a 7lb claimer will help - though even with that, he’ll still have to carry 12st for 3 miles in the Chepstow mud - which is no small ask !
2:50
This is a particularly strong renewal of the Welsh National - and sifting through the 20 runners, is quite a task.
In theory, it should be helped by the fact that native River is running, as his presence means that almost half the field are out of the handicap.
However, in reality, it doesn’t help a great deal…!
Secret Reprieve has to be the first one on the short list.
He won the race 12 months ago - and must have every chance of following up tomorrow off a mark just 6lb higher.
It’s far from ideal that he’s not run since - but there can be little doubting that he’s a potentially well handicapped horse, who will be perfectly suited by the test.
Irish raider, The Big Dog, is the next one on the list.
He was subject to a massive plunge when winning at Punchestown in February - and whilst he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped, he’s almost certainly better than he’s shown so far.
Iwilldoit was hugely impressive when winning the trial for this race, 3 weeks ago.
He’d shown little over fences prior to that race, but jumped from fence to fence and won with any amount in hand.
Hill Sixteen is another one who put in a massive effort last time, when chasing home Snow Leopardess at Aintree.
He looks to have stamina to burn, so the step up in trip tomorrow, is likely to play right into his hands.
Of those at bigger prices, then Ramses de Teille is perhaps the most interesting.
He was runner up in this race 3 years ago, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He’s a very consistent horse and it’s hard to see him not running his race.
Discordantly is quite interesting for Jessica Harrington.
He’s been targeted at the race and ran well on his comeback in the Troytown.
His stamina is unproven - but if he does stay, then he should be in the mix.
Evas Oscar also needs to prove his stamina - but he’s a young chaser, who could easily improve sufficiently to take a hand at the finish.
Mac Tottie is the final one for the short(ish) list.
He was a good winner of the Grand Sefton on his penultimate start, before falling last time in the Becher chase.
He seems to have been dismissed on the back of that - but that seems a little premature.
There are at least 3 or 4 others, who can be given half chances - but I’ll leave it there and try to whittle things down to a manageable level tomorrow !
Leopardstown
1:10
Another 4 runner race - and it’s hard to see past Chacu Pour Soi…
He was a massive disappointment last time in the Tingle Creek at Sandown - but the hope has to be that his poor run was either down to the travelling or the undulating track.
He’s won 3 times at Leopardstown - including when taking this race 12 months ago - so there really will be no excuses for him tomorrow.
It also helps, that his main rival , Envoi Allen, isn’t proven as a 2 mile chaser.
All of his chase starts have been over further - so this really is an experiment.
In fairness, it’s worth a chance, as the horse is in danger of becoming disappointing.
Having looked a world beater, he has now lost 3 of his last 4 starts.
I suspect he will get an aggressive ride tomorrow - but whether he will be able to withstand Chacun Pour Soi, is a different matter.
Sizing Pottsie appeals most of the 2 outsiders - but he really shouldn’t be good enough to beat a peak form Chacun…
1:45
Largy Debut was impressive when beating Kilcrut on his hurdling debut at Cork, earlier this month.
The runner up was arguably the best bumper horse around last season and was sent off at 1/14 to make a successful hurdling debut.
However, he proved no match for Largy Debut - and there didn’t look to be any fluke about the result.
Ofcourse there could have been ! - and we’ll find out more tomorrow - but as things stand, Largy Debut appears the one to beat in this.
It’s not easy, choosing between his rivals.
The mare, Grangee, could prove the most dangerous, on the back of a successful hurdling debut at Fairyhouse.
That said, Three Stripe Life finished ahead of her in the Champion bumper at Cheltenham - and he also won on his hurling debut at the same track.
Mighty Potter has arguably got the best hurdling form - courtesy of his last time out third in the grade 1 Royal Bond.
He looked a bit unlucky that day - and if that was the case, then he could prove tough to beat…
2:20
This looks a bit of a minefield, so I’ve not spent too long trying to solve it.
That said, there are a few that catch my eye - and may warrant further investigation…
The first is Crowns Major, on his handicap debut.
He runs off a mark of 128 - but a rating of 97 on the flat suggests he could have at least 10lb in hand.
He’s also in the hands of a very shrewd trainer…
Get my Drift looks to be the main one for JP Mcmanus (Mark Walsh is on board).
Again, he’s a handicap débutante, who could have plenty in hand of his opening mark.
Sea Ducor is interesting for Author Moore.
His second to Master McShee, a year ago, reads particularly well, in light of that one winning a grade 1 chase today.
Whilst Patience Patience interests me most of the outsiders, on the back of a pipe opener at Dundalk, 122 days ago.
He likes to race prominently, so at very least could prove a decent IR play.
2:55
Just when I thought it couldn’t get any tougher !
The Paddy Power chase is the most valuable handicap run over the Christmas period - and horses tend to get layed out for the race…
Alfa Mix is the obvious place to start.
He’s owned by JP Mcmanus - and he tends to target one at this contest.
And that one could easily be Alpha Mix - as he has run eye catching races on both starts this season.
First time cheek pieces are applied tomorrow - and if they bring about any improvement, he’ll be hard to beat.
The Bosses Oscar also wear first time cheek pieces - and has a similar profile.
He’s only run 3 times over fences - but shaped quite well on each occasion.
He steps up in trip tomorrow - and for a horse who was runner up in last seasons Pertemps final, that should prove to be a good move.
He’s now also competing off an 8lb lower mark (accepting that UK & Irish marks aren’t the same), so could also be well handicapped.
Noble Yeats is the third one of significant interest.
He too has only run 3 times over fences - and hasn’t appeared the most natural fencer.
It’s therefore very interesting that supreme horseman, Derek O Connor, has been booked for the ride.
Outside those 3, it’s not as easy to find one to latch on to…
I was really impressed by the jumping of Coko Beach last time, when he failed to stay an extended trip.
Back down to 3 miles tomorrow - and with a 7lb claimer in the saddle, I could certainly see him running well.
Augusta Gold is quite interesting, for Willie Mullins.
She’s only run twice for him previously - and disappointed on both occasions. However, it’s likely to be just a matter of time before Willie finds the key…
Whilst Birchdale looks the most interesting of the outsiders.
He was rated 145 when with Nicky Henderson - but has rapidly crashed down to a mark of 129.
Enda Bolger has been running him over the wrong trip - but steps him up tomorrow and adds cheek pieces. Interesting…
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