Best bets
Chepstow1:05
Zambezi Fix 0.5pt win 15/2
2:50
Ramses de Teille 0.25pt EW 25/1 (ie. 0.25pt win & 0.25pt place)
Kempton
1:55
Tequila Blaze 0.5pt win 9/2
Leopardstown
1:10
Sizing Pottsie 0.5pt win 5/1
2:55
Alfa Mix 0.5pt win 8/1
1:55
Tequila Blaze 0.5pt win 9/2
Leopardstown
1:10
Sizing Pottsie 0.5pt win 5/1
2:55
Alfa Mix 0.5pt win 8/1
Matrix bets
Kempton
3:10
Cap du Nord 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 6
Chepstow
2:10
Flashjack 2 units win CEP 9.6 FP 9
2:50
Iwilldoit 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 10
Discordantly 1 unit win CEP 30 FP 21
The Big Dog 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Leopardstown
2:55
The Bosses Nephew 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 8
Noble Yeats 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 9
Augusta Gold 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15
Birchdale 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 34
3:10
Cap du Nord 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 6
Chepstow
2:10
Flashjack 2 units win CEP 9.6 FP 9
2:50
Iwilldoit 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 10
Discordantly 1 unit win CEP 30 FP 21
The Big Dog 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Leopardstown
2:55
The Bosses Nephew 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 8
Noble Yeats 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 9
Augusta Gold 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15
Birchdale 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 34
There’s some good racing today - arguably better than
yesterdays.
Certainly it was easier for me to find potential bets - tho getting ‘fair’ prices was as tricky as ever !
The bookmakers are very defensive in the morning - whilst the liquidity on the exchanges, is limited.
Still, it’s the world we have to operate in…
I’ve ended up with 6 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix - so a very busy day !
Here's my thinking...
Kempton
Edwardstone should win the 1:20 - with either Do Your Job or Solo, following him home.
However, I can’t see a betting angle…
Tequila Blaze strikes me as the most likely winner of the 1:55 - but I could see no margin in a price of 5/2, yesterday evening.
However, she’s a big drifter this morning - and at twice that price (in places), she is definitely worth a risk.
She won comfortably at Ascot last time - and even at the revised weights, I would expect her to confirm the form, with the 5 who finished behind her.
Emmpressive Lady looks the main danger - but she’s been backed into favouritism…
Shishkin should win the 2:30 - but if he’s not close to his peak, Greaneteen is more than capable of taking advantage.
The other 2 aren’t in the same class - tho I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sky Pirate run better than his odds imply.
I think it is worth taking a risk on Real Steel in the 3:10.
There is no doubt that he is handicapped to win - the question is how much of the old ability remains…
The suggestion at Ascot last time, was that sufficient does, to take a race of this nature.
Cap Du Nord is the obvious danger - and he is worth saving stakes on - however, Real Steel is the best bet in the race.
Chepstow
I like Zambezi Fix in the 1:05.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las, when he looked sure to win - but fell at the third last.
He also ran really well last time, when runner up over hurdles at Sandown.
When you’re Ready is the obvious danger - but he’s just too short in the betting.
I had planned to cover Duc de Beauchene for the Matrix - but he was pulled out, moments after I issued.
He looked a definite danger to Zambezi, so you should be pleased to accept the R4 on him not running !
I had planned to take a risk on Saint Segal in the 1:40 - but his price has gone too short…
He was 9/1 last night - but 11/2 now.
In truth, it’s not an easy race to get a handle on - but I felt he had a chance.
However, it would have been a ‘value’ call - and that value no longer exists…
The 2:10 looks just a bit too trappy…
I could make a case for both Kateson and Al Dancer - but I’m aware that there is a big question mark over each of them.
Flashjack could be the one - in conditions he should love.
However, he’s nearly 11, so probably not as good as he was.
He’s worth covering on the Matrix.
I think that Ramses de Teille will run a huge in the Welsh National (2:50)
He was runner up in the race 3 years ago - and whilst he disappointed in it last year, that was on the back of a very hard race at Cheltenham.
He’s had a much better preparation this time - and fitting of first time cheek pieces signals intent.
I’m conscious that there might be one or two progressive ones who could be a bit better than him, but I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go close.
If you are limited to the exchanges, you can back in the place market and should be able to get 5/1 for 4 places.
In addition to him, I’ve covered a few of the dangers in the Matrix.
Iwilldoit (tho his price has gone very short); the Big Dog and Discordantly.
All 3 have a chance of winning (or blowing out completely !)
Leopardstown
Chacun Pour Soi has be taken out of the 1:10 - meaning that Envoi Allen now only faces 2 rivals…
That actually makes it a better betting race - and Sizing Pottsie has becomes very interesting (as the sole 2 miler in the race).
A price of 5/1 is generous - and he’s worth a risk against 2 rivals, who would both be better over a longer trip.
I like Largey Debut best in the 1:45 - but there is some guesswork involved and therefore a price of 9/4, makes minimal appeal.
He could be top class - but if he’s not then Mighty Potter has enough talent to beat him.
Three Stripe Life also makes a bit of appeal, so on balance, it’s a race best watched.
The 3 horses of main interest, head the betting for the 2:20 - but I thought they would be shorter than there are.
Maybe that means I’ve not quite read things right..!
I like Sea Ducor best, as his hurdle form suggests he could have 10lb in hand of his mark.
However, he disappointed at the Curragh in June - so there is a question mark over him.
I was quite tempted to have a small play on him for the Matrix - but I’ve resisted and will just watch instead…
As with the previous race, I think the right 3 horses are at the head of the betting for the 2:55 - even if I thought they would be shorter prices…
I like Alpha Mix best, as he looked to have been trained with this race in mind (and JP McManus tends to target the race).
He’s the best bet.
However, The Bosses Nephew and Noble Yeats both look big dangers and are worth covering for the Matrix.
Of the outsiders, Birchdale and Augusta Gold are also worth covering.
Certainly it was easier for me to find potential bets - tho getting ‘fair’ prices was as tricky as ever !
The bookmakers are very defensive in the morning - whilst the liquidity on the exchanges, is limited.
Still, it’s the world we have to operate in…
I’ve ended up with 6 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix - so a very busy day !
Here's my thinking...
Kempton
Edwardstone should win the 1:20 - with either Do Your Job or Solo, following him home.
However, I can’t see a betting angle…
Tequila Blaze strikes me as the most likely winner of the 1:55 - but I could see no margin in a price of 5/2, yesterday evening.
However, she’s a big drifter this morning - and at twice that price (in places), she is definitely worth a risk.
She won comfortably at Ascot last time - and even at the revised weights, I would expect her to confirm the form, with the 5 who finished behind her.
Emmpressive Lady looks the main danger - but she’s been backed into favouritism…
Shishkin should win the 2:30 - but if he’s not close to his peak, Greaneteen is more than capable of taking advantage.
The other 2 aren’t in the same class - tho I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sky Pirate run better than his odds imply.
I think it is worth taking a risk on Real Steel in the 3:10.
There is no doubt that he is handicapped to win - the question is how much of the old ability remains…
The suggestion at Ascot last time, was that sufficient does, to take a race of this nature.
Cap Du Nord is the obvious danger - and he is worth saving stakes on - however, Real Steel is the best bet in the race.
Chepstow
I like Zambezi Fix in the 1:05.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las, when he looked sure to win - but fell at the third last.
He also ran really well last time, when runner up over hurdles at Sandown.
When you’re Ready is the obvious danger - but he’s just too short in the betting.
I had planned to cover Duc de Beauchene for the Matrix - but he was pulled out, moments after I issued.
He looked a definite danger to Zambezi, so you should be pleased to accept the R4 on him not running !
I had planned to take a risk on Saint Segal in the 1:40 - but his price has gone too short…
He was 9/1 last night - but 11/2 now.
In truth, it’s not an easy race to get a handle on - but I felt he had a chance.
However, it would have been a ‘value’ call - and that value no longer exists…
The 2:10 looks just a bit too trappy…
I could make a case for both Kateson and Al Dancer - but I’m aware that there is a big question mark over each of them.
Flashjack could be the one - in conditions he should love.
However, he’s nearly 11, so probably not as good as he was.
He’s worth covering on the Matrix.
I think that Ramses de Teille will run a huge in the Welsh National (2:50)
He was runner up in the race 3 years ago - and whilst he disappointed in it last year, that was on the back of a very hard race at Cheltenham.
He’s had a much better preparation this time - and fitting of first time cheek pieces signals intent.
I’m conscious that there might be one or two progressive ones who could be a bit better than him, but I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go close.
If you are limited to the exchanges, you can back in the place market and should be able to get 5/1 for 4 places.
In addition to him, I’ve covered a few of the dangers in the Matrix.
Iwilldoit (tho his price has gone very short); the Big Dog and Discordantly.
All 3 have a chance of winning (or blowing out completely !)
Leopardstown
Chacun Pour Soi has be taken out of the 1:10 - meaning that Envoi Allen now only faces 2 rivals…
That actually makes it a better betting race - and Sizing Pottsie has becomes very interesting (as the sole 2 miler in the race).
A price of 5/1 is generous - and he’s worth a risk against 2 rivals, who would both be better over a longer trip.
I like Largey Debut best in the 1:45 - but there is some guesswork involved and therefore a price of 9/4, makes minimal appeal.
He could be top class - but if he’s not then Mighty Potter has enough talent to beat him.
Three Stripe Life also makes a bit of appeal, so on balance, it’s a race best watched.
The 3 horses of main interest, head the betting for the 2:20 - but I thought they would be shorter than there are.
Maybe that means I’ve not quite read things right..!
I like Sea Ducor best, as his hurdle form suggests he could have 10lb in hand of his mark.
However, he disappointed at the Curragh in June - so there is a question mark over him.
I was quite tempted to have a small play on him for the Matrix - but I’ve resisted and will just watch instead…
As with the previous race, I think the right 3 horses are at the head of the betting for the 2:55 - even if I thought they would be shorter prices…
I like Alpha Mix best, as he looked to have been trained with this race in mind (and JP McManus tends to target the race).
He’s the best bet.
However, The Bosses Nephew and Noble Yeats both look big dangers and are worth covering for the Matrix.
Of the outsiders, Birchdale and Augusta Gold are also worth covering.
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