The ground at Cheltenham today, was a bit quicker than I expected - and I reckon that a description of ‘good to soft’, was about right.
With minimal rain expected before racing tomorrow, I suspect we’ll be looking at similar…It looked a little bit slower at Doncaster - but only a touch. Not much rain is expected there before racing gets underway tomorrow - so I’ll again be assuming good to soft ground.
I had half considered covering a couple of the races at Hereford - but I’m optimistic that I’ll be able to find sufficient bets from the 2 main meetings (plus, there are only so many hours in the day !)
Just to confirm, I’ll look to issue the bets from 9:00 tomorrow morning, as usual…
Cheltenham
The first 2 races on the Cheltenham card, aren’t the kind of races that I issue tips in.
For what it’s worth, I think the Skeltons could bag a double, courtesy of Message Personnel and My Drogo…
1:15
This race isn’t on terrestrial TV - but I quite like the look of it.
It’s not impossible that the Skeltons will also take it, courtesy of Amoola Gold.
He’s an admirable horse - who won on his seasonal debut and just got touched off last time.
However, as a result, he now has to run off a career high mark of 152 - whilst he does seem particularly well suited by Ascot.
Editeur du Gite was impressive when winning over the course last time - even tho he ultimately only got home by a neck.
He’s be raised 7lb for his efforts, which at face value, seems a little harsh.
However, the winning margin didn’t reflect his superiority - and he is improving fast.
Tomorrows test represents his stiffest task to date - but he may well be up to it.
Frero Banbou also has a chance.
He disappointed on his seasonal debut, behind Amoola Gold - but ran much better next time, when beaten by Il Ridoto at Newbury.
I suspect that he has a race such as this in him - though he may need softer ground, to bring out his very best.
Cheddleton almost certainly needs very soft ground to be at his best - and possibly half a mile further.
That said, I was very taken by his seasonal debut at Carlisle, which was over 2 miles on good to soft.
He’s clearly a very talented horse - and even with conditions not fully in his favour, he’s hard to dismiss.
Torpillo hasn’t been seen for 2 years - but is potentially thrown in on his novice form.
He beat Mister Fisher at Warwick, prior to finishing fourth in the grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown.
He was sent off 13/8 fav for that race - yet runs off a mark of just 138 tomorrow.
It’ll all depend on how much ability remains - and how ready he is.
But if he’s strong in the market, then the hint should probably be taken.
Bun Doran is another one who could be thrown in.
Rated as high as 160 at his peak - he runs off 137 tomorrow.
The last time he ran off that kind of mark, he bolted up in a similar handicap to tomorrows, over the old course.
He was well behind Editeur de Gite on his comeback run - but a 10lb pull in the weights should get him much closer tomorrow.
1:50
The main event on the card - and it is as competitive as you’d expect !
The logical starting point for the race, is last months Paddy Power Gold cup.
That race was won in impressive style by Midnight Shadow - and whilst he’s been raised 7lb for his efforts, I think he warranted that.
Whether he’ll be able to defy his new mark, remains to be seen - but if he’s in the same form tomorrow, he won’t be far away…
Lalor finished third in the Paddy Power Gold cup, on his debut run for Paul Nichols.
He can be expected to strip a little fitter tomorrow - and on 5lb better terms, he has every chance of reversing the form with the winner.
Whilst Dostal Phil was a further length back in fourth - and also has a good chance, as he’ll be 6lb better off with the winner.
Just as interesting however, is Coole Cody.
He was kicking clear with Midnight Shadow when he fell at the second last.
Like Lalor he will be 5lb better off with Midnight Shadow tomorrow - and that will make things very interesting between the pair.
Zanza and Deyrann de Carjac also ran in the race - and whilst neither featured in the finish, both ran quite well.
Of the pair, I prefer the chance of the latter.
He has been dropped 4lb - but was only beaten 9 lengths and was running on at the finish.
He’s gradually working his way back into form - and based on his form with Midnight Shadow from a couple of years back, is potentially ridiculously well handicapped.
Away from that form line, Silver Hallmark is a young, unexposed horse, who could be well handicapped.
Though how he’ll cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field, remains to be seen.
Beakstown is also potentially well handicapped - though this will be his second run back after an 18 month absence, so there is a possibility that he might ‘bounce’.
Fusil Raffles was a fortunate winner of the Charlie Hall - but a mark of 152 for a grade 2 winner, looks lenient.
He also finished runner up to Chantry House in the Marsh chase at last years festival - and that run puts him right in the mix.
Farinet and Siruh du Lac can both be given half chances - suggesting this is quite an open race !
2:25
This is another race, which is almost a re-run of one from the November meeting - only over 3 furlongs further…
The Ballymore novice hurdle at the November meeting, was won by Blazing Kahl, with Gelino Bello just over 2 lengths back in second - and Current Mood, a further 5 lengths back in third.
All 3 will do battle again tomorrow - and whilst Blazing Kahl will be 5lb worse off with his 2 rivals, I’d expect the form to be confirmed.
That was only his second run over hurdles - and he was very strong at the line, suggesting that he will be suited by tomorrows longer trip.
Unless Blazing Kahl under-performs, then he should prove too good for that pair.
As a consequence, Baroney Legends could provide the sternest opposition.
He was the bloodless winner of a maiden at Lingfield on his hurdling debut - and could literally be anything.
He’ll need to to be pretty good if he’s going to beat Blazing Kahl - but that’s not impossible.
It’s hard to make anything other than speculative cases for the 2 outsiders - so, all things being equal, I would expect Blazing Kahl to win this (which is precisely what the betting says !)…
3:00
Song for Someone won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and must have a very good chance of doubling up tomorrow.
He disappointed on 2 subsequent start in the spring, but looked back close to his best, on his seasonal return at Ascot.
He could only finish second to Buzz that day - but is was still a creditable performance - and on that form, he holds third placed Guard your Dream, who will re-oppose tomorrow on precisely the same terms…
Sceau Royal has a good chance.
He finished fourth to Song for Someone in this race last year - and whilst he meets him on the same terms tomorrow, the likely quicker ground will be in Sceau Royals favour.
He’s an admirable horse on good ground - and assuming that’s what he gets tomorrow, he will be tough to beat.
Ballyadam and Heaven Help Us both come over from Ireland - and I prefer the chance of the latter.
She did us a massive favour at last years Dublin Racing festival - and then followed up in spectacular style by winning the Coral cup over tomorrows course.
She will be dropping back in trip by 5 furlongs tomorrow - which I don’t think is ideal.
However, she doesn’t lack pace, so she may get away with it.
On official adjusted ratings, she has every chance - so it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.
It’ll be an amazing achievement, if Hunters Call can win a grade 2 race as a near 12 year old - and talented as he is, I suspect it will prove too much of an ask.
Similarly, it hard to make a strong case for Wilde About Oscar, who is dropping back in trip, for no obvious reason…
3:35
Trapista heads the early market for the finale, on the back of an impressive win on her UK debut.
However, that was in a relatively weak novice - so it’s impossible to know what the form is worth.
An opening mark of 131 looks harsh enough - and up against more solid rivals, I would expect her price to drift…
Martello Skys form is much harder to crab.
She won a listed race over course and distance in the spring - and whilst that was from a 12lb lower mark, she has since won at Market Rasen and finished fourth in a strong race at Aintree.
She probably hasn’t got much in hand of her current mark - but she sets the race standard.
Indefatigable should set the race standard - but she ran a shocker last time at Newbury and as a result, has a question mark over her.
Prior to that, she won the grade 2 West Yorkshire hurdle - and if she can recapture that form, she will be hard to beat.
Alan King runs 3 in the race - and Wynn House looks the best of them.
She won a decent race on her return at Wincanton - and a 3lb rise for that, looks quite generous.
She may lack a little bit of class for a race of this nature - but to compensate for that, she’s not got much weight to carry.
Midnightreflection looks the best of the outsiders.
She had some fair form last season and ran well enough on her return at Kempton.
If she’s come on for that, she could be up to placing…
Doncaster
2:05
Takeiteasy beat Tommys Oscar at Wetherby in October - yet will face him tomorrow on 6lb better terms.
That's because Tommys Oscar subsequently hacked up in a decent race at Haydock.
He was raised 9lb for that win - whereas Takeiteasy was only raised 2lb for his victory.
The form book says that Takeiteasy must come out on top again - but I’m not quite so sure…
Tommys Oscar is a much more scopey horse - and was making his seasonal debut.
I won’t be hugely surprised if Tommys Oscar reverses the form - though that doesn’t mean he will win !
Sonigino ran really well at Haydock, on his UK debut for Paul Nichols.
It was a novice hurdle, so the form is hard to assess - however, I’d expect him to improve for the run and an opening handicap mark of 128 looks fair.
The ex Paul Nichols inmate, Lucky One, makes his debut for Dan Skelton.
He hacked up in a novice hurdle at Wincanton in February - before disappointing a couple of times, when upped in grade.
If the change of scene sees him recapture his best, then he could be well handicapped off a mark of 137.
That said, he may be at his best, on softer ground than he is likely to encounter tomorrow.
Natural History was second to Lucky One in the Wincanton race - and he then bolted up himself, next time at Lingfield.
That was his first run in a handicap - and off a mark of 116, it wasn’t surprising that he proved well in.
He’s rated 101 on the flat - so even his current mark of 121 should be very lenient.
The issue with him however, is that he’s becoming unreliable.
He twice ran poorly at the back end of last season - and then showed little on his comeback at Lingfield (when well fancied).
The natural ability is definitely there - but coaxing it out is a different matter…
2:40
I’m not a big fan of juvenile hurdles - but I have to admit that this looks an interesting race…
Porticello is the early favourite, on the back of an impressive win at Wetherby on his UK debut.
He was well fancied that day - and didn’t disappoint.
Assuming he’s not gone backwards from that run, he looks the one to beat.
It’s quite interesting, that on his sole run in his native France, Porticello beat Magistrato - and that one re-opposes tomorrow.
He’s now trained by Paul Nichols and followed an impressive win on his UK debut, with a fourth place in a stronger race at Cheltenham.
Whilst he did disappoint in the latter race, the relatively stiff track didn’t seem to help - so he could do better tomorrow, when there will be less emphasis on stamina.
The Cheltenham race was won by Knight Salute, who was completing his hatrick over hurdles.
As with Porticello, he has to carry a 5lb penalty tomorrow - and that should also help Magistrato close the gap…
Prior to Cheltenham, Knight Salute had beaten Impulsive One at Kempton.
The latter was a short priced favourite that day, having won his 2 previous hurdle starts - but he couldn’t hold off the strong finish of Knight Salute.
Impulsive One is 12lb better off with Knight Salute tomorrow - and that really should be enough for him to reverse the form.
It’s also quite interesting that Impulsive One has undergone wind surgery since that race…
Too Friendly is the final one worthy of serious consideration.
He was just about the best of these on the flat - and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He’s not beaten much in either of the hurdle races - but has clearly taken well to the game and has the basic ability to go close tomorrow.
3:15
Twoforgold heads the early market for this - but I suspect that is because he has least question marks against him !
He’s a relatively young horse, who goes well fresh - and he should cope fine with conditions.
He’s only not badly handicapped, on a mark just 1lb higher than when successful at Warwick in February - that said, he could be vulnerable to a well handicapped horse…
Kauto Riko could be such an animal.
He finished fourth in the Paddy Power Gold cup on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and gets in tomorrow, off a mark 4lb lower.
He’s only run once since then - when pulled up at Aintree in the spring.
However, it’s easy enough to excuse a horse a poor run over the big fences.
The main issue with him tomorrow - is the trip and the ground !
He has a preference for soft ground - and is unproven over 3 miles (his best form is over shorter).
There is a chance that the 2 will offset each other (from a stamina perspective) - and he does have a very good record when fresh…
Fidux will have no issue with the ground or the trip - the problem with him is his handicap mark (which looks a few pounds too high).
Jett could be really interesting on his debut for Olly Murphy,
He ran a huge race last time in the Grand National - and races off a mark 5lb lower tomorrow.
I also think that he will be suited by the drop in trip.
It’s all likely to come down to how ready he is to do himself justice.
If he’s strong in the market, I’d be inclined to take the hint.
2:05
Takeiteasy beat Tommys Oscar at Wetherby in October - yet will face him tomorrow on 6lb better terms.
That's because Tommys Oscar subsequently hacked up in a decent race at Haydock.
He was raised 9lb for that win - whereas Takeiteasy was only raised 2lb for his victory.
The form book says that Takeiteasy must come out on top again - but I’m not quite so sure…
Tommys Oscar is a much more scopey horse - and was making his seasonal debut.
I won’t be hugely surprised if Tommys Oscar reverses the form - though that doesn’t mean he will win !
Sonigino ran really well at Haydock, on his UK debut for Paul Nichols.
It was a novice hurdle, so the form is hard to assess - however, I’d expect him to improve for the run and an opening handicap mark of 128 looks fair.
The ex Paul Nichols inmate, Lucky One, makes his debut for Dan Skelton.
He hacked up in a novice hurdle at Wincanton in February - before disappointing a couple of times, when upped in grade.
If the change of scene sees him recapture his best, then he could be well handicapped off a mark of 137.
That said, he may be at his best, on softer ground than he is likely to encounter tomorrow.
Natural History was second to Lucky One in the Wincanton race - and he then bolted up himself, next time at Lingfield.
That was his first run in a handicap - and off a mark of 116, it wasn’t surprising that he proved well in.
He’s rated 101 on the flat - so even his current mark of 121 should be very lenient.
The issue with him however, is that he’s becoming unreliable.
He twice ran poorly at the back end of last season - and then showed little on his comeback at Lingfield (when well fancied).
The natural ability is definitely there - but coaxing it out is a different matter…
2:40
I’m not a big fan of juvenile hurdles - but I have to admit that this looks an interesting race…
Porticello is the early favourite, on the back of an impressive win at Wetherby on his UK debut.
He was well fancied that day - and didn’t disappoint.
Assuming he’s not gone backwards from that run, he looks the one to beat.
It’s quite interesting, that on his sole run in his native France, Porticello beat Magistrato - and that one re-opposes tomorrow.
He’s now trained by Paul Nichols and followed an impressive win on his UK debut, with a fourth place in a stronger race at Cheltenham.
Whilst he did disappoint in the latter race, the relatively stiff track didn’t seem to help - so he could do better tomorrow, when there will be less emphasis on stamina.
The Cheltenham race was won by Knight Salute, who was completing his hatrick over hurdles.
As with Porticello, he has to carry a 5lb penalty tomorrow - and that should also help Magistrato close the gap…
Prior to Cheltenham, Knight Salute had beaten Impulsive One at Kempton.
The latter was a short priced favourite that day, having won his 2 previous hurdle starts - but he couldn’t hold off the strong finish of Knight Salute.
Impulsive One is 12lb better off with Knight Salute tomorrow - and that really should be enough for him to reverse the form.
It’s also quite interesting that Impulsive One has undergone wind surgery since that race…
Too Friendly is the final one worthy of serious consideration.
He was just about the best of these on the flat - and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He’s not beaten much in either of the hurdle races - but has clearly taken well to the game and has the basic ability to go close tomorrow.
3:15
Twoforgold heads the early market for this - but I suspect that is because he has least question marks against him !
He’s a relatively young horse, who goes well fresh - and he should cope fine with conditions.
He’s only not badly handicapped, on a mark just 1lb higher than when successful at Warwick in February - that said, he could be vulnerable to a well handicapped horse…
Kauto Riko could be such an animal.
He finished fourth in the Paddy Power Gold cup on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and gets in tomorrow, off a mark 4lb lower.
He’s only run once since then - when pulled up at Aintree in the spring.
However, it’s easy enough to excuse a horse a poor run over the big fences.
The main issue with him tomorrow - is the trip and the ground !
He has a preference for soft ground - and is unproven over 3 miles (his best form is over shorter).
There is a chance that the 2 will offset each other (from a stamina perspective) - and he does have a very good record when fresh…
Fidux will have no issue with the ground or the trip - the problem with him is his handicap mark (which looks a few pounds too high).
Jett could be really interesting on his debut for Olly Murphy,
He ran a huge race last time in the Grand National - and races off a mark 5lb lower tomorrow.
I also think that he will be suited by the drop in trip.
It’s all likely to come down to how ready he is to do himself justice.
If he’s strong in the market, I’d be inclined to take the hint.
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