Tomorrow sees the final day of the 2 Irish Christmas festivals; whilst they also race at Newbury, Doncaster & Kelso, in the UK.
Once again, the ITV cameras are busy: covering 5 races at Newbury, plus a couple at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.
I’ve previewed all 9 - and am hopeful I’ll be able to find a few bets.
I’ll look to issue at the usual time in the morning (ie. just after 9:00) - tho if the markets are too weak, I’ll delay until 10:30…
Newbury
1:25
This is a relatively low grade race for the track, and there’s a chance that Early du Lemo will outclass his rivals.
He tends to run in better quality races - and the handicapper has given him a real chance tomorrow.
He dropped him a pound for a perfectly creditable run on his seasonal debut, behind One True KIng.
As a result he will is now rated 1lb lower than his last winning mark.
He sets the race standard.
The question is whether any of his rivals are capable of surpassing that level…
Doukarov and Gallic Geordie look the 2 most likely.
The both come into the race on the back of recent wins - and both appear to be improving…
Doukarov won a small field handicap over course and distance on his latest start.
It looks as if connections have figured out how best to ride him - and if they have found the key, then he could easily build on that win.
Gallic Geordie has won his last 2 starts - both at Lingfield.
It remains to be seen whether he will be as effective away from that track - and in a stronger race - but he still has plenty of scope off his current mark.
The Russian Doyen is the most interesting of the outsiders.
I quite fancied him for last seasons Paddy Power gold cup, when he was running off a mark of 138.
He runs off 119 tomorrow - and showed a little more promise last time at Chepstow.
2:00
Masters Legacy sets the standard for this.
He finished runner up in a similar race over course and distance in November - and must have a good chance tomorrow, off a mark 3lb higher.
The question is simply, whether anything in the race can surpass that level…
Beauport looks the most likely.
He bolted up in the EBF final at Sandown in March - and that is always a very strong race.
The runner up, Riggs, finished second in a good handicap at Haydock in November, thereby franking the form.
Beauport himself, finished runner up on his seasonal debut at Sandown - a run that showed distinct promise.
The biggest issue with him, is likely to be his price - as the opening 6/1 is already a very tight 4/1 !
Pounding Poet probably bumped into one at Aintree, when runner up to Tamar Bridge.
All the same, a 5lb rating rise looks a little harsh.
Whilst Dashel Drasher could be the fly in the ointment, off a mark 10lb lower than his chase mark.
He’s also likely to get an uncontested lead, which would definitely help his cause.
Dickie Diver is the final one worthy of a mention, as I suspect he’s a fair bit better than his current mark of 140.
That said, whether he’ll be at his best over 2m4f on his seasonal debut, is a different matter…
2:35
3 unexposed chasers head the betting in this - and there’s a good chance that one of them will come home in front…
The 4 year old Saint Palais is the early favourite - on the back of a very impressive win at Wetherby.
He bolted up that day - and whilst things won’t be as easy for him tomorrow off a 10lb higher mark, he’s clearly a horse on the up.
Gericault Roque is yet to win a chase - tho he’s only had 2 tries.
He ran a fair third on his chasing debut at Wetherby in October: but stepped up significantly on that last time, when runner up to Pats Fancy at Chepstow.
The winner went in again yesterday off - effectively off a 10lb higher mark - so the form looks strong.
Gericault Roque must have every chance off a mark 4lb higher…
Cypto is the most experienced of the trio - even tho he’s only run 3 times over fences !
He won on his final start last season - and ran really well on his seasonal debut at Bangor.
If he’s come on for that run, they he should be right in the mix tomorrow.
Cobolobo looks the most interesting of the exposed runners.
He ran Enqard close at Ascot, last January - and has had excuses for 3 subsequent poor runs.
He’s now down to a mark 4lb lower than at Ascot, so if he’s back in form, he’s handicapped to go well.
Whilst Run to Milans remote fourth to Iwilldoit, looks a lot better in light of the winner taking the Welsh National.
Run to Milan was just in front of Truckers Lodge in that race - and he finished third to Iwilldoit on Monday…
3:05
It’s interesting that Gordon Elliott has brought over Gringo D’aubrelle to run in this - and based on his second to Blazing Kahl at Galway in October, he has a definite chance.
He’s since hacked up in a bumper and won won a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse - so is clearly a talented performer.
The home defence is headed by Stage Star.
He made a big impression when winning a novice hurdle over course and distance last month.
The form itself is not outstanding - but he won with plenty in hand and could be anything.
Lossiemouth sets the form standard, courtesy of his win in a grade 2 at Sandown, earlier this month.
He’s a relentless galloper - who is well suited by soft ground.
All of the others are quite interesting - so a shock isn’t completely out of the question.
Party Business was really impressive when wining at Ascot - and I would expect him to run well - provided he handles the left hand track and the ground isn’t too soft; By contrast, Go Dante would probably appreciated soft underfoot conditions, having disappointed last time on good.
3:35
This is a really interesting looking novice handicap chase, in which most of the runners can be given a chance…
Fern Hill ran really well on his chasing debut when narrowly beaten by Come on Teddy - and it’s no surprise to see him installed the early favourite on the back of that.
Flash Collonges was destroyed by Ahoy Senor on his chasing debut - but the winner is from the top drawer, so there was little shame in that.
Flash Collonges is better judged on his win over hurdles at Kelso last season - and based on that, he definitely has a chance.
Pactrolus was sent off fav for last season NH novice final at Sandown - but was pulled up.
Connections blamed the ground - and as he’d beaten Riggs on his previous start,
and that one finished runner up in the race - he clearly should have gone close.
Valleres ran really well on his chasing debut over this course in November - before disappointing next time at Newcastle.
His jumping let him down that day, so it’s interesting to see that connections reach for cheek pieces tomorrow (presumably to sharpen him up).
Grumpy Charlie racked up a hatrick of hurdles wins last season, before getting outclassed in the supreme hurdle at Cheltenham.
He was well beaten on his chasing debut at Chepstow, but if he’s come on for that, then he would have a chance.
Doncaster
2:50
There could be some serious pace on in this, with Chirico Vallis, Glen Forsa and Kalooki, all liking to front run.
As Chirico Vallis will probably insist on it, the other 2 are likely to have to sit in behind.
In fairness, neither went from the front on their most recent outings - but both did disappoint…
Chirico Vallis made all on his most recent start at Chepstow - and then held on grimly.
He’s been raised 5lb for that effort - but if he gets into a rhythm up front, he could again prove hard to pass.
Oscar Robertson could benefit from a strong pace.
He hacked up last time at Wetherby - and whilst it was a weak race, he did win it very easily.
A mere 4lb rating rise certainly gives him the benefit of the doubt - and he clearly has a chance tomorrow.
Cat Tiger is the other one of major interest.
He was sent off fav for the Grand Sefton on his most recent start - but never really featured.
He’s been dropped 2lb for that, which is generous - and appears to be attractively handicapped (tho it’s hard to say for sure !)
3:20
Zambella and Kapga de Lilly dominate the betting for this - and it’s hard to argue with that.
On official ratings, the pair have at least 10lb in hand of their rivals - so it will be a bit of a shock if one of them doesn’t win.
Choosing between them isn’t easy, as they both come into the race in top form.
Zambella arguably put up a personal best last time, when beating Annie Mac at Aintree; whilst Kapga de Lilly has been impressive in winning both of her starts this season.
The 2m4f trip is likely to be a bear minimum for Kapga de Lilly - and that could swing things in favour of Zambella.
The trip on soft ground should be ideal for her - and although she has to concede 4lb to all of her rivals, she may well be up to the task.
Midnightreferendum looks most likely to chase the principals home - assuming she has fully recovered from a heavy fall at Aintree, last time.
Leopardstown
1:45
This looks a really open race, in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
Vanillier just about heads the market - and if he can run to the level he achieved when winning the Albert Bartlett at last seasons Cheltenham festival, he will be hard to beat.
He’s not quite managed that in his 2 starts so far over fences - but stepping up to 3 miles tomorrow will help him.
Run Wild Fred and On the Ropes have both won good handicaps this season - and set a fair standard.
On the Ropes took the Munster national - and then finished fourth in the Ladbrokes trophy; whilst Run Wild Fred hacked up in the Troytown.
In truth, neither was a grade 1 performance - however, both horses have plenty of scope for improvement.
Bacardys has been a borderline grade 1 performer over hurdles in the past - and put up a really good effort when chasing home Bob Olinger at Gowran.
His previous attempts at chasing haven’t been too successful - but there was definite promise in his most recent run.
If he can repeat that, then he could well be in the mix.
Fury Road has also been a borderline grade 1 performer over hurdles - and he’s also run well on his 2 chase starts this season.
However, there is a doubt concerning his stamina over 3 miles…
2:20
It’s hard to look beyond Sharjah in this…
He’s won the last 3 runnings of the race - and looked as good as ever when taking the grade 1 Morgianna at Punchestown last month.
He destroyed Zanahiyr and Echoes of Rain that day - and it’s hard to see why either would reverse the form tomorrow.
The fact that they are second and third favs, does make Sharjah look a bit of a good thing…
It is possible to make a bit of a case for Echoes of Rain, as she was making her seasonal debut that day - and did look as if she would improve for the run.
She was a big improver last season - and had threatened to make up in a Champion hurdle contender, so it’s maybe premature to write her off after one disappointing run.
That said, she has got 15 lengths to make up on Sharjah - who was also making his seasonal debut and will be racing under his ideal conditions tomorrow.
If she does manage to beat him, then Honeysuckle had better watch out !
The other 3 runners make minimal appeal - so it really does look Sharjahs race for the taking…
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