Best bets
Fairyhouse3:50
Santa Rossa 0.5pt win 13/2
Matrix bets
Fairyhouse
5:00
Full Time Score 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11
Farclas 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 11
Ten Ten 1 unit win CEP 42 FP 21
Frontal Assault 1 unit win CEP 26 FP 21
Velvet Elvis 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 17
Enjoy D’Allen 1 unit win CEP 27 FP 26
5:00
Full Time Score 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11
Farclas 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 11
Ten Ten 1 unit win CEP 42 FP 21
Frontal Assault 1 unit win CEP 26 FP 21
Velvet Elvis 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 17
Enjoy D’Allen 1 unit win CEP 27 FP 26
From what I can tell, there wasn’t much more rain at
Fairyhouse yesterday - and there’s not much forecast for today.
As a consequence, I would expect the ground to be riding similar to yesterday (ie. yielding/soft).
In truth, Irish racing doesn’t really lend itself to betting, with bookmakers taking particularly defensive stances - and most of the markets, very fragile.
That wasn’t the only issue today - as of the 4 races I previewed, I could only find an angle into 2 of them...
As a consequence, there is just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few for the Matrix in the National.
Here’s the thinking…
Fairyhouse
Carrig Sam is by far the most likely winner of the 3:15 - but I’m not going to suggest backing a 10/3 fav in a 16 runner handicap.
You can get 4/1 on the exchanges, and that doesn’t strike me as a dreadful bet - though equally, it’s not an outstanding one.
At a bigger price, Folcano is a credible alternative - though Gordon Elliott also saddles Festival D’ex and that one seems quite popular in the betting.
Of the outsiders, Futurum Regem is moderately interesting - but officially this is just a watching race.
The 3:50 looks relatively open - and it’s worth taking a risk that Santa Rossa can show the required improvement to win.
She’s very lightly raced - but has consistently shown good form and has plenty of scope for further improvement.
It is a bit irritating that Pricewise has picked up on her, as that has probably shaved a couple of points off her price.
However, 6/1 is still a reasonable price in a race that may not take a lot of winning.
Provided he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions, then Janidil should prove different class to his rivals in the 4:20.
His second pace in the Ryanair puts him head and shoulders above the other runners in the race, so he will need to under-perform if one of them is to win.
If that does happen, then Blackbow is the one most likely to take advantage - but the market tells you all of this, so there is no betting angle.
It’s another watching race…
I’ve taken half a dozen against the field in the Irish National (5:00) - and hopefully one of them will come home in front !
If any horse is going to run away with the race, then I think it will be Full Time Score - though it is just as likely that he will blow out !
I would expect Farclas to run his race and go very close.
There is a slight concern that he might not be quite well enough handicapped to win - but I certainly expect him to be right in the mix.
I think Ten Ten is probably the best bet in the race, at around 40.
He looked the right type for this race, at the back end of last season - and it strikes me that he has been targeted at the race, this time round.
Frontal Assault looks to be one of Gordon Elliotts better chances of winning the race - and I’m surprised he’s not shorter in the betting.
His form gives him every chance - whilst the market support he received last time at Cheltenham, suggests connections think he is well handicapped.
Velvet Elvis a potential big improver. He has question marks over him - but was very impressive on his most recent start and if he can build on that, he could well go close.
Enjoy D’Allen is the final one for the Matrix.
I nearly left him out - but I quite fancied him at Aintree and I’m not prepared to give Sods Law the opportunity to bite me !
As a consequence, I would expect the ground to be riding similar to yesterday (ie. yielding/soft).
In truth, Irish racing doesn’t really lend itself to betting, with bookmakers taking particularly defensive stances - and most of the markets, very fragile.
That wasn’t the only issue today - as of the 4 races I previewed, I could only find an angle into 2 of them...
As a consequence, there is just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few for the Matrix in the National.
Here’s the thinking…
Fairyhouse
Carrig Sam is by far the most likely winner of the 3:15 - but I’m not going to suggest backing a 10/3 fav in a 16 runner handicap.
You can get 4/1 on the exchanges, and that doesn’t strike me as a dreadful bet - though equally, it’s not an outstanding one.
At a bigger price, Folcano is a credible alternative - though Gordon Elliott also saddles Festival D’ex and that one seems quite popular in the betting.
Of the outsiders, Futurum Regem is moderately interesting - but officially this is just a watching race.
The 3:50 looks relatively open - and it’s worth taking a risk that Santa Rossa can show the required improvement to win.
She’s very lightly raced - but has consistently shown good form and has plenty of scope for further improvement.
It is a bit irritating that Pricewise has picked up on her, as that has probably shaved a couple of points off her price.
However, 6/1 is still a reasonable price in a race that may not take a lot of winning.
Provided he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions, then Janidil should prove different class to his rivals in the 4:20.
His second pace in the Ryanair puts him head and shoulders above the other runners in the race, so he will need to under-perform if one of them is to win.
If that does happen, then Blackbow is the one most likely to take advantage - but the market tells you all of this, so there is no betting angle.
It’s another watching race…
I’ve taken half a dozen against the field in the Irish National (5:00) - and hopefully one of them will come home in front !
If any horse is going to run away with the race, then I think it will be Full Time Score - though it is just as likely that he will blow out !
I would expect Farclas to run his race and go very close.
There is a slight concern that he might not be quite well enough handicapped to win - but I certainly expect him to be right in the mix.
I think Ten Ten is probably the best bet in the race, at around 40.
He looked the right type for this race, at the back end of last season - and it strikes me that he has been targeted at the race, this time round.
Frontal Assault looks to be one of Gordon Elliotts better chances of winning the race - and I’m surprised he’s not shorter in the betting.
His form gives him every chance - whilst the market support he received last time at Cheltenham, suggests connections think he is well handicapped.
Velvet Elvis a potential big improver. He has question marks over him - but was very impressive on his most recent start and if he can build on that, he could well go close.
Enjoy D’Allen is the final one for the Matrix.
I nearly left him out - but I quite fancied him at Aintree and I’m not prepared to give Sods Law the opportunity to bite me !
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