Review of the weekend (Apr 16th-18th)

 The focus for the penultimate weekend of the TVB season, was supposed to be on the 3 day Fairyhouse Easter carnival. However, finding bets was difficult - so much so, that I didn’t even bother trying on Saturday !

Instead, my attention was on Haydock, where it was the Challenger series finals day - and a series of quality handicaps, provided some decent opportunities.

I tried finding some bets at Fairyhouse on Sunday - but failed ! So it was Monday (Irish National day) before I was finally able to suggest anything there…


Saturday

I was almost spoilt for choice, with regard to possible bets at Haydock - though I was very mindful of how weak the early markets were…

That’s the issue with tipping in anything other than the biggest races - prices go almost instantly, meaning that people are forced to take below the odds, wait and hope there’s a drift - or have to miss out completely…

I ended up suggesting a couple of Best bets - and whilst they were both in races where the market wasn’t totally robust, I felt that their prices were ‘fair’ (so would rebound, even if they initially shortened).

The first of them was Lime Drop in the mares hurdle.

I liked her profile as a progressive mare, with a really good attitude - and approaching the second last, it looked as if she was going to win.
However, she couldn’t quicken past leaders who weren’t slowing - and ultimately she could only manage an honourable fourth.

However, there was a consolation, as the race was won by Cubswin - and as I considered her the main danger to Lime Drop, I covered her for the Matrix.
She led throughout - and whilst I thought she might get reeled in after the last, she was ultra game and battled all the way to the line.
It was pleasing change of fortune for the Matrix, which has had a number of big priced runners-up recently.
Cubsin bucked that trend, winning with a BSP of 44 (she was actually trading at 60, just a couple of mins before the off).

Deyrann de Carjac was the second Best bet of the day.
I’d had him in mind for the the Middle distance chase final, since February - and with him finally getting ideal conditions, he should have taken a lot of beating.

However, my enthusiasm for him was tempered by the fact that his trainer, Alan King, also saddled 2 other runners in the race - and stable jockey, Tom Cannon, was on board Isolate…

That gave me a dilemma - but when Dayrann drifted to 8/1, I took the plunge and suggested him, covering on Isolate for the Matrix.

However, the race panned out disappointingly…

Deyrann is clearly not the horse he once was, as his jumping was unconvincing - and it was obvious from some way out, that he wasn’t going to win.

By contrast, Isolate travelled strongly - but he wasn’t able to raise him game up the home straight, and ultimately finished well beaten…

I couldn’t get the prices I was after on a couple of other fancies on the card, so the remaining bets on the days, were relatively small ones for the Matrix.

The first of them was Castel Gandolfo - and I suspect he should have won.
Certainly, he was travelling like the winner, approaching the last - and I was optimistic when he hit the front, soon after that obstacle.
However, he didn’t seem keen to run on - and Zabeel Champion battled back to beat him.
With a BSP of 27, it was another frustrating near miss for the Matrix.
Grosvenor Court was a speculative suggestion in the stayers hurdle - but he never really featured.
The race was won by favourite, An Tailliur, who I would have been keen to at least cover on, if he’d been any kind of price in the morning (he wasn’t - though did subsequently drift).
Maid O Malley was the final bet on the day - but she ran disappointingly.
In fairness, that was always a possibility, after a hard race (and fall !) at Cheltenham.
The price was there to justify a risk in the morning (5/1) - but she had been backed in to 7/2 at the off (and I could have resisted that !)


Monday

The Fairyhouse races on Sunday, had the wrong shapes for betting - and whilst they weren’t significantly better on Monday, I did manage to find some opportunities.

They included Santa Rossa, who I felt was worth a risk in the Grade 2 hurdle.

She had quite a bit to find on the book - but she also had a very progressive profile and at an opening show of 10/1, I felt she was worth risking.
That price became 8/1 when Pricewise tipped her - and 6/1, when second favourite, Flame Bearer was withdrawn.

That was the point at which I was able to tip her - and I felt she just about warranted support, up against a favourite who had question marks over him, on the likely quick ground.
However, he was withdrawn half an hour before the race - and all of a sudden, Santa Rossa was favourite !

Whilst the withdrawals were never going to harm her chances, I suggested her mainly as a ‘value’ play - and by the off, there was no value in a price of 3/1 !
In fairness, that wouldn’t have stopped her from winning, if she had been good enough - but unfortunately, she was no match for Darasso.
He was the from pick in the race - but looked potentially vulnerable.
However, everything fell right for him - and ultimately he proved a bit too strong for Santa Rossa.

The only other bets on the day, were in the Irish National - where I took half a dozen against the field (of 27).

And a couple of them ran really well - most notably, Frontal Assault.
He was up with the pace throughout - but so too was Lord Lariot - and it was the latter who ultimately proved the stronger.
I did have a good look at the winner pre-race - but there was nothing in his form that suggested he would be good enough.
He was sent off at 40/1 - though I suspect that if his trainer hadn’t saddled the 150/1 winner of the race 12 months ago, he would have been nearer that price himself !
Velvet Elvis was the other Matrix bet to run well in the race.
He looked to have every chance between the final 2 fences - before his stamina ebbed away…

So once, again, across the weekend, the Matrix managed twice as many seconds, as winners.
I did hope that the balance might be about to right itself, when Cubswin won - but a couple of long priced runners up, stopped that from happening.

There’s now just one more day for things to level up - so I’m expecting the Matrix to get at least 10 winners on Saturday :)

TVB.