Checking the weather forecast last Sunday, the prediction was for a lot of rain during the week - and there was a distinct possibility that we’d be looking at a heavy ground Grand National.
However, come Wednesday evening, very little rain had materialised - and as a consequence, the Clerk of the course took the decision to water.With the forecast still predicting rain for Thursday and Friday, that looked a risky move - and certainly made it tricky, committing to bets early…
The fields across the meeting, generally stood up well - though the age old dilemma remained: whether to side with horses that had been targeted at Aintree - or with those that had run at Cheltenham, just 3 weeks earlier…
Thursday
Whilst at least a couple of the conditions races on the day were reasonably competitive, the markets were tight and finding a Best bet, wasn’t easy.
I ended up siding with Eldorado Allen in the feature race of the day, the Betway bowl.
He had run at Cheltenham in the Ryanair - and run really well.
I was optimistic, that as a young horse, he would have fully recovered from the race - but I suspect that wasn’t the case...
Certainly, he ran disappointingly - fading out of things as soon as pressure was applied.
I knew such a scenario was possible and therefore also covered Kemboy for the Matrix.
He had been targeted at the meeting - and whilst he may not be as good as he once was, I felt that he retained sufficient ability to go close.
And he ran a fair race - leading to the third last, before being put in his place by Clan des Obeaux.
He was another one who had missed Cheltenham and been targeted at the race - and I could easily have covered on him.
However, his price was a bit short in the morning (though it did drift in the run up to the race).
The remaining bets on the day were all for the Matrix - and they suffered mixed fortunes…
In the opening race of the meeting, I sided with War Lord - and he ran well, but was no match for the revitalised Millers Bank.
The winner had run poorly in a couple of chases this season - and whilst he ran better on his most recent outing, he did appear held by Pic D’Orhy.
However, he bounced back to form (and beyond !), with a really impressive performance - comprehensively reversing the form with Pic D’Orhy and proving much too strong for his other rivals.
In the Aintree hurdle, I took on the favourites, Epatante and Zanahiyr, with Monmiral and Glory and Fortune.
However, that was a mistake !
The market leaders had the race between them, approaching the last - and whilst a fall by Zanahiyr gifted the race to Epatante, she probably would have won regardless.
Monmiral plugged on to take a remote second - but he wasn’t in the same parish as the winner…
I narrowed the Foxhunters down to the 4 horses who filled the places in last years renewal - along with the favourite, Jett.
I covered 2 of the 4 for the Matrix (Cousin Pascal and Clondaw Westie) - along with Jett.
I honestly thought Jett would take a world of beating - but he was a late drifter (rarely a good sign) - and was soon in trouble.
By contrast, Clondaw Westie and Cousin Pascal both ran well - but the former got the Canal turn wrong and that was that; whilst the latter made a bad mistake at the fourth last, which effectively put pay to his chance.
The finish was fought out by Latenightpass and Cat Tiger - the other 2 placed horses from last years renewal.
Fine lines…
The final bets of the day were in the Red Rum handicap chase.
As I couldn’t be sure how the ground would be riding - I chose to spread risk across horses with differing going requirements (from good to soft)…
Rain during the afternoon, meant the ground was on the soft side, by the time the race got underway - and that really suited The Last Day, who came home a comfortable winner.
3 of the other suggested bets didn’t do so well: with Thyme White falling, Elixir de Nutz pulling up and Bold Enough finishing well beaten.
King D’Argent was the remaining bet in the race - and he ran really well to finish fifth, on ground that wouldn’t have suited him.
He will be of interest, if he gets another chance (on better ground) before the end of the season…
Friday
With no rain since late the previous afternoon, I didn’t expect the ground to be riding any worse on Friday - but was surprised by how much quicker it was…
That should have suited Saint Calvados, who I made the sole Best bet on the day, in the Melling chase.
I was quite keen to take on favourite, Fakir Doudaries: not because I thought he didn’t have a good chance - but simply because I felt he was much too short in what looked quite a competitive contest.
However, things didn’t work out for Saint Calvados, as he was far too keen in the early stages - and had nothing left to give, when the race got going in earnest.
I also covered Mister Fisher for the Matrix, but his jumping let him down and he was pulled up, soon after half way.
Approaching the second last, it looked as if Saint Calvados’s stablemate, Hitman, was going to win - but Fakir Doudaries showed better staying power and forged clear of him, on the run to the final fence.
The days other bets were all for the Matrix - and again, they suffered mixed fortunes..
The opening race looked particularly strong - and I ended up with 5 for the Matrix.
The main fancy was Politese - but she ran an odd race. Up with the pace early, she then fell back through the field - before trying (and ultimately failing !) to run on late.
I had a sneaking fancy for Navajo Pass - but he already looked beaten when falling at the seventh hurdle.
Highway one o two and Peking Rose were two other selections - and whilst they ran OK, neither threatened to win.
That wasn’t the case with the final selection however…
Fil Doudaries tanked through the race - and would have been a very comfortable winner, if not for Langer Dan.
He was one that I’d put up at Cheltenham, but he was brought down at the second hurdle.
However, he made amends here, travelling strongly throughout - and finding too much for Fil Doudaries, in the closing stages.
Frustrating !
I sided with 4 in the Topham.
Riders onthe Storm and Tamaroc du Mathan, never really featured - but Pink Eyed Pedro ran well to finish an honourable fifth.
However, he didn’t run anywhere near as well as Mac Totttie.
He was my main fancy in the race - but his price had crashed by the time I was able to suggest him.
Fearful that it might go even lower, I kept stakes to a minimum - but instead he drifted out to a reasonable price - and absolutely hacked up !
It’s not often you see a horse pulling for its head, approaching the second last - but he was. And when given it, he surged clear for an impressive victory…
In the staying novice hurdle, I was keen to take on the favourites - and sided with 4 relative outsiders…
Bold Endeavour pulled up lame early - but the other 3 all ran big races…
The quickening ground wouldn’t have suited Fair Frontieres - but he still ran well to finished sixth.
That was ahead of Bowtogreatness - though he ran the better race, still looking to have every a chance turning in, before weakening late on.
However, Gentleman at Arms was the one that got away (technically, the second one to get away on the day !).
He ran a massive race - and look set to win when jumping into the lead at the second last last.
However, he couldn’t withstand the challenge of Gelino Bello, who ultimately won comfortably.
The real frustration with Gentleman at Arms was a BSP of 40. Those kind of odds make a big difference to the P&L.
In the final race of the day, I sided with a couple for the Matrix.
However, both Gipsy de Choisel and Whizz Kid ran too freely - and ultimately paid the price.
The latter looked the best horse in the race - and did well to finish fourth.
If he settles down a bit, he can almost certainly prove himself much better than his current rating.
Saturday
It had been a struggle to find a Best bet on both Thursday and Friday - but I found it impossible on Saturday…
The nature of the races: 3 big field handicaps, and 3 conditions races - all with short prices favourites - didn’t lend themselves to strong bets.
As a consequence, I just deployed the Matrix - in all 3 handicaps - and in one of the conditions races…
The first bets to run were in the opening handicap, in which I took 3 against the field.
And one of them came good - with Party Business, a gritty winner.
That looked a very unlikely result turning in, as he was already under pressure.
However, he is clearly a horse with abundant stamina, as he just kept finding up the home straight, fending off Ilikedwayurthinkin, after the last.
The other 2 selections - Serious Charges and If the Cap Fits - never really featured - but thankfully that didn’t matter !
The next bet was Stage Star in the novice hurdle.
He led from the off, but was always doing to much - and was beaten when passed, jumping the second last.
The race was won by Three Stripe Life - who stood out on form - and was surprisingly easy to back.
With Scene not Heard a NR, there were just 2 selections in the handicap chase.
Shan Blue was a very obvious one - and unlike Three Stripe Life, I didn’t ignore him !
The Hollow Ginge was more speculative, as I wasn’t sure he quite had the class, However, he did have a very good handicap mark !
In the race itself, Shan Blue travelled like the well handicapped horse he almost certainly is - but had no response, when Sam Brown powered past him after jumping the second last.
I have to admit that I ignored the winner, as I kind of expected him to be withdrawn on account of the ground.
He wasn’t - and won like the good horse he has always threatened to be.
Meanwhile The Hollow Ginge, started near the back - and never improved his position much..!
And so it came down to the Grand National.
Initially, I was very keen on Escaria Ten - but on closer examination of the field, I cooled a little on him.
Part of the reason, was because I warmed to Longhouse Poet - and I ended up suggesting them both - along with Enjoy Dallen, Burrow Saint and Freewheelin Dylan.
Enjoy Dallen fell at the first - which was a blow.
Next to go, was Burrow Saint - and I do think that was a real shame.
He was travelling with conspicuous ease, when making a mistake at the Chair and decanting Paul Townend.
I suspect he would have been involved at the business end.
The other 3 all were.
Rounding the home turn, they were part of a group of 5, who were a couple of lengths ahead of the chasing pack.
However, they had all done a bit too much, too soon - and they each weakened out of things after jumping the second last.
Longhouse Poet ultimately did best of the trio, in finishing sixth (he travelled like a class horse); with Freewheelin Dylan one place behind and Escaria Ten back in ninth.
As for the winner, Noble Yeats - then not only did he not make my short list, he wouldn’t have made my long list, almost regardless of how long it had been !
And so ended another festival.
A bit like Cheltenham, it was slightly disappointing, if not disastrous.
2 losing Best bets, were an indicator of the lack of decent of opportunities; and whilst the Matrix hit 3 winners, it also had 5 runners up.
That was roughly the same ratio as at Cheltenham - and similar to the way things have run, pretty much all season long…
Gentleman at Arms was a particularly painful one - accepting that these things happen…
So just 2 weekends of the season now remain - not long for the luck to turn !
TVB.
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