It’s the final day of the 3 day Easter festival at Fairyhouse - with the main event, the Irish Grand National.
After a drying day yesterday, the decision was made to water the course in the evening - and then, in accordance with Sods Law, the rain arrived this afternoon..!
In fairness, conditions didn’t look too bad - with the ground appearing to be on the soft side.
However, if any more rain falls, then we could could be looking at an Irish National run on heavy - which wouldn’t be ideal.
Ofcourse, if no further rain materialises, the ground could be back close to good, by the time the big race gets underway !
It’s exactly the same situation, as the one we faced on the first day at Aintree - and it makes committing to bets early, decidedly tricky…
Obviously I’ll try and get a handle on things tomorrow morning before I issue any bets - but it’s a variable I could do without…
ITV will be showing 4 races from the course tomorrow - here are my early thoughts on each of them.
Fairyhouse
3:15
A field of 17 will go to post for this - and Carrig Sam stands out…
He won a similar race over the course at the end of February - on what was only his second run under rules
That was some effort - but he was very well backed that day, so clearly connections felt he was a well handicapped horse.
Ofcourse, there was always a danger that his inexperience might betray him - but it didn’t, and he made most for a comfortable win.
The handicapper has raised him 8lb for the win - but I doubt that will stop him and he very much looks the one to beat.
4 of the horses that finished behind him that day, re-oppose tomorrow, and at the revised weights, they all have a chance of beating him…
Of the quartet, the market likes Festival D’ex best.
He finished sixth behind Carrig Sam - but went on from that to finish runner up to Maxs Charm at Naas.
That was improved form - but he got a 3lb rating rise for it, so will only be 5lb better off with Carrig Sam tomorrow.
As a consequence, Decimation could be the one most likely to reverse the form.
He will be 8lb better off for a 6 length beating - and was also making his seasonal debut that day.
He’s since taken a heavy fall in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham - and will be wearing first time cheek pieces tomorrow.
That’s quite a lot of variables to consider - and I’m not entirely sure how things will work out !
Away from that form line, Folcano looks quite interesting, on the back of a fair seventh in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham.
He may well appreciate the drop back in trip - and it will be no surprise if he runs a big race.
3:50
The first of two Grade 2s on the card - this is the more competitive event…
Thedevilscoachman has been installed quite a short priced favourite, on the back of a narrow win in a similar race at Navan in February.
In fairness, he won that race well - but may have been helped by the heavy ground (which he may - or may not - get again tomorrow !).
It looks significant that Mark Walsh has opted to ride him ahead of Darasso.
Both horses are owned by JP McManus (who retains Walsh), and Darasso arguably sets the standard for the race.
He’s a very consistent horse, and his official rating of 153 suggests he should be the one to beat.
The fact that Walsh has deserted him, definitely enhances the claims of Thedevilscoachman.
Flame Bearer is hard to assess.
He’s a novice, with only 5 previous runs over hurdles - so it’s a little surprising that connections are pitching him into open company.
He has won grade 2 races on his 2 most recent starts - but he could find tomorrows race a bit tougher…
The 2 mares in the race are both interesting, in receipt of weight from their rivals.
Heaven Help Us in the more exposed of the pair - and has regularly shown herself to be of a standard that could see her at least placing.
Santa Rossa is much less exposed - and consequently harder to assess.
She has only run twice in the past 2 seasons - but won both races comfortably and really could be anything.
Jon Snow is another who could be anything.
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - but had a massive home reputation, early in his career.
That said, the fact that Paul Townend has chosen to ride Whisky Sour ahead of him, hardly advertises his claims - particularly as the last named looks held by Darasso.
Darver Star is the final one worthy of a mention.
He was hugely disappointing last time (when I made him a Best bet) - but that could have been down to quick ground.
If he gets soft (or even heavy) ground tomorrow - and bounces back, then he has the form to be right in the mix.
4:20
If he can again run to the same level as when chasing home Allaho in last months Ryanair chase, then Janidil will win this.
In fairness, that run wasn’t unexpected.
He won the grade 1 novice event at this meeting 12 months ago, and has consistently shown top class form in the intervening period.
The main question, is how much he took out of himself at Cheltenham - and unfortunately, we won’t know the answer to that, until it’s too late…
In addition to Janidil, Willie Mullins also trains the next 3 in the betting - and I never find that an appealing situation.
Jockey bookings suggest that Blackbow should be the one most likely to benefit if Janidil under-performs - and I would just about agree with that.
That said, based on official ratings, he has a few pounds to find with stablemate Easy Game - and if Paul Townend has elected to ride him, I would probably have taken the hint !
The fact he is on Blackbow however, suggests that Easy Game may need the run - whilst softening ground certainly won’t be in his favour…
The other 3 runners are all getting a bit long in the tooth.
Hardline looks just about the most interesting of the trio - but it’ll be a surprise if he proves good enough to win.
5:00
This is the third National that I’ve analysed in the past fortnight - so I should be getting the hang of it !
As always, I’ll start by pulling together a short-list - and look to use that to identify some bets tomorrow…
First on the short-list is Full Time Score.
He ran well at Limerick over Christmas (when I made him a Matrix bet) - and followed that up with a gutsy win at Fairyhouse in February.
He’s not absolutely guaranteed to see out tomorrows trip - and he would probably prefer some cut in the ground - but he has loads of potential and could be very well handicapped.
Farclas is more exposed - and isn’t outstandingly well handicapped.
However, his fifth place in last years Aintree Grand National, suggested this could be the perfect race for him - whilst the booking of Shane Fitzgerald, effectively puts him on a mark from which he should go very close.
I put Enjoy D’Allen in my Matrix for the Aintree National - but he unseated at the first fence.
At least that meant he didn’t have a hard race - and off the same mark, he has to be included on the short-list for this weaker race.
Lieutenant Command is not guaranteed to stay the trip - but if he does, he has form which suggests he could go very close.
He beat Max Flamingo and Floueur in a Beginners chase in November - and is weighted to confirm the form with both of them tomorrow.
He’s not shown too much in his 3 subsequent starts - though was still in with a chance when departing at the second last on his most recent start, in a hot handicap at Naas.
Frontal Assault disappointed on his most recent start, when well fancied for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
Prior to that, he had been narrowly beaten by Floueur and will be 4lb better off tomorrow.
It also looks significant that Jack Kennedy takes the ride (suggesting at least, that he is one of the more fancied of Gordon Elliotts 11 runners !)
Mark Walsh takes the ride on Ten Ten, suggesting that he is one of the more fancied JP McManus runners (he has 8 in the race !).
He looked the perfect sort for this race, when finishing runner up on his final start last season, at the Punchestown festival - and whilst he was pulled up on his first 2 runs of this campaign, his most recent second over hurdles, suggested that he retains all his ability.
Velvet Elvis put up a much improved effort on his most recent start, when raised in trip at Navan.
He’s only 6 - and has limited chasing experiences - but also has plenty of scope for improvement.
Midlands National winner, Screaming Colours, looks quite interesting off a fair mark, with Jamie Codd booked; whilst Ronald Pump also has to be of interest based on his hurdles form - and ran well over fences when runner up on his most recent start.
Favourite, Gaillard du Mesnil is another who clearly has a chance - though I’d be a little worried about his jumping, in such a big field…
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