In all my years running TVB, this is the first time I’ve officially covered the Scottish Grand National meeting !
In fact, I can never recall it taking place prior to the Aintree Grand National, so the situation may well be unprecedented…I don't know exactly how it has come about - I read something about it being due to when Easter falls - but I’m sure Easter must have fallen at a similar point, some time in the last 50 years !
Anyway, I will have a new experience, previewing the meeting - as I will have a new experience previewing the final meeting of the season, at Sandown, in a couple of weeks time !
Let’s hope I can respond positively to the challenges
Figuring out the state of the ground isn’t going to be quite as easy as I’d hoped.
The changeable weather, has put a slight question mark over conditions - both at Ayr and Newbury - though the fact they are racing at both venues today, should help me assess things (assuming they don’t water after racing !).
Here are my early thoughts on the televised races from both tracks…
Ayr
1:15
The card opens with a tight looking 10 runner handicap, in which most of the field can be given a chance.
That said, 2 of them (Dubai Days & Coach Carter) are running at Ayr today, so they may well be withdrawn from this race (though there is a possibility that they will run again).
Sebastapol is the obvious market leader, following his impressive last time out win at Kempton.
He’s a talented - if quirky - horse, so it was no surprise to see him dot up, under ideal conditions.
Tomorrow, he will face a bigger field, possibly on softer ground - and off an 8lb higher mark.
He has the ability to win again - but an early price of 9/4, tempers betting appeal…
He also faces some fair opponents, headed by Malystic.
He ran well at this meeting last year, when second to Allmankind in the graded novice chase.
He’s only run once since then, when unseating at Doncaster in the race won by Bun Doran.
It was too far out to say whether he would have been involved in the finish that day - but he certainly wasn't beaten at the time, and off a 2lb lower mark, he must have a chance.
Dubai Days had Gold des Bois well behind, when winning at Kelso last time - and off just a 3lb higher mark, would also have a good chance (assuming he runs).
Gold des Bois also shouldn’t be dismissed on the back of that one poor run.
He had previously been very consistent, and if he bounces back, could easily run a big race.
He is closely weighted with Some Reign, on their run at Musselburgh in October.
Some Reign has only run once since then, when finishing last behind Cormier over hurdles at Kelso last month.
However, that was probably a pipe opener - and if it has put an edge on him, he could well outrun his odds.
Sao is the final one worthy of a mention.
He is also returning from a winter break - but would have a chance on the form he showed when runner up at Aintree in November.
1:50
If anything, this race looks even tighter - with all 8 runners seeming to have a chance.
Dusart heads the betting - but that is mainly due to his connections/reputation.
He was considered top class, as a novice hurdler last season - and finished a fair third in the grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree in the spring.
He’s also won 2 of his 3 races over fences - but wasn’t particularly impressive on either occasion - and had a hard enough race last time, when well beaten behind L’Homme Presse, at Cheltenham.
He could be a fair bit better than his opening mark of 147 - though it’s no more than fair, based on his chase runs.
Sounds Russian is a fast improver.
He won off a mark of 111 at Sedgefield in December - but will be running off a mark of 145 tomorrow !
Since his opening win, he has dotted up twice at Kelso - but this represents a steep class rise.
It’s anyones guess, whether he will be up to it…
Doyen Breed has been very consistent this season - and he looks fairly weight on a mark 141.
I’ll be surprised if he’s not there, or thereabouts…
The Golden Rebel has done well over fences this season - and could have scope to improve further.
Again, he’s not easy to get a handle on, but a mark of 133 looks workable, whilst a step up in trip, may well see an improved performance.
Lord Accord, I K Brunel and Striking a Pose can all be given a chance.
That said, all 3 are relatively exposed, having already run in multiple handicap chases (thereby enabling the assessor to accurately judge their marks).
Of the 3, I K Brunel looks to have the most potential for improvement - even though he’s the oldest !
That said, Striking a Pose could certainly be of interest, if his most recent run at Newbury is ignored (and he may not have stayed the trip that day, in soft ground).
2:25
This is yet another tight handicap - in which cases can be made for most of the runners…
Milkwood was a convincing winner of the race 12 months ago - but off an 8lb higher mark tomorrow, with a far from ideal preparation, he looks vulnerable.
He’s only run twice in the interim: on the first occasion, he was an excellent second in the Galway hurdle - but he then disappointed over fences at Uttoxeter, early in October.
He has probably been kept away from the winter ground on purpose - but even so, this is a tough race to return in, after 6 months off the track.
He should also have his work cut out to beat Anna Bunina.
She finished runner up to him in last years race, but will be 13lb better off tomorrow, for a 4 length beating.
She’s not been in great form this winter - but I would expect to see a much improved effort tomorrow, with spring now in the air…
In pure handicapping terms, Anna Bunina is very much the one to beat, as she is also 15lb better off with Socialist Agenda for a beating of 6 lengths at Musselburgh on her most recent start.
Again, at the adjusted weights, she should be able to reverse the form…
West Cork and Onemorefortheroad head the market - and it’s easy enough to make a case for both of them.
West Cork won a red hot Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham in November - and ran really well on his most recent start when fourth in the County hurdle.
The concern with him is that was just 15 days ago, and he’s a horse who appears best fresh…
Onemorefortheroad has also been running well in very strong handicaps - and there is no reason why he won’t do so again tomorrow (the question is simply, whether he is sufficiently well handicapped to win).
Voix de Reve is the most interesting of the outsiders.
I made him a Best bet when he finished fifth to Cormier on his penultimate outing at Kelso - and he won on his most recent start, in a lesser race at Newcastle.
He’s another one who I would expect to run very well - it’s just a case of whether he will be good enough to win…
3:00
Despite its Grade 2 status, the calibre of horses contesting this race, is no better than those in the novice handicap earlier on the card (1:50).
However, with just the 5 runners, the race is significantly less competitive…
On adjusted handicap ratings, Do Your Job, is the best horse in the race - and I would make him the most likely winner.
He was a very useful novice hurdler, last season - and he’s shown himself just as good over fences, in 5 runs this term.
His 10 length second to Edwardstone at Kempton over Christmas, is arguably the best form on offer; whilst his last time out win at Newcastle, shows that he will have no issue with tomorrows 2m4f trip.
He sets the race standard.
Minella Drama has to concede him 5lb - and whilst the pick of his form gives him a chance of doing that, on balance, it looks likely to be too much of an ask.
Il Rodoto has run some good races this season - but they have all been over 2 miles.
He steps up in trip tomorrow - and if that brings about improvement, he could easily feature.
That said, he’s not looked to be crying out for the extra distance - whilst there is also a suggestion that he is better on ground softer than he is likely to encounter.
Jacamar is a handicapper - so he really shouldn’t be able to win a Grade 2 race (even if it’s a weak one); and whilst the same is true of Kiltealy Briggs, his bold jumping, front running style, will always give him a chance - particularly in novice company.
3:35
I’m going to have the ‘pleasure’ of trying to unpick a Grand National, on 3 consecutive weekends - and however hard this one may look, I suspect it will be the easiest of the trio to unravel !
Unsurprisingly, virtually all of the most interesting looking horses sit close to the top of the betting.
Christian Williams trains the pair at the head of the market: namely Kittys Light and Win my Wings.
It’s not hard to make a case for each of them - though my preference would be for the less exposed Win my Wings.
She was really impressive last time when wining the Eider chase - and the booking of crack amateur, Rob James, effectively offsets the 8lb rise she got for winning that race.
If she is still in the same form tomorrow, she will be hard to beat.
Stormy Judge is one of a pair sent over from Ireland, by Pat Fahy (History of Fashion is the other).
He looks to have been plotted up for the race - and his win at Navan last March, is particularly strong form.
The worry with him, is that he appears to have a marked preference for heavy ground.
However, is he handles underfoot conditions, he is likely to run a very big race.
The Ferry Master finished fourth in the race last year - and must have a great chance off a mark 5lb lower.
It’s hard to understand why he is lower in the weights - particularly as he’s only 9, so should be at his peak.
He didn’t quite get home last year - which is a slight worry. However, he is now a year older - and has also undergone wind surgery (which may have helped with his breathing).
The trip is also a worry for the novice, Ashtown Lad - though he is likely to travel well thought the race. Whilst Major Dundee is another novice who can definitely be given a chance (and he should cope with the trip).
Cool Mix is likely to run his race - and has a good chance of placing. That said it’ll be a little surprising if he is quite good enough to win.
There are quite a few interesting ones at big prices - but none more than El Paso Wood.
He only made his debut for David Pipe in December - but has run 8 times since then !
However, it would appear that he thrives on racing, as his last time out fourth in the Midlands National, was arguably his best effort England.
The worry is that it was only 2 weeks ago - though he does seem to have the constitution to cope.
The final one worthy of a mention, is Chirico Vallis.
Whilst I think him an unlikely winner, I expect to see him heading the field for much of the race, in his first time cheek pieces.
He is certainly one who I would expect to reward a pre-race back, with a view to laying IR.
Newbury
1:35
This looks a strong handicap hurdle, in which plenty can be given a chance…
Punctuation has won his first 2 starts for Fergal - and there’s every chance he will get up his hatrick in this.
He’s rated 83 on the flat, so even off his current mark of 114, he could still be a fair way ahead of the handicapper.
There is a slight concern that he would prefer softer ground than he is likely to get - but if he handles conditions, he’s probably the one to beat.
Royaume Uni represents the Moores - and he too looks a strong contender.
He was sent off at just 12/1 for the Betfair hurdle on his penultimate start - and whilst he wasn’t up to that task, he made no mistake on his latest outing, when bolting up at Fontwell.
He has been raised 6lb for that win - but he’s still only 5, so has plenty of scope for improvement.
Frere D’Armes was unplaced in the Dovecote hurdle on his most recent start.
However that’s a grade 2 contest - so tomorrows race is a significantly lesser race.
The handicapper has dropped him 4lb for that run, which seems premature, and he certainly can’t be discounted.
Mot a Mot is quite interesting on his first start for Sam Thomas - though he’s a hard one to assess.
The same is true of Mister Marbles, who will be having his first run in a handicap after a number of reasonable efforts in novice races. His opening mark of 114 looks fair - but time will tell…
Rainyday Woman is quite interesting for Paul Nicholls.
She has some good form in mares races - along with a couple of very poor runs.
One of her poor efforts was on her latest start at Sandown, when she was sent off at 5/2 to beat subsequent Cheltenham festival winner, Love Envoi.
She pulled up that day, and was found to have an irregular heart beat.
However, if that issue has been resolved, then the suggestion is that she could be well handicapped on a mark of 125.
2:10
A veterans race for conditional jockeys - the old and the young. What a great combination !
Whilst it feels like a race that should be relatively easy to get a handle on, it’s not - and I’m not surprised to see that Bermeo has been backed into favouritism on his debut for Harry Fry.
It’s unusual to see an exposed 11 year old transferring into a big yard - and it will be no surprise if Fry manages to get the horse back to is best (or even improves him).
He produced his best, 3 times at Cheltenham last season - and if he can recapture that level of form, he will be tough to beat tomorrow.
First Figaro is a more conventional one, as he is chasing his hat-trick for Venetia.
He also has a feather-weight to carry - and that’s ignoring the 8lb claim of his rider Ned Fox.
The only issue with him, is that he was beaten in the race last year, off a similar mark - and at 12, he is unlikely to have improved in the interim…
La Cavstra Nostra is only 10 - and relatively lightly raced - so he could still be improving (or at least, not rapidly deteriorating !).
Glen Forsa beat Psychedelic Rock by 10 lengths at Musselburgh at the beginning of February - and even on 7lb worse terms, may be able to confirm the form.
That said, neither one really jumps out as a likely race winner.
And whilst Indy Five was impressive when winning over the course on his most recent start, an 8lb rating rise and a 2 furlong shorter trip, won’t help his chances (and that ignores the fact he could get into a battle for the lead with Valadom).
Vivas looks the most interesting of those at bigger prices.
He ran really well, when second to Some Chaos at Chepstow in October, and after a mid winter break, ran with some promise behind First Figaro at Doncaster, last month.
If that run has brought him on, he could certainly outrun his odds.
2:45
This race invariably attracts a competitive field - and that’s certainly the case this year.
Speech Bubble heads the weights - and the betting - which is understandable, based on her most recent run at Sandown.
She made Love Envoi pull out all of the stops that day - and the winner went on to win at the Cheltenham festival, on her next start.
It’s clearly smart form - and suggests that a mark of 130 may under-estimate Speech Bubble.
Nina the Terrier was a further 9 lengths back in third that day - and whilst she shouldn’t really be able to reverse the form on just 6lb better terms, the drying ground is likely to suit her - and she also has strong course form, from earlier in the season.
It will certainly be no surprise if there’s not much between the pair.
Not that this is just a 2 horse race !
The unbeaten Coreys Courage looks interesting on her handicap debut off a mark of just 117.
She’s hard to assess - but there is a chance that she has been let in lightly.
She should have the beating of Nextdoortoalice, on their recent run at Doncaster - though the latter was sent off fav that day and possibly didn’t run her race.
Holly Hartingo has a chance - though it should be a similar chance to Nextdoortoalice (based on Ludlow form).
A couple of the outsiders also catch my eye: namely Marsh Wren and The Player Queen.
The former looked not to get home last time, over 3 miles at Doncaster. She should be much better suited by half a mile less, on better ground.
And whilst The Player Queen was pulled up on her most recent start, that was at the Cheltenham festival (behind Love Envoi).
Prior to that, she had been a game winner at Musselburgh - and she has travelled a long way to contest this race..
1:35
This looks a strong handicap hurdle, in which plenty can be given a chance…
Punctuation has won his first 2 starts for Fergal - and there’s every chance he will get up his hatrick in this.
He’s rated 83 on the flat, so even off his current mark of 114, he could still be a fair way ahead of the handicapper.
There is a slight concern that he would prefer softer ground than he is likely to get - but if he handles conditions, he’s probably the one to beat.
Royaume Uni represents the Moores - and he too looks a strong contender.
He was sent off at just 12/1 for the Betfair hurdle on his penultimate start - and whilst he wasn’t up to that task, he made no mistake on his latest outing, when bolting up at Fontwell.
He has been raised 6lb for that win - but he’s still only 5, so has plenty of scope for improvement.
Frere D’Armes was unplaced in the Dovecote hurdle on his most recent start.
However that’s a grade 2 contest - so tomorrows race is a significantly lesser race.
The handicapper has dropped him 4lb for that run, which seems premature, and he certainly can’t be discounted.
Mot a Mot is quite interesting on his first start for Sam Thomas - though he’s a hard one to assess.
The same is true of Mister Marbles, who will be having his first run in a handicap after a number of reasonable efforts in novice races. His opening mark of 114 looks fair - but time will tell…
Rainyday Woman is quite interesting for Paul Nicholls.
She has some good form in mares races - along with a couple of very poor runs.
One of her poor efforts was on her latest start at Sandown, when she was sent off at 5/2 to beat subsequent Cheltenham festival winner, Love Envoi.
She pulled up that day, and was found to have an irregular heart beat.
However, if that issue has been resolved, then the suggestion is that she could be well handicapped on a mark of 125.
2:10
A veterans race for conditional jockeys - the old and the young. What a great combination !
Whilst it feels like a race that should be relatively easy to get a handle on, it’s not - and I’m not surprised to see that Bermeo has been backed into favouritism on his debut for Harry Fry.
It’s unusual to see an exposed 11 year old transferring into a big yard - and it will be no surprise if Fry manages to get the horse back to is best (or even improves him).
He produced his best, 3 times at Cheltenham last season - and if he can recapture that level of form, he will be tough to beat tomorrow.
First Figaro is a more conventional one, as he is chasing his hat-trick for Venetia.
He also has a feather-weight to carry - and that’s ignoring the 8lb claim of his rider Ned Fox.
The only issue with him, is that he was beaten in the race last year, off a similar mark - and at 12, he is unlikely to have improved in the interim…
La Cavstra Nostra is only 10 - and relatively lightly raced - so he could still be improving (or at least, not rapidly deteriorating !).
Glen Forsa beat Psychedelic Rock by 10 lengths at Musselburgh at the beginning of February - and even on 7lb worse terms, may be able to confirm the form.
That said, neither one really jumps out as a likely race winner.
And whilst Indy Five was impressive when winning over the course on his most recent start, an 8lb rating rise and a 2 furlong shorter trip, won’t help his chances (and that ignores the fact he could get into a battle for the lead with Valadom).
Vivas looks the most interesting of those at bigger prices.
He ran really well, when second to Some Chaos at Chepstow in October, and after a mid winter break, ran with some promise behind First Figaro at Doncaster, last month.
If that run has brought him on, he could certainly outrun his odds.
2:45
This race invariably attracts a competitive field - and that’s certainly the case this year.
Speech Bubble heads the weights - and the betting - which is understandable, based on her most recent run at Sandown.
She made Love Envoi pull out all of the stops that day - and the winner went on to win at the Cheltenham festival, on her next start.
It’s clearly smart form - and suggests that a mark of 130 may under-estimate Speech Bubble.
Nina the Terrier was a further 9 lengths back in third that day - and whilst she shouldn’t really be able to reverse the form on just 6lb better terms, the drying ground is likely to suit her - and she also has strong course form, from earlier in the season.
It will certainly be no surprise if there’s not much between the pair.
Not that this is just a 2 horse race !
The unbeaten Coreys Courage looks interesting on her handicap debut off a mark of just 117.
She’s hard to assess - but there is a chance that she has been let in lightly.
She should have the beating of Nextdoortoalice, on their recent run at Doncaster - though the latter was sent off fav that day and possibly didn’t run her race.
Holly Hartingo has a chance - though it should be a similar chance to Nextdoortoalice (based on Ludlow form).
A couple of the outsiders also catch my eye: namely Marsh Wren and The Player Queen.
The former looked not to get home last time, over 3 miles at Doncaster. She should be much better suited by half a mile less, on better ground.
And whilst The Player Queen was pulled up on her most recent start, that was at the Cheltenham festival (behind Love Envoi).
Prior to that, she had been a game winner at Musselburgh - and she has travelled a long way to contest this race..
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