The 3 day Aintree Grand National meeting gets under-way tomorrow - and it’ll be interesting to see how the ground is riding…
The weather in the Aintree area is forecast to be mixed this week - so there will be an element of ‘lucky dip’ about conditions !Hopefully it will all work out OK (not become extreme): 7mm of rain on Sunday night, turned the ground ‘good to soft’ - however, no further rain fell on Monday or Tuesday and as a result, selective watering took place yesterday evening.
The target is ground on the soft side of good - whether that will be achieved, only time will tell…
Away from the state of the ground, the big dilemma at Aintree, is always whether to side with horses that have run well (or poorly !) at Cheltenham - or with those that have been saved for this meeting.
There is no one answer to this - as the impact Cheltenham has on horses, varies.
That said, an educated guess can often be taken…
Here’s my early thoughts on the first day….
Aintree
1:45
7 will go to post for the meeting opener - and a decent case can be made for 5 of them…
Of the 5, only one ran at Cheltenham - War Lord.
He was a very creditable fourth to Edwardstone in the Arkle - and should appreciate the extra 4 furlongs of this race.
If he can run to the same level of form, then he sets a fair standard for the race.
On official ratings, Pic D’orhy is the one to beat.
He’s won 3 times this season - and has had excuses, the twice he has been beaten (a fall - and up against L’Homme Presse).
The flat track at Aintree should be ideal for him - and assuming his jumping holds up, it’s hard to see him not running a big race.
He should certainly have the beating of Millers Bank.
That one finished a length behind him at Kempton at the end of February - and is likely to struggle to reverse the form, on 5lb worse terms.
Erne River is difficult to assess - but has looked good in winning his 2 starts over fences.
On his chasing debut at Doncaster in January, he comfortably beat Beakstown - and then followed that up, by defeating Uncle Alistair at Wetherby.
The bare form of those 2 wins, justify Erne Rivers official rating of 144 - but he could be a fair bit better than that…
Gin on Lime is the final one of the main quartet.
She hasn’t run for nearly 6 months - but that’s because she has a preference for decent ground (which she may - or may not - get !).
She wasn’t at her best on her most recent start.
She won a match race at Cheltenham - but only because her jockey managed to somehow stay in the saddle, despite her making a shocking mistake at the second last (where her sole rival fell).
Prior to that however, she has looked good when winning at Tipperary - and on that form, she definitely has a chance (particularly taking into account the 7lb mares allowance that she will receive from her rivals)
2:20
As Grade 1 contests go, this one looks poor…
Pied Piper appears to stand head and shoulders above his opponents - courtesy of his last time out third, in the Triumph hurdle.
That was a much stronger race than this - and whilst he was only the third best horse in that race, he’ll not be facing rivals of the calibre of Vauban and Fil D’or, in this.
On his previous outing, Pied Piper hacked up in the Triumph hurdle trial at Cheltenhams January meeting.
If he performs to the same level as either of those runs, then he’s unlikely to get beaten tomorrow…
Brazil is the only one threatening Pied Piper in the market - but I’m not entirely convinced by him.
He won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham - but that’s a handicap - and he wouldn’t have won if Gaellic Warrior had been a little more street wise.
This race represents a steep class rise - and based on his earlier form, I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to cope with Pied Piper.
That said, away from the favourite, this does look weak…
Petit Tonnerre is next in the betting - but that’s a defensive move by the bookmakers, as the horse is very hard to assess.
He won well enough on his UK debut at Market Rasen - but only beat 2 rivals, so it’s impossible to accurately gauge the form.
On form, Knight Salute in the best of the UK trained horses - but he finished almost 20 lengths behind Pied Piper in the Triumph and there is no reason why he should close that gap.
Fautinette is moderately interesting for Venetia, or her UK debut - though it’s unlikely that she will be up to winning.
Similarly, In the Air could outrun his odd, for Gary Moore. He won well on his UK debut at Newbury - and may well build on that.
However, it will be a surprise if he has improved sufficiently, to trouble Pied Piper…
2:55
A competitive field will go to post for The Betway Bowl - and a case can be made for the top 6 in the betting…
Clan des Obeaux won the race 12 months ago - and has clearly been targeted at a repeat.
However, his seasonal debut in the King George was a little disappointing - and his most recent run at Newbury, even more so…
The horse is now 10 - and has plenty of miles on his clock.
The application of first time blinkers may gee him up - but there must also be a possibility that he’s not quite the horse he was…
Kemboy has a similar profile.
He won the race 3 years ago (when easily beating Clan des Obeaux) - and has put in a number of good performances since then.
However, he too is now 10 - and his powers may be waning.
That said, his third to Galvin in the Savills chase at Christmas, shows that he is still capable of top class form - and it does look as if Willie Mullins has targeted him at this race.
Protektorat can boast the best recent form, courtesy of his third in the Gold Cup.
He ran really well that day - though did have a very hard race.
If he’s come out of it OK, he’s probably the one to beat - particularly as he is unbeaten in 2 runs at Aintree.
Royal Pagaille finished a fair way behind Protektorat in the Gold cup - and it would probably require soft ground, for him to have a chance of reversing the form.
It would probably also require soft ground for him to reverse Newbury form from February, with Eldorado Allen.
Eldorado Allen proved 2 lengths too good for Royal Pagaille that day - and then went on to finish a commendable third to Allaho in the Ryanair chase at Cheltenham.
That’s good form - and Eldorado Allen can probably do even better, back at 3 miles.
Conflated is the last of the main contenders.
He burst on to the scene, when winning the Irish Gold cup at Leopardstown in February - and was in the process of running a good race, when falling at the second last in the Ryanair.
That said, he had come under pressure - and I’m not sure he would have beaten Eldorado Allen (never mind Allaho !), so he will need to step up on that effort, if he is to win this.
3:30
The final Grade 1 of the day - and it looks a particularly interesting contest…
3 of the first 5 home in the Champion hurdle, renew rivalry - and in the absence of Honeysuckle, it’ll be fascinating to see which one comes out on top.
The extra half mile trip, is likely to have a big bearing on things - and the suggestion is that it will really suit Zanahiyr.
He finished third in the Champion and has only got a length to find on runner up, Epatante.
It has always looked as if he’d be a better horse over further than the minimum - and this will give him a chance to prove it.
By contrast, Epatante has always appeared well suited by the minimum.
Having not been at her best last season, she has bounced back this season, winning twice and finishing an honourable runner up in the Champion.
She was beaten just over 3 lengths by Honeysuckle - but a poor jump at the last cost her ground and momentum - and she was clearly the second best horse in the race.
There is a doubt about her staying the extra half mile - tho if anything, she was pulling away from Zanahiyr, as the line approached.
Glory and Fortune finished fifth in the Champion - and really caught my eye, staying on late in the closing stages.
The trouble is, he has a fair amount of ground to make up on both Epatante and Zanahiyr - and whilst the extra distance should help him close the gap, it’s quite hard to see him reversing the form.
Brewin ‘upastorm finished fifth in last years renewal of this - and although he has run well in all 4 of his races this season, as a 9 year old, he really shouldn’t be capable of improving sufficiently to take this years contest.
A case can be made for Monmiral - as he won at this meeting last year and ran creditably last time at Fontwell (when behind Brewin ‘upastorm).
However, there is a doubt over his stamina - and he’s another who it’s quite hard to see winning.
In truth, this does look as if it might develop into a match between Epatante and Zanahiyr - with the winner, whichever one sees out the trip best…
4:05
24 runners over the big fences, with amateur riders on board - this should be a good watch !
The first 4 home from last years race, are all running again - and it’s not easy to figure out which one will come out on top…
Cousin Pascal won the race 12 months ago - surging clear in the final 100 yards.
He was sent off at 66/1 that day - but there was no fluke about his win.
He has shown himself as good as ever this season: with 2 more wins and 2 second places - though he was pulled up on his most recent start in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham, which obviously isn’t ideal (though it will help his price !).
Latenightpass finished runner up last year - and as he is a year younger than Cousin Pascal, he may have improved sufficiently in the interim, to reverse the form.
He has only run in PTPs since and looks to have been targeted at this race.
Cat Tiger finished third in last years race - and he has been kept quite busy since then, running in a number of handicap chases.
Again, he’s a relatively young horse, so may still be improving - though he also looks a slightly tricky ride (which isn’t ideal, with David Maxwell on board !).
Clondaw Westie finished fourth last year - despite being sent off at 200/1 !
The view appears to be that it was a fluke - as he’s 40/1 for this years renewal !
That seems a generous price - as whilst there is no obvious reason why he should reverse the form, he was only beaten 6 lengths by the winner.
10/1 for him to finish in the top 4, strikes me as a decent bet…
The main issue for all 4 horses, is that this year, they face a rival who could be different class - and who is also proven over the Aintree fences.
Jett was rated 150 when he ran in last years Grand National - and he gave a tremendous sight, leading the field until his stamina gave out in the final half mile.
None of his rivals are rated within 10lbs of that mark - whilst his previous course form and Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle, are both big positives.
The only real negative, is his price - as 3/1 in a 24 runner race, doesn’t leave much margin for error !
However, he does look by far the most likely winner…
Of those at bigger prices, Pont Aven looks quite interesting, having failed to stay the trip last time in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham: whilst it’s interesting that 2021 Foxhunter winner, Porlock Bay runs in this, seemingly instead of trying to defend his crown.
4:40
This is the only handicap on the card - and maybe unsurprisingly, it looks a tough one to solve…
The Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival, is the obvious place to start.
That race was won by Global Citizen, with Frero Banbou 6 lengths back in third, and Sky Pirate, Elixir de Nutz & Dancing on my Own, all well beaten.
Global Citizen was raised 7lb for the win - but that still leaves him well handicapped based on his hurdles form, from a few years back - so it’s quite feasible that he will again prove the one to beat.
That said, Frero Banbou must have a chance of reversing the form, as he was given a lot to do, in a race where it was very hard to make up ground.
Away from that form line, there are a host of potentially interesting threads, which can be followed…
Perhaps the most interesting, concerns King D’argent.
He has been dropping down the handicap all season - and showed on his most recent start, that his turn isn’t far away.
He was narrowly beaten by Bun Doran at Doncaster, when a sloppy jump at the last, probably cost him the race.
He should reverse the form with the winner on 2lb better terms, and looks a serious contender.
Thyme White should be suited by a race like this (a quick 2 miles) - though he was unimpressive last time at Ascot.
He’ll need to leave that form behind, if he is to feature - but he may be capable of doing that…
Early favourite, Before Midnight, certainly has a chance - but the market is wise to him.
Consequently, The Last Day looks more interesting, at a big price.
He was returning from a year off the course, when falling at the final fence with the race seemingly won, at Haydock in January.
He’s not been seen since, but may have been saved for this, as his trainer likes to target it the meeting.
The horse has also won previously at Aintree - and whilst he seems to have a preference for soft ground, there is a chance that he will get it !
5:15
Mares bumpers wouldn’t be my area of speciality - though in fairness, I doubt they are an area of speciality for many people !
That said, I was really taken by Rosy Redrum, when she finished second on her most recent start at Newbury.
She was held up stone cold last that day, and made up a huge amount of ground in the final couple of furlongs, but just couldn’t reel in Top Dog.
The trouble is, it’s impossible to assess what that form is worth…
And that’s the issue with all of the runners:
Kateira was really impressive when making a wining debut at Huntingdon - but the time was quite modest and the form is unproven.
It’s quite possible that the 3 Irish raiders have the best form in the race.
Ashroe Diamond was fourth in the Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing festival: whilst Naughtiness won well at Punchestown on New Years day - and Law Ella was an impressive debut winner at Down Royal, 3 weeks ago.
All 3 could be very decent - but we can only guess…
It’s probably fair to assume that Donald McCain has targeted Roc of Dundee at the race.
She beat Ilovethenightlife at Ascot in February, but that one has a chance of reversing the form with that run under her belt (she looked as if she would improve for it).
That said, there is too much guesswork required, to consider getting seriously involved with this race…
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