Unlike today, when there were a lot of suitable betting races at Haydock (the tricky part was selecting the right horses to back !), there aren’t many races tomorrow which lend themselves to betting…
A total of 8 will be shown on RTE - 5 from Fairyhouse and 3 from Cork - but all make limited betting appeal.
The 3 Cork races look impossible to figure out - and in truth, the Fairyhouse ones don’t much look easier..!
I really haven’t got a view on most of them, so I’ll just preview the main races from Fairyhouse and see if I can find any bets in the morning.
If I can, I’ll advise at around 10:00 (so the same time as today).
Fairyhouse
2:35
This 25 runner novice handicap hurdle, looks an absolute minefield !
My inclination would be to side with one of the runners making it’s handicap debut - but there are quite a few of those !
Of the market leaders, then Gracchus de Balme looks interesting, with top apprentice, Shane Fitzgerald in the saddle.
He’s had 3 runs in novice events - placing on the first 2 occasions, and then winning on his most recent start at Clonmel.
It’s impossible to assess how good he is - but an opening mark of 125 (minus the 5lb jockey claim), seems to give him every chance.
L’Yser is the other appealing market leader.
He has a similar profile, in that he has run 3 times in novice hurdles, winning on his most recent start at Fairyhouse.
An opening mark of 114 looks workable (accepting there is plenty of guesswork required).
Of those at bigger prices, I’m most drawn to Ballykeel and Willaston.
The former is trained by Gordon Elliott, and will be ridden by Jack Kennedy.
He is another who will be making his handicap debut after 3 runs in novice events.
He won on his second start at Leopardstown - before being put in his place by Gatsby Grey at Naas.
Willaston is a massive price - but a lot of that will be down to his low-profile connections…
He hacked up in a novice hurdle at Gowran on his rules debut in October - and really could be anything.
His subsequent absence puts a slight question mark over him - tho his win did prove that he can run well fresh.
There are likely to be worse 50/1 shots running tomorrow !
3:10
The first Grade 1 of the afternoon, is almost a re-run of the mares novice hurdle from the Cheltenham festival - but over half a mile further !
That race was won by Love Envoi - with Grangee, third; Braganza, fifth, Impervious, sixth; Hors Piste eighth; Dinoblue, ninth; and Statuaire, tenth.
Love Envoi was a ready winner of that race - and as she is likely to be well suited by a step up in trip, very much looks the one to beat tomorrow.
The main concerns with her, are that she has run 5 times in the last 4 months (winning all 5) - and her recent races have been on soft/heavy ground.
Provided she hasn’t gone over the top - and she copes OK with conditions - then she is by far the most likely winner.
Of those she beat at Cheltenham, Dinoblue is the most interesting.
She was sent off 11/8 fav for that race, following a hugely impressive debut at Clonmel in January.
As she is trained by Willie Mullins, it’s reasonable to think that the support was well informed - and presumably she ran below form at Cheltenham.
That said, she pulled too hard at Cheltenham - and if she does the same tomorrow, there is no way that she’ll stay the extra half mile.
Away from that form line, the only one worthy of consideration, is Brandy Love.
She won well on her hurdling debut at Naas in December - but then her jumping went to pot, when she was beaten on her next start at Fairyhouse.
The suggestion is that she didn’t cope with going right handed - but I’m not totally convinced that was the reason.
It’s interesting that Willie Mullins tries her in a first time hood - and if that has the desired effect, she has sufficient ability to go very close.
3:45
I’m struggling to see an angle into this novice chase…
Stand Off just about appeals most - but he has been installed the early favourite, which lessens the attraction.
He’s only run 3 times over fences - and has won twice.
He took at novice chase at Fairyhouse on his seasonal debut in November - and scored again at Down Royal, on his most recent start.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race - and he looks the one to beat.
Rightplacerightime has been sent off favourite on 8 of his 9 runs for Emmet Mullins - but has won just once.
In fairness, he has also finished runner up on 3 occasions - but he is becoming quite a expensive horse to follow.
If he could get everything right, then he would certainly have a chance - but there is a suspicion that his jumping isn’t really good enough.
Alko Rouge is the last one on an unconvincing short list !
He travelled like the best horse in the race, at Leopardstown last time - before cutting out, up the home straight.
In the circumstances, it seems a little strange that he is being stepped up half a mile in trip - unless connections have figured out what caused that to happen.
He may not be one for a conventional ‘win’ bet - but a back to lay IR might not be a bad idea, if he travels as strongly as he did at Leopardstown.
4:20
Rather than running in the previous race, this looks as if it would have been a better target for Alko Rouge, over the minimum trip.
As a result, his stablemate Bold Emperor, becomes quite interesting…
In truth, he looks as if he may have been better suited to the previous race, over half a mile further - but I’ll assume his trainer hasn’t got his entries mixed up !
In fairness, Bold Emperor did run out of steam last time, when second at Fairyhouse.
That was a good run though, as he’d been off the track for nearly 6 months. If he has come on for it, then he should run well.
Buddy Rich was the ante-post favourite for the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival - but didn’t make the race.
He’s not run since November, but that’s because he has a preference for decent ground.
He showed a good level of form, in 6 chases in the autumn - and provided he’s ready to do himself justice, he could be hard to beat.
Kalkas ran well at Leopardstown last month, on his return from a winter break.
He had shown little in 2 novice chases in December - but performed much better when runner up to Fighting Fit.
If he can build on that effort, then he is another who could go close.
Grange Walk is likely to run his usual solid race - though he is held by Poseidon on their run at Cork in October.
Poseidon was a convincing winner that day - but has shown little in 4 subsequent runs. The handicapper is taking his time to relent - but Poseidon will almost certainly bounce back to form at some point…
4:55
The second Grade 1 on the card, really should be a formality for Galopin Des Champs.
He’s been the most exciting novice chaser of the season (in fact, the most exciting novice chaser of the past few seasons) - and would have comfortably won the Turner novice chase at Cheltenham, if not for a very unfortunate fall at the final fence.
Assuming he is over that spill - and provided gets round without issue - then he is by far the most likely winner.
The reality is that he’s already beaten most of tomorrows rivals.
That includes second favourite, Master McShee who finished 9 lengths behind him, when a credible runner up in the novice chase at the Dublin Racing festival.
French Dynamite finished well beaten in that race - whilst Beacon Edge took a relatively early fall. However, he has since been beaten at both Naas and Cheltenham - and it’s hard to see him mounting a significant challenge tomorrow.
With Galopin holding Blue Sari on Leopardstown form from Christmas, his biggest danger could be Riviere D’etel.
She’s the only horse in the race, who hasn’t already bumped into Galopin this season - and whilst she did disappoint on her most recent start in the Arkle, stepping her up in trip by half a mile is an interesting move.
I doubt she will be able to beat Galopin - but if her stamina lasts, she may be capable of chasing him home.
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