Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting - and the 7 race card has a bit of something for everyone !
The Melling chase is the high-light of four Grade 1 races: whilst the Topham chase is just one of 3 ultra competitive handicaps.The state of the ground remains a mystery - but hopefully conditions will be soft enough, to enable L’Homme Presse take on Bravemansgame in the novice chase.
Here are my early thoughts on the days races…
Aintree
1:45
The first of 3 really tough handicaps - and just drawing up a short list, is not an easy thing to do…
The logical place to start, is the Martin Pipe hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
Cobblers Dream finished runner up in that race - and must have every chance in this, from a 4lb higher mark.
On his previous outing, he had bolted up in the Lanzarote at Kempton - but has to meet the runner up that day, Highway one o two, on 11lb worse terms for a 5 length beating.
That should be sufficient for the form to be reversed - though the winner does seem to be on a steep upward curve…
Langer Dan was sent off favourite for the Martin Pipe hurdle, but was brought down at the second flight.
He will therefore be meeting Cobblers Dream on 4lb better terms tomorrow - so it’s not too surprising to see him also heading the early betting for this.
Nicky Henderson saddles 4 in the race - and they can all be given a chance.
Nico de Boinville is on board Balco Coastal, suggesting he is the stables main hope: though I quite like Fil Doudaries, who will be ridden by James Bowen.
The latter ran really well when runner up to Unexpected Party, on his stable debut at Ascot in January - and the suggestion is that he’s been kept back for this race.
Balco Coastal was sent off favourite for the Imperial Cup at Sandown last month, but appeared unable to cope with the very soft ground. He could easily bounce back on a better surface…
Speech Bubble is of interest, near the foot of the weights.
She ran Love Envoi close at Sandown in February - and the winner franked that form by winning at Cheltenham.
Speech Bubble was pulled out of the mares race at Newbury on Saturday, because of the quick ground - but if it’s soft enough for her to run in this, she should go well.
There are quite a few of interest at bigger prices: most notably, Peking Rose, who finished runner up to Knappers Hill, in the bumper at this meeting 12 months ago: and Navajo Pass.
He has been badly out of form this season, but has dropped 24lb in a year - and is now on a mark 10lb lower than he won from at Musselburgh, last January.
2:20
It’s no surprise to see Jonbon a short priced favourite for this, following his second place in the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He was no match for Constitution Hill that day - but few horses would have been, and he lost little in defeat.
He’ll be very unlucky if he bumps into anything of that calibre in this - and if he runs to the same level of form, he is very much the one to beat.
That said, this race doesn’t look a formality for him…
Willie Mullins sends over El Fabiolo - and the horse was hugely impressive when making a winning Irish debut at Tramore.
It’s impossible to assess the form - but Willie clearly holds him in high regard, and for that reason alone, he needs to be respected.
First Street and Surprise Package both switch to compete in this novice race, having performed very well in open handicaps.
First Street finished third in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury - and followed that up with an even better effort, when runner up to State Man in the County hurdle at Cheltenham.
He’ll probably have to improve a few more pounds to win this - but that’s certainly possible.
Surprised Package finished behind First Street at Cheltenham - and shouldn’t really reverse that form.
However, he may have been feeling the effects of his win in the Imperial Cup, just 6 days earlier, so he may be capable of better than he showed that day.
Aucunrisque put up an improved effort to win the Dovecote at Kempton on his most recent start - but he’ll need to improve again (and quite significantly), if he’s to take this.
Vina Ardanza is slightly more appealing.
He’s only run twice for Gordon Elliott - winning on the first occasions - and then finishing runner up in a grade 3 at Naas.
He too will need to improve if he is to feature in this - but the fact that Elliott is prepared to send him over, suggests he thinks the horse is capable of doing just that…
2:55
Only 4 have been declared for this - and hopefully they will all make it to post, as despite the field size, it should be a cracking contest…
On paper, it appears to be a match between Bravemansgame and L’Homme Presse - though the latter will only run, if the ground is suitable (soft).
The pair of them were supposed to clash in the Brown Advisory novice chase at Cheltenham - but Bravemansgame was a late withdrawal, due to the very soft ground.
In his absence, L’Homme Presse put up a scintillating performance and came home over 3 lengths ahead of Ahoy Senor.
The runner up re-opposes tomorrow - and did win over hurdles at this meeting last year.
However, his jumping is nowhere near as slick at that of L’Homme Presse - and I would expect the form to be upheld…
Whether L’Homme Presse will be able to withstand Bravemansgame however, is a different matter.
He’s unbeaten in 4 starts this season - and his jumping has been flawless.
Certainly, I don’t recall ever seeing a novice jump better (aside from Best Mate, maybe :) ) and that’s a huge positive for him.
That said, the advantage he will hold over L’Homme Presse in that department isn’t massive (as he too, is a very good jumper) - so this should be a fair test of their respective abilities.
In truth, it’s very hard to say which one is the better horse - which is why this will be a fascinating contest (assuming it materialises !).
If forced off the fence, I would side with Bravemansgame - mainly because he sidestepped a tough race at Cheltenham.
However, it’s a race that I will be more than happy to just watch…
3:30
Whilst I have no issue with Fakir D’oudaries heading the market for this - he does look a bit short in the betting at around 6/4…
Part of the reason, is because he won the corresponding race last year - and looks to have been targeted at a repeat.
It’s also true that he won his most recent race at Ascot - and had a couple of tomorrows rivals behind him.
However the ground that day was soft - and he handled it much better than Saint Calvados and Mister Fisher (both of whom, re-oppose tomorrow).
If the ground is again soft, then the result is likely to be the same - but on quicker ground, both horses will have a chance of reversing the form.
The reality is, on official ratings, Fakir Doudaries has very little in hand of most of his rivals - so whilst he may be the most likely winner, he is no certainty…
In truth, cases can be made for most of the field.
Funambule Sivola is interesting, stepping up in trip after a fine second in the Champion chase.
On his previous start he had beaten Sceau Royal at Newbury - and that one also steps up in trip, in an attempt to exact his revenge.
If the ground is good - and provided he stays the trip - then on 6lb better terms for a 2 length beating, Sceau Royal has a good chance of reversing the form.
Allmankind has disappointed in 2 races since winning over course and distance in the autumn - he has a bit to prove.
Captain Guiness is another who is stepping up in trip - and he certainly can’t be dismissed, if he copes with the extra distance.
As already mentioned, Mister Fisher and Saint Calvados both want decent ground - but if they get it, then they are capable of going very close.
By contrast, Hitman wants it soft - but if he gets his conditions, then he still has plenty of scope for improvement.
Paint the Dream and Editeur de Gite are both handicappers stepping into graded company and will probably find it a bit much.
That said, neither can be completely dismissed…
Ultimately, I think the ground will be key to the result of this race - with half of the runners wanting it good - and the other half wanting it soft.
We’ll have to see what nature/the clerk of the course, delivers..!
4:05
Aside from the National itself, this is the trickiest handicap to solve at the meeting - with 30 runners, taking on the big fences…
Again, it’s not easy even drawing up a short-list - but I’ve given it a go !
The first one on it, is Mac Tottie.
He won the Grand Sefton over course and distance in November - and yet remarkably, will run off exactly the same mark tomorrow.
That’s because he has not shown anything in 4 subsequent runs. However all 4 were over longer trips - and dropped back to 2m5f tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to form.
In theory, he holds Senior Citizen, as that one was a length behind him in the Grand Sefton and will be 4lb worse off tomorrow.
However, you shouldn’t get too wrapped up in pounds and lengths in a race of this nature. Senior Citizen has clearly been targeted at this race (he finished third in it last year) - and I expect him run well.
Mister Coffey has an attractive profile - as an improving novice who ran well last time.
That was in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival, where he looked the winner for most of the home straight, but didn’t quite get home.
Dropped back in trip, he’s likely to go close, provided he copes with the fences…
Five Star Getaway has an obvious chance based on his defeat of Fortescue and Flegmatic at Kempton over Christmas - though his 2 subsequent defeats need ignoring.
And whilst Killer Clown has impressively won 2 of his last 3 starts, his new mark of 148 could prove challenging for him…
Tamaroc du Mathan was completely outpointed by Paint the Dream at Newbury last month - but take him out of the race and he would have been a 5 length winner from Senior Citizen !
Looked at like that, he certainly demands respect…
Pink Eyed Pedro ran a massive race to be second to Livelovelaugh in this race 12 months ago - and must have a real chance off a mark 2lb lower.
Whilst Rider inthe Storm would be very interesting if re-capturing his old form.
He’s dropped 20lb in the past year - and showed on his seasonal return in December, that he is still capable of a big run.
4:40
It’s staggering that this is a Grade 1 contest - with just one of the runner rated over 140 (143).
That’s the kind of rating you’d expect for the top weight of a decent handicap !
In fairness, as they are all novices, they have plenty of scope for improvement - and the Aintree executive will doubtless be hoping that the race does throw up a star or two, or the race’s Grade 1 status could be in jeopardy !
Based on the official ratings, the best horse in the race is Banbridge.
He was a gutsy winner of the Martin Pipe handicap at the Cheltenham festival - and may be capable of improved form now that he is stepping up in trip.
The next 2 in the betting: Green Book and Gelino Bello, also have form in handicaps - and don’t seem to possess a huge amount of scope to improve on their current ratings (137 & 138 respectively).
As a consequence, this race looks ripe for a boil over - the tricky bit is figuring out which horse might be capable of taking a significant step up…
Fair Frontieres is one possible.
He’s won 3 of his 4 races for Kim Bailey - and completely blowing out on the other (which makes it easier to ignore).
He has shown a good attitude the last twice - and could well improve, moving back up in trip tomorrow.
Gentleman at Arms is another who could well improve for a step up in trip.
He’s run well on his 3 most recent starts, looking as if he could benefit from 3 miles.
Skytastic is another possible improver - though he has been picked up in the early market, which lessens his appeal.
By contrast Bowtogreatness is relatively unfancied in the betting - but is yet another who could be capable of taking his form to another level, faced with a proper stamina test.
In short, this very much looks a race where you need to look forward and try to work out what the runners are capable of - as opposed to looking in the formbook to see what they have already achieved…
5:15
This is another tricky handicap - made even more challenging by the fact it is restricted to conditional jockeys…
Lively Citizen is a good place to start.
He’s already won twice this season - and finished runner up in the Imperial Cup on his most recent start.
It’s therefore a little surprising that he gets into this race on bottom weight - and that’s ignoring the 7lb claim of his jockey.
I would expect him to be right in the mix, once again…
That said, he could be vulnerable to an improver - and there are a few in the race who look capable of stepping up on their previous form.
Washington makes his handicap debut on the back of a few decent runs in novice events.
His opening mark of 127 looks workable - and he has to be on any short list.
Whizz Kid is also making his handicap debut, after just 3 runs over hurdles,
However, he’s won 2 of them, and was listed class on the flat in France - so clearly could be well handicapped, off an opening mark of 125.
Gipsy de Choisel hasn’t run for over a year - but prior to that had shown decent form in 3 novice races.
If he is ready to do himself justice (and I would expect him to be), he’s another capable of going very well.
Richmond Lake is yet another, having his first run in a handicap.
His 3 length defeat by Jonbon is decent form - even if he disappointed a little next time at Kelso.
There is a chance that he found that 18f trip a bit far - and dropped back to the minimum tomorrow, he should go well.
Of the more exposed ones, then in addition to Lively Citizen, I would expect Severance to run well.
His second to Cormier at Cheltenham in January, is good form - and whilst he disappointed a little behind the same horse at Kelso on his latest start, he was 2lb wrong at the weights that day.
Alberts Back is the final one of interest.
He’s now 4lb lower than when winning at Haydock last season - and showed himself returning to form last time, when narrowly beaten at Wetherby.
The application of first time cheek pieces tomorrow, is an interesting move - and he definitely has a chance…
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