Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Bets/staking rationale

 There will be no bets today - either Best bets or Matrix bets.


Dinoblue in the 3:10, is the closest I got to an official bet.
I’ll be surprised if the race isn’t won by one of the top 4 in the betting - and she struck me as just about the best bet - until Pricewise put her up !
5/1 would be a minimum price - but there is plenty of guesswork involved, so it’s relatively easy to leave her alone.

There is no angle into the other big race on the card (4:55).
Provided he jumps round OK, then Galopin des Champs should win - and win relatively easily.

The handicap hurdle at 2:35 looks a complete lottery.
I’ll probably have a couple of quid on each of the 4 that I picked out in the preview - but it will be more in hope than expectation.

The 2 other races of interest (3:45 & 4:20) have both got a reasonable betting shape - but there is nothing that I particularly fancy, in either...

When I looked again at the 3:45, I thought that maybe Gevrey was the one - but he’s a bit too short in the betting to warrant a risk (and I don’t feel particularly strongly about him).
Bold Emperor is the one I’m drawn to in the 4:20 - despite the fact I know conditions won’t be ideal for him.
I suspect he will run well - and may be capable of placing - but he should be vulnerable from a win perspective.

As a consequence, it’s a watching day - and with the Irish National tomorrow, a studying day…

I’ll post a preview for the tomorrows big races in the forum, this evening - and look to issue any bets at around 10:00 in the morning.

TVB.

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