Best bets
Haydock2:09
Lime Drop 0.5pt win 13/2
2:44
Deyrann de Carjac 0.5pt win 9/1
Matrix bets
Haydock
2:09
Cubswin 1 unit win CEP 25 FP 17
2:44
Isolate 2 units win CEP 5 FP 5.5
3:19
Castel Gandolfo 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 17
4:29
Grosvenor Court 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17
5:01
Maid O’Malley 2 units win CEP CEP 6 FP 6
2:09
Cubswin 1 unit win CEP 25 FP 17
2:44
Isolate 2 units win CEP 5 FP 5.5
3:19
Castel Gandolfo 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 17
4:29
Grosvenor Court 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17
5:01
Maid O’Malley 2 units win CEP CEP 6 FP 6
There are some nice races at Haydock today - accepting that
end of season form, often isn’t completely reliable.
I’ve tried to find horses who appear to have been targeted at the meeting - though obviously there is some guesswork involved.
Despite not issuing bets until 10:00, I was very conscious of how weak the markets were.
Only £10K had been matched on Betfair for the opening race - and that means that prices will be particularly sensitive (they will quickly drop).
That said, I think that all of the prices quoted were ‘fair’ - and I would expect them to bounce back, after the initial surge.
Here is the thinking behind todays bets…
Haydock
I’m quite keen on Lime Drop in the opener (2:09).
She’s a mare on the upgrade, who seems to have a really good attitude.
I think she can benefit from todays step up in trip - and at 6/1+, she is a good bet.
Cubswin in the potential fly in the ointment.
She’s almost certainly been targeted at this race - and despite top weight, is fairly handicapped.
She is worth a saver, for the Matrix.
I’d long had Deyrann de Carjac in mind for the 2:44 (since February, in fact !)
However, the fact Alan King runs 3 in the race, has slightly put me off.
In truth, I probably slightly prefer his stablemate, Isolate - but the market prefers him a lot more !
As a consequence, Deyrann has drifted to a big price - and he warrants a risk at around 9/1.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Isolate drift from his early 3/1 (he’s already 4/1 on the exchanges), so he is also worth covering for the Matrix.
I did initially think I’d found one for the 3:19 in the shape of Castel Gandolfo - but I’ve cooled a little on him.
It looks as if he’s been plotted up for this race - but I do wonder if he will be quite quick enough…
That said, the application of first time blinkers could help - and he’s a big enough price to warrant a small risk for the Matrix.
Zabeel Champion and Howdoyalikemenow are the obvious alternatives - but they are priced up accordingly…
As I mentioned in the preview, I had ear-marked Tango Boy for the 3:52 - and in his absence, I can’t find anything worthy of support.
Musical Slave is moderately interesting - and if he drifts beyond 5/1 I will have a small bet on him.
However, for official purposes, it’s a watching race…
I would have liked to have been with An Tailliur in the 4:29 - but his price has gone too short at 5/2, and I can’t see it drifting…
There are a few outsiders of interest - with Grosvenor Court probably the most interesting of them all.
He’s unexposed - and can be forgiven his latest run (handicap debut), on account of the soft ground.
He’s a bigger price than I expected and certainly worth covering for the Matrix.
Maid O’Malley and Molly Carew look the 2 to focus on in the 5:01 - but unfortunately they head the betting.
They are completely different sorts - and it’s therefore difficult to choose between them, but I just favour the former.
If she can repeat her last time out run at Cheltenham, she’s a near certainty ! - and even if flattered by that run, her earlier form gives her a good chance.
At around 5/1, in a 9 horse race, she is worth supporting for the Matrix.
I’ve tried to find horses who appear to have been targeted at the meeting - though obviously there is some guesswork involved.
Despite not issuing bets until 10:00, I was very conscious of how weak the markets were.
Only £10K had been matched on Betfair for the opening race - and that means that prices will be particularly sensitive (they will quickly drop).
That said, I think that all of the prices quoted were ‘fair’ - and I would expect them to bounce back, after the initial surge.
Here is the thinking behind todays bets…
Haydock
I’m quite keen on Lime Drop in the opener (2:09).
She’s a mare on the upgrade, who seems to have a really good attitude.
I think she can benefit from todays step up in trip - and at 6/1+, she is a good bet.
Cubswin in the potential fly in the ointment.
She’s almost certainly been targeted at this race - and despite top weight, is fairly handicapped.
She is worth a saver, for the Matrix.
I’d long had Deyrann de Carjac in mind for the 2:44 (since February, in fact !)
However, the fact Alan King runs 3 in the race, has slightly put me off.
In truth, I probably slightly prefer his stablemate, Isolate - but the market prefers him a lot more !
As a consequence, Deyrann has drifted to a big price - and he warrants a risk at around 9/1.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Isolate drift from his early 3/1 (he’s already 4/1 on the exchanges), so he is also worth covering for the Matrix.
I did initially think I’d found one for the 3:19 in the shape of Castel Gandolfo - but I’ve cooled a little on him.
It looks as if he’s been plotted up for this race - but I do wonder if he will be quite quick enough…
That said, the application of first time blinkers could help - and he’s a big enough price to warrant a small risk for the Matrix.
Zabeel Champion and Howdoyalikemenow are the obvious alternatives - but they are priced up accordingly…
As I mentioned in the preview, I had ear-marked Tango Boy for the 3:52 - and in his absence, I can’t find anything worthy of support.
Musical Slave is moderately interesting - and if he drifts beyond 5/1 I will have a small bet on him.
However, for official purposes, it’s a watching race…
I would have liked to have been with An Tailliur in the 4:29 - but his price has gone too short at 5/2, and I can’t see it drifting…
There are a few outsiders of interest - with Grosvenor Court probably the most interesting of them all.
He’s unexposed - and can be forgiven his latest run (handicap debut), on account of the soft ground.
He’s a bigger price than I expected and certainly worth covering for the Matrix.
Maid O’Malley and Molly Carew look the 2 to focus on in the 5:01 - but unfortunately they head the betting.
They are completely different sorts - and it’s therefore difficult to choose between them, but I just favour the former.
If she can repeat her last time out run at Cheltenham, she’s a near certainty ! - and even if flattered by that run, her earlier form gives her a good chance.
At around 5/1, in a 9 horse race, she is worth supporting for the Matrix.
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