Introduction
I made very few changes to the service for the tenth TVB season.
The tips/Best bets had been profitable for the previous 9 seasons - and my main aim was to make it as easy as possible for everyone to follow them.
The official (proofed) bets again consisted of Best bets and Matrix bets - and I continued to only suggest bets in big races; issuing when the markets were relatively mature - and avoiding each way.
The idea being, that all subscribers should have been able to get on all of the suggested bets - regardless of whether they had active bookmaker accounts or needed to use the exchanges.
The belief was that all quoted prices were ‘fair’ - and should have been achievable relatively easily (either immediately - or in the lead up to the race).
I think that the usability objectives were achieved - but almost certainly at the expense of profitability…
Best bets
For the first time in 10 years, the Best bets (formerly tips), were unprofitable to follow - very unprofitable !
Across the course of the season, just 82 Best bets were issued, with 42pts staked.
They incurred a loss 15.25pts (16.28pts at BSP).
The numbers are so bad, they don’t make sense…
If you simply picked out horses at random, you would expect to make a 10-15% loss (the bookmaker margin) - so a loss of more than triple that, suggests either bad luck - or a potential lay system !
Across the entire season, only 7 Best bets won: by contrast, 15 of the Best bets finished second.
This suggests that the Best bets were unlucky - accepting that it is a relatively crude measure.
A better measure of luck, is in-running low prices.
If a horse trades at 2 IR, it has a slightly better than 50:50 chance of winning a race.
18 of the Best bets traded at less than 2 (in fact, less than 1.8) - but only 7 of those won.
This strongly suggests that the Best bets were unlucky and that there should have been 2 or 3 more winners…
The size of the ‘luck’ impact can be estimated, by taking half the profit for every horse that traded at 2 or less IR (regardless of whether it goes on to win).
Doing this, suggests that the Best bets should have made a loss for the season of 4.92pts.
Clearly that’s not great - but it’s a 10pt improvement on what actually happened…
The bottom line however, is that even with the luck taken out, the Best bets were likely to have recorded a loss - so the cost of usability was greater than any profit might have been.
In short, they can’t continue…
Relatively early in the season, I realised this might happen - and sent out an email advising such, in the middle of December.
Ignoring ‘luck’ (variance), the 2 issues which I high-lighted in that email, continued throughout the season:
I limit myself to ‘big’ races, as they have the strongest betting markets, however, small field, uncompetitive races, blighted the season.
Too often, a significant number of the races I looked at, just weren’t suitable for betting.
In those that were suitable for betting, the issue was that ‘value’ prices weren’t there at the time I was issuing.
This tends to be caused by either the plethora of influential tipsters, who mark bookmakers cards, progressively earlier - or the enhanced placed terms in the big handicaps, which mean bookmakers offer poor ‘win’ prices….
As a consequence, on most of the days when I issued bets, I really struggled to find anything worthy of being a Best bet.
This meant that volume was greatly down - and variance was able to have a much bigger impact (and happened to have a negative impact).
Matrix bets
Matrix bets were introduced last season, primarily to support the Best bets.
They come in 3 ‘flavours’:
- savers to cover main dangers to Best bets
- weaker bets which don’t warrant being Best bets
- extensive dutching in big field races
The 3 types of bets were bundled together to provide an offering which could be followed on the exchanges and which I hoped would be reduce the variance with the Best bets.
Across the course of the season, 325 Matrix bets were issued, with 451 units staked - and at BSP, they made a profit of 38.5 units.
There were 34 winners - which means they had a bigger winning percentage than the Best bets (which really shouldn’t have happened)
In terms of profitability, then it’s a reasonable return - despite them also experiencing very poor luck towards the end of the season (somebody up there had clearly got it in for me !).
From Cheltenham onwards, there were 19 Matrix bets that traded at less than 2 - and only 6 of them won.
That suggests they were 3 or 4 winners short of where they should have been during that period.
Most of the 13 losers were at double digit prices, including horses with BSPs of 25, 40 & 27.
It’s fair to say that the profits from the Matrix bets could have been much greater.
I’m not sure how things fared luck wise, in the earlier part of the season (the sheer volume of Matrix bets - and the fact their main purpose was to reduce variance - meant that I wasn’t as focused on them), though I do recall a number of near misses (accepting that they do tend to be more memorable !).
Interestingly, the profits on the Matrix bets weren’t as great at CEP (current exchange price at the time of issue).
Profits at CEP were 17 units - though they were hit much harder by the poor luck at the end of the season (the profit at CEP was 60 units, prior to Cheltenham).
Unlike the Best bets, the suggestion was that the Matrix bets could be followed profitably - though their reliance on exchange liquidity, makes them particularly vulnerable to market strength…
Unofficial bets and the forum
There were very few unofficial bets, this season.
I did cover some mid-week races, in the pre-Christmas period - but there was nothing suitable in January or February (and I was looking !); whilst the spring festivals of March and April, are covered by the official bets.
I also decided against offering any ante-post suggestions - though George handled this area very well in the early part of the season.
He suggested a number of excellent bets - but luck didn’t smile on him either, which is always a danger with ante-post betting (high risk, for potentially big reward).
The forum was held together by Chris, and his Cache.
The Cache was born in the TVB off-season - and has been evolving ever since.
It’s now a comprehensive table, which Chris produces every day, for every handicap - ranking runners by CSR.
It’s a hugely valuable resource which can be used by anyone looking for a quick route into a race.
Both Craig and Francis created profitable threads, on which they posted selections throughout the season.
Craigs ‘trainer change’ thread hit a 125/1 winner with its third selection, so had the season sorted very early !
Whilst Francis’s ‘Stable whispers’ thread, has consistently hit winners throughout the season, and has a ROI of almost 100%, at BSP.
There were also a couple of competitions run in the forum:
Gags retained his title in the December Naps competition - which was again run by Hayden.
Whilst Hayden himself was the main winner in the Cheltenham Tipping competition, run again this year, by Craig…
The other main activities in the forum, were connected to the core TVB offering.
Previews/reviews were posted for all of the official bet days.
The previews were posted the day before racing and were designed to provide early pointers on the big races; whilst the reviews enabled me to give my perspective on how the days action had unfolded (which too often this season, was not how I had hoped !)
I also ran Live threads in the forum, for all of the big betting days.
The theory is that it gives me a late opportunity to offer my views, having had chance to assess the ground and consider late market moves.
It’s certainly useful from a ground perspective - but reading late market moves is never easy (and many of the key ones, are extremely late).
Does a drifter now represent ‘value’ or is it a red flag ? Unfortunately, it tends to vary from horse to horse, only becoming obvious after the event…
Plans for next season
It’s fair to say that this season didn’t go as I’d hoped.
The Best bets are the service flagship - so having them record such an horrendous loss, begs plenty of questions…
Most of you will have followed the Best bets and therefore lost money - and that doesn’t sit well with me.
Their poor results also impacted the general service vibe - and unsurprisingly, the forum was more downbeat than it’s been in previous seasons.
We all know that it’s called ‘gambling’ for a reason - but that doesn’t make losing feel any better….
On the flip side, I am confident that a chunk of the issue, was simply down to poor luck (variance).
However, the Best bets didn’t have enough of an edge to cope with the ill fortune.
By contrast, the Matrix bets did have sufficient edge to be able to deal with the bad luck - and that gives me hope.
My feeling is that the Matrix represents the path forward - with the Best bets incorporated into it.
This seasons Best bets would have dragged it down (probably to a loss) - however, I suspect that would have been offset to an extent, by more effective staking.
Going forward, my main concern with the Matrix, is that it is based around exchange prices - and it may prove difficult for a lot of people to secure these.
Clearly, there are significant unknowns/concerns for this as a path, so I would need to trial it for a few weeks, in order to see whether it could work.
My current thinking is that I would run the service from Nov 1st until Christmas - and only offer enhanced Matrix bets (as official bets).
I wouldn’t charge for this period - or accept any new subscribers onto the service.
If it worked, then I would charge for the 4 months from Jan-Apr inclusive.
The rest of the service (unofficial bets and the forum) would remain pretty much as is - I don’t think there are any major issues in those areas.
So that’s just about it.
I’d like to thank the guys who have continued to support the service (obviously headed by Chris - but also including Francis, Craig, Hayden & George) - but above all, I’d like to thank all of you for sticking with me through what has been a tough 6 months.
I’m sure that some of you have lost a lot of money - and for many of the new guys, the service will have been a huge disappointment.
I can only apologise if that’s the case - and assure you that I gave everything I could throughout.
Hopefully you’ll all have a good summer - and most of you will join me again in the autumn, when I’ll try to plot a slightly different path to profit !
TVB.
