Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Cheltenham

1:05
Milanford 0.5pt win 11/1

2:50
Optimise Prime 0.5pt win 16/1

Matrix bets

Cheltenham

1:05
Two Taffs 1 unit win CEP 27 FP 21

2:15
Al Dancer 3 units win CEP 7.6 FP 8
Lalor 2 units win CEP 9.4 FP 9
Midnight Shadow 2 units win CEP 14 FP 11
Protektorat 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 10
Deyran de Carjac 1 unit win CEP 50 FP 26

2:50
Onagatheringstorm 2 units win CEP 7.2 FP 7

It was nice to have a tipping morning, on which there were no technical issues !
More than that, no overnight rain at Cheltenham left me with minimal ground doubts in my mind.
A rare treat !

There were a couple of late NRs in the 2 races I wanted to attack - but in the grand scheme of things, I can accept that as an occupational hazard.
The markets had just about re-formed and stabilised by 9:00, so the impact was minimal.

I ended up issuing a couple of Best bets - and a few others to support them on the Matrix.
I’m pretty keen on the first of the Best bets - and whilst the second is more risky, I do feel he could be significantly over-priced.

Just a quick reminder that I will run a Live thread in the forum this afternoon - starting at 1:00.
That’s after the first race - but I need a bit of time to look at tomorrows cards !

Here’s the thinking behind todays bets:


Cheltenham

I was never likely to tackle the juvenile hurdle which opens the card (12:30).
I’ve had a small bet myself, on Addosh - but more in hope, than expectation.
Magistrato is the most likely winner - but he’s certainly not bomb proof.
Knight Salute is a danger - but he’s the second fav.

I’m pretty keen on Milanford in the 1:05.
Partly because I think he’s a potentially progressive, well handicapped horse - and partly because I expect him to benefit from a front running ride.
You really can’t under-estimate the importance of racing prominently in these kind of races - particularly when inexperienced amateurs are involved.
Milanford has one of the most experienced jockeys on board - and I really hope that he grasps the nettle and looks to make all.
If he does, then I think he will take a bit of passing…
The 3 horses at the top of the betting are all potential dangers - but if one of them wins, then so be it.
However, I want to save on Two Taffs for the Matrix.
He is potentially very well handicapped - and whilst I question his ability to stay the trip, at a big price, he’s worth a small risk.

I briefly considered taking on Third Time Lucki in the 1:40, with Mick Pastor.
On the book, he has a real chance of upsetting the favourite - and his odds seem a bit too generous…
In truth, that’s part of the issue - as I suspect this could be the start of a long term project, to get Mick Pastors mark down (and make him competitive in the big spring handicaps).
I could be wrong - and if he comes in for late support, I might join in.
However, as things stand, I feel it has to be a watching race…

How to best tackle the Paddy Power gold cup (2:15) ?!
It really is a ferocious looking race - and whilst I could be quite keen on Al Dancer, I would want a price to make him a Best bet - and it’s not really there (certainly, with the bookies)…
Lalor is potentially a huge danger: whilst Midnight Shadow looks sure to run a really big race and Protektorat is the potential fly in the ointment.
I think all 4 are worth covering in a Matrix on the exchanges - getting the best prices you can.
Deyrann de Carjac is an outsider that I could see spoiling the party - and he is also worth covering in the Matrix.
I would hope that the 5 of them will give us close to a 50:50 chance of being on the winner - so try to get that reflected in your staking..

I’m quite keen to take on Proschema in the 2:50 because I don’t think he’ll get home.
I’ve no doubt he will travel like the wrath of god - but getting up the hill will be a different matter.
The sensible thing with him, would be a pre-race back - and lay IR (at around 2).
If he wins on the bridle, then so be it - but if he gets into a fight, I’ll want to be with his opponent !
I’ve made Optimise Prime a Best bet because I think he could be significantly over-priced.
He has questions marks over him (fitness and stable form) - but he also has loads of potential.
Ben Pauling has been quiet - but the season is only just getting going, so maybe that’s not too surprising.
Optimise Prime is certainly a risky bet - but he’s also a value bet…
Onagatheringstorm is less risky - and he is certainly worth covering in the Matrix.
He ran well last time and if he can build on that, he should be right in the mix.

I reckon I could have put up half a dozen different ones in the 3:25 - and that tells me it’s a race best left alone !
Mackelduff, Good Time Jonny, Gowel Road and Benson, all came under consideration.
However, not only have they all got chances - but so too have virtually all of the outsiders - and I’ve not even mentioned the favourite !
In short, it has to be a watching race (even tho I know I’ll regret not putting up the winner, immediately after it crosses the line !).

As with the opener, the finale (3:55) was never a race that I was going to get involved with.
I’ve had a small bet on Wheres Maud Gone, as I think she’s just about the most likely winner.
I’ve also had a speculative few quid on Fairy Tree.
However, both bets are more in hope than expectation…