Monday, November 29, 2021

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Newbury

1:15
Ofalltheginjoints 0.5pt win 12/1

1:50
Annsam 0.5pt win 12/1 

3:35
Il Ridoto 1pt win 9/2


Matrix bets

Newbury

1:50
Boreham Bill 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11

2:25
Onemorefortheroad 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 7


Newcastle

2:05
Cool Mix 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11


After a month of calm, the weather has gone crazy in the last 24 hours - and it’s anyones guess what kind of conditions we’ll see today…

From what I can tell, there has only been 3mm of rain overnight at Newbury - so I’m not expecting things to be much different from yesterday.
However, Newcastle is a different matter…
High winds seem to be the main issue - but there has also been a lot of rain.
I would guess that the ground will be on the soft side - but if it is heavy, I won’t be massively surprised.

As a consequence, I’ve focused the suggested bets on Newbury - there must be a chance that Newcastle won’t even go ahead…

I’ve ended up with 3 best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.
The markets did seem surprisingly fragile this morning (for a Saturday) - and I can only think that’s down to the weather uncertainty (the layers not keen to commit, with conditions likely to change).

Just a reminder that I’ll run a Live thread in the forum this afternoon: http://tvb-forum.133.s1.nabble.com/

Here’s my thoughts on todays suggested bets:


Newbury

Killer Clown in the solid option in the 1:15 - but he’s plenty short enough at 5/1, and definitely beatable.
Ofalltheginjoints could be a very well handicapped horse.
He won at Exeter, off a 2lb higher mark a year ago - and ran really well at Aintree in the spring, off a mark 7lb higher.
I thought he was going to win the Badger Beer last time - but he didn’t get home in his first time blinkers.
He should be more amenable to them today - and has 3 furlongs less to travel.
Provided there are no issues with his breathing (and that is a slight concern), then I think he will take a lot of beating.
At 12/1 (ish) he is a good bet.

I wanted to tip Boreham Bill in the 1:50 - but I was beaten to the punch and the price was wrecked.
To be honest, that happens a lot (and I mean a lot !) - so I was forced to re-examine the race…
Watching Boreham Bills last run at Kempton, I was struck by how well Annsam travelled.
He looked the most likely winner turning in - but didn’t quite get home.
As that was his first run of the year, I would expect him to come on for it.
He is 2lb worse off with Boreham Bill - but that’s ignoring Isabel Williams 5lb claim.
In short, there should be little between the pair - and as Annsam was 3 or 4 points bigger, I felt he was worth a risk.
I’ll save on Borham Bill - as his price is likely to drift.
I’d also like to save on Masters Legacy - but his price has gone too short (it’s a competitive race).

Soaring Glory should really win the 2:25 - but…
It may get tactical - and if that happens, Onemorefortheroad, is the most likely beneficiary.
In the circumstances, he is worth covering for the Matrix…

I’m struggling to look beyond Elcat de Rire in the Ladbroke trophy (3:00) - but I can’t bring myself to suggest him at 7/2.
I think he is a graded performer in a handicap - and as I’ve said many times before, when that happens, they tend to win.
Even if something goes wrong for him, I think the most likely beneficiaries are the horses immediately behind him, in the market.
As a consequence, it’s hard to see a way into the race….
If you can bet EW with extra places, then Mister Malarkey and Cloudy Glen are both worth considering.
However, I’m going to swerve the race, officially speaking…

I’m really hoping that Il Ridoto can take the finale (3:35).
My feeling is that he could be absolutely thrown in, off a mark of 131 - and with an 8lb age allowance.
He ran really well on his UK debut - and the form of that race couldn’t have worked out better.
Even if he just matches that effort, I think he will take a lot of beating - and he could well improve for it.
All of the others are relatively exposed - with Frero Banbou the most interesting.
I would have been very tempted by him at an opening price (10/1) - but that price has now halved.


Newcastle

I’ve not got a strong view on the 1:30 race.
Valleres sets a fair standard - but I won’t be backing him at even money.
The outsider, Winds of Fire, is probably the value bet in the race - but I’m just guessing…

I was pretty keen on Glen Forsa in the 2:05 - but yet again, his price has been destroyed.
12/1 last night is now 4/1 - and that’s way too short…
Uncertainty over conditions, makes it a hard race to play in, but I would expect Cool Mix to run well again (he was third in the race last year) - and he’s worth a small play for the Matrix.

Again, the uncertainty makes it very hard to get involved with the ‘Fighting fifth’ (3:15).
Epatante is the class horse - with Monmiral the unknown.
The race is likely to be won by one of the pair - though if the going is very deep, Not so Sleepy just might be able to steal it from the front.
However, I’m not prepared to make him an official bet.
I’ll look again nearer the off, for the Live thread - by which time, I should have a better feel for conditions.

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