Best bets
Cheltenham1:10
Undersupervision 0.5pt win 6/1 (down to 5/1 is acceptable)
1:45
The Mighty Don 0.5pt win 9/2 (down to 4/1 is acceptable
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
2:55
Galice Macalo 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 15
West Cork 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11
Bua Boy 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 15
Maries Rock 1 unit win CEP 34 FP 21
Ballyandy 1 unit win CEP 40 FP 26
Cheltenham
2:55
Galice Macalo 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 15
West Cork 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 11
Bua Boy 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 15
Maries Rock 1 unit win CEP 34 FP 21
Ballyandy 1 unit win CEP 40 FP 26
The final day of the Cheltenham November meeting, and again,
there aren’t too many betting opportunities…
Most of the fields are very small - with the one notable exception ! - and that’s not ideal for betting purposed.
That said, the biggest issue I’m having is with the prices going overnight.
I’ve lost count of the number of horses which I could have been interested in, that have literally halved in price from the evening before.
To an extent, it’s the nature of the game: the bookmakers price up early with their best guesses - and knowledgeable punters then knock the markets into shape.
The problem I have, is that my expectations are set based on those early prices - and it can be difficult to completely adjust your thinking in the morning, when the price has been destroyed.
Anyway…
I’ve managed to find a couple of Best bets for the day - and had a dabble in the Greatwood, for the Matrix.
The price of one of the Best bets did almost half overnight - but I felt there was still sufficient value left in it.
Here's my thinking…
Cheltenham
In the opener (1:10) I’d struggle to choose between Threeunderthrufive, Does he Know and Undersupervision, so at twice the price of the other 2, the last named has to be the selection.
The danger is Oscar Elite - and if the price had been there, I may well have gone with him (or at least covered on him).
However, his early 4/1 is now 9/4 - and that’s too short.
Undersupervision is the value bet - let’s hope he can turn that ‘value’ into hard cash !
I feel like I can get a good handle on the 1:45 race (and I always like it when that happens !).
Yala Enki will probably lead - though he could get harried by both Rockys Treasure and Go Another One.
Such a scenario would play into the hands of the other 2 runners.
Empire du Maulde is hard to assess - but the market is taking no chances.
The Might Don has to be the play in the race.
Not only could it be run to suit him, but he is potentially well handicapped (if you include the claim of his very capable jockey).
I do have a slight worry about him coming up the hill - but I think that is factored into the price.
I believe he has a better than 1 in 4 chance of winning - so a price of 4/1 (or better) represents value…
The 2:20 is an impossible race to call.
Put the Kettle on is the solid one - but she’s beatable.
Nube Negra is the one most likely to beat her - but his price reflects that.
Politologue theoretically, has a good chance - but there must be a possibility that he’s starting to decline; whilst Rouge Vif could also be given a chance - but I suspect Nicholls won’t have him fully revved up.
Ultimately, too much guesswork is required, to justify taking a risk at any of the available prices.
It should be a good race to watch tho !
I’ve turned the Greatwood (2:55) round a dozen times - and I keep on finding a different fancy.
As I said yesterday, when that happens, I think it is generally best to leave the race alone…
That said, I am instinctively against plenty at the top of the market - not because I think they can’t win - but because I think their chances are little better than some of the longer priced runners.
As a consequence, I’ve attacked the race with a half-hearted Matrix !
My 5 against the field are:
Galice Macalo, Ballyandy, Maries Rock, West Cork and Bua Boy.
I could easily have missed the winner - in fact, I might not even get one placed !
That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the 5 won - and they all represent some value at the current exchange prices.
I like to Move it should probably win the 3:30 - but he’s odds on to do so, against 2 unexposed rivals, so certainly not a betting proposition
The 4:00 also makes no appeal as betting medium.
If forced off the fence, I’d go with Flying Sara - but it would be pure guesswork.
Punchestown
Just 4 now go to post for the 12:30 - and again, it’s not really a betting race.
I like Vanillier best - and 2/1 probably isn’t a bad price.
That said, it’s a price I’m happy to watch him win at…
The absence of Abrcadabras detracts a little from the Mogiana (2:05).
Echoes in Rain is too short at 5/4 - but she will probably win !
Sharjah could well need the run: whilst Zanahiyr will have his work cut out, as a 4 year old taking on older horses.
He’s the value bet in the race - but I can resist him at 4/1…
Most of the fields are very small - with the one notable exception ! - and that’s not ideal for betting purposed.
That said, the biggest issue I’m having is with the prices going overnight.
I’ve lost count of the number of horses which I could have been interested in, that have literally halved in price from the evening before.
To an extent, it’s the nature of the game: the bookmakers price up early with their best guesses - and knowledgeable punters then knock the markets into shape.
The problem I have, is that my expectations are set based on those early prices - and it can be difficult to completely adjust your thinking in the morning, when the price has been destroyed.
Anyway…
I’ve managed to find a couple of Best bets for the day - and had a dabble in the Greatwood, for the Matrix.
The price of one of the Best bets did almost half overnight - but I felt there was still sufficient value left in it.
Here's my thinking…
Cheltenham
In the opener (1:10) I’d struggle to choose between Threeunderthrufive, Does he Know and Undersupervision, so at twice the price of the other 2, the last named has to be the selection.
The danger is Oscar Elite - and if the price had been there, I may well have gone with him (or at least covered on him).
However, his early 4/1 is now 9/4 - and that’s too short.
Undersupervision is the value bet - let’s hope he can turn that ‘value’ into hard cash !
I feel like I can get a good handle on the 1:45 race (and I always like it when that happens !).
Yala Enki will probably lead - though he could get harried by both Rockys Treasure and Go Another One.
Such a scenario would play into the hands of the other 2 runners.
Empire du Maulde is hard to assess - but the market is taking no chances.
The Might Don has to be the play in the race.
Not only could it be run to suit him, but he is potentially well handicapped (if you include the claim of his very capable jockey).
I do have a slight worry about him coming up the hill - but I think that is factored into the price.
I believe he has a better than 1 in 4 chance of winning - so a price of 4/1 (or better) represents value…
The 2:20 is an impossible race to call.
Put the Kettle on is the solid one - but she’s beatable.
Nube Negra is the one most likely to beat her - but his price reflects that.
Politologue theoretically, has a good chance - but there must be a possibility that he’s starting to decline; whilst Rouge Vif could also be given a chance - but I suspect Nicholls won’t have him fully revved up.
Ultimately, too much guesswork is required, to justify taking a risk at any of the available prices.
It should be a good race to watch tho !
I’ve turned the Greatwood (2:55) round a dozen times - and I keep on finding a different fancy.
As I said yesterday, when that happens, I think it is generally best to leave the race alone…
That said, I am instinctively against plenty at the top of the market - not because I think they can’t win - but because I think their chances are little better than some of the longer priced runners.
As a consequence, I’ve attacked the race with a half-hearted Matrix !
My 5 against the field are:
Galice Macalo, Ballyandy, Maries Rock, West Cork and Bua Boy.
I could easily have missed the winner - in fact, I might not even get one placed !
That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the 5 won - and they all represent some value at the current exchange prices.
I like to Move it should probably win the 3:30 - but he’s odds on to do so, against 2 unexposed rivals, so certainly not a betting proposition
The 4:00 also makes no appeal as betting medium.
If forced off the fence, I’d go with Flying Sara - but it would be pure guesswork.
Punchestown
Just 4 now go to post for the 12:30 - and again, it’s not really a betting race.
I like Vanillier best - and 2/1 probably isn’t a bad price.
That said, it’s a price I’m happy to watch him win at…
The absence of Abrcadabras detracts a little from the Mogiana (2:05).
Echoes in Rain is too short at 5/4 - but she will probably win !
Sharjah could well need the run: whilst Zanahiyr will have his work cut out, as a 4 year old taking on older horses.
He’s the value bet in the race - but I can resist him at 4/1…
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