The 3 day Cheltenham ‘November’ meeting gets underway tomorrow - whilst there is also NH racing at Worcester.
Until a few years ago, the meeting was called ‘The Open’ - but apparently that caused confusion with the golf tournament of the same name !
I must admit, I always struggled to work out which one was which…
The racing looks likely to start on good ground - which is almost unheard of.
In fact, they were watering earlier in the week - tho I don’t know to what extent.
I guess we’ll find out tomorrow…
It’s always great to see action at Cheltenham - but tomorrows card is a little disappointing (certainly from a betting perspective).
There are only 6 races - and the card is topped and tailed by a couple of impossible looking handicap hurdles.
Two of the remaining 4 races are small field novice events - one of which will only see 2 go to post (hopefully !).
As a consequence, there are only a couple of races in which I’ve any chance of finding a strong bet…
Still, it is what it is.
I’ve previewed all 6 races - and will see what bets I can find in the morning.
I’ll aim to issue any Best bets, just after 9:00; with the Matrix bets issued around 10:30…
Cheltenham
1:10
This is the first of 2 big field handicap hurdles - with this one, restricted to conditional jockeys.
Plenty of the runners are also relatively unexposed, so a lot of guesswork is required…
The Paul Nicholls trained Skatman heads the market.
He’s unbeaten in 2 races over hurdles - and will be making his handicap debut.
The 2 horses that chased him home last time at Newton Abbot, have since gone on to win, suggesting his opening make of 122 could be very lenient.
An Tailliur is next in the betting.
He’s won his last 5 races over hurdles - all of them in handicaps.
He was clearly given a very generous opening mark - and has taken full advantage of it !
Whether he can improve further and defy a mark of 125, remains to be seen - but you couldn’t confidently bet against it.
Art Approval ran well on his seasonal debut at the October meeting.
That was in a similar race to this (in terms of class) and he finished a creditable fourth.
Off a mark 1lb lower - and with the run under his belt, he should run well.
Away from the head of the market, it’s interesting to see that Emmet McNamara has brought over Groveman.
His chance isn’t obvious, based on his runs in Irish handicaps - but Irish horses have to be respected - and McNamara doesn’t have many runners at Cheltenham.
Enemenemynemo (pronounced as in the nursery rhyme !) has only run twice over hurdles in a couple of novice events last season.
He ran a nice race at Perth, in the second of them - and assuming he is fit enough to do himself justice, I could see him running well tomorrow.
The Wrekin disappointed on his seasonal debut at Chepstow - but that was in a hot race and dropped in company, he may be able to do better tomorrow.
He won 3 novice events on the bounce at the end of last season - and if he can pick up that thread, he should do much better tomorrow.
1:45
The first of 2 races, in which I’ve half a chance of finding a strong bet !
That said, I’ll be a little surprised if the race isn’t won by one of the 3 markets leaders..
Stolen Silver just about heads the market.
He won well on his seasonal debut at Market Rasen last month. That was also his first run for Sam Thomas - and whilst the only beat 2 rivals, he still looked good, in making all.
Clearly tomorrow will be a very different test for him - but he looked an improved horse - and even on last years form, he’s not too badly handicapped.
Editeur de Gite also ran very well on his seasonal debut last month.
That was at Ascot, and whilst he was just about beaten when unseating at the final fence - he lost little in defeat.
He jumped markedly to the left that day - losing ground at every fence. He should therefore benefit from a switch to a left hand course tomorrow…
He will also benefit from the 5lb claim of jockey, Niall Houllihan.
It remains to be seen how he will take to Cheltenham - and he could be pressed for the lead by Stolen Silver - but despite those concerns, I still think he has a good chance.
Magic Saint is the third of the market leaders.
He won this race 12 months ago - second time out, off a mark of 152, with a 5lb claimer on board….
Everything is precisely the same tomorrow - so he is clearly the one to beat.
The question is simply whether Stolen Silver or Editeur de Gite can progress past him (because he does set a fairly high standard).
Of the Others, then Kap Auteuil clearly has a chance, seeking a five timer - though I suspect he won’t be quite good/quick enough.
I also find it quite interesting, that Dan Skelton is prepared to turn out Hatcher, less than a week after he ran in the Elite hurdle at Wincanton.
He caught my eye that day, travelling strongly behind the leaders.
The only trouble is, on chase form he isn’t particularly well handicapped - so he may have to wait a little while longer for his turn.
2:20
It was disappointing to see just 3 horses declared for this race at the overnight stage - and then one of them was taken out !
As a consequence, we are left with a match, as the feature race on the card - which is far from ideal…
In fairness, one of the runners is My Drogo.
He was the highest rated English trained novice hurdler last season - and expectations are high, that he’ll make an even better chaser this season.
In truth, it’s his presence that is likely to have caused such a small field.
Very few trainers will want to take him on - particularly after the way his supposedly inferior stablemate, Third Time Lucki, destroyed the opposition on his chasing debut at the October meeting.
If My Drogo is indeed superior to him, then it’s hard to think that he won’t take very high rank in the novice division - but until we’ve seen him jump a fence, we are guessing…
His sole rival, Gin On Lime has jumped plenty of fences - and shown herself very good at it.
She has won 4 of her 7 chase starts - and was particularly impressive when hammering Fan de Blues last time out at Tipperary.
Rachael Blackmore is almost guaranteed to try and make all on Gin On Lime, winding up the pace and putting pressure on the jumping of My Drogo.
The question will be whether he has sufficient class to match her - ideally without coming off the bridle !
I suspect he will - though I won’t be betting on it !
2:55
With 5 of the runners at least 5lb out of the handicap, this 13 runner race is probably more an 8 runner race.
That’s the good news - however narrowing down the 8, is a bit trickier..!
Top weight, Balco des Flos, looks quite harshly treated, as he’s been raised 9lb for finishing runner up in last seasons Grand National.
That said, he’s a former Grade 1 winner (Ryanair chase), who has been rated much higher in the past.
He’ll appreciate the quick ground and drop in trip (compared to Aintree).
He’s also likely to strip fitter, following a pipe open over hurdles at Galway last month.
It’s fair to say, there are 2 ways he can be viewed !
Diesel D’allier won this race in 2019.
He runs off a mark 12lb higher tomorrow - but I suspect he can cope with that.
However, he will be making both his seasonal debut and his debut for a new trainer (Richard Bandey).
How that will work out, is tough to say…
Talkischeap is another one making his seasonal/stable debut (for Martin Keighley).
He won the 2019 Bet365 chase when trained by Alan King - and if he can repeat that form - and provided he handles the banks course - then he must have every chance.
Again though, a lot of guesswork is required…
Back of the Lash is also trained by Martin Keighley - and he too will be making his cross country debut.
He’s still a novice - and it’s unusual for novices to run in these kind of races.
However, Keighley does like to have winners at Cheltenham (his local track) and also has his string in particularly good form.
Potters Corner won the 2019 Welsh Grand National - and should have every chance tomorrow off a mark 5lb lower.
He finished third in this race 12 months ago - and is likely to have benefited from a recent pipe opener over hurdles.
The issue with him is that he would prefer softer ground - and there is a possibility that he will get outpaced on relatively quick ground.
Plan of Action, Alpha des Obeaux and Freewheelin Dylan have all come over from Ireland - and can each be given a chance.
If Irish National winner, Freewheelin Dylan takes to the course, then he could certainly go well.
That said, he’s not run since July, so his fitness has to be taken on trust…
3:30
This is not a race which I have a particularly strong view on…
Gelino Bello has been installed a short priced favourite - and I can understand that.
He finished third in a particularly hot bumper at Newbury in February - and was then quite impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Aintree last month.
As the old saying goes, he could be anything - whilst the fact he is trained by Paul Nicholls, is never going to help the price !
His main rivals tomorrow are both Irish trained.
Off Your Roco represents Gordon Elliott - and has won 4 of his 5 races under rules.
His only defeat came when he ran no sort of a race at Galway in the summer.
That run was too bad to be true (last of 7) - and if you ignore it, then he has an impressive profile.
That said, he has to concede 5lb to Gelino Bello and he may struggle to do that.
Blazing Khal represents Charles Byrnes and he won on his hurdling debut at Galway last month.
He appeared to have limitations when running in bumpers - but may well be significantly better over hurdles.
Current Mood, Glencassley and Kayf Hernando are all recent winners over hurdles, who could easily improve.
It’s very hard to choose between them, with Current Mood possibly being the most interesting.
She has won both of her races for Evan Williams and receives weight from all of her rivals tomorrow…
4:00
This is the second ultra competitive handicap on the card - and this time, it is the horses rather than the jockeys, who lack experience….
20 novices - many running in a handicap for the first time.
It’s another race in which it’s impossible to be confident…
City Derby just about heads the early betting - for Fergal and Paddy.
He will be having his first run in a handicap after a couple of runs in novice events.
An opening mark of 111 appears reasonable enough - even if he’ll have to improve in order to defy it.
Broson has a very similar profile.
He too is making his handicap debut after a couple of runs in novice events.
He finished runner up in a fair race at the October meeting - so has proven himself over the course.
His opening mark is 6lb higher than that of City Derby - but he might be up to defying it…
In truth, I could just work myself through the field, offering reasons why each runner had a chance - but that wouldn’t get us very far !
A couple caught my eye at bigger prices:
The first is Sashenka for Michael Scudamore.
She ran really well last time at Hereford, when just edged out of things close home by Peltwell.
That was her first try in a handicap over hurdles - though she showed fair form in handicaps on the flat, in the spring.
Her flat mark is 81 - which translated to jumps should mean she is capable of running to around 125.
She actually runs tomorrow off a mark of 116 - so could have 10lb in hand…
The other one to particularly catch my eye, is Belgoprince.
He is trained in Ireland by Tony Martin - so comes with all sorts of warnings !
That said, he was a comfortable winner of a big field flat handicap at Navan on his latest start and is now rated 70 on the flat over there.
Again, translating that to NH, suggests he should be able to run to a mark of around 115 - in Ireland.
In England, that would equate to a mark in the low 120s.
He runs off 105 tomorrow - so could have a stone in hand.
If that is the case, don’t expect the early 14/1 to last very long !!
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