There are 4 NH meetings scheduled for tomorrow: at Wincanton, Aintree, Kelso and Naas.
There will be some good racing taking place - but it is next weekend, at Cheltenham, when the NH season will really get into full stride…
That said, tomorrows Aintree meeting has been pumped up a fair bit over the past few years - and is now at least the equal of the Wincanton one, in terms of quality.
In fairness, both are quite reasonable - and I’m optimistic that I’ll be able to find a few bets in the morning (you’ll all doubtless be pleased to hear that my technology issues also appear to be a thing of the past :) )
I’ll preview all of the races that will be televised by ITV - plus a couple of others on the Aintree card.
Best bets will be issued, just after 9:00 in the morning…
Wincanton
1:50
Bravemansgame will potentially be the best horse on show tomorrow.
He was a high class novice hurdler last season - only losing out to Bob Olinger and Gaillard du Mesnil at Cheltenham, and Ahoy Senor at Aintree.
However, he always look likely to take higher rank over fences, so it was no surprise to see him win on his chasing debut at Newton abbot.
What was slightly surprising, was the way he shrugged off the more experienced Fusil Raffles and The Big Breakaway.
He was admittedly receiving 12lb from the pair - but they were both placed in novice events at the Cheltenham festival last season.
As chasing debuts go, they don’t get much better…
Maybe understandably, he has been installed very short for tomorrows race - but he is likely to take a lot of beating.
The Dan Skelton trained Falvoir is second fav in the early market - and I’ve no doubt he will do his very best to upset the favourite.
However, his form looks a fair way short of that of Bravemansgame - and I suspect a bigger danger could come from Mick Pastor.
He’s a stablemate of Bravemansgame, and it strikes me as a little odd that Paul Nichols has put them in against each other.
Maybe one will be pulled out if the ground isn’t right (Bravemansgame would want it soft, whilst Mick Pastor would want it good).
Mick Pastor has won 4 starts over the summer - and been impressive on each occasion.
However, he has only beaten a total of 7 horses - so it’s probably best not to get carried away with his form !
That said, his penultimate win in an open handicap, looks solid enough - and he dotted up that day (from 3 established handicappers).
Even in receipt of 3lb, I wouldn’t expect him to beat Bravemansgame - but if the fav is a NR, then he is likely to be an able deputy…
2:25
This is a race that Paul Nichols likes to win and he fields 2 runners, in the shape of Eglantine de Seuil and Cut the Mustard.
Eglantine is a former Cheltenham festival winner, who made her debut for Nichols in this race last season.
She could only finish fifth that day - but was running off a 6lb higher mark and making her seasonal.
Her 6 most recent runs have been over fences - but despite winning a couple of races over the bigger obstacles, its not a great surprise to see her return to hurdles tomorrow.
She will be ridden by 7lb claimer, Angus Cheleda - whilst stable jockey, Harry Cobden will be on board Cut the Mustard.
She only joined Nichols last season and has run just 5 times, whilst in his care.
All of those runs have been over fences - and she is yet to taste success.
however, she has been running well - and I doubt the switch to hurdles will be an issue for her.
It would be no surprise to see Rose of Arcadia put in an improved effort tomorrow.
She showed plenty of promise last season - and was sent off fav for a good mares race at Newbury on her final run of the season.
She only managed to finished fifth in that race - but looked the likely winner, at the second last.
She’s trained by Colin Tizzard and virtually all of his horses struggled last season.
However, most are running much better this campaign - and if she shows any improvement, she’ll be right in the mix.
It’s not surprising to see Une de la Seniere heading the early market on the back of a comfortable first time out win at Ludlow.
However, this is a tougher contest - and she has to run from a 6lb higher mark.
Wynn House, Emmpressive Lady and Belle de Maneche, are all potential improvers.
However, they are all also making their seasonal debuts, so their fitness has to be taken on trust…
3:00
When I first looked at this race on Tuesday, Cap du Nord and Hurricane Harvey were the 2 who stood out.
Both were 12/1 shots at the time - but they are now half that price…
Whether they represent any value at their current odds, is debatable - but I still think they are the most likely winners of the race…
Cap du Nord has dropped to a mark just 2lb higher than he ran from when runner up to Royal Pagaille at Kempton in December.
He bumped into an exceptionally well handicapped winner that day - and it was nearly 20 lengths back to the third (who himself, won next time out).
Cap du Nord had a nice spin round at Chepstow last month, presumably with a view to putting an edge on him for tomorrow.
He had a similar preparation last season, before winning second time out at Newbury.
Granted luck in running (he tends to be held up in his races), he should prove hard to beat.
Hurricane Harvey looks a big danger.
He’s has a touch of class about him and won a grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster last December.
He disappointed in 2 subsequent runs last season - but as with Cap du Nord, ran a nice enough race on his seasonal debut at October.
He was dropped 3lb for finishing fourth to Paint the Dream over an inadequate trip - and if he has progressed as expected from that run, he will go very close.
I think those 2 set a very high standard - but there are a couple of others who I could also see going well.
Cobra de Mai finished third in the race that Cap du Nord ran in at Chepstow - and in theory, should confirm that form.
I’m not entirely convinced that’s how it will work out - but I could still see Cobra de Mai running well, on what will be his third run for Caroline Bailey.
He is now potentially very well handicapped (he’s won off a mark over a stone higher than he runs off tomorrow) - and Bailey should have a better feel for the horse after his first couple of outings.
The final one on the short list is Ofalltheginjoints.
He threatened to be a really good novice last season - but like so many of Colin TIzzards, ultimately disappointed.
He showed little on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Uttoxeter - but back over fences tomorrow, I would expect him to leave that run behind.
He was sent of 5/4 fav in the Doncaster race won by Hurricane Harvey - which gives an idea of how highly he is rated.
If he can recover his form, then off a relatively lowly mark, he just might have the class to beat them all !
3:35
The betting suggests this race should rest between the 2 top weights: Goshen and Sceau Royal - and I’m inclined to agree.
The pair have to give at least a couple of pounds to all of their rivals (6lb to a few of them) - but on adjusted handicap ratings, they should be able to do that.
An argument can be made for the chance of each - though I suspect that the ground will ultimately be the deciding factor.
On soft ground, Goshen would be the selection - but the likely good ground, tips the scales in favour of Sceau Royal.
He also has the benefit of a run this season - when he beat Silver Streak at Kempton.
That’s strong form - and its debatable whether even a top form Goshen could surpass it.
He also won the corresponding race last year - so is very much the one to beat.
Goshen is a bit of an enigma.
He’s looked brilliant on at least a couple of occasions - but wayward on at least a couple of others !
Going right handed seems to be essential to him - but soft ground is also very important.
He got both when destroying Song for Someone over course and distance, last season - and on that form would be very hard to beat.
The issue tho, is the prospect of good ground.
He was well behind Honeysuckle at Punchestown in the spring - and that was on yielding ground. If the ground is even quicker tomorrow, I can’t see him beating Sceau Royal.
By contrast, quick ground would suit Belfast Banter - and he is the other one of interest in the race.
He was a big improver last season and ran well until falling at the last on his reappearance at the Listowel festival.
Assuming he has recovered from that, then I would expect him to run well.
However, he will need a life time best if he is going to beat Sceau Royal.
Aintree
1:08
The Pertemps qualifiers come thick and fast at this time of year.
There was one at Newbury on Wednesday - and this is another…
Again, it looks a tough puzzle to solve - though there is an obvious starting point in the shape of South Terrace.
He’s a Dr Newland trained improver, who showed a good attitude when winning a fair race at Uttoxeter over the summer.
He has been raised 6lb for that - but it still leaves him on a mark of 127, which looks very workable.
Fitness and stable form are a bit of a concern - but the horse certainly has the right profile for a race of this type.
Act of God is disputing favouritism with him in the early market - and that is also understandable.
He too is a 6 year old and has been brought over for this by Edward O’Grady.
He won his most recent race, on the flat at Gowran - having prior to that, finished a running on fifth, in a fair race at the Listowel festival.
It’s a fact that Irish horses tend to do well in UK handicaps - and despite being hiked 7lb in the ratings by the UK handicapper, he could still prove well in.
Plenty of the others are best known as chasers.
Remastered, Diese Aba, The Worlds End and Supreme Escape are all better known for their exploits over fences.
All 4 are making their seasonal debuts and there must be a chance that they are being given pipe openers prior to reverting to the bigger obstacles.
Aquila Sky made his seasonal debut over fences at Uttoxeter last month
That was also his chasing debut - and he struggled a bit with the jumping.
It’s no great surprise to see him returning to hurdles, as he was nicely progressive at the back end of last season.
1:40
Whilst this race won’t be shown live on Terrestrial TV - it’s still a very interesting contest…
Kiltealy Briggs is the one that appeals most - and I did think we might be taking an interest in him, when he opened up at 7/1 yesterday.
However, those odds were quickly cut - and he’s now around half that price.
It still might not be a bad price, as he sets a fair standard - and I struggle to see him not running his race.
However, he faces a number of unexposed rivals and there is a chance that one of them might be able to improve past him…
Your Darling was impressive when making a successful chasing debut at Huntingdon, 3 weeks ago.
It wasn’t a strong race, but he won it well - and it’s anyones guess as to whether an 8lb rating rise will sufficient to stop him.
Beakstown is potentially very interesting, on his return from nearly 2 years off the course.
His last run saw him finish fifth in the novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival.
That was a strong race - and he gets to run from a mark 6lb lower tomorrow.
He’s probably handicapped to win - and Dan Skelton is well capable of readying them first time.
I suspect the market will provide a good guide…
Onchan and Eden Flight are both interesting on their seasonal and chasing debuts.
The former showed fair form in novice hurdles last season - and looks very much the type to improve for a fence.
Eden Flight has his first run for Venetia - having transferred from the stable of Willie Mullins.
That’s an interesting move, particularly as the horse was formerly owned by Susanna Ricci (who also owns the Venetia trained Royal Pagaille).
In truth, the other 3 runners can’t be completely ruled out - so this may be a race to watch…
2:15
Whilst Jonjo has had his horses in fine form, it’s still a bit surprising to see Time to Get up installed the early favourite for this.
He was very progressive last season - but needed all of Uttoxeters 4m2f to win the Midlands Grand National.
It’s hard to see that tomorrows 2m5f will provide a sufficient test of stamina - and I’m more inclined to think it is a pipe opener and a sighter of the big fences…
Hogans Height won this race 2 years ago - and he looks a more suitable place to start when analysing the race.
He’s only run 4 times since and not shown a lot - but as a consequence, gets to run tomorrow off a mark just 4lb higher.
His stable is also in good form - and I suspect he’s been targeted at the race.
In addition to him, Jamie Snowden also runs Thomas Macdonagh.
He’s a second season novice, but a secure jumper (touch wood !).
Hell be making his seasonal debut tomorrow - but ran well enough first time last year.
I suspect the market will be a fair guide to their respective chances, as both look to be in with a decent shout.
Cat Tiger and Senior Citizen have both run well over the course previously - and must have every chance.
That said, their is minimal margin in their current prices…
Sir Jack Yeats looks more of a value play (currently !).
He finished second in the race last year off exactly the same make - and then fifth in the Topham.
He is likely to race prominently and it’s hard to see him finishing out of the frame - the question is simply whether a younger horse will improve past him.
Of the outsiders, then Mac Tottie is the one that interests me most.
He was progressive last season and should be better for a run at Fontwell early last month.
2:50
This race isn’t on terrestrial TV - and it’s another tough one to solve.
Antunes and Arvico Bleu are disputing favouritism in the early market.
The former represents the Skeltons and whilst not obviously well handicapped, he could take a step forward in his second season over fences (particularly if Dan has him primed).
Arvico Bleu took a step forward on his first run for Ewan Whillans.
Previously trained by Henry de Bromhead - he bolted up on his debut for Whillans - and at 25/1 in a 5 horse race !
You have to assume that wasn’t expected - and a 6lb rating rise isn’t overly punitive, if he has improved further for that run.
Gunsight Ridge could really interest me - if I knew he was fit and the race was over half a mile further !
I think he could be a fair bit better than his current handicap mark of 127. However I would expect him to show that over a minimum of 2m4f.
I guess his class might see him through - but I’d be more inclined to take a watching brief.
Espion de Chanet is interesting.
He’s a horse I followed all of last season, during which he won a couple of races.
He won 2 more over the summer - and is clearly still improving.
Whether he’s got the class to be competitive against tomorrows opposition, is open to debate - but it’s very interesting that his trainer, Louise Lyons bring him over from Kilkenny.
I doubt she’s had a runner in England previously, and it’s a fair sized pot, so I suspect he needs to be taken seriously…
3:20
Sommerville Boy won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and he must have every chance of completing the double, tomorrow.
The race has a very similar look to it - and on adjusted ratings, he is the one to beat (just about !).
He won it first time out last year - so the lack of a run shouldn’t be an issue.
That said, the Tom George stable could be in better form…
There must be a chance that Tom Scudamore will get an uncontested lead on him - and if that happens, he could prove hard to pass.
Brewinupastorm was a revelation last year, returned to hurdles after an abortive attempt at chasing.
He hacked up in a handicap at Taunton, before winning the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell and then finishing fifth in a grade 1 at Aintree.
I suspect his chance tomorrow will be determined by his fitness - but if he is ready to do himself justice, then even giving weight all of his rivals, he is probably the one to beat.
Wilde About Oscar is the potential fly in the ointment, on his first try outside novice company.
He had some high class novice form last season - and whilst he will need to improve on that to feature tomorrow, that’s a distinct possibility.
If the Cap Fits and Lisnagar Oscar are both likely to find the trip on the short side, for their first runs of the season; whilst Martello Sky shouldn’t really be good enough, even though she will hold a race fitness advantage over all of her rivals.
1:08
The Pertemps qualifiers come thick and fast at this time of year.
There was one at Newbury on Wednesday - and this is another…
Again, it looks a tough puzzle to solve - though there is an obvious starting point in the shape of South Terrace.
He’s a Dr Newland trained improver, who showed a good attitude when winning a fair race at Uttoxeter over the summer.
He has been raised 6lb for that - but it still leaves him on a mark of 127, which looks very workable.
Fitness and stable form are a bit of a concern - but the horse certainly has the right profile for a race of this type.
Act of God is disputing favouritism with him in the early market - and that is also understandable.
He too is a 6 year old and has been brought over for this by Edward O’Grady.
He won his most recent race, on the flat at Gowran - having prior to that, finished a running on fifth, in a fair race at the Listowel festival.
It’s a fact that Irish horses tend to do well in UK handicaps - and despite being hiked 7lb in the ratings by the UK handicapper, he could still prove well in.
Plenty of the others are best known as chasers.
Remastered, Diese Aba, The Worlds End and Supreme Escape are all better known for their exploits over fences.
All 4 are making their seasonal debuts and there must be a chance that they are being given pipe openers prior to reverting to the bigger obstacles.
Aquila Sky made his seasonal debut over fences at Uttoxeter last month
That was also his chasing debut - and he struggled a bit with the jumping.
It’s no great surprise to see him returning to hurdles, as he was nicely progressive at the back end of last season.
1:40
Whilst this race won’t be shown live on Terrestrial TV - it’s still a very interesting contest…
Kiltealy Briggs is the one that appeals most - and I did think we might be taking an interest in him, when he opened up at 7/1 yesterday.
However, those odds were quickly cut - and he’s now around half that price.
It still might not be a bad price, as he sets a fair standard - and I struggle to see him not running his race.
However, he faces a number of unexposed rivals and there is a chance that one of them might be able to improve past him…
Your Darling was impressive when making a successful chasing debut at Huntingdon, 3 weeks ago.
It wasn’t a strong race, but he won it well - and it’s anyones guess as to whether an 8lb rating rise will sufficient to stop him.
Beakstown is potentially very interesting, on his return from nearly 2 years off the course.
His last run saw him finish fifth in the novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival.
That was a strong race - and he gets to run from a mark 6lb lower tomorrow.
He’s probably handicapped to win - and Dan Skelton is well capable of readying them first time.
I suspect the market will provide a good guide…
Onchan and Eden Flight are both interesting on their seasonal and chasing debuts.
The former showed fair form in novice hurdles last season - and looks very much the type to improve for a fence.
Eden Flight has his first run for Venetia - having transferred from the stable of Willie Mullins.
That’s an interesting move, particularly as the horse was formerly owned by Susanna Ricci (who also owns the Venetia trained Royal Pagaille).
In truth, the other 3 runners can’t be completely ruled out - so this may be a race to watch…
2:15
Whilst Jonjo has had his horses in fine form, it’s still a bit surprising to see Time to Get up installed the early favourite for this.
He was very progressive last season - but needed all of Uttoxeters 4m2f to win the Midlands Grand National.
It’s hard to see that tomorrows 2m5f will provide a sufficient test of stamina - and I’m more inclined to think it is a pipe opener and a sighter of the big fences…
Hogans Height won this race 2 years ago - and he looks a more suitable place to start when analysing the race.
He’s only run 4 times since and not shown a lot - but as a consequence, gets to run tomorrow off a mark just 4lb higher.
His stable is also in good form - and I suspect he’s been targeted at the race.
In addition to him, Jamie Snowden also runs Thomas Macdonagh.
He’s a second season novice, but a secure jumper (touch wood !).
Hell be making his seasonal debut tomorrow - but ran well enough first time last year.
I suspect the market will be a fair guide to their respective chances, as both look to be in with a decent shout.
Cat Tiger and Senior Citizen have both run well over the course previously - and must have every chance.
That said, their is minimal margin in their current prices…
Sir Jack Yeats looks more of a value play (currently !).
He finished second in the race last year off exactly the same make - and then fifth in the Topham.
He is likely to race prominently and it’s hard to see him finishing out of the frame - the question is simply whether a younger horse will improve past him.
Of the outsiders, then Mac Tottie is the one that interests me most.
He was progressive last season and should be better for a run at Fontwell early last month.
2:50
This race isn’t on terrestrial TV - and it’s another tough one to solve.
Antunes and Arvico Bleu are disputing favouritism in the early market.
The former represents the Skeltons and whilst not obviously well handicapped, he could take a step forward in his second season over fences (particularly if Dan has him primed).
Arvico Bleu took a step forward on his first run for Ewan Whillans.
Previously trained by Henry de Bromhead - he bolted up on his debut for Whillans - and at 25/1 in a 5 horse race !
You have to assume that wasn’t expected - and a 6lb rating rise isn’t overly punitive, if he has improved further for that run.
Gunsight Ridge could really interest me - if I knew he was fit and the race was over half a mile further !
I think he could be a fair bit better than his current handicap mark of 127. However I would expect him to show that over a minimum of 2m4f.
I guess his class might see him through - but I’d be more inclined to take a watching brief.
Espion de Chanet is interesting.
He’s a horse I followed all of last season, during which he won a couple of races.
He won 2 more over the summer - and is clearly still improving.
Whether he’s got the class to be competitive against tomorrows opposition, is open to debate - but it’s very interesting that his trainer, Louise Lyons bring him over from Kilkenny.
I doubt she’s had a runner in England previously, and it’s a fair sized pot, so I suspect he needs to be taken seriously…
3:20
Sommerville Boy won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and he must have every chance of completing the double, tomorrow.
The race has a very similar look to it - and on adjusted ratings, he is the one to beat (just about !).
He won it first time out last year - so the lack of a run shouldn’t be an issue.
That said, the Tom George stable could be in better form…
There must be a chance that Tom Scudamore will get an uncontested lead on him - and if that happens, he could prove hard to pass.
Brewinupastorm was a revelation last year, returned to hurdles after an abortive attempt at chasing.
He hacked up in a handicap at Taunton, before winning the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell and then finishing fifth in a grade 1 at Aintree.
I suspect his chance tomorrow will be determined by his fitness - but if he is ready to do himself justice, then even giving weight all of his rivals, he is probably the one to beat.
Wilde About Oscar is the potential fly in the ointment, on his first try outside novice company.
He had some high class novice form last season - and whilst he will need to improve on that to feature tomorrow, that’s a distinct possibility.
If the Cap Fits and Lisnagar Oscar are both likely to find the trip on the short side, for their first runs of the season; whilst Martello Sky shouldn’t really be good enough, even though she will hold a race fitness advantage over all of her rivals.
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