It’s day 2 of the Winter carnival at Newbury, tomorrow - and day 1 of the Winter festival at Fairyhouse.
It’s also ‘Fighting Fifth’ day at Newcastle - plus there’s NH racing at Doncaster and Bangor.A busy day !
It was good to see a bit of rain falling at Newbury this afternoon - there can be little doubt that it’s needed.
What wasn’t so good was the TVB luck ! - but I save my view on that, for the weekend review !!
There are 8 races on ITV tomorrow afternoon - 5 from Newbury and 3 from Newcastle.
I’ve previewed all 8 - but drawn the line there (there is only one race of interest at Fairyhouse).
The bets tomorrow will be sent at the usual time: Best bets just after 9:00 - Matrix bets around 10:30…
Newbury
1:15
A fascinating race to kick things off - and one in which quite a few can be given a chance…
Kapcorse hacked up in this race, 2 years ago - and should have every chance of doubling up tomorrow, from a mark just 3lb higher.
However, he’s only been seen 3 times since then - most recently in this race 12 months ago, when he was well beaten.
He’s clearly had issues - but if they are behind him, he will be hard to beat.
The fact that Harry Cobden is riding him, in preference to the other Paul Nichols runner (Grand Sancy) suggests connections feel he is capable of putting up a big show.
Kalooki is a horse that I like.
He was impressive when wining over course and distance, just over a year ago.
His performance that day, suggested he might be graded class - but he’s not delivered on that.
In fairness, he’s been running in strong races - though in truth, it’s more been a case of him under-performing.
If he gets things right tomorrow, I could see him going very well - and it’s probably a positive, that it’s his first run of the season (he seems to run best when fresh).
Killer Clown ran a good race to finish second in the Greatwood gold cup, in the spring.
He races tomorrow off exactly the same mark - and should be better for his first run of the season, at Aintree.
He probably sets the standard for the race, and it’s hard to see him not running well…
Ofalltheginjoints, is quite interesting for the Tizzards.
He threatened to be a good horse last season - but like so many in that stable, ended up disappointing.
There was no improvement on his comeback run over hurdles at Uttoxeter in October - but he then ran well to a point, in the Badger Bee chase at Wincanton, 3 weeks ago.
In fact, he looked the most likely winner, turning in - before weakening in the closing stages…
His chance probably rests on the reason for him stopping.
If he still wasn’t fit, I think he could go close tomorrow: however, if he has a breathing issue (and he did stop quite quickly), then he’s unlikely to get home, even over 2 furlongs less.
The most attractive outsider in the field, is Court Master.
He was sent off favourite for this race 12 months ago, but disappointed.
He wasn’t seen again until the spring - but then managed to win a fair race at Kelso.
He disappointed again on his return at Chepstow - but apparently had a breathing issue and has subsequently undergone wind surgery.
If that’s had the desired effect, then I would expect him to run well tomorrow.
1:50
Another competitive handicap (this time over hurdles), and again, a number of the runners can be given a chance…
It’s not surprising to see the unexposed Lecales Article heading the betting, for Nicky Henderson.
He will be making his handicap debut after 3 runs in novice events - and could easily be much better than his opening mark of 125.
On the flip side, tomorrows race will be a very different test for him, and it remains to be seen how he will cope with it.
Calva D’Auge is an admirable front runner, who has struck up a very good relationship with apprentice, Angus Cheleda.
The pair have won 4 of their last 5 races - including last time at Kempton.
A 2lb rise for that win is hardly punitive - though Cheleda has since lost 2lb of his claim, meaning that the horse will effectively be 4lb worse in.
That said, he still must have a reasonable chance, as he could again get an uncontested lead - and has a great attitude.
Masters Legacy won on his seasonal return at Chepstow.
That was a fair race - and again, a 3lb rating rise looks quite lenient.
Masters Legacy is also likely to be suited by tomorrows step up in trip - and just about looks the one to beat…
Glory and Fortune was very impressive when winning the Welsh Champion hurdle by 4 lengths - and whilst he was well beaten in the Greatwood hurdle on his next outing, tomorrows race isn’t as strong.
It’s also over an extra half mile - which I think should suit him - whilst his mark still looks workable.
Ch’tibello is a very interesting one for the Skeltons.
He won the the 2019 County hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - and whilst he’s not won since, he has performed admirably in graded company, on a number of occasions.
He drops back into a handicap tomorrow, off a mark just 1lb higher than he won the Greatwood from - and that makes him a well handicapped horse.
However,is also quite an old horse (he will be 11 in a months time) - so there is a chance that he’s lost some of his ability.
If that’s not the case, he will be hard to beat.
Boreham Bill is the final one of interest.
He won the Lanzarote hurdle in January - and runs tomorrow off a mark just 1lb higher.
I can see tomorrows race being run to suit - and he looked a very good bet at an opening price of 20/1.
However, Tony Calvin picked up on him and tipped him yesterday evening - and as a consequence, that price has now halved !
2:25
Only 4 go to post for this - which is unforgivable for a £50K handicap
In fairness, all 4 are decent - but that’s the least you’d expect for a listed contest…
Soaring Glory heads the market - and looks the one to beat.
He comfortably won the Betfair hurdle, last season - and won a good class Ascot handicap on his return.
He’s edging up the weights - but probably improving more quickly.
It would be no surprise if he ultimately proved himself graded class - but he should be able to take this race first…
That’s assuming it doesn’t get tactical - which is always a danger, with a small field.
Onemorefortheroad is likely to make the running - and as a consequence, has probably got a better chance than his form implies.
If Jack Quinlan can get his fractions right, he might be able to steal it from the front - so the other jockeys will need to be wise to that possibility.
A slow pace certainly wouldn’t suit either Gowel Road or Captain Morgs.
The former won a 2m5f handicap at Cheltenham last time - and was strong up the hill.
Dropping him back in trip seems a slightly odd move - unless connections plan to ride him aggressively.
In fainress, he did win twice over tomorrows course and distance last season, so should have no issue with the test (even if he showed improved form, on his most recent run).
Captain Morgs won at Ascot, just over a week ago.
That was over 2 miles - but he needed every yard of it, to come out on top.
A 6lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh - but a lack of strong pace would almost certainly count against him.
With race pace likely to prove key to the outcome, this is a hard race to bet in before the tapes go up…
3:00
Second season novices dominate the market for the Ladbroke trophy - which is how it should be !
The race is often won by horses on the up, with the potential to develop into Gold cup candidates - and there are 4 who fit that description in this years contest…
Eklat de Rire looks the strongest of the quartet - for Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore.
He was their representative in last seasons RSA chase - and he was still going nicely, when unseating at half way.
We was a comfortable winner on his return at Wexford last month - which should have put him spot on for tomorrow.
Provided the ground isn’t too quick, he’s likely to be hard to beat.
Ontheropes returned after a year on the sidelines, to take the Munster National last month.
That was a good performance - and not unexpected. However, the form isn’t outstanding - and he will need to defy a 12lb higher mark tomorrow.
Enrilo and Fiddleroftheroof, head the home defence.
The former was first past the post in last season Bet365 Gold cup - but was demoted to third in the stewards room.
He was by far the best horse in the race - and the drop back in trip tomorrow, will be in his favour.
Again though, that is good handicap form, rather than potentially top class form.
Fiddlerontheroof is slightly different.
He finished runner up to Monkfish in last seasons RSA chase - and was a good winner off a strong conditions race at Carlise, on his return to action.
He has a touch of class about him - and a rating of 150 doesn’t look overly harsh - particularly with the Tizzard stable going well.
Cloth Cap was a spectacular winner of the race 12 months ago - and looks sure to give it a good go again tomorrow.
However, he will be running from a mark 18lb higher - and that’s a huge ask.
I’ve no doubt he’ll give it his best shot - but you have to think that he will be
vulnerable to better better handicapped - or classier rivals…
Half chances can be given to plenty of the others - but a couple worthy of a mention at big prices are Mister Malarkey and Cloudy Glen.
The former is potentially well handicapped, 3lb below his last winning mark and with a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle.
He finished sixth in the 2019 renewal of the race, and could easily match (or better) that tomorrow.
Cloudy Glen may need a bit more rain to be seen at his best, but if he handles the conditions, I could see him outrunning his odds.
He was a very impressive winner on his seasonal debut last year - and finished second in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham on his final outing of the season.
3:35
The final race on the card is another interesting handicap chase…
Grey Diamond heads the early betting - but I’ll be a bit surprised if that’s still the case, come the off.
He has a chance - but he has little in hand of a few of his rivals and I suspect something will usurp him at the head of the betting.
That something, could easily be Il Ridoto.
He’s only 4 - and it’s very interesting that Paul Nichols is throwing him into open company on his second start for him.
He ran OK on his stable debut at Newton abbot, last month - weakening close home.
He may have needed that run - and the other 3 horses in the race are unbeaten in 4 subsequent races, so the form looks strong.
He will receive an 8lb weight for age allowance from all of his rivals - and that probably makes him the one to beat.
Frero Banbou has a definite chance.
He hacked up at Sandown in March - and then ran really well when fourth in a strong race at Aintree, behind Editeur de Gite.
He finished just in front of Grey Diamond that day - and is 2lb better off tomorrow (which is part of the reason why I doubt Grey Diamond will be sent off fav).
Frero Banbou disappointed on his return at Ascot - but if he’s come on for that run, he is likely to go close tomorrow.
Numitor is another who can be given a chance.
He showed a great attitude when winning on his return at Wetherby - and hasn’t been harshly treated by the handicapper, with a 5lb rise.
He’s a progressive sort and it’s not hard to see him running well again, tomorrow…
Newcastle
1:30
Only 4 runners will go to post for this (hopefully !) - but it’s still a very tough race to call…
Valleres is the obvious one, as a southern trained horse, running in a northern handicap.
I fancied him last time, when he made his chasing debut in a strong looking race at Newbury.
He ran well enough in that race, when third behind Dublin Four - and if that run has brought him on, he should be tough to beat.
However, it’s very hard to quantify the strength of his opponents.
All 3 of them are relatively unexposed 6 year olds, who could be a fair bit better than their current marks.
Tupelo Mississippi finished just under 3 lengths behind Valleres when the pair were placed in a novice hurdle at Ascot in January.
If that form is taken literally, then Tupelo Mississippi should be able to reverse placings on 9lb better terms.
I doubt it’ll be quite that simple - but it would certainly stop me taking a short price about the favourite.
Coopers Cross was a game winner at Sedgefield last time, on his second try over fences.
It’s impossible to accurately assess the form - though it may be significant that Brian Ellison is prepared to take him on again with Tupelo Mississippi, having been responsible for the runner up in that race…
Winds of Fire completes the quartet.
He split Proschema and Captain Tom Cat at Cheltenham in April - and those 2 have both franked the form this season.
By contrast, Winds of Fire got no further than the first on his chasing debut at Hereford at the start of the month, so is hard to assess.
2:05
This looks a strong renewal of the Rehearsal chase.
The Ferry Master has been installed the early favourite, for Sandy Thompson and Craig Nichol.
He finished an honourable fourth in last season Scottish Grand National - and must have every chance tomorrow, from a pound lower mark.
He should come on for his seasonal debut at Mussselburgh, at the start of the month - and looks to have a good chance.
Dingo Dollar is also trained by Thompson - and he finished runner up in last years Scottish national.
He will be 5lb worse off with The Ferry Master tomorrow - but it’s interesting that stable jockey, Ryan Mania, has chosen him over the younger horse.
I wouldn’t expect there to be much between the pair - so at the early prices, Dingo Dollar is probably the better bet.
Aye Right is a thoroughly admirable horse.
He finished runner up in the Ladbroke trophy, on this day 12 months ago - and was also placed in a couple of other top class handicaps.
The issue with him, is that his consistency means that the handicapper cuts him no slack - so whilst he may run well, he’s unlikely to win…
Glen Forsa is very interesting on his second start for Charlie Longsdon.
He ran a huge race on his stable debut at Ascot, at the start of the month.
He went from the font and had most of the field in trouble before the home turn.
However he tired up the straight and only managed to finish fourth.
It was a big effort - and the hope is that it didn’t bottom him.
If he’s in the same form tomorrow - and ridden with a little more restraint - then he could be tough to beat.
Informateur interests me most of the outsiders.
He ran some good races last season - and whilst he was well beaten on his return, that was in a very strong race (in which he had no chance).
I would expect him to perform much better tomorrow, with that run under his belt - particularly as he will be carrying a feather weight (9st 10lb - taking into consideration his jockeys claim)
3:15
If she’s back to her best, it’s hard to see past Epatante in this.
She won the 2020 Champion hurdle - and looked better than ever, when taking this race 12 months ago.
However, she then disappointed when beaten by Silver Streak in the Christmas hurdle - and whilst there was no disgrace in losing her crown to Honeysuckle, she was also beaten by Sharjah (the horse she had beaten in the previous years Champion).
She again finished behind the same two horses at Punchestown - seemingly confirming that she wasn’t as good as she had been…
Still, being the third best hurdler around isn’t a bad achievement - even if you were once the best !
She will receive the 7lb mares allowance tomorrow, from both Silver Streak and Sceau Royal - and whilst they are admirable performers, neither one is from the very top drawer.
Monmiral might be.
He’s only 4 - but was unbeaten in his juvenile campaign and won the grade 1 at Aintree on his final outing.
He comfortably beat Adagio that day - and that one came out and ran a cracker, when runner up under top weight in the Greatwood hurdle.
That suggested last seasons juveniles were decent - precisely how good, we are likely to find out tomorrow…
1:30
Only 4 runners will go to post for this (hopefully !) - but it’s still a very tough race to call…
Valleres is the obvious one, as a southern trained horse, running in a northern handicap.
I fancied him last time, when he made his chasing debut in a strong looking race at Newbury.
He ran well enough in that race, when third behind Dublin Four - and if that run has brought him on, he should be tough to beat.
However, it’s very hard to quantify the strength of his opponents.
All 3 of them are relatively unexposed 6 year olds, who could be a fair bit better than their current marks.
Tupelo Mississippi finished just under 3 lengths behind Valleres when the pair were placed in a novice hurdle at Ascot in January.
If that form is taken literally, then Tupelo Mississippi should be able to reverse placings on 9lb better terms.
I doubt it’ll be quite that simple - but it would certainly stop me taking a short price about the favourite.
Coopers Cross was a game winner at Sedgefield last time, on his second try over fences.
It’s impossible to accurately assess the form - though it may be significant that Brian Ellison is prepared to take him on again with Tupelo Mississippi, having been responsible for the runner up in that race…
Winds of Fire completes the quartet.
He split Proschema and Captain Tom Cat at Cheltenham in April - and those 2 have both franked the form this season.
By contrast, Winds of Fire got no further than the first on his chasing debut at Hereford at the start of the month, so is hard to assess.
2:05
This looks a strong renewal of the Rehearsal chase.
The Ferry Master has been installed the early favourite, for Sandy Thompson and Craig Nichol.
He finished an honourable fourth in last season Scottish Grand National - and must have every chance tomorrow, from a pound lower mark.
He should come on for his seasonal debut at Mussselburgh, at the start of the month - and looks to have a good chance.
Dingo Dollar is also trained by Thompson - and he finished runner up in last years Scottish national.
He will be 5lb worse off with The Ferry Master tomorrow - but it’s interesting that stable jockey, Ryan Mania, has chosen him over the younger horse.
I wouldn’t expect there to be much between the pair - so at the early prices, Dingo Dollar is probably the better bet.
Aye Right is a thoroughly admirable horse.
He finished runner up in the Ladbroke trophy, on this day 12 months ago - and was also placed in a couple of other top class handicaps.
The issue with him, is that his consistency means that the handicapper cuts him no slack - so whilst he may run well, he’s unlikely to win…
Glen Forsa is very interesting on his second start for Charlie Longsdon.
He ran a huge race on his stable debut at Ascot, at the start of the month.
He went from the font and had most of the field in trouble before the home turn.
However he tired up the straight and only managed to finish fourth.
It was a big effort - and the hope is that it didn’t bottom him.
If he’s in the same form tomorrow - and ridden with a little more restraint - then he could be tough to beat.
Informateur interests me most of the outsiders.
He ran some good races last season - and whilst he was well beaten on his return, that was in a very strong race (in which he had no chance).
I would expect him to perform much better tomorrow, with that run under his belt - particularly as he will be carrying a feather weight (9st 10lb - taking into consideration his jockeys claim)
3:15
If she’s back to her best, it’s hard to see past Epatante in this.
She won the 2020 Champion hurdle - and looked better than ever, when taking this race 12 months ago.
However, she then disappointed when beaten by Silver Streak in the Christmas hurdle - and whilst there was no disgrace in losing her crown to Honeysuckle, she was also beaten by Sharjah (the horse she had beaten in the previous years Champion).
She again finished behind the same two horses at Punchestown - seemingly confirming that she wasn’t as good as she had been…
Still, being the third best hurdler around isn’t a bad achievement - even if you were once the best !
She will receive the 7lb mares allowance tomorrow, from both Silver Streak and Sceau Royal - and whilst they are admirable performers, neither one is from the very top drawer.
Monmiral might be.
He’s only 4 - but was unbeaten in his juvenile campaign and won the grade 1 at Aintree on his final outing.
He comfortably beat Adagio that day - and that one came out and ran a cracker, when runner up under top weight in the Greatwood hurdle.
That suggested last seasons juveniles were decent - precisely how good, we are likely to find out tomorrow…
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